Just watched episode 7 of the Last Dance. Jordan was absolutely relentless with those guys. But it worked. Although I guess you can get away with it when you’re the GOAT.
Wheeler, Sasha and Dow......
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Wheeler, Sasha, and Dow... or Gillis, Ivey, and Morton?
Which group will be more instrumental in 2020-21?
Is this a 2006-07 season - where the team is led by an experienced returning core... Or is it a 2007-08 season - where there the keys are turned over to the next wave?
I kind of see more of the 2006-07 scenario, but probably a blend of the two. The 2020-21 freshman (including redshirts) should have a bigger impact than Kramer and Grant did in 2006-07. But I'm not sure the returning 2020-21 core can match the production of Landry and Teague. Returning experience will be needed, especially in the front court. I could, however, see the baton being passed in the back court if Morton and Ivey are as good as advertised.
I do believe this year will be somewhat of a turnover and at least one of the guys in the thread title will be relegated to bench duty by a first year player.
Which group will be more instrumental in 2020-21?
Is this a 2006-07 season - where the team is led by an experienced returning core... Or is it a 2007-08 season - where there the keys are turned over to the next wave?
I kind of see more of the 2006-07 scenario, but probably a blend of the two. The 2020-21 freshman (including redshirts) should have a bigger impact than Kramer and Grant did in 2006-07. But I'm not sure the returning 2020-21 core can match the production of Landry and Teague. Returning experience will be needed, especially in the front court. I could, however, see the baton being passed in the back court if Morton and Ivey are as good as advertised.
I do believe this year will be somewhat of a turnover and at least one of the guys in the thread title will be relegated to bench duty by a first year player.
If we are better than we were last year, I think your second group will have had the bigger impact. If we are about the same or worse, I think your 1st group will have had the bigger impact.
If the older guys don’t improve significantly, might as well play all the freshmen heavy minutes.
I'm not as worried about Dow's skill as his understanding. Separating those two from each other can sometimes be difficult. Dow should experience a decrease in his fouls as he plays more...at least in fouls per minute played. This will happen by learning more and nto trying to do to much in the limited minutes. His skill issue I could see in very lmited minutes was his stance relative to passing and handing off the ball. He does need to develop his ball lhandling a bit. The other skill that stood out but may not be needed as much as his ball handling is his flat shot...where he tries to aim the ball. His playing time if increased should help with all of that, but even more in not trying to block shots head high, but to go up and get the ball after it leaves the players hands. He slaps down too much...and his positioning in help D can be tweaked a bit. All that and what is needed out of Dow I think early minutes will be important until the light goes off.
Wheeler...I hope has consitency in his shooting. Like all we hope he could get decent in driving the ball since his game would be helped. He did improve his hands inside on O where teh ball wasn't stripped as easy. I think his D improved last year as well. It was just that elevated jump in his perimeter shooting along with a bit of flatter trajectory that caused the misses to be bad misses. Everything he needs to improve is in his hands...nothing that cannot be improved.
I think we will enjoy the season more than last year. Purdue needs to have Dow or Edey ready to contribute meaningful minutes prior to the Big to make a run. I think there will be enough scorers that Dow will not be needed to score, but still has to score if ignored. He just has to improve his ball handling (passing and hand-offs) and decrease his slapping down on attempted blocks to help Purdue. He can't have turnovers that go for baskets at the other end and he can't put teams in a bonus too early.
Handle the ball screens which I think he can do and rebound without fouling...run the court and look for some quickdowns while requiring other bigs to run with him during his minutes.I don't disagree. I do think that would lead to another poor year, however it would set us up better for the future.
I'm not as worried about Dow's skill as his understanding. Separating those two from each other can sometimes be difficult. Dow should experience a decrease in his fouls as he plays more...at least in fouls per minute played. This will happen by learning more and nto trying to do to much in the limited minutes. His skill issue I could see in very lmited minutes was his stance relative to passing and handing off the ball. He does need to develop his ball lhandling a bit. The other skill that stood out but may not be needed as much as his ball handling is his flat shot...where he tries to aim the ball. His playing time if increased should help with all of that, but even more in not trying to block shots head high, but to go up and get the ball after it leaves the players hands. He slaps down too much...and his positioning in help D can be tweaked a bit. All that and what is needed out of Dow I think early minutes will be important until the light goes off.
