Is Purdue in a disguised February slump?

[Boilermaker427]

So the trend over the past few years is Purdue typically isn't playing their best basketball in February and March. We all know this.

2022:

Feb 10 - got destroyed at Michigan
Feb 13 - Barely squeaked by Maryland at home
Feb 26 - Lost at MSU
March 1 - Lost at Wisconsin

March 13 - Lost B10 Title game to Iowa
March 25- lost to St. Peters

2023:
Feb 4 - Lost at IU
Feb 12- lost at NW
Feb 16 - got obliterated at Maryland
Feb 25 - got beat by IU at home
Mar 2 - struggled to beat the worst Wisconsin team in decades on the road

Struggled to win BTT while playing the 9, 13, and 10 seeds

March 17 - FDU

2024:
Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10)
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson

All this when in the last three weeks: Edey has forgotten how to shoot FTs and has missed a much higher percentage of shots he normally makes. Loyer has put up a string of single digit performances. TKR has been putrid at the line and a non factor most games on offense. I'd have to try to find someone who thinks Purdue has even given a B+ performance in weeks.

That being said, we've won games. And I keep telling myself this year is different, because "we lost those games last year" But at this point, is that because we've grown, or because the B10 is historically bad this year? Outside of Purdue and UConn, most of college basketball is historically down this year, so the same thing happening in the big ten could potentially happen in the NCAAs as well.

But what are peoples opinions? Are we :

1) having our typical February slump and it's masked by the Big Ten being worse than previous years

2) Just getting everyones best shot, so teams can shoot 65+% from 3 some games and either beat or give us a stronger challenge than anticipated.

3) Playing to the level of our competition, like just toying with IU

4) B10 is more of grind and they know enough about Edey to make a plan with various levels of success

5) Something else?

Because I watch these games, and I'm happy they are winning, but they just don't look right. Even Fletch was 1-3 from the line. The only person who has looked more or less their normal self in the past few weeks has been our 6th Man, Gillis. Are we wearing down again and it's being masked by winning results? Do we just have a Feb/March funk every year? Is the B10 just this grinding regardless of talent level?

I feel like i'm having deja vu because every game it's like "well if we made our normal FTs" or "If they made their normal % from 3" this game wouldn't have been close. It's like one of the years with the cubs where it seemed every pitcher in baseball had their best start of the year against the cubs, and everyone just said the pitcher had a great game.......at one point is it the cubs?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, but it just baffles me we can't play up to our capabilities after the calendar turns. And with a road game @ OSU @Mich and @ Ill. and home games against rutgers with an improved offense, a desperate MSU team (that normally doesn't win at Mackey), and Wisconsin at home, I feel like I'm waiting for the inevitable WTF crash to end the year and make the B10 race interesting.

 

[ImRonBurgandy?]

Just saving up for the March run

 

[punaj]

In years past I would have been pissed and nervous at half time of a game like last night. But watching it I felt calm and just assumed they’d come back. This team has so many pieces to make a deep run in March - and they seem to really enjoy playing together. Last night was good for them. Learn to play without Edey a bit, how to come back down at the half, stay composed, lock down a hot shooter in the second half, and more. Here’s hoping for a final four followed by a ncaa championship.

 

[Boiler Buck]

To answer your question in the title........NO.
You are reaching.

 

[DrEss]

In years past I would have been pissed and nervous at half time of a game like last night. But watching it I felt calm and just assumed they’d come back. This team has so many pieces to make a deep run in March - and they seem to really enjoy playing together. Last night was good for them. Learn to play without Edey a bit, how to come back down at the half, stay composed, lock down a hot shooter in the second half, and more. Here’s hoping for a final four followed by a ncaa championship.

I felt the exact same way. I really felt they would get it together and win, especially playing at home. Now, come the middle of March and playing at a neutral site, I hope I am as confident.

 

[Boiler Buck]

In years past I would have been pissed and nervous at half time of a game like last night. But watching it I felt calm and just assumed they’d come back. This team has so many pieces to make a deep run in March - and they seem to really enjoy playing together. Last night was good for them. Learn to play without Edey a bit, how to come back down at the half, stay composed, lock down a hot shooter in the second half, and more. Here’s hoping for a final four followed by a ncaa championship.

Agree. Wasn't nervous at all. Knew they would have a big 43+ second half. Posted it & that's exactly what they did. This team just overcomes.

 

[Boilerball3]

I think this is the criticism that good teams get. We haven't played an A game in a while and are 23-2 with 9 wins in a row.

