Cleansing of souls

[northside100]

There were a lot of red hot takes this year and while many of those posters only show up pre-season or after losses, I thought I'd confess where my expectations were off coming into the year and encourage others to do the same. Feel free to call me out if you saw other hot takes from me that I'm not listing below.

Missed Prediction
Ethan Morton will average at least 20 mpg and will shoot in the low to mid 30% range from three on low volume.

Biggest Surprise
I realized going into the season that there would be a minutes crunch at the 4/5. I did not expect Caleb to see his minutes cut so drastically by Zach playing so many minutes and Caleb essentially playing only at the 5. Seeing 12 mpg wouldn't surprise me but 9mpg for the season and closer to 5 or 6 down the stretch would have.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

There were a lot of red hot takes this year and while many of those posters only show up pre-season or after losses, I thought I'd confess where my expectations were off coming into the year and encourage others to do the same. Feel free to call me out if you saw other hot takes from me that I'm not listing below.

Missed Prediction
Ethan Morton will average at least 20 mpg and will shoot in the low to mid 30% range from three on low volume.

Biggest Surprise
I realized going into the season that there would be a minutes crunch at the 4/5. I did not expect Caleb to see his minutes cut so drastically by Zach playing so many minutes and Caleb essentially playing only at the 5. Seeing 12 mpg wouldn't surprise me but 9mpg for the season and closer to 5 or 6 down the stretch would have.

Tried to tell you about Morton 😆

But mine would be predicting TKR would be more involved than what he was.

We saw flashes of how good he can be, but I don’t think he was utilized all the way (rightfully so if you have the back to back NPOTY at the 5). Excited to see his role next year.

 

[Boiler Buck]

There were a lot of red hot takes this year and while many of those posters only show up pre-season or after losses, I thought I'd confess where my expectations were off coming into the year and encourage others to do the same. Feel free to call me out if you saw other hot takes from me that I'm not listing below.

Missed Prediction
Ethan Morton will average at least 20 mpg and will shoot in the low to mid 30% range from three on low volume.

Biggest Surprise
I realized going into the season that there would be a minutes crunch at the 4/5. I did not expect Caleb to see his minutes cut so drastically by Zach playing so many minutes and Caleb essentially playing only at the 5. Seeing 12 mpg wouldn't surprise me but 9mpg for the season and closer to 5 or 6 down the stretch would have.

I would add Smith to the surprise category for me. Knew he would be good.....that was easy. But had no idea he would be on the verge of All-American good. A great surprise!

 

[Do Dah Day]

I don't recall many predictions, but I did say Furst, unfortunately, would be the loser underneath. I was definitely surprised about how well Lance fit right in immediately. I agree with @Boiler Buck ... smith was FAR better than I expected. Should listen to @tjreese more

 

[northside100]

Tried to tell you about Morton 😆

But mine would be predicting TKR would be more involved than what he was.

We saw flashes of how good he can be, but I don’t think he was utilized all the way (rightfully so if you have the back to back NPOTY at the 5). Excited to see his role next year.

Listening and changing my mind is not a well-developed skill for me.

Still bizarre to me that he shot as well as he did as a sophomore and how much of an outlier that was versus other years. It will be very interesting to see where he lands and his production next season.

 

[PaBoiler78]

There were a lot of red hot takes this year and while many of those posters only show up pre-season or after losses, I thought I'd confess where my expectations were off coming into the year and encourage others to do the same. Feel free to call me out if you saw other hot takes from me that I'm not listing below.

Missed Prediction
Ethan Morton will average at least 20 mpg and will shoot in the low to mid 30% range from three on low volume.

Biggest Surprise
I realized going into the season that there would be a minutes crunch at the 4/5. I did not expect Caleb to see his minutes cut so drastically by Zach playing so many minutes and Caleb essentially playing only at the 5. Seeing 12 mpg wouldn't surprise me but 9mpg for the season and closer to 5 or 6 down the stretch would have.

agree w/ you on Furst, I too thought he'd be more of a contributor this year, major disappointment

 

[northside100]

agree w/ you on Furst, I too thought he'd be more of a contributor this year, major disappointment

Disappointment in what sense? I guess I wish he'd have been more productive in the minutes he had but IMO it's a really tough ask to be highly productive in that few minutes.