Wheeler...I hope has consitency in his shooting. Like all we hope he could get decent in driving the ball since his game would be helped. He did improve his hands inside on O where teh ball wasn't stripped as easy. I think his D improved last year as well. It was just that elevated jump in his perimeter shooting along with a bit of flatter trajectory that caused the misses to be bad misses. Everything he needs to improve is in his hands...nothing that cannot be improved.
I think we will enjoy the season more than last year. Purdue needs to have Dow or Edey ready to contribute meaningful minutes prior to the Big to make a run. I think there will be enough scorers that Dow will not be needed to score, but still has to score if ignored. He just has to improve his ball handling (passing and hand-offs) and decrease his slapping down on attempted blocks to help Purdue. He can't have turnovers that go for baskets at the other end and he can't put teams in a bonus too early.
I think people are focusing on the center position too much (of course, knock on wood, assuming all remain healthy). Of course, I also have low expectations for Dow - would rather him surprise than disappoint! But I also think what he needs to be effective at is limited - decent defense and rebounding. Offense is not what you need to focus a back up center on.
1. Purdue's been LUCKY enough to have incredible depth at the 5 position ever since Haas stepped on campus (backing up Hammons). Most programs are lucky enough to have 1 effective center, let alone 2. So yes, we're entering "uncharted territory" in the last 6 years of Purdue not having 40 minutes worth of starter worthy 5 action, but it's not to say it's some emergency.
2. We have good height on the current team. Only 1 player comes in under 6'4" that will play - Thompson. And 6 players at 6'6" or taller (5 at 6'7" or taller). And I'm not counting Edey in that.
With that said, you'd want Williams out there 25 minutes a game (last year he was 24 min/game in conference play). Obviously if he can go a little longer, great. But 25 is probably safe.
That leaves 15 minutes with him on the bench with 2 options: Dow and "small" ball.
Some of this would be match up dependent. But we're not going to see a lot of teams with 40 minutes worth of high quality 5s playing. Our "small ball" line up (I even hate to call it that) would still see at least 2 guys at 6'7" or taller, if not 3 at 6'6"+. Obviously not 240 pounds, but hopefully at least 2 of those are 220+ (Eastern is listed at 225 and Gillis was listed at 210 so hopefully he adds some more before the next season).
Obviously the X factor is Williams staying out of foul trouble. I think against most teams we can easily find 10-15+ minutes where we can afford to play without Williams/Dow/Edey.
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We may be able to play small in non conference, but we won't be able to during Big Ten play. Especially against the good/average teams. We may be able to go small against Nebraska and Northwestern, but that's about it.
Eastern/Wheeler/Gillis at the 5 would be a disaster in my opinion. Not only are those guys undersized both in height and weight, but they would be defending positions that likely have never learned to defend. Dow or Edey will have to play the backup 5 unless we get a GT in my opinion. Neither going small or playing our current backups are great options.
You have foul trouble, sickness or injury and fatigue all possible scenarios with Tre. Purdue may or may not be able to get solid minutes out of dow...I have no idea. However, Purdue will be better if he or Edey is able to contribute solid minutes. You can always go small ball. THAT option is always there. However, as I've stated many times before, I like versatility and an ability to play different ways as needed. As previously stated IMO Dow only needs to score on quickdowns, offensive boards or the D just ignoring him down on the blocks. He does however have to handle the ball some in either a passing situation or a handoff and that is a bit concerning based upon last year. THAT will improve with minutes I expect.
I expect Purdue to be better next year...even with the loss of Haarms adn look forward to that season after a successful football season.
Dow isn't going to score like Haarms, but in areas where he can add value.. if he can excel in those areas.. setting screens, rebounding, being physical, and playing good positional defense.. those are areas of possible upgrade that can help our guards excel as more of the scoring burden shifts to them.You have foul trouble, sickness or injury and fatigue all possible scenarios with Tre. Purdue may or may not be able to get solid minutes out of dow...I have no idea. However, Purdue will be better if he or Edey is able to contribute solid minutes. You can always go small ball. THAT option is always there. However, as I've stated many times before, I like versatility and an ability to play different ways as needed. As previously stated IMO Dow only needs to score on quickdowns, offensive boards or the D just ignoring him down on the blocks. He does however have to handle the ball some in either a passing situation or a handoff and that is a bit concerning based upon last year. THAT will improve with minutes I expect.