I'd say this team is different

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

The biggest thing to me to not panic, is that our 3 pt shooting has been consistent and has not dropped besides Rutgers. Painter also played Colvin early in IU game and early in Minnesota game. Which is definitely different than he had been in the middle of the season...so hope that trend continues (even in 2-3 min stretches in first half or early 2nd, get the kid some mins). We are having guys step up to win--Morton last night was terrific in defending Christie. Other times, we have had Braden and Lance step up on offense if Zach wasn't doing well. Loyer hit a huge wide open 3 vs Northwestern. Lance had a huge non scoring day at Rutgers that impacted the outcome of that game (one could say so did his shooting haha). TKR has been a spark to start the 2nd half in the last 3 games...if only he could hit those FTs! And Gillis...maaan, he's been scorchin from 3 and hitting huge shots...hope he can keep that up!!

Additionally...

Counter points to your above 2024 game summaries:

Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10) yeah we took care of business
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)--Rutgers defense is ranked in top 10...everyone has struggled there. Rutgers is looking pretty decent at the moment with Williams back...they're undefeated so far.
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home - Northwestern shot 50% from 3 again and were super physical to dare the refs to call fouls...which they did. Our perimeter defense was not the best this game
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won - "C" game? It was a road game and Braden was pretty good for 39 mins and 45 seconds and same with Lance. He shut down a bigger player in Storr and also shut down Klesmit, who had been on a heater
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win - Zach's 3 put us up 28. I think if he doesn't shoot/hit it, we win by 25+. After he hit it, no one cared about IU making a comeback. Just enamored with Zach hitting a 3. We were playing with our food from the 10 min mark and on.
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson. We came out flat, dealt with Zach being in foul trouble and leaned on one of our best players to guide us through the win, while Morton came up huge on the defensive end. He had a huge loose ball rebound in the 2nd half and stepped up big. I have been a huge proponent of not playing him more than 10-12 min, but if he can continue to step up like that on defense I will gladly shut up about him.

Over this stretch here are our averages per game:
Purdue:
PPG: 85
FG%: 49%
3P%: 44%
FT%: 66% (NOT GOOD, JIM. NOT GOOD)
FTA: 31
RBD: 39
STL: 6
BLK: 3
TO: Just under 10

Opponents:
PPG: 71
FG%: 43%
3PT%: 35%
FT%: 74%
FTA: 13.5
RBD: 27.5
STL: 4.7
BLK: 2
TO: 7.6

I'd say the big things that pop out are us not turning over the other teams much and our FT% over those 6 games. We are still scoring at all levels, rebounding well.

So, with that said, not ready to say we've hit a wall like the past 2 years. I do worry a bit about FT% (especially Zach and TKR)...other guys have been solid. However, guys are all playing their roles and stepping up when others may have an off night. So, encouraged by what I have seen, but of course as a Purdue fan, you're holding your breath, haha. Let's go get an away win in Columbus.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I think this is the criticism that good teams get. We haven't played an A game in a while and are 23-2 with 9 wins in a row.

I'd say this team is different

Exactly...what would be our best "complete" overall game? Would the closest be Arizona?

 

[Gemini95]

Over this stretch here are our averages per game:
Purdue:
FG%: 49%
3P%: 44%
FT%: 66% (NOT GOOD, JIM. NOT GOOD)

Time to start shooting more 3's and playing outside-in.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

So the trend over the past few years is Purdue typically isn't playing their best basketball in February and March. We all know this.

2022:

Feb 10 - got destroyed at Michigan
Feb 13 - Barely squeaked by Maryland at home
Feb 26 - Lost at MSU
March 1 - Lost at Wisconsin

March 13 - Lost B10 Title game to Iowa
March 25- lost to St. Peters

2023:
Feb 4 - Lost at IU
Feb 12- lost at NW
Feb 16 - got obliterated at Maryland
Feb 25 - got beat by IU at home
Mar 2 - struggled to beat the worst Wisconsin team in decades on the road

Struggled to win BTT while playing the 9, 13, and 10 seeds

March 17 - FDU

2024:
Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10)
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson

All this when in the last three weeks: Edey has forgotten how to shoot FTs and has missed a much higher percentage of shots he normally makes. Loyer has put up a string of single digit performances. TKR has been putrid at the line and a non factor most games on offense. I'd have to try to find someone who thinks Purdue has even given a B+ performance in weeks.

That being said, we've won games. And I keep telling myself this year is different, because "we lost those games last year" But at this point, is that because we've grown, or because the B10 is historically bad this year? Outside of Purdue and UConn, most of college basketball is historically down this year, so the same thing happening in the big ten could potentially happen in the NCAAs as well.

But what are peoples opinions? Are we :

1) having our typical February slump and it's masked by the Big Ten being worse than previous years

2) Just getting everyones best shot, so teams can shoot 65+% from 3 some games and either beat or give us a stronger challenge than anticipated.

3) Playing to the level of our competition, like just toying with IU

4) B10 is more of grind and they know enough about Edey to make a plan with various levels of success

5) Something else?

Because I watch these games, and I'm happy they are winning, but they just don't look right. Even Fletch was 1-3 from the line. The only person who has looked more or less their normal self in the past few weeks has been our 6th Man, Gillis. Are we wearing down again and it's being masked by winning results? Do we just have a Feb/March funk every year? Is the B10 just this grinding regardless of talent level?

