Floor To Ceiling

[mathboy]

You could very well be right about depth. The issue is that those 5 subs have never logged a minute at the collegiate level. While I think these guys will be good down the road, I'm not seeing any impact players this year out of that group outside of potentially Wheeler. It's just my opinion though. We will find out in a couple months.

My 'depth' comment directly related to the comparison between the state of the 2011 team vs the 2018 team. I do agree that real depth has yet to be proven for the 2018 team on the court.

I want guys off the bench that are not just there 'not to screw up'. I want guys off the bench eager to score. I want the opponents to think "Oh crap! He is coming in!".

 

[northside100]

If I recall correctly, that 2011 team has some similarities to our current team. LJ had a quick first step that few defenders could match, but LewJack was the only man to drive the ball consistently. Barlow was on that team, bit he seemed to often help the opponents as much as his home team with dumb decisions. It seemed a few of the other guys could shoot, but that was about it.

I do see some similarities in the physical size and athleticism of Eastern and Barlow, but Eastern plays much, much smarter ball. I see similarities between Hummel and Boudreau in that they are both cagy players who put blue color work-ethic into their game. Hummel is the much more proven player at this point, but he was hobbled a bit that year, and not 100%. So does Evan at 100% = Hummel at 80%?

LewJack vs Carsen is no contest. Lew was good, but Carsen is a much better player who is far more versatile. Here is the big difference: the 2011 team had no one to match up to Haarms. The combo of Haarms and Boudreaux is far better than Hummel and who ever tried to play center on the 2011 team (I was never that impressed with Sandi).

That brings us to the 5th man on this year's team. If it's Cline, then I think we need to look at T. Johnson or Ryne Smith as the best comparison. Cline won't be forced to play outside his comfort zone like TJ, but I suspect TJ was the better player.

Okay, so then where do Wheeler or Sasha fit in the comparison? Dow, Hunter and Williams are good enough to play. Look at the 2011 roster, remove the starters, and the real issue jumps out - depth! I think the 2018 version of the Purdue Boilermakers is significantly better than the 2011 version. Just my 2 cents.

If EB this year is close to Hummel was as a senior this team will be SALTY! Robbie was not the same athlete as a senior but was a heck of a player.

 

[lbodel]

I think I missed the part about getting to 22 wins before the BIG tourney. I read it as at tourney selection time. Purdue will need closer 24+ wins pre-NCAA to get to 5 seed.

Also, let's remember Nebraska last year - they had 22 wins going into the BTT - didn't get an NCAA bid.

A big part of it is that they had one win against an NCAA Tournament team last year and a couple bad losses in non-conference play. The other part was it was a semi-quirky year in the Big Ten with Minnesota having problems and Maryland having lots of injury issues (although I'm not sure if they would have been more than a 7-10 seed w/no injuries).

I expect the Big Ten to be better and deeper conference, but I still don't think it will be as strong as we've seen it - I don't think it's going to be dramatically improved.

Purdue has to avoid bad losses and it's going to need to get some good wins along the way. Painter's typically done well developing road-hardy teams - this year will be very important for that stat.

 

[lbodel]

I don't have any stats to support this (I'm sure they're out there, I'm too busy or lazy to find them), but suspect it's very rare for a team to return an all american and three other guys who played signficant minutes to not have a successfull season (which for most of MP's time at Purdue has been at top 4 finish in the conference).

I understand that the stats of the other guys coming back are less than impressive. I understand that last year's 30 win team lost a ton of production. I have a hard time believing that Matt doesn't have the guys who are back dialed in to the team first mentality or that there won't be enough guys who "get it" from a team defense perspective that the new guys will hold their own on D or sit. If you tell me that this team needs another guy besides Carsen that they can go to when they need a bucket, I'd agree with you. If Matty H, Nojel or Evan B. can become that guy I think this team is in the hunt for a conference championship.