I expect Purdue to be better next year...even with the loss of Haarms adn look forward to that season after a successful football season.
he won't score like Haarms, but should be able to get 4 pts a game with a few minutes in how I described...maybe within a basket of haarms with 6 pts sometimes? Getting 4 boards a game..I have no idea how close he can get. The biggest different from a skill point will be that Dow does NOT handle the ball as well...and then second (not really needed) an outside shot. I think he will be an improvement on high ball screens over Tre, but not as good as Haarms. He will not block as many shots as Haarms either I don't expect. He will not get manhandled on the blocks as much as Haarms. Quite frankly, I doubt he will be able to equal the numbers Matt had, but he still might be able to contribute in an effective manner. Purdue needs to win and then hopefully he gets some minutes and grows to give a few minutes of value for Purdue this year.
IMO in a motion or read offense...the better the passers the better the potential offense. If Dow cannot pass out of the blocks, off rebounds or as a release to help with pressure...his minutes will be limited. If he doesn't score much, but yet occupies the D that will not cut his minutes. I think the ball handling, fouling and position on D are his areas of interest. I think fouling and position can be the larger areas of improvement with playing time and less improvement in passing (more skill) with more improvment in his handoffs possibly with minutes.
He is faster than Tre and stronger than Haarms from a physical point, but the game is still a bit rigid for him. Then again, he may get a few minutes early and not show progression and then it will be another year if ever. He will not be ready early I doubt, but he needs to show that he is getting it with his minutes...and sometimes that also means a few more minutes to learn live...without losing the game...
Haarms got 4.6 boards a game, but only 9 per 40 minutes. That's a poor number considering he was almost never on the court with Trevion fighting for the same rebounds. If Dow gets 10-12 mpg in a backup role, he only needs to grab 3 boards to add value in that department.
Gillis, Ivey and Morton should have a bigger impact. I say that bc Gillis should be a starter day 1. (I think Gillis should start and Wheeler should split minutes and see who plays better early to decide minutes).
2. I have at least Ivey or Morton starting by the end of the year.
3. Sasha is Cline clone. I think he’s a great complimentary offensive player. Ok on defense. He will do well in spots.
4. Dow and Wheeler are big question marks...
I'm not sure how you can pencil in Gillis as the day 1 starter when you've never seen him play at this level. I hope he's better than Wheeler too, but We haven't seen that yet. I still think Wheeler is the likely day 1 starter at the 4.
IT
Hunter
Sasha
Wheeler
Tre
I have not personally seen him play, no. I’ve seen Wheeler play quite a bit. I’d like to see Gillis start as I’ve heard/read positive things. Either way... I think they should each get 20 minutes per game for the first 5 games or so. Break down minutes by how they perform.
I think Ivey or Morton will work their way into the starting lineup. We’ll see. The best performing players should play...
IT, Sasha, and Wheeler will be challenged. Hunter and TreW are pretty solid starters and should be the best players.
I think Haarms is a bit overrated. Not a good rebounder. Fouled a lot. Didn’t score that much last year.
Dow will not be as good. But we lost our backup center... life will go on...
I don't see a world where Nojel doesn't start if he's still at Purdue, especially from day 1.
He lost his starting spot last year prior to Haarms getting injured. We have three new 4* guards coming in this year. He just hasn't improved in 3 years, so I'm not expecting anything in year 4.
He started 27/31 games last year. I don't see a world where Painter sits his lone senior and arguably the best defender in the B10 to start the year.
We haven't seen one of those new guys play at this level. Eastern is team captain, he'll be a starter, he'll defend like he's possessed, and he'll be much improved his last year. If he returns.
Every player I included in my projected starting lineup were players that have played before. Captains haven't been picked for the coming year. He WAS a captain last year...on a team that lacked leadership.
I'll say it right here....if Wheeler starts this coming season it's going to be a very long year. And I hope I'm wrong.
Painter as always will put those he deems best capable of helping the team win on the court. I could be wrong, but he isn't in my projected starting lineup.
Not in my projected starting line-up either. He's a solid a rotational guy who i think is probably best suited coming off the bench unless he's shown MAJOR improvements to his offensive game.
You have foul trouble, sickness or injury and fatigue all possible scenarios with Tre. Purdue may or may not be able to get solid minutes out of dow...I have no idea. However, Purdue will be better if he or Edey is able to contribute solid minutes. You can always go small ball. THAT option is always there. However, as I've stated many times before, I like versatility and an ability to play different ways as needed. As previously stated IMO Dow only needs to score on quickdowns, offensive boards or the D just ignoring him down on the blocks. He does however have to handle the ball some in either a passing situation or a handoff and that is a bit concerning based upon last year. THAT will improve with minutes I expect.