I feel like i'm having deja vu because every game it's like "well if we made our normal FTs" or "If they made their normal % from 3" this game wouldn't have been close. It's like one of the years with the cubs where it seemed every pitcher in baseball had their best start of the year against the cubs, and everyone just said the pitcher had a great game.......at one point is it the cubs?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, but it just baffles me we can't play up to our capabilities after the calendar turns. And with a road game @ OSU @Mich and @ Ill. and home games against rutgers with an improved offense, a desperate MSU team (that normally doesn't win at Mackey), and Wisconsin at home, I feel like I'm waiting for the inevitable WTF crash to end the year and make the B10 race interesting.

forgot to add to this ... that painter and coaching crew are making adjustments at halftime...and seem to be making good ones this year as opposed to not making many last year, or maybe it's more so the team is executing the adjustments this year over last.

 

[BoilerDeac]

In years past I would have been pissed and nervous at half time of a game like last night. But watching it I felt calm and just assumed they’d come back. This team has so many pieces to make a deep run in March - and they seem to really enjoy playing together. Last night was good for them. Learn to play without Edey a bit, how to come back down at the half, stay composed, lock down a hot shooter in the second half, and more. Here’s hoping for a final four followed by a ncaa championship.

I still worry about this team's depth.

Purdue looked awful with the backups in last night, other than Gillis, who I don't really consider a "backup."

At one point, I think there was a lineup of Loyer, Morton, Colvin, Furst and I can't remember the 5th...but it was awful. Even Hummel said something about the lineup not seeming to work well.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Exactly...what would be our best "complete" overall game? Would the closest be Arizona?

Probably overall - Arizona.

Ist half Marquette and second half Gonzaga were pretty solid....

Different game/match-up style where Purdue still prevailed - Alabama

The four biggest differences I see so far from last year's team:

- Braden Smith much more comfortable looking for his shot (and improvement but not cured of turnovers) and 6th in NCAA in assists per game.

- not as dependent on the Big Fella (Zach Edey), but he is the foundation and usual start of the game plan offense.

- Lance Jones' extra dimensions (breaks, turnover transition, long-range capability).

- 3pt FG shooting (last year Purdue was #281, they are currently 4th)

Now, they still have some of the same weaknesses or match-up issues.....put another way - the strategy/recipe to beat Purdue is similar. A team with a dynamic backcourt/wing who can spread the floor and be effective from long-range and have some ability in the front-court to neutralize Zach Edey. Force turnovers and try to stay as even as possible on the glass. Apply some pressure in the back-court at different times in different ways.

Are there teams who fit that bill? Yes, but not many. I think Purdue is better equipped to handle it this year - doesn't mean they will or could also run into a different type team that plays better THAT game. You never know about foul trouble either, so the depth needs to be there with guys who are ready. The other wildcard is mental and confidence - will the pressure get to them? Don't know.......if it comes down to key FT's, can they convert? No one knows for sure.

We will see.......will be interesting how they handle the stretch run to wrap up the regular season -

@ Ohio State
Rutgers
@ Michigan
Michigan State
@ Illinois
Wisconsin

Some tough and physical tests....are they ready and focused?

No prediction really - see if they can just play to their capabilities and let the chips fall where they may.

 

[Gemini95]

I still worry about this team's depth.

Purdue looked awful with the backups in last night, other than Gillis, who I don't really consider a "backup."

Furst gave a nice lift.

 

[Boiler Buck]

I still worry about this team's depth.

Purdue looked awful with the backups in last night, other than Gillis, who I don't really consider a "backup."

Not sure about that
In H1 when Edey went out MN down 6.
When he came back in MN down still 6.
That's when the MN run happened.

 

[BoilerDeac]

Furst gave a nice lift.

Finally. Unfortunately, he still can't really shoot, but I love his activity level, rebounding, and athleticism.

 

[BoilerDeac]

Not sure about that
In H1 when Edey went out MN down 6.
When he came back in MN down still 6.
That's when the MN run happened.

Heide did nothing, Colvin did nothing, Morton did/does nothing, Furst finally did something.

 

[Boilermaker427]

Counter points to your above 2024 game summaries:

Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10) yeah we took care of business
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)--Rutgers defense is ranked in top 10...everyone has struggled there. Rutgers is looking pretty decent at the moment with Williams back...they're undefeated so far.
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home - Northwestern shot 50% from 3 again and were super physical to dare the refs to call fouls...which they did. Our perimeter defense was not the best this game
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won - "C" game? It was a road game and Braden was pretty good for 39 mins and 45 seconds and same with Lance. He shut down a bigger player in Storr and also shut down Klesmit, who had been on a heater
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win - Zach's 3 put us up 28. I think if he doesn't shoot/hit it, we win by 25+. After he hit it, no one cared about IU making a comeback. Just enamored with Zach hitting a 3. We were playing with our food from the 10 min mark and on.
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson. We came out flat, dealt with Zach being in foul trouble and leaned on one of our best players to guide us through the win, while Morton came up huge on the defensive end. He had a huge loose ball rebound in the 2nd half and stepped up big. I have been a huge proponent of not playing him more than 10-12 min, but if he can continue to step up like that on defense I will gladly shut up about him.

