Is Purdue in a disguised February slump?
- Thread starter Boilermaker427
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The only thing in here I'd disagree with is Gillis. Last year, he shot 35.6% from three, including a 9-12 game that accounted for 1/4 of his makes for the year (without that, he was 30.4%). This year, he's at 48.7% from three on about the same volume per game.
He's stepped up big time as a shooter IMO.
Purdue has continued to be exceptional offensively (outside of FT shooting) but has had 2 subpar defensive games (NW and Minnesota) in it's last 5. Not sure I'd call that a slump. If it continues, there might be reason for concern.
what game did you watch? I watched a bench have an EXCELLENT game. Geezus, c'mon man.
Yeah if someone thinks Furst and Morton were “awful”… they don’t know what they’re looking at… but then again you’re debating the guy who wanted Painter fired after losing a S16 game two years ago…
Watch the game. There is more to it than the boxscore.
Also, could the close games have anything to do with poor FT shooting lately? It just felt early in the year when we were hitting our ft's at a high clip we were dominating. Just a thought 🤔
Agree this year is different.
Yes, first half, "C".......but If a 49 pt half while holding the opponent to 33 is our "C" game, that "A" half must be a whopper! Lol
I'm aware. I watched the game. They still did next to nothing, although Morton's defense was better. It's one thing to beat Minnesota at home -- likely will need more in the tournament against a good team on a neutral court!
Outside of Gillis, who on the bench had an EXCELLENT game
Furst was better than he's been, and is the bar is so low for Morton that we're now referring to yesterday's game as EXCELLENT?
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I'd say Morton, Furst and Gillis played solid minutes off the bench. Three positive guys off your bench in any game at any level is great
What exactly are people expecting the 8th guy on the depth chart to do?
Morton doesn't shoot because he is told not to. He's the fifth option for jeebus sakes.
Minnesota lit it up in the first half but they have been a bad three point shooting team all year. They had outpaced their average by halftime. That water will find its level 90% of the time in the second half.
I'd argue the game plan was to give up threes in the first half. They just made them at a rate that was incredible and unsustainable. Adjustments were made and they got thoroughly dominated in the second half.
when will Zaq get out of this free throw funk, is the question I have.
What exactly are people expecting the 8th guy on the depth chart to do?
Morton doesn't shoot because he is told not to. He's the fifth option for jeebus sakes.
Minnesota lit it up in the first half but they have been a bad three point shooting team all year. They had outpaced their average by halftime. That water will find its level 90% of the time in the second half.
I'd argue the game plan was to give up threes in the first half. They just made them at a rate that was incredible and unsustainable. Adjustments were made and they got thoroughly dominated in the second half.
when will Zaq get out of this free throw funk, is the question I have.
Why is it so hard to give credit where it is due? Without the play of Morten, Gillis, and Furst, Purdue probably loses. That's hardly a low bar. You seem to be twisting too much to support a false narrative.
All I'm saying is having a guard on the floor who can't shoot (Morton) has the potential to rear it's head in a big way come NCAAT time. It's one thing to beat up on mediocre B1G teams, but we've seen the conference struggle in the tournament quite a bit. Really hoping it doesn't burn Purdue like it has in the past.
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I am giving credit. Furst played well, and was good to see him have an impact again.
Gillis was excellent. I love his game, and he's probably Purdue's best pure shooter when he's set.
Morton, to me, is a high-effort player and he was fine yesterday, but I still worry about his impact come tournament time. He's not a good shooter, he's not some lockdown defender like Kramer (although he can be good in spots, like against a team like Iowa), and teams will certainly dare him to shoot come tournament time.
I've been a vocal supporter of getting Colvin more minutes, but he wasn't great yesterday and his help-defense wasn't good.
Heide has a lot of potential with his athleticism, and has been solid in certain spots, but I wouldn't say he's super impactful YET.
Morton has recently mostly played in 10-12 minutes on range on average with the exception of the Northwestern game. The hope I think Painter has is that Heide could take more of those minutes playing a good two way game. After some positive movement by Heide , that has stalled a bit, but if he picks it up Heide could take more of Morton’s minutes. Colvin, sorry, he may have a moment yet to come, but not major minutes. Btw if someone does take Morton’s minutes, he’d be ok with it.
