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Purdue vs. Michigan: Predictions and Game Thread

JohnnyDoeBoiler

JohnnyDoeBoiler

All-American
Sep 23, 2013
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West Lafayette
Current Numbers:
Michigan:
RPI: 36th
Kenpom: 27th
BPI: 23rd
AP: 25th
Coaches: 25th

Purdue:
RPI: 11th
Kenpom: 2nd
BPI: 2nd
AP: 3rd
Coaches: 3rd

ESPN's BPI currently places Purdue as a 92.5% favorite
Vegas places Purdue as an 11 point favorite

Important Stats:
Michigan:
Offensive Scoring: 74.5 ppg (164th)
Defensive Scoring: 62.5 ppg (11th)
Turnover Margin: +4.3 (12th)
3pt FG %: 36.8 (94th)
Rebound Margin: +1.5 (155th)
Total Blocks: 74 (132nd)
Total Assists: 336 (35th)

Purdue:
Offensive Scoring: 84.8 ppg (19th)
Defensive Scoring: 62.2 ppg (10th)
Turnover Margin: +1.8 (85th)
3pt FG %: 43.7 % (3rd)
Rebound Margin: +4.9 (57th)
Total Blocks: 125 (7th)
Total Assists: 384 (7th)

Purdue: 78
Michigan: 71
 
This game will be similar to the Louisville game this year. Tough D, tough shots all game, back and forth.. Home team comes out on top. 67-60 Boilers
 
Edwards and Edwards go off for 50 combined in the first half. Um adjusts and Haas eats them alive in the second. Purdue by 15.
 
BoilerDaddy said:
I think that ranking is a little misleading since Purdue forces so many more missed shots than it misses itself. Purdue has an offensive rebounding percentage of 28.6% which is 128th and a defensive rebounding percentage of 75.0% which is 89th.
Click to expand...

yes....tend to agree....it's the FG% defense that's the big driver. However, JMHO, I think the Boilers are holding it together on the glass better than expected. Vincent Edwards, particularly, and the back-court committee (kudos to Nojel Eastern here when he's in the game) have led to that. It's still a vulnerability, but the overall defense so far has still been more effective. Great test tonight for the Boilers.
 
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Purdue 74 - 67. Harbaugh goes off about the heat in the visitor's locker room and the lack of an ambulance on the sideline after the game.
 
Prediction: Tough game. 72-70 Purdue. Purdue won't be seriously tested again until OSU, unless they have an uncharacteristicly dreadful shooting night.
 
Tactically: Do you think we switch all screens the entire game? I know Michigan is preparing for that and will attack and drive (or shoot the 3) from whoever Haas ends up on.

I personally think we need to avoid having the same defensive philosophy/strategy the entire game. Switch it up. Spend 10 minutes switching all screens. Then have Haas/Haarms stick only on Wagner and let other guys switch for 10 minutes. Then switch back or do something else. I believe we can't let Michigan get comfortable executing their offense. I feel like when they are comfortable in what to expect from our defense, they will make good, quick decisions and run efficient offense on us - like they did in the 2nd half of the game in Ann Arbor (once they adjusted to our defensive strategy). Just my 2 cents.

Do you agree/disagree?
 
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Purdue pulls away late and wins by 12-15. Then again these seniors could come out like gangbusters again , wouldn’t shock me. It’s like they have a different gear
 
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I posted this in another thread... but I really think UM will be playing catch up all game. In Mackey they will not be allowed to mug Haas down low all game like they did in Crisler. Their bigs will be in foul trouble imo which will negate Wagner more than the 'switching' strategy issue.

At UM we ran double digit leads multiple times and forced them to come back on us, then the home crowd got behind them and helped feed the confidence of their young team. It will be completely the opposite in Mackey. When Purdue goes on a run and gets a double digit lead they will struggle to keep pace. I really believe we will keep them at arms length all game and they will close a little at the end... making the score look closer than it really was.

Boiler Up!
 
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klmLB said:
Tactically: Do you think we switch all screens the entire game? I know Michigan is preparing for that and will attack and drive (or shoot the 3) from whoever Haas ends up on.

I personally think we need to avoid having the same defensive philosophy/strategy the entire game. Switch it up. Spend 10 minutes switching all screens. Then have Haas/Haarms stick only on Wagner and let other guys switch for 10 minutes. Then switch back or do something else. I believe we can't let Michigan get comfortable executing their offense. I feel like when they are comfortable in what to expect from our defense, they will make good, quick decisions and run efficient offense on us - like they did in the 2nd half of the game in Ann Arbor (once they adjusted to our defensive strategy). Just my 2 cents.

Do you agree/disagree?
Click to expand...
3-2 zone with H&H down low.
 
I've said in a couple threads that I believe we win this by 10. I thought there was more than a few times up at Michigan that we could have recovered from the their screens and not made the switch. I believe our team will be fired up behind the noise of our home crowd and we will do better with it this time around. I also think Wagner & Teske will end up in foul trouble limiting their play.

BOILER UP!!!
 
ejs1111 said:
I posted this in another thread... but I really think UM will be playing catch up all game. In Mackey they will not be allowed to mug Haas down low all game like they did in Crisler. Their bigs will be in foul trouble imo which will negate Wagner more than the 'switching' strategy issue.

At UM we ran double digit leads multiple times and forced them to come back on us, then the home crowd got behind them and helped feed the confidence of their young team. It will be completely the opposite in Mackey. When Purdue goes on a run and gets a double digit lead they will struggle to keep pace. I really believe we will keep them at arms length all game and they will close a little at the end... making the score look closer than it really was.

Boiler Up!
Click to expand...

Feeding the post and making them guard Haas is truly so important isn't it?
  • Haas will usually score efficiently down there (good for us)
  • Make them spend energy and maybe Wagner/Leske picks up some fouls affects their offensive potential (e.g. limiting Wagner's time on floor). (bad for Michigan).
  • More attention down low creates more open space for great, in rhythm 3s from our shooters.
So important to not settle for outside shots early. Gotta first establish the big Haas.
 
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SIBoiler2 said:
3-2 zone with H&H down low.
Click to expand...

Interesting thought. I know many are against zone (I'm neutral) and it would protect Haas from having to chase. I'll play devil's advocate (even tho I know we won't actually play or even practice much zone), but my 2 cents on Michigan is that they often have 4-5 guys behind the 3 pt line. I think they'd get all kinds of open looks from 3 against a zone (overload one side and pinball pass to find the open guy eventually).
 
IndySouthsider said:
Is that right? Purdue is #57 in rebounding differential?
Click to expand...

That surprises me too. But we force bad shots instead of turnovers, which lead to a lot of defensive rebounds for us. We're still getting out offensive-rebounded 9.4 to 11 per game.
 
I would not switch Haas. Michigan will be ready for it.

I don’t think Beilein will want to give up open looks from 3 and will make Haas beat them. I say pound it inside and try to get Wagner in foul trouble.
 
Tough game ahead........but I know PU is the better team, and PU is at Mackey tonight baby!! PU knows it is playing a good club tonight. Boiler Up!!!

Oh yeah, the Big Ten is down this year. Haters keep hating.
 
TopSecretBoiler said:
its one louder
Click to expand...
1476834323605.jpg
 
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