So most were good counter points. And trust me, I'm hoping its not what I said. I was hoping for someone more analytical to tell me I'm wrong and they aren't Feb Slumping.

However, just a few counters to your counter points.

"Everyone" struggling at Rutgers would also be a "Big ten stinks" type of thing. Princeton beat them at home. Illinois destroyed them at home pre-suspension. We are the remaining loss in the 11-3 home record. And this was all before Williams, specifically when we played there. If the Big Ten is not the greatest and Purdue is the only great team, comparing struggles @ Rutgers to other B10 Teams is apples and oranges.

Northwestern is fair criticism but that might be the blueprint in the NCAAs as well. Let's hope other teams don't have the shooters. We just don't have a Wilcher, Buie, Berry, (pick minnesota guard here) that can absolutely go off on you. I guess that's the concern there.

Wisconsin did not look good against us. And I think in most years they are a 4th or 5th place team in the B10. They came of a blown game at Nebraska. They followed up our game by laying an egg in Ann Arbor and getting blown out at Rutgers. They've also lost to Penn State this year before Penn State was playing well. I don't think we played a great game, more like a solid? game. Maybe higher than a "C" but I find that debatable. Wisconsin was unknowingly at the time, in a stretch of really bad basketball. They also went 3 for 19 from 3. A couple more open shots go down (and there were some wide open looks) and that one was a tougher game. Wisconsin could have easily shot like minnesota did tonight.

Fair point about IU, we didn't try the last 10 mins. I guess I just wish they would have because of rivalry hate lol.

Minnesota: We didn't really come out flat. We came out stomping them. Zach got his 2nd foul, went to the bench, and the bench held serve. Zach came back out and they went on like a 25-8 run. Above average three point shooting for them? Absolutely. But we made it worse with sloppy turnovers and easy misses. And we didn't really turn things around until the technical foul. And even then, we race out to a ten point lead and don't keep the foot on the gas. Morton and Gillis did play well though.

honestly the biggest concern in the last few weeks has really boiled down to FTs. One and ones become turnovers and leaving points off the board changes the DNA of some, if not most, of these games.

I do however, share the sentiment above. I wasn't really worried at halftime. I wasn't excited either because of the performance. It made the rest of the game kinda blah. And the technical happened so early in 2nd half that there wasn't much stress after about 5 mins in. I guess I'm not worried about losing, because we generally win the games we should, we've just not looked particularly good doing it lately. And we haven't looked particularly good in February since 2019. And with the current state of the B10, I'm just curious if thats masking something similiar.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Heide did nothing, Colvin did nothing, Morton did/does nothing, Furst finally did something.

Agree with some of that.
But as a TEAM they held the score, happy anytime subs can do that

 

[SqueakyClean]

I think it is a little of both.
As the year goes on, things just get a little harder.
1) Classes are getting harder, into the meat of the time requirements for homework / studying for mid-terms.

2) The season does kinda wear you down. The players know that they are a lock for the tournament at this point (at a likely high seed), and so it's that weird time period where they still have medium - hard games to play, but the BTT / NCAA tourney are still a month away, so the excitement of that hasn't kicked in yet.

3) As the season goes on, there is more tape to study for the opponents. The past few games (except IU) I've noticed a new strategy for teams on Smith. After Edey sets his screen, the guy defending Edey goes under and the guy going around the Edey screen recovers, and both defend against Smith for a second or two to limit his entry into the paint. It only lasts a short time, and then the Edey defender breaks off to go back to Edey, but it has been effective on limiting Braden from setting up the play that was started. Braden needs to see it happening and get the pass in to Edey sooner.
The point being, teams now have much more footage of everything that other teams have tried to limit Purdue offensively, some with more success than others, and coaches now can use that footage and apply it to their personnel to create advantages.

4) Of note, the schedule is much more front heavy this year than last. So part of that "February fade" from last year is just the fact that Purdue was playing better teams in February.

With that said, I think that this team is better than last year. Guys that were starters two years ago (Furst, Morton, Gillis) are now back-ups. That is an incredible luxury, to have experienced guys who can come off the bench and be nearly as effective as the starters (or at the very least, hold the line so that the other team doesn't cut into the lead before the starters have gotten their rest). Since Painter has that option available, he can mix and match players when one of the starters is struggling. The NW and Minnesota games are definitely games that Purdue would have lost last year.

 

[tjreese]

So the trend over the past few years is Purdue typically isn't playing their best basketball in February and March. We all know this.