I think tomorrow @OSU will tell us a lot on your theory. Not sure if we'll see an OSU that has quit or has a fresh sense of urgency with Holtman out, but if Purdue is focused and brings their best they should roll either way against this team. If it's close or they mess around and lose I'll be right there with you that they might be starting to fade at the wrong time.
"Morton was fine yesterday" BUT,.... and then two sentences knocking him and his contributions to this top 2 team.
Give it a rest.
Maybe try enjoying the ride.....
@BoilerDeac
“Purdue looked awful with the backups in last night, other than Gillis”.
Furst and Morton were hardly “awful”. That’s why you have folks questioning if you even watched the game.
Did the offense look meh without our 2 Naismith POY Finalists in? Well…duh. That's like wondering why the Lakers aren’t scoring as well without LeBron and AD in the game.
You’re right, and I’ve clarified. Furst and Morton played well, but the offense still struggled when they were on the floor. I still don’t want Morton playing more than 10 mins come NCAAT time.
Yes, naturally, when Smith and Edey are out, the offense will struggle.
If Purdue runs into a team with a player who is on fire, he may not follow your script regarding Morton. And Purdue fans will likely be happy with the outcome.
Maybe not, but my hope would be that Lance Jones would be the first choice to defend a team’s best player.
Lance can guard anyone Morton can, and then some. Yes, he’s shorter, but he’s quicker, more athletic, and as strong if not stronger.
However, I could see Morton playing over Loyer if a team has three guards that Purdue somehow can’t contain.
I’m very much enjoying the ride. These things aren’t mutually exclusive.
I don’t know about you, but I haven’t forgotten about the past tournament blunders, including last year’s loss to a 16 seed.
Sorry if I’m proceeding with a wholistic mindset and proceeding with a bit of caution as it relates to rolling out a player who is essentially a black hole on offense.
Your statements have already been proven wrong this year, the most recent game being an example. Why do you think Jones didn't stop Christie? He was absolutely killing us.
Be clear. Are you blaming last season's loss on Morton? It's hard to think your approach is holistic when you specifically focus on one aspect of one player.
Great song.
God have mercy on the man who doubts what he's sure of.
If ever there was the most Purdue post, it might be this OP. That sounds like years of Purdue fandom just looking to manage expectations while awaiting the inevitable heartbreak. I’m just as guilty of this as anybody at times. I hope the team has more confidence than some of their fans.
Some reasons I still believe this team is, in fact, different:
1. 3 point percentage is vastly improved and is still good in recent games
2. They have played some games recently that we’re not necessarily their best basketball and still won overcoming things that might have doomed them last year (turnovers, poor free throw shooting)
3. Lance is better than Jenkins. No disrespect to Dave, but Lance is a starter as opposed to a role player meaning the transfer came in and the coaching staff felt he was an upgrade at that position. He seems to fit right in and appears to have the same hunger to win without the emotional scars that the guys who lost to FDU have.
4. Gillis. He’s been great off the bench. It just works. By this point last season he was not shooting the 3 well. He still is this season and just showed it against Minnesota on Thursday.
5. These are still college kids. Focus may not be locked in at all times during the regular season. When you look at the non-conference schedule and the murderer’s row that they beat and then you get into some Big Ten slugfests it might wear you down a little and you might not get up for every opponent like they get up for you. Being #1 or 2 and leading the conference means always having a target on your back and taking every team’s best shot because you might be the win that gets them in the NCAAT field. That’s got to be tough.
6. Free throws are a bit concerning as of late, but those can be practiced and improved. Like a golfer with the yips putting. Just have to find that stroke again.
7. They seem to have more of an “edge” this year. Edey’s stare downs, his six shooters, Braden flexing, Lance telling Iowa to be quiet, etc. It’s good to see maybe for once they’re not just a group of “nice boys”.
8. They are taking care of business. They’ve already avenged several losses from last season already. The biggest revenge will be for the 16 seed that gets fed to them.