I expect Purdue to be better next year...even with the loss of Haarms adn look forward to that season after a successful football season.
That's why I said Dow just needs to be serviceable on defense and rebound. We don't need him to be an offensive star, which some people seem to be focused on. Not many back up centers are bringing a lot of offensive power to the table.
Maybe we should just forfeit??? I haven't seen you post one thing positive.
You must have missed my posts on Ivey, Tre, Hunter, and IT. I’m very high on those 4 players and think they will all be very good over the course of their careers.
I never once said we should forfeit. I hope my predictions are wrong. Based on the available information, however, we are very weak in the front court outside of Tre.
outside of carsen it is not very common for someone to come off the bench and be looked towards for scoring. You want positive minutes and contribute how they can, but you rarely count on a given number of points and such. Carsen was one you knew looked to score as he was walking to the scorers bench. Haas was another when he backed up AJ. Generally though there is less offensive scoring predictions for most players coming off the bench...and that doesn't imply that they are not expected to score...just that the amount is an unknown quanitity...
Painter's a smart guy. He knew that Dow would eventually need to play. I still don't understand why he didn't give him some meaningful minutes this year in blowout wins so he can play against another teams starters and not the scrubs.
The fact that Painter never did that makes me question whether he thinks Dow will ever be a contributor, even if it's just rebounding and D.
The fact that Painter never did that makes me question whether he thinks Dow will ever be a contributor, even if it's just rebounding and D.
I haven't the slightest idea, although in non-conference play, the team obviously needed a lot of work so not surprised the regular rotation played through most games. And conference play was very limited in blowout wins, and you also had 2 fives already playing. That being said, what's happening behind the scenes we don't know. Maybe Painter gave Dow a benchmark of some sort he needed to reach to get into games. We know that generally Painter isn't thrilled about playing players who are weak defensively.
Knowing he wasn't ever going to be needed, plus not really having the opportunity to give any valuable minutes, keeping the guy hungry to get better is a good enough excuse. Not sure what valuable experience/knowledge you'd get playing scrubs vs. scrubs.
I think it’s pretty obvious Painter doesn’t expect much out of Dow. He thought he was going to have another year of Williams and Haarms. He even tried to recruit over Dow with Dickinson and Kalkbrenner. Then he already has a 5 in 2021 with Furst.
As long as we are guessing, my guess is that Furst expressed a strong desire to play some 4. I can't imagine him coming to Purdue and only wanting to play "Purdues" traditional 5 spot. Now you can call him a 5, but I imagine he wants time away from the basket in more of a traditional 4 mode. Most players with dreams of moving on seem to want to play down a spot than what they played in highschool...with the idea that it helps them if they plan to move on after college. That said, Matt did offer two 5s...and "possibly" due to Dow not progressing as fast as originallhy thought, but I don't know anything about that either. Matt does like two good 5s because fatigue sets in with the bigs running farther down the court and all teh pushing and shoving for position that also wears you down.
I expect Matt does in fact expect a certain level from Dow to get minutes, but he may give a few more minutes early to see if progress quicker appears to happen. I don't think he gave up on Dow, but questions how fast he will prgress since he lost a year with his foot injury.
There's no doubt Dow will have to play now. I just believe given who we had on the roster prior to Haarms leaving, the 2020 and 2021 recruiting targets/commit, and Dow's low playing time, he wasn't a big part of the future plans.
I don't quite interpret things that way. Every year there are openings to fill. With 13 scholarships, coaches are constantly over-recruiting positions that are already "filled". It's like saying Newman isn't a big part of the future plans because they recruited Ivey. Or IT isn't a big part of the future because of Morton. You stock up with as much talent possible at each position, build depth, create competition, and let the cream rise to the top. Regardless of how "sold" they were on Dow, the 2020 class needed a big since they lost both Grady and EBo and knew they'd be losing Haarms by 2021 at the latest. As for Furst, he is more of a 4 than a 5. And you make room for talent like that if you can get it, regardless of position.
As for Dow's playing time last year, that's been debated a lot, and I don't think people are going to converge on this issue. But I think it is more than obvious that Matt has a philosophical difference from many of us in that he does not view a game as a development tool. He believes that development happens in practice and you put the players in the game who proved themselves in practice and give you the best chance to win. Period. I can't think of a single exception to point to where he played young guys soley to get them experience. If anything, as others have pointed out, he leaves in his regular rotation players deep into lopsided games to give THEM as much game experience together as possible.
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Nailed it...
I think I'll stay with that starting lineup...
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