2022:

Feb 10 - got destroyed at Michigan
Feb 13 - Barely squeaked by Maryland at home
Feb 26 - Lost at MSU
March 1 - Lost at Wisconsin

March 13 - Lost B10 Title game to Iowa
March 25- lost to St. Peters

2023:
Feb 4 - Lost at IU
Feb 12- lost at NW
Feb 16 - got obliterated at Maryland
Feb 25 - got beat by IU at home
Mar 2 - struggled to beat the worst Wisconsin team in decades on the road

Struggled to win BTT while playing the 9, 13, and 10 seeds

March 17 - FDU

2024:
Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10)
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson

All this when in the last three weeks: Edey has forgotten how to shoot FTs and has missed a much higher percentage of shots he normally makes. Loyer has put up a string of single digit performances. TKR has been putrid at the line and a non factor most games on offense. I'd have to try to find someone who thinks Purdue has even given a B+ performance in weeks.

That being said, we've won games. And I keep telling myself this year is different, because "we lost those games last year" But at this point, is that because we've grown, or because the B10 is historically bad this year? Outside of Purdue and UConn, most of college basketball is historically down this year, so the same thing happening in the big ten could potentially happen in the NCAAs as well.

But what are peoples opinions? Are we :

1) having our typical February slump and it's masked by the Big Ten being worse than previous years

2) Just getting everyones best shot, so teams can shoot 65+% from 3 some games and either beat or give us a stronger challenge than anticipated.

3) Playing to the level of our competition, like just toying with IU

4) B10 is more of grind and they know enough about Edey to make a plan with various levels of success

5) Something else?

Because I watch these games, and I'm happy they are winning, but they just don't look right. Even Fletch was 1-3 from the line. The only person who has looked more or less their normal self in the past few weeks has been our 6th Man, Gillis. Are we wearing down again and it's being masked by winning results? Do we just have a Feb/March funk every year? Is the B10 just this grinding regardless of talent level?

I feel like i'm having deja vu because every game it's like "well if we made our normal FTs" or "If they made their normal % from 3" this game wouldn't have been close. It's like one of the years with the cubs where it seemed every pitcher in baseball had their best start of the year against the cubs, and everyone just said the pitcher had a great game.......at one point is it the cubs?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, but it just baffles me we can't play up to our capabilities after the calendar turns. And with a road game @ OSU @Mich and @ Ill. and home games against rutgers with an improved offense, a desperate MSU team (that normally doesn't win at Mackey), and Wisconsin at home, I feel like I'm waiting for the inevitable WTF crash to end the year and make the B10 race interesting.

If you consider that players on both teams typically generate the most affect towards successful results instead of a coach doing that, then by all accounts you have three different populations (different players and different players playing at home and away over those years) as though they are out of the same population. To treat them as the same population you have to believe that Matt controls the results much more than the players. There are several things that can make it tougher towards the end of the season and the two biggest are teams with little room to lose while trying to get a better seed in the BTT or NCAA and the other is scouting reports being much better. Not only is there much more extensive data on each player, but coaches can see other teams approaches as to their success and debate if they have the players to replicate that a bit.

 

[SKYDOG]

Furst gave a nice lift.

He did and was surprised he didn’t take more of TKRs minutes.

 

[tjreese]

He did and was surprised he didn’t take more of TKRs minutes.

I was a bit surprised that when Caleb and Trey were out there that Caleb still defended their 5 who was not as fast, but strong. I thought they might have Trey do that an let Caleb defend more out on the perimeter with his quickness.

 

[SKYDOG]

I was a bit surprised that when Caleb and Trey were out there that Caleb still defended their 5 who was not as fast, but strong. I thought they might have Trey do that a let Caleb defend more out on the perimeter with his quickness.

When Trey took that three, I would have said “grab some bench”.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

So most were good counter points. And trust me, I'm hoping its not what I said. I was hoping for someone more analytical to tell me I'm wrong and they aren't Feb Slumping.

However, just a few counters to your counter points.

"Everyone" struggling at Rutgers would also be a "Big ten stinks" type of thing. Princeton beat them at home. Illinois destroyed them at home pre-suspension. We are the remaining loss in the 11-3 home record. And this was all before Williams, specifically when we played there. If the Big Ten is not the greatest and Purdue is the only great team, comparing struggles @ Rutgers to other B10 Teams is apples and oranges.

Northwestern is fair criticism but that might be the blueprint in the NCAAs as well. Let's hope other teams don't have the shooters. We just don't have a Wilcher, Buie, Berry, (pick minnesota guard here) that can absolutely go off on you. I guess that's the concern there.

Wisconsin did not look good against us. And I think in most years they are a 4th or 5th place team in the B10. They came of a blown game at Nebraska. They followed up our game by laying an egg in Ann Arbor and getting blown out at Rutgers. They've also lost to Penn State this year before Penn State was playing well. I don't think we played a great game, more like a solid? game. Maybe higher than a "C" but I find that debatable. Wisconsin was unknowingly at the time, in a stretch of really bad basketball. They also went 3 for 19 from 3. A couple more open shots go down (and there were some wide open looks) and that one was a tougher game. Wisconsin could have easily shot like minnesota did tonight.