I could certainly be wrong, but if I were a gambler I'd lay heavy money on this Purdue team exceeding 20 wins in the regular season. While I'd love to see more top 50 recruits on this roster, MP has done as good a job as any of developing talent. This season will be his biggest coaching challenge since the baby boilers left and showed that while they'd had very good teams, MP had not yet build a program. I think Matt has now built a program, we'll find out in the next few months.

Two uneasy things:

1. I don't know if I'd describe us having 3 players who played "significant minutes" coming back in addition to Carsen. Haarms and Cline - sure. Not sure I'd label anyone else's as "significant". It's experience, sure, but significant minutes would be 15 min....closer to 20 - when you're looking at replacing 4 starters.

2. Returning Carsen is huge obviously - BUT it's also not a slam dunk. Carsen has had the incredible cast around him in his first two years to develop to the player he is today - i.e. teams haven't been able to focus on him defensively. This year, he comes back after a stellar year - but he faces challenges. Teams WILL throw everything at him and will try to frustrate him and coax him into taking bad shots (something he's dramatically improved on, but still has crept up occasionally). He doesn't have 3 other guys around him shooting 40% from 3, he doesn't have a proven center that can draw double teams, he isn't playing with guys who had played with for 2 years - and the 4 other guys had played together for 4 years.

I'm excited to see how Carsen does this year. He's going to have to mature as a leader and respond to very different challenges than he has had over the past 2 years. He's hit those challenges out of the park and I hope he continues to do so. But in all honesty, the better year we're having as a team, the fewer points per game he is probably scoring himself.

Two good things:

1. As you mentioned, Painter has shown to be able to put together teams. You've rarely seen a Purdue team either stay stagnant or get worse (barring injury) as a season progresses. You haven't seen Painter teams "fall apart" in conference play. They almost always trend in the right direction. I think this year is somewhat unique to that in he doesn't have a lot of experience - we're used to seeing players develop for four years and this is going to be a team really starting from scratch as a "unit". But if there's one coach that can develop a team, it's Painter.

2. On a similar note, his ability to coach, specifically defensively, will be big this year. We've seen Purdue teams go from "what the" defensively to great by the heart of conference play. This team has a lot of the pieces to be a great defensive puzzle for teams. If we have a solid defense by New Year's, I think we'll be in a pretty good spot. If it's until end of January, it will depend if we've been able to avoid bad losses to see the position we're in.

 

[northside100]

Two uneasy things:

1. I don't know if I'd describe us having 3 players who played "significant minutes" coming back in addition to Carsen. Haarms and Cline - sure. Not sure I'd label anyone else's as "significant". It's experience, sure, but significant minutes would be 15 min....closer to 20 - when you're looking at replacing 4 starters.

2. Returning Carsen is huge obviously - BUT it's also not a slam dunk. Carsen has had the incredible cast around him in his first two years to develop to the player he is today - i.e. teams haven't been able to focus on him defensively. This year, he comes back after a stellar year - but he faces challenges. Teams WILL throw everything at him and will try to frustrate him and coax him into taking bad shots (something he's dramatically improved on, but still has crept up occasionally). He doesn't have 3 other guys around him shooting 40% from 3, he doesn't have a proven center that can draw double teams, he isn't playing with guys who had played with for 2 years - and the 4 other guys had played together for 4 years.

I'm excited to see how Carsen does this year. He's going to have to mature as a leader and respond to very different challenges than he has had over the past 2 years. He's hit those challenges out of the park and I hope he continues to do so. But in all honesty, the better year we're having as a team, the fewer points per game he is probably scoring himself.

Two good things:

1. As you mentioned, Painter has shown to be able to put together teams. You've rarely seen a Purdue team either stay stagnant or get worse (barring injury) as a season progresses. You haven't seen Painter teams "fall apart" in conference play. They almost always trend in the right direction. I think this year is somewhat unique to that in he doesn't have a lot of experience - we're used to seeing players develop for four years and this is going to be a team really starting from scratch as a "unit". But if there's one coach that can develop a team, it's Painter.

