ADVERTISEMENT

NW Point Spread

P

pubill

Redshirt Freshman
Jan 2, 2021
1,497
2,114
113
Looking at the pointspread and trying to figure out if or who to bet, I am mixed. Spread is Purdue-13. NW is and and will be tough for us to guard. Am sure Jones will have Bouie, and he is almost an impossible cover. U almost have to take away his open 3's and layups and give him those floaters he shoots, and he shoots them well. That leaves who on Barnhizer? He is strong , plus can shoot and is just another tough match for us.

I look for us to be focused and want revenge and crowd should be in it, but really think it will be tough to put them away easily, i.e. cover the spread.

I will place a small pizza bet on PU, but don't feel good about it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: DrEss and tjreese
pubill said:
Looking at the pointspread and trying to figure out if or who to bet, I am mixed. Spread is Purdue-13. NW is and and will be tough for us to guard. Am sure Jones will have Bouie, and he is almost an impossible cover. U almost have to take away his open 3's and layups and give him those floaters he shoots, and he shoots them well. That leaves who on Barnhizer? He is strong , plus can shoot and is just another tough match for us.

I look for us to be focused and want revenge and crowd should be in it, but really think it will be tough to put them away easily, i.e. cover the spread.

I will place a small pizza bet on PU, but don't feel good about it.
Click to expand...
I would love to see someone take away Boos right hand shading half a body on his right side. I realize that opens up the drive a bit easier, but if still on his right he either scores with his left or the D goes for a fake and he gets it off with his right. I want to believe that Zach can really contend with Boo using his left, but Purdue has to then really cover Nicholson on a bounce pass that Zach seems to struggle more against or Zach goes so far out that the lob is there. Boo will get screens to try to put him on the defender he wants. In the past Matt has been known to put the defender not on who he wants initially, but counting on a switch to get the defender he wanted on the offensive player.

Brooks will be defended by Purdue's 4 I believe. Otherwise he takes the smaller Purdue player to the rim IMO. Size probably keeps him more on the perimeter where if he isn't hitting behind the arc he probably gets less at the rim as well.

They will continue to use their bigs and the fouls they have to prevent baskets when Zach has them beat. If Purdue players don't go to the basket and draw some fouls it is possible they could use 6 fouls on Zach to stop easy baskets (in addition to the fouls not called) or 12 points in a half and so you hope some of those first six fouls result in FTs for Zach. NW doesn't use their bigs to score as much as to defend inside, get some put backs mostly and so fouls by their bigs are nowhere near as costly as they are to Purdue when Zach gets them...they don't play a major role in their offense.

The other two will mostly be on the perimeter playing off some ball screens and off ball screens with backdoor cuts if Purdue applies more pressure on the arc.

I don't see them shooting near as well as they did at home and although history has shown close games...a decent game by Purdue and it can easily get to a double digit victory. This anticipated half court game should help a bit against Wisconsin. Purdue wants to run when able in both, but will probably need to really be efficient in the half and that is where most good teams playing has it decided IMO.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Boilermb and SKYDOG
After watching Coleman Hawkins get T’ed up last night for crying about an obvious foul against him, would love to see a ref actually call an offensive foul against Boo tonight for his hip checks.

I think this is one we come out on fire especially for Braden - he is going to make a case for not being on the Cousey list. Don’t think we win by 16, just seems like a lot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Monk1014, ChuckJr, DrEss and 2 others
ChoiceBeef said:
After watching Coleman Hawkins get T’ed up last night for crying about an obvious foul against him, would love to see a ref actually call an offensive foul against Boo tonight for his hip checks.