Fair point about IU, we didn't try the last 10 mins. I guess I just wish they would have because of rivalry hate lol.

Minnesota: We didn't really come out flat. We came out stomping them. Zach got his 2nd foul, went to the bench, and the bench held serve. Zach came back out and they went on like a 25-8 run. Above average three point shooting for them? Absolutely. But we made it worse with sloppy turnovers and easy misses. And we didn't really turn things around until the technical foul. And even then, we race out to a ten point lead and don't keep the foot on the gas. Morton and Gillis did play well though.

honestly the biggest concern in the last few weeks has really boiled down to FTs. One and ones become turnovers and leaving points off the board changes the DNA of some, if not most, of these games.

I do however, share the sentiment above. I wasn't really worried at halftime. I wasn't excited either because of the performance. It made the rest of the game kinda blah. And the technical happened so early in 2nd half that there wasn't much stress after about 5 mins in. I guess I'm not worried about losing, because we generally win the games we should, we've just not looked particularly good doing it lately. And we haven't looked particularly good in February since 2019. And with the current state of the B10, I'm just curious if thats masking something similiar.

I guess the thing is, what do ppl expect? Perfect games every game? A dominating performance? That doesn’t happen much in college bball every game…especially with NIL and the transfer portal and Covid seniors who are on their 6-8th year of playing ball.

We got the NPOTY x2. We don’t know if we have a buie or Wilcher cuz we haven’t needed it/had to depend on it to win. We have Smith and Jones who can go get a bucket. The Smith/Edey PnR is unstoppable. Mason on 3s is has been cash money and Loyer has hit some when needed, but the guy with the DGAF attitude is Lance. He’s never seen a bad shot (in his mind) and he isn’t afraid of the moment. He has blown by guys for a layup, taken the big 3 when maaaybe it wasn’t the best shot but knocks it down and shifts momentum and has that junkyard dawg in him (like Braden)…but a little more nasty….we need that. Sometimes we are too nice. I like that Zach stepped over Payne last night over a weak foul call. Play the villain Zach! Everyone hates Purdue so why not embrace it.

The good news about free throws is we can improve on that…3P% is a bit tougher but good to see that it is still around 40%. Also was great to see the half time adjustments that have been made the last 3 games and all
Year, frankly.

 

[KenTre1983]

I felt the exact same way. I really felt they would get it together and win, especially playing at home. Now, come the middle of March and playing at a neutral site, I hope I am as confident.

Did Gene sign your hat, Don?

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

When Trey took that three, I would have said “grab some bench”.

Haha I was like 🫣 as that probably wasn’t the best shot to take at that moment. But he hit one earlier and is shooting 42% on low volume.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

So the trend over the past few years is Purdue typically isn't playing their best basketball in February and March. We all know this.

2022:

Feb 10 - got destroyed at Michigan
Feb 13 - Barely squeaked by Maryland at home
Feb 26 - Lost at MSU
March 1 - Lost at Wisconsin

March 13 - Lost B10 Title game to Iowa
March 25- lost to St. Peters

2023:
Feb 4 - Lost at IU
Feb 12- lost at NW
Feb 16 - got obliterated at Maryland
Feb 25 - got beat by IU at home
Mar 2 - struggled to beat the worst Wisconsin team in decades on the road

Struggled to win BTT while playing the 9, 13, and 10 seeds

March 17 - FDU

2024:
Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10)
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson

All this when in the last three weeks: Edey has forgotten how to shoot FTs and has missed a much higher percentage of shots he normally makes. Loyer has put up a string of single digit performances. TKR has been putrid at the line and a non factor most games on offense. I'd have to try to find someone who thinks Purdue has even given a B+ performance in weeks.

That being said, we've won games. And I keep telling myself this year is different, because "we lost those games last year" But at this point, is that because we've grown, or because the B10 is historically bad this year? Outside of Purdue and UConn, most of college basketball is historically down this year, so the same thing happening in the big ten could potentially happen in the NCAAs as well.

But what are peoples opinions? Are we :

1) having our typical February slump and it's masked by the Big Ten being worse than previous years

2) Just getting everyones best shot, so teams can shoot 65+% from 3 some games and either beat or give us a stronger challenge than anticipated.

3) Playing to the level of our competition, like just toying with IU

4) B10 is more of grind and they know enough about Edey to make a plan with various levels of success

5) Something else?

Because I watch these games, and I'm happy they are winning, but they just don't look right. Even Fletch was 1-3 from the line. The only person who has looked more or less their normal self in the past few weeks has been our 6th Man, Gillis. Are we wearing down again and it's being masked by winning results? Do we just have a Feb/March funk every year? Is the B10 just this grinding regardless of talent level?