9. If, as the OP hypothesizes, it is just a down year for all of college basketball outside of UConn and Purdue, then I expect to see them in the Finals and I like the way Purdue matches up.
I love this team! Keep the faith, fellow Boilers.
Some reasons I still believe this team is, in fact, different:
1. 3 point percentage is vastly improved and is still good in recent games
2. They have played some games recently that we’re not necessarily their best basketball and still won overcoming things that might have doomed them last year (turnovers, poor free throw shooting)
3. Lance is better than Jenkins. No disrespect to Dave, but Lance is a starter as opposed to a role player meaning the transfer came in and the coaching staff felt he was an upgrade at that position. He seems to fit right in and appears to have the same hunger to win without the emotional scars that the guys who lost to FDU have.
4. Gillis. He’s been great off the bench. It just works. By this point last season he was not shooting the 3 well. He still is this season and just showed it against Minnesota on Thursday.
5. These are still college kids. Focus may not be locked in at all times during the regular season. When you look at the non-conference schedule and the murderer’s row that they beat and then you get into some Big Ten slugfests it might wear you down a little and you might not get up for every opponent like they get up for you. Being #1 or 2 and leading the conference means always having a target on your back and taking every team’s best shot because you might be the win that gets them in the NCAAT field. That’s got to be tough.
6. Free throws are a bit concerning as of late, but those can be practiced and improved. Like a golfer with the yips putting. Just have to find that stroke again.
7. They seem to have more of an “edge” this year. Edey’s stare downs, his six shooters, Braden flexing, Lance telling Iowa to be quiet, etc. It’s good to see maybe for once they’re not just a group of “nice boys”.
8. They are taking care of business. They’ve already avenged several losses from last season already. The biggest revenge will be for the 16 seed that gets fed to them.
9. If, as the OP hypothesizes, it is just a down year for all of college basketball outside of UConn and Purdue, then I expect to see them in the Finals and I like the way Purdue matches up.
I love this team! Keep the faith, fellow Boilers.
I recall Jones guarding their point guard. I thought that Jones quietly played a good game.
Well put. I'll just add that every team goes through ups and downs over the course of a season. Purdue's downs are more visible than their ups simply because of where this team started back in October.
I agree that this team looks much better equipped to withstand the February and March challenges than last year's team. This year's team is more experienced, more mature, more poised, and more confident. Braden Smith, Mason Gillis, and Lance Jones are MUCH better. I think Trey is, too.
I don't think they'll win every game between now and April 8. There are lots of tough challenges left. But I don't think they'll unravel, either.
Through 14 B1G games this year Purdue has lost the same number of games as last year, but has really only had two other games that were really that close. Even the Illinois game wasn't as close as the final 5 point margin. The only game we won that was really in jeopardy in the last minute or so was the overtime win against Northwestern.
Through 14 B1G games last year we had lost two games but of the 12 games we had won, 5 of them we won by 5 points or less. Four were 1 possession games. On top of that we still hadn't faced the toughest part of the schedule.
I can see us possibly losing one more B1G game (at Illinois?) but I can't see this team losing 3 out of their last 6 B1G games.
It all starts with a strong, focused effort in Columbus today. They better be ready for anything.
I want to believe this team is different, I really do. I definitely see an improved resolve to get the job done in March, at times. More times than in the last few years.
It would be really great if this team can make a good run this season and play in April. What doesn’t help me is watching things like yesterday’s bracket preview show, from which Purdue was given the # 1 overall seed primarily based on their non-conference wins, and then listening to dumb ass talking heads like Seth Davis and many other game announcers during yesterday’s games, stating that they believe UConn was the best team in the nation. None of those idiots ever giving Purdue their due, to my liking. I guess it just comes down to Purdue making believers of many of us this Match/April, shutting up the national know-it-all naysayers and helping Purdue fans like me, to forget the past heartbreaks with a long last breakthrough.
It would be really great if this team can make a good run this season and play in April. What doesn’t help me is watching things like yesterday’s bracket preview show, from which Purdue was given the # 1 overall seed primarily based on their non-conference wins, and then listening to dumb ass talking heads like Seth Davis and many other game announcers during yesterday’s games, stating that they believe UConn was the best team in the nation. None of those idiots ever giving Purdue their due, to my liking. I guess it just comes down to Purdue making believers of many of us this Match/April, shutting up the national know-it-all naysayers and helping Purdue fans like me, to forget the past heartbreaks with a long last breakthrough.