I don't know how optimistic I am but I'd love to see Caleb really turn it on and have a big senior year.

 

[PaBoiler78]

Disappointment in what sense? I guess I wish he'd have been more productive in the minutes he had but IMO it's a really tough ask to be highly productive in that few minutes.

I don't know how optimistic I am but I'd love to see Caleb really turn it on and have a big senior year.

he never improved otherwise he would have gotten more PT than he did. This was his 3rd yr in the program

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

he never improved otherwise he would have gotten more PT than he did. This was his 3rd yr in the program

Where does he play tho? TKR and Gillis had the 4 locked down and are you gonna take
Edey out to let Furst play?

 

[pushal]

1. Lance Jones addition was the biggest best surprise
2. Braden Smith really improved and impressed
3. Colvin & Heidi both have loads of potential
4. Making the final 4 and beating Tennessee was more satisfying than imaginable. Winning our final four game and playing for it all was the icing on the cake. Attending this event in Phoenix was I believe the greatest Purdue sporting event ever; the pizazz of our fans and take over of Phoenix was significant. Seeing Bruce Barker step out after retirement draw a crowd of 2000+ at a random Phoenix bar on short order was electrifying. Getting college friends from 20 years ago together in Phoenix… Simply put this season was unbelievable!

 

[ImRonBurgandy?]

Definitely didn't see Lance Jones being as good as he was. Great fit. Downside is Jones' play probably impeded Colvin's growth somewhat.

 

[rgarlitz]

I'll admit: I wasn't blown away by Lance Jones when he joined the team. I thought he would add depth but not be a starter and the team's 3rd leading scorer.

 

[Heads up BOILER]

Missed on my take that the TKR at 4 with Zach at 5 would not last and that Mason and Caleb would split time with him at the 4 and TKR would still get some time at the 5.

I thought Heide would have a breakout year and break into the starting rotation.

 

[northside100]

I would add Smith to the surprise category for me. Knew he would be good.....that was easy. But had no idea he would be on the verge of All-American good. A great surprise!

Why am I not surprised that guys like you, who generally have very well-thought-out takes, reply to this thread while guys who consistently post hot takes all season long, do not?

 

[Boiler Buck]

Why am I not surprised that guys like you, who generally have very well-thought-out takes, reply to this thread while guys who consistently post hot takes all season long, do not?

Well I thought your post 1 in the thread was interesting and made me think. Perhaps they were not interested in that?

But can't speak for others.

 

[RDUBoiler]

I

Well I thought your post 1 in the thread was interesting and made me think. Perhaps they were not interested in that?

But can't speak for others.

I'm not a hot take guy, but I'm just now seeing this. Hopefully some recent posts will wake this thread back up because it's an interesting "hot stove" topic.

I don't think I predicted much, but like others, I probably expected Morton to make a leap forward. I also thought Colvin would contribute more right away.

 

[Roeder]

I missed on Colvin. Thought he'd have more of an impact and would make the All B1G Freshmen team. Looking back, not playing high level HS or AAU should have lowered my expectations that it'd take time to adjust to this level.

Still very excited about his potential though, and I believe he is young for his grade. I hope he has a huge offseason now that he has a better feel for what is expected of him in this system.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I missed on Colvin. Thought he'd have more of an impact and would make the All B1G Freshmen team. Looking back, not playing high level HS or AAU should have lowered my expectations that it'd take time to adjust to this level.

Still very excited about his potential though, and I believe he is young for his grade. I hope he has a huge offseason now that he has a better feel for what is expected of him in this system.

He is young for his grade…turns 19 in August i believe.

However, he came Into a very good, solid team already. The team didn’t need him to play big minutes (I guess you could argue he maybe could have helped more vs UConn but if that’s the case, maybe we don’t make it that far). But I expect a big jump/role for him next year.

 

[rgarlitz]

I didn't know what to expect from Colvin other than 1) he comes from a very athletic family, and 2) I assumed there would be minutes available for a wing/3rd guard.