I feel like i'm having deja vu because every game it's like "well if we made our normal FTs" or "If they made their normal % from 3" this game wouldn't have been close. It's like one of the years with the cubs where it seemed every pitcher in baseball had their best start of the year against the cubs, and everyone just said the pitcher had a great game.......at one point is it the cubs?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, but it just baffles me we can't play up to our capabilities after the calendar turns. And with a road game @ OSU @Mich and @ Ill. and home games against rutgers with an improved offense, a desperate MSU team (that normally doesn't win at Mackey), and Wisconsin at home, I feel like I'm waiting for the inevitable WTF crash to end the year and make the B10 race interesting.

It’s not gloom and doom. It’s reality.

My theory:

the last couple years, we have had great continuity with our rosters, whereas the majority of other programs’ rosters have been thrown together with portal players.

So, we have a huge advantage in the first part of the season, as we are already a well oiled machine in November and December.

Then other teams start figuring out the best version of themselves over the course of the season, and by February have closed the gap somewhat.

My two cents FWIW.

 

[qazplm]

I think what I see better than last year;

Jones over Jenkins
Smith takes a big jump
Edey better at dealing with double teams
Ball handling
TKR has improved a bit
Overall three point shooting

Here's what I see that's the same (for better or worse or really just same to be honest, these players are roughly who they were last season so before folks get upset that can be just fine)

Gillis (excellent last night)
Loyer
Morton (excellent last night)

What's worse

Free throw shooting

I think Heide First and Colvin have shown potential to have good minutes when given time but to be fair their roles are reduced somewhat compared to the other players. Furst played very well last night though.

Overall I don't see a slump, even as it's clear we aren't in our final form yet either

 

[Wolegib]

Last year we would have lost games like this. This year we are finding ways to win ugly when we are not at our best. Winning ugly is the mark of a champion.

 

[Hausta01]

Sure we were down 8 at half, but Minnesota hit what? 9 or 10 3s in that half? That wasn't continuing. Purdue has been the victim of some extremely high variance shooting from 3. And a lot of it is just making shots, not like IU's defense giving 30 wide open looks a game.

Hopefully getting these games now means we don't get them in the tourney.

 

[Boilermaker427]

I guess the thing is, what do ppl expect? Perfect games every game? A dominating performance? That doesn’t happen much in college bball every game…especially with NIL and the transfer portal and Covid seniors who are on their 6-8th year of playing ball.

We got the NPOTY x2. We don’t know if we have a buie or Wilcher cuz we haven’t needed it/had to depend on it to win. We have Smith and Jones who can go get a bucket. The Smith/Edey PnR is unstoppable. Mason on 3s is has been cash money and Loyer has hit some when needed, but the guy with the DGAF attitude is Lance. He’s never seen a bad shot (in his mind) and he isn’t afraid of the moment. He has blown by guys for a layup, taken the big 3 when maaaybe it wasn’t the best shot but knocks it down and shifts momentum and has that junkyard dawg in him (like Braden)…but a little more nasty….we need that. Sometimes we are too nice. I like that Zach stepped over Payne last night over a weak foul call. Play the villain Zach! Everyone hates Purdue so why not embrace it.

The good news about free throws is we can improve on that…3P% is a bit tougher but good to see that it is still around 40%. Also was great to see the half time adjustments that have been made the last 3 games and all
Year, frankly.

Don't need a perfect game every game. It would just be nice to put up one, especially one at home, in the last few weeks. Jan 28 was the last time I felt the team was clicking. With prior February performance I just wanna see a few good ones as we wind down the season

And yeah, these are games we lost last year. At the same time, the B10 was better last year, which is part of my concern

 

[northside100]

So the trend over the past few years is Purdue typically isn't playing their best basketball in February and March. We all know this.

2022:

Feb 10 - got destroyed at Michigan
Feb 13 - Barely squeaked by Maryland at home
Feb 26 - Lost at MSU
March 1 - Lost at Wisconsin

March 13 - Lost B10 Title game to Iowa
March 25- lost to St. Peters

2023:
Feb 4 - Lost at IU
Feb 12- lost at NW
Feb 16 - got obliterated at Maryland
Feb 25 - got beat by IU at home
Mar 2 - struggled to beat the worst Wisconsin team in decades on the road

Struggled to win BTT while playing the 9, 13, and 10 seeds

March 17 - FDU

2024:
Jan 23 - looked like world beaters against Michigan (last place in B10)
Jan 28 - struggle at Rutgers and their inept offense (which is now better since they are at full strength)
Jan 31 - barely escaped Northwestern at home
Feb 4 - played a "C" game at Wisconsin and won
Feb 10 - beat a terrible IU team at home who played so terrible Edey chucked a 3. Should have been a 35 point win
Feb 15 - were down 8 points at half to a middling Minn team that likely won't make the tourney at home. Only turned it around on a terrible technical foul on their coach, thanks Mr. Johnson

All this when in the last three weeks: Edey has forgotten how to shoot FTs and has missed a much higher percentage of shots he normally makes. Loyer has put up a string of single digit performances. TKR has been putrid at the line and a non factor most games on offense. I'd have to try to find someone who thinks Purdue has even given a B+ performance in weeks.