Not worried about UConn or Houston’s success at all. By all indications they will both be the opposite side of the bracket in the East and South. If Purdue faces one of them in the finals, I’ll worry about them then.
I feel like what we are sensing is that Zach has been struggling a bit with his shooting touch recently. He’s still the most impactful player in the country, but not by the same margin as he was at the beginning of this current winning streak. To that I say that Purdue has been winning anyway and I fully expect him to get back on track.
Agree, we just won't know until we know and anyone who thinks they have a definitive answer one way or the other is kidding themselves. There are teams that go into the tournament playing well and get knocked out early and teams like the 2018-2019 Boilers that seem to limp into the tournament (losing to MN twice in their last three games) and turn it on when the bright lights come on.
I'll hope for the best and try not to stress out too much or read too much into anything until we hit the NCAAT. Unless they lose today, then I'm calling for MP to be fired and burning the place down.
Frankly, I am not worried about UConn or Houston right now as well. If our Boilers can get to the Final Four and meet and lose to one of those teams then, that will not be bad. Now, if Purdue makes the FF along with 2, 4 and 7 seeds, that would be another golden opportunity failed on.
Analytics? I’ve spoken a ton about Kenpom in years past. In those seasons, Purdue has faded, especially the defensive ranking.
The magic formula for a National Championship seems to be a Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense.
Delta ~31.
Avg Offense 121.
Average Defense 90.
Purdue plays “the percentages” on defense, not a lockdown / chance taking / swarming / turnover causing “stopper” type defense.
I personally don’t like seeing the opposition shoot (and often miss) open 3’s, It works for most games, but you have Nebraska, Northwestern, and 1H Minnesota.
So far, the KenPom is stronger than it’s been in years past and the offense is more dynamic.
Currently, through Sat, Feb 17.
+30.53 (3rd),
125.5 (2nd) offensively,
95.0 (19th) defensively
I wrote the following back on Jan 22.
CURRENT TIDBITS:
- 17-2 record
- KenPom of +30.25 (ranked #2 with 125.9 on offense), (ranked #13 with 95.6 on defense)
- shooting 3's at .393 is better than previous seasons. (.322 in 2022-23, .384 in 2021-22)
- Purdue's pace of play has improved from previous seasons of 68.8, 65.9 with this season at 72.7.
- other numbers such as TO's per game are relatively the same.
- Purdue basketball has scored 80+ in 14/19 games and averaging 85.1 ppg scored, 69.4 ppg given up.
FUTURE RESULTS:
- Purdue has struggled February onward the last two seasons. 3's that were falling earlier in the season, were not falling later in the season. Purdue started to really struggle to score and the defense was getting worse. I would suggest that the teams results through all of February will be indicative of the March success.
- still not sold on the defense, I expect their rating to get worse as the season progresses. The system has its flaws but everyone knows that the guards can (and have) got picked on via switches/isolation. That's where Loyer has to continue to hold his own on offense to counter teams that attack his defense. His late season struggles last season are well documented.
- Painter is using Morton as his defensive stopper with 13 minutes/game, but Morton's shooting is struggling. Teams will utilize that on defense.
- with that said, Purdue has a different dynamic with Lance Jones that it did not consistently have in previous seasons. I am really shocked Painter does not rest Smith more (highest minutes/game and 3 more more than next highest) and let Jones/team practice taking the ball up more.
What if Smith has an off day, in foul trouble, or just tires out due to the season, etc? I'll be interested to watch that. Plus Smith helps Purdue's offense with that mid-range and drive to the basket attack, will his energy remain for the rest of the season?
SUMMARY:
- the numbers and ratings right now are in line with a deep NCAA run. Purdue's February onward results will go a long way to showing if that deep NCAA run will happen or if Purdue players seem to get "tired legs". I expect the defensive ratings to regress (which would pull them out of NC contention) as teams play more ISO/switches and pull Edey out to the 3 point line.
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