I think this is one we come out on fire especially for Braden - he is going to make a case for not being on the Cousey list. Don’t think we win by 16, just seems like a lot.
Click to expand...
As we know though...coming out with fire doesn't always put good metrics on fire. I look for Purdue to be sharp, Lance to have studied Boo a bit more and Purdue to adjust the D screens perhaps on the perimeter as well as to try to get Zach open with some different looks. Hope Zach doesn't try to kick it out when trapped 180 where it tends to get stolen, but is willing to make the easier pass back out and repost again with the perimeter play relocating a bit to possibly reduce those turnovers out of the post when he is not screening for Braden.

Almost all the season Purdue has not doubled on the other team's five and hope that is able to be continued in this games so the other 4 don't start out in a rotation and can mostly focus on just switching when needed. Sure like Purdue's perimeter players fully aware of screens and playing a bit to prevent the screen to be so effective by getting into the space and body ever so slightly to go over the top easier and stay with the shooters...particularly for Lance to stay with Boo and Boo not get the switch he wants.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ChoiceBeef
pubill said:
Looking at the pointspread and trying to figure out if or who to bet, I am mixed. Spread is Purdue-13. NW is and and will be tough for us to guard. Am sure Jones will have Bouie, and he is almost an impossible cover. U almost have to take away his open 3's and layups and give him those floaters he shoots, and he shoots them well. That leaves who on Barnhizer? He is strong , plus can shoot and is just another tough match for us.

I look for us to be focused and want revenge and crowd should be in it, but really think it will be tough to put them away easily, i.e. cover the spread.

I will place a small pizza bet on PU, but don't feel good about it.
Click to expand...

NW starts 4 guards leaving Barnhizer alot @ the 4. Thus looks like TKR will start on him, but Gillis likely gets most of the work.

I look for the Light Switch to be on with a big game for Loyer. He usually shows up big-time after one of his weak sister, no show games.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ChoiceBeef
SaratogaBoiler1 said:
Lay the points - Edey dominated last time and our offense at home is phenomenal. Purdue by 16. Doubt all of their guards shoot as well as they did in December and our D is improved.
Click to expand...
Not to mention this was the game even Painter spoke up on was poorly officiated. I am not one to blame the refs ,unless it's CLEARLY noticable.
 
  • Like
Reactions: ejs1111 and ChoiceBeef
lovelyblonde said:
Not to mention this was the game even Painter spoke up on was poorly officiated. I am not one to blame the refs ,unless it's CLEARLY noticable.
Click to expand...
I think it was bad two years ago and reminded every time Zach is going to the line and I see a gapping scar on his arm. I fully understand scratches and such, but not sure how a gap on the arm happens. This year I didn't think the refs were near as bad as the year before
 
  • Like
Reactions: Longboat Boiler, ChoiceBeef and wallyboiler79
tjreese said:
I think it was bad two years ago and reminded every time Zach is going to the line and I see a gapping scar on his arm. I fully understand scratches and such, but not sure how a gap on the arm happens. This year I didn't think the refs were near as bad as the year before
Click to expand...
I am with you on that. Iv'e just noticed a few on the mens purdue basketball page on Facebook reminding us with videos of how bad it was. I definitely was one that thought last season was worse and then Iu fans got a tatse a few days later and it was really bad too. Just want a fair game.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tjreese
Northwestern is bad on the road. Lost to Illinois without Shannon by 30 on the road. Beat Illinois at home with Shannon
 
pubill said:
Looking at the pointspread and trying to figure out if or who to bet, I am mixed. Spread is Purdue-13. NW is and and will be tough for us to guard. Am sure Jones will have Bouie, and he is almost an impossible cover. U almost have to take away his open 3's and layups and give him those floaters he shoots, and he shoots them well. That leaves who on Barnhizer? He is strong , plus can shoot and is just another tough match for us.

I look for us to be focused and want revenge and crowd should be in it, but really think it will be tough to put them away easily, i.e. cover the spread.

I will place a small pizza bet on PU, but don't feel good about it.
Click to expand...
Sometimes when the spread seems high, like the IU game for example, is when you want to lay the points.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Chi-Boiler
In the Big Ten, NW has averaged 79 points per game (in regulation) at home. On the road, they have averaged 68.5. They are just a much different team on the road.