2. On a similar note, his ability to coach, specifically defensively, will be big this year. We've seen Purdue teams go from "what the" defensively to great by the heart of conference play. This team has a lot of the pieces to be a great defensive puzzle for teams. If we have a solid defense by New Year's, I think we'll be in a pretty good spot. If it's until end of January, it will depend if we've been able to avoid bad losses to see the position we're in.

I like this post, I think you’re for the most part spot on. Nojel did avaerage 12.6 mpg last year but I agree that it’s a huge jump between what was expected of him last year and his role this year.

I understand what you’re saying about Carsen. In my view he mostly created for himself last year, so I’m not too concerned about him not being able to get good shots again this year. He will draw more double teams this year, he has to be able to get good shots for teammates when that happens and he needs someone else to step up as a legitimate number two scoring threat.

 

[lbodel]

I like this post, I think you’re for the most part spot on. Nojel did avaerage 12.6 mpg last year but I agree that it’s a huge jump between what was expected of him last year and his role this year.

I understand what you’re saying about Carsen. In my view he mostly created for himself last year, so I’m not too concerned about him not being able to get good shots again this year. He will draw more double teams this year, he has to be able to get good shots for teammates when that happens and he needs someone else to step up as a legitimate number two scoring threat.

Truth be told, Haarms and Cline are going to have big jumps too (Cline at least has the experience over time). As some others have pointed out - it's different for a guy like Haarms, who had a very specific duty to come in and do last year vs. be an all-around player for a majority of a game. I think these guys have the capability - but it won't just happen overnight (look at Haarms being thrust into the spotlight last year....has nothing to do with Haarms, just not something that just happens in a blink of an eye as a freshman).

As for Carsen, yes Carsen has created a lot for himself - but when you're faced with a double team, you have to create with your teammates (whether Carsen getting his teammates involved, or his teammates freeing Carsen up). It's a very different role for Carsen and I'm interested to see how he adapts. Like I mentioned, the "worse" his PPG stats are, the better our team is all-around most likely.

 

[Treed1967]

I like this post, I think you’re for the most part spot on. Nojel did avaerage 12.6 mpg last year but I agree that it’s a huge jump between what was expected of him last year and his role this year.

I understand what you’re saying about Carsen. In my view he mostly created for himself last year, so I’m not too concerned about him not being able to get good shots again this year. He will draw more double teams this year, he has to be able to get good shots for teammates when that happens and he needs someone else to step up as a legitimate number two scoring threat.

You are correct sir 12MPG isn’t a tone of experience he returns yet he did play in all 37 games and made some huge impacts in some of those games during the season no matter what it was he was dialed in. He played extremely well later in the season especially at the big 10 tournament so I do believe he knows what’s coming and what’s expected of him considering how different his role will change. Why he has been working his tail off all off season like all the others have to be ready mentally and physically for this upcoming season. To me the only inexperienced they bring to this team is lack of playing together consistently like those seniors did for 4 years and that experience will come once season practice begins and once they play some games as a team and once they just get some games under their belt figuring each other out and everybody getting to no each other on that court I believe we all gonna be surprised what the outcome could potentially be. I can tell you this my son has been putting in WORK on his whole game bcuz he knows he has to be 1 of many to step up being a leader for this young but very talented team while being a scoring threat offensively while still being strong defensively and he is up for this challenge and he’s embraces his new found role bcuz he wants it and he’s gonna do all he can to help this team win a lot of games is his goals. 4 seniors departed 4 return that did play in many games together at times in games so it’s not like they don’t no each other or played at all with each other the difference will be the min on the court they will play more of together that we all can potentially see more of. I’m looking forward to watching this team gel together and become a team once they figure each other out will be a team come big 10 player will be dangerous to play against.