Ceiling is similar to last year's regular season in my opinion. The difference is, last year had a key injury in the post season and they weren't built athletically to make a lot of noise outside of Carsen, who is back. I think 22-30 wins is reasonable expectation, finishing 1-3 in the conference with an elite 8 run. So ceiling imo would be 30 wins, win the conference and an elite 8 (but as we saw last year, luck and matchups can get a team into the championship so that's always a possibility).
Worst case scenario, and that is if everything goes wrong (let's call this the less than .01% chance), 18 wins, no post season.
I would say this team lands much closer to the ceiling. Carsen, Improved Eastern, improved Haarms, EB, and Wheeler should have this team in contention for the Big and in the top 25 (or very close) all year. By the end they should be clicking and that is exactly when you want to be clicking.