For comparison, Purdue's lowest scoring game at home has been 83 points in the Big Ten and 80 points for the whole season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tjreese, BoilerDaddy, ChoiceBeef and 2 others
To be fair, Purdue's Junior class has not seen a single loss in a road game where the court wasn't stormed......
 
Boiler Buck said:
NW starts 4 guards leaving Barnhizer alot @ the 4. Thus looks like TKR will start on him, but Gillis likely gets most of the work.

I look for the Light Switch to be on with a big game for Loyer. He usually shows up big-time after one of his weak sister, no show games.
Click to expand...
Good point, he’s due.
 
DwaynePurvis00 said:
Did they rush the court when we lost at Michigan, MSU and Wisconsin in the 2021-2022 season?
Click to expand...
Looking back on it, I'm not sure. I missed two of those games on a family vacation and I try to block out the last 5-6 regular season games that year from my mind lol

I thought I heard that on a broadcast this year and just went with it. Makes sense after being #1 one point or another 3 years in a row, but I doubt MSU did, at the very least
 
  • Like
Reactions: DwaynePurvis00
Boilermaker427 said:
To be fair, Purdue's Junior class has not seen a single loss in a road game where the court wasn't stormed......
Click to expand...
Did anyone see last night at Georgia Tech? Security was able to get the students to WAIT until it was safe before letting them onto the floor. It didn't take away anything from their celebration. It only took about a minute, but it worked. It's almost as if they got themselves prepared in the final 10 minutes or so when it was going to be a possibility that they won.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tjreese and DwaynePurvis00
As to the spread, it's about where I expected it. Was thinking -13.5. Unfortunately being in Illinois, I can't see player props.
 
tjreese said:
I think it was bad two years ago and reminded every time Zach is going to the line and I see a gapping scar on his arm. I fully understand scratches and such, but not sure how a gap on the arm happens. This year I didn't think the refs were near as bad as the year before
Click to expand...
LOL Trevion gave him that one. Zach talked about it one time. Practice is rough!
 
  • Like
Reactions: tjreese
BoilerMaker P said:
Wisconsin did, Michigan and MSU did not.
Click to expand...

Yes....and as to Wisconsin, think that was mainly for clinching at least a share for the regular season conference championship. Which then remained shared when they dropped the regular season finale to Nebraska, IIRC. Still - no fun for the Boilers down the stretch. Comes with the territory if you want to compete at the highest level.
 
I predicted Purdue by 14 last week, NW closes late, if you noticed, Purdue has blew a few spreads late with the reserves in, fine with me, rather have guys rest. I bet over Smith 10.5 points and over Boo 17.5, that will be my action for tonight.
 
SqueakyClean said:
In the Big Ten, NW has averaged 79 points per game (in regulation) at home. On the road, they have averaged 68.5. They are just a much different team on the road.

For comparison, Purdue's lowest scoring game at home has been 83 points in the Big Ten and 80 points for the whole season.
Click to expand...
Sorry guys. My bad.
Should have realized that typing those words would cause NW to have their best road shooting percentage of the entire year.
At least the jinx didn't result in a loss.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

KentuckyBoiler

Does Loyer start for next year's team?

Replies
149
Views
6K
Boilermaker Men's Basketball
qazplm
qazplm
S

Who do you want Purdue to play on Friday?

Replies
62
Views
2K
Boilermaker Men's Basketball
BoilerAndy
B
Born Boiler

Deep Questions in the Big Ten

Replies
0
Views
464
Boilermaker Men's Basketball
Born Boiler
Born Boiler
P

Last Game of Season

Replies
14
Views
813
Boilermaker Men's Basketball
pubill
P
Boiler Addict

Senior Memories - Mason Gillis

Replies
7
Views
774
Boilermaker Men's Basketball
Boiler Addict
Boiler Addict
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back