As I said earlier, I didn't see Lance taking control of that position from day 1.

 

[Dryfly88]

Lance, Lance and Lance. I was not very excited when we got him and thought he was basically an undersized 2 guard and we needed a PG. Couldn't have been more wrong on what his impact was going to be. Never dreamed I would be watching us in the Championship game and one of the biggest reasons being Lance.

 

[northside100]

He is young for his grade…turns 19 in August i believe.

However, he came Into a very good, solid team already. The team didn’t need him to play big minutes (I guess you could argue he maybe could have helped more vs UConn but if that’s the case, maybe we don’t make it that far). But I expect a big jump/role for him next year.

I agree, I expect him to have a strong offseason and to continue to improve.

It would have been helpful for Myles to be up and running this season (not saying we beat UConn in that case, I don't know) but given his hs and aau experience I think his progress has been right on schedule.

I'm not sure that it's realistic to expect him to come close to reaching his full potential at Purdue, that may happen at the next level, but his shooting, athleticism and ability to hit pull-up jumpers are elite.

 

[Wolegib]

Lance was a lot better fit than anyone could have predicted. It’s ironic that Domask was actually the player Painter was trying to sign. Domask was going to fill the 3 spot.

Lance was known for being a great defender who liked to shoot the three a lot. He wasn’t known to be a great pg, but was known as a great ball handler.

Lance saw the opportunity and went for it. Lance’s contributions allowed Loyer to change his role and Smith to concentrate on being a pure PG.

A question looking forward, is does Loyer stay in the role he filled last year with Harris and Myles filling Lance’s role? Or does Loyer try to fill Lance’s role with someone else trying to fill the 3 spot!

 

[northside100]

A question looking forward, is does Loyer stay in the role he filled last year with Harris and Myles filling Lance’s role? Or does Loyer try to fill Lance’s role with someone else trying to fill the 3 spot!

Great question. I don't know how much difference the two versus three spot makes, but I expect to see Fletch play alongside Cam and/or Myles (along with Braden). I expect Harris to back up Braden and Fletch.

 

[titaniumbolt]

Missed Predictions
1) Morton PT - I thought he would continue his upward trend, not go from 25 mins/game to 10.
2) I thought the weakness of the B10 would bite us come March - it did not.
3) I thought we would need Heide or Colvin to reasignificantly develop to get us through March.

Nailed Predictions
1) "I want nothing to do with UConn. They are legit - our guards give up multiple inches and 15+ lbs to theirs. Not a recipe for March success." -February 7, 2024; We're lucky they were on the other side of the bracket from us (plus we got Barnes).
2) Stagnant guard play from Smith/Loyer - Smith looked better on the hoof, but his metrics didn't lie - slightly less offensive production/slight worse defense per 100 possessions. Loyer actually improved slightly on offense but regressed defensively on a per 100 possession prediction.
3) The weakness of the B10.
4) Gonzaga was not a top 10 team.

Biggest Surprises
All in all, that we were able to go so far with what was a very tight rotation.

We benefited from a historically fantastic draw in terms of region and competition (can never complain when Barnes is standing between you and a final four), but we were due for it!

 

[tjreese]

I don't recall many predictions, but I did say Furst, unfortunately, would be the loser underneath. I was definitely surprised about how well Lance fit right in immediately. I agree with @Boiler Buck ... smith was FAR better than I expected. Should listen to @tjreese more

He improved more than I figured he would in one year.

 

[tjreese]

I don't recall many predictions, but I did say Furst, unfortunately, would be the loser underneath. I was definitely surprised about how well Lance fit right in immediately. I agree with @Boiler Buck ... smith was FAR better than I expected. Should listen to @tjreese more

What I wrote Braden a few days ago relative to this topic.