That being said, we've won games. And I keep telling myself this year is different, because "we lost those games last year" But at this point, is that because we've grown, or because the B10 is historically bad this year? Outside of Purdue and UConn, most of college basketball is historically down this year, so the same thing happening in the big ten could potentially happen in the NCAAs as well.

But what are peoples opinions? Are we :

1) having our typical February slump and it's masked by the Big Ten being worse than previous years

2) Just getting everyones best shot, so teams can shoot 65+% from 3 some games and either beat or give us a stronger challenge than anticipated.

3) Playing to the level of our competition, like just toying with IU

4) B10 is more of grind and they know enough about Edey to make a plan with various levels of success

5) Something else?

Because I watch these games, and I'm happy they are winning, but they just don't look right. Even Fletch was 1-3 from the line. The only person who has looked more or less their normal self in the past few weeks has been our 6th Man, Gillis. Are we wearing down again and it's being masked by winning results? Do we just have a Feb/March funk every year? Is the B10 just this grinding regardless of talent level?

I feel like i'm having deja vu because every game it's like "well if we made our normal FTs" or "If they made their normal % from 3" this game wouldn't have been close. It's like one of the years with the cubs where it seemed every pitcher in baseball had their best start of the year against the cubs, and everyone just said the pitcher had a great game.......at one point is it the cubs?

Not trying to be doom and gloom, but it just baffles me we can't play up to our capabilities after the calendar turns. And with a road game @ OSU @Mich and @ Ill. and home games against rutgers with an improved offense, a desperate MSU team (that normally doesn't win at Mackey), and Wisconsin at home, I feel like I'm waiting for the inevitable WTF crash to end the year and make the B10 race interesting.

Wow, that's a big post. The honest answer is no one knows. If you're looking for things to worry about in March you can certainly find them.

This team generally hasn't played it's best basketball over the last month and needs to play better in order to close out the regular season and to be successful in the NCAAT. Can they do that? No reason, IMO, to think that they can't. Will they do that? Remains to be seen.

My advice is to worry less and enjoy the ride.

 

[Wolegib]

We lost twice to IU down the stretch last year. We just beat them by 20. And yet if you look around the internet you will find people complaining about winning by 20 .

 

[tjreese]

When Trey took that three, I would have said “grab some bench”.

He took two if I recall. Hit one and missed one. He doesn't look for his shot behind the arc but with a lot of time being open he shoots it. I think he has been effective percent wise behind there as it has to be a wide open look with plenty of time, but yeah...I don't have a lot of confidence in him, Caleb or Ethan ...or ZACH behind the arc

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

In

He took two if I recall. Hit one and missed one. He doesn't look for his shot behind the arc but with a lot of time being open he shoots it. I think he has been effective percent wise behind there as it has to be a wide open look with plenty of time, but yeah...I don't have a lot of confidence in him, Caleb or Ethan ...or ZACH behind the arc

I actually thought he should have shot one at the top of the key when he had the opportunity but he passed it up. I think Furst also had two opportunities but don’t even give it a thought…well maybe he did for 1 second, but he instantly passed it away.

 

[tjreese]

In

I actually thought he should have shot one at the top of the key when he had the opportunity but he passed it up. I think Furst also had two opportunities but don’t even give it a thought…well maybe he did for 1 second, but he instantly passed it away.

This team for the most part plays to their strength. The players have a lot of discipline in that regard and are hesitant to leave their strength which is a good thing almost always

 

[DrEss]

Did Gene sign your hat, Don?

Nope, just like Harry Carey. I just had a pencil again.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Don't need a perfect game every game. It would just be nice to put up one, especially one at home, in the last few weeks. Jan 28 was the last time I felt the team was clicking. With prior February performance I just wanna see a few good ones as we wind down the season

And yeah, these are games we lost last year. At the same time, the B10 was better last year, which is part of my concern

I think what I’m looking for is are we improving/playing our best ball, able to make adjustments In games, how are we doing defensively, and how is our 3 pt shooting? We haven’t played a complete perfect game like we’ve mentioned and hopefully that will be a game in March.

I hope we can start playing more complete ball in the next two weeks and going into the tourney. I was encouraged by the adjustments made and how everyone contributed last night. Hope we keep that up

 

[SKYDOG]

He took two if I recall. Hit one and missed one. He doesn't look for his shot behind the arc but with a lot of time being open he shoots it. I think he has been effective percent wise behind there as it has to be a wide open look with plenty of time, but yeah...I don't have a lot of confidence in him, Caleb or Ethan ...or ZACH behind the arc

Really, Zach is the best 3 point shooter Purdue has at 50%. Lol