What I thought was unreasonable is that in your worst case scenario, you didn't pick ANY games on the schedule as a for sure loss? I understand that in a best case scenario, you would assume a chance in all of those. But in worst case, I would expect you to at least have one game that you straight up call a loss. For example, if I were to look at a worst case for Indiana, I would straight up say that away games at MSU, Wisconsin and Nebraska are losses....because it's worst case.
I'm not really debating your 18 win number, just your listing of the schedule results. Not even sure how you counted 18. If I count only the ones where you said "W", and count none of the coin flips, I still count 19 wins. As I said earlier in this thread, my worst case for Purdue would probably be 17 wins, so the 18 number isn't much different than what I think. It just seems that in a worst case scenario some of those games would be expected losses, not just coin flips. And saying that the worst case scenario is a 1% chance of happening.....sounds a little optimistic. You could be right, I'm just saying looking at that schedule of results seems pretty optimistic for being a "worst case".
Edit: After reading your response again, I DO NOT mean to say that 18 wins is more like best case, I meant that the way you estimated what is a for sure win and what is a coin flip, with no for sure losses, is more like a best case. As I stated earlier, my best case for Purdue would probably be 22 wins.