Braden, I just wanted to drop you a quick note. I remember the first time I saw you play and it was the junior/senior all-star game where your dad saw me and came over to talk for a few. I left after the game and pointed to my eyes with how well you saw the court. The next year with your injury I couldn’t see you until the Carmel sectional. I think it was the first game of the sectional that your father introduced you to me. I said to you, “Your father was a really good ball player, but you are better.” That was not to degrade your father at all because he was a really good player, but to state just how good I thought you were. I think it was the next game of the sectional where I caught your dad after the game and said, “Dustin, he is very, very good and has a shot as Mr. Basketball!” It was either that game of the next one I saw Terry Johnson and went to see him for a minute in the stands. I asked if he was there to see you and said yes. I said, you know…people talk about how good of a shooter Braden is…which he is, but that is not what he does the best. I said he runs the team and sees the floor so well and gets the ball where it needs to be and Terry said yes, he controls the game.

Your game didn’t just peak in high school, but continues to grow at Purdue to being one of, if not the top PG in college basketball. It is remarkable the growth you have achieved. Everyone can see that, but not everyone understands it was not an accident. When I see the marvelous skills you have, I understand the amount of work you put in to get to that point. It is that effort, that resolve to prove others wrong when they short-change you, that I also see that is so impressive. I wanted to compliment you on the sacrifices you have made and the work ethic required to accomplish your goals. That is so impressive Braden and will carry you so far in life when you no longer play. Sometimes I see a bit of flash that reminds me of your dad and only wish I could have seen your mother play as well. I know I told your mother at one of those sectional games that you had no choice but to be good with the parents you had. 😊 Congrats on your Purdue career Braden so far and may it have many more fond memories.

 

[Woodsa]

Hoping to see the level of improvement in Loyer next season that we saw in Braden this season.

With Heide and Colvin a year wiser plus new talent coming in, Purdue should be a quality team.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Hoping to see the level of improvement in Loyer next season that we saw in Braden this season.

With Heide and Colvin a year wiser plus new talent coming in, Purdue should be a quality team.

What does that look like for Loyer?

 

[titaniumbolt]

What does that look like for Loyer?

Becoming at least average on defense

 

[tjreese]

Becoming at least average on defense

his team defense is ahead of some...it is his individual on the ball D where he is a little slow

 

[boilerzz]

2) Stagnant guard play from Smith/Loyer - Smith looked better on the hoof, but his metrics didn't lie - slightly less offensive production/slight worse defense per 100 possessions. Loyer actually improved slightly on offense but regressed defensively on a per 100 possession prediction.

Um...well...hmm...wut?

 

[Boileratthebeach]

What does that look like for Loyer?

Stronger. Needs to be able to drive to the hoop effectively. Either that or develop a pull up.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Missed Predictions
1) Morton PT - I thought he would continue his upward trend, not go from 25 mins/game to 10.
2) I thought the weakness of the B10 would bite us come March - it did not.
3) I thought we would need Heide or Colvin to reasignificantly develop to get us through March.

Nailed Predictions
1) "I want nothing to do with UConn. They are legit - our guards give up multiple inches and 15+ lbs to theirs. Not a recipe for March success." -February 7, 2024; We're lucky they were on the other side of the bracket from us (plus we got Barnes).
2) Stagnant guard play from Smith/Loyer - Smith looked better on the hoof, but his metrics didn't lie - slightly less offensive production/slight worse defense per 100 possessions. Loyer actually improved slightly on offense but regressed defensively on a per 100 possession prediction.
3) The weakness of the B10.
4) Gonzaga was not a top 10 team.

Biggest Surprises
All in all, that we were able to go so far with what was a very tight rotation.

We benefited from a historically fantastic draw in terms of region and competition (can never complain when Barnes is standing between you and a final four), but we were due for it!

Can you explain what you mean about Braden?

Per 100 from 23 -> 24

He improved everything except:

2PFG% down 3.5%
FTM and FTA- both down 2.5
BLK - down 0.2
TOV - up 0.5
ORating - down 2.5 (DRating up 1.6)

His PER40, he was similar as per 100.

I assume it was due to playing almost 300 more mins than the previous year. But jeeze man, what else did you want him to do?

He flirted with triple doubles, had the all time single season B1G assists record, almost doubled his total assists from previous year (153 to 292), shot 43% from 3, upped his ppg by over 2 ppg, had 20 more steals, 80 more rebounds…was named to a Cousy finalist list, first team all big ten…AA honorable mention (some publications).

And he’s going to be even better this next year.