March Madness Results - Facts/Narrative

Apr 5, 2022
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I see this narrative about Painter always underperforming in March, which I've never understood. Maybe I'm not old enough to remember the Keady days and that's why. If you look at Purdue's recent tournament results, they've more or less slightly outperformed their seed's expectation with 2 disappointments (2016 and 2021) and 2 good surprises (2009, 2019). For as much as people talk about early exits to Little Rock and North Texas, advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed (34.0%) and the Elite 8 (25.7%) as a 3 Seed were actually just as unlikely.

2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84

Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)

Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.

My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.

And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."
 

Do Dah Day

All-American
Nov 8, 2015
7,503
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I see this narrative about Painter always underperforming in March, which I've never understood. Maybe I'm not old enough to remember the Keady days and that's why. If you look at Purdue's recent tournament results, they've more or less slightly outperformed their seed's expectation with 2 disappointments (2016 and 2021) and 2 good surprises (2009, 2019). For as much as people talk about early exits to Little Rock and North Texas, advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed (34.0%) and the Elite 8 (25.7%) as a 3 Seed were actually just as unlikely.

2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84

Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)

Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.

My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.

And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."
Reality meets unreal expectations.
 

Wolegib

All-American
May 23, 2013
9,334
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I believe what frustrates Purdue fans most is that Purdue never exceeds expectations! Other schools exceed expectations almost every year, but never Purdue.

for as many times as Purdue has failed to make the final 4, think of the frustration UK, Duke and Kansas fans feel when their teams as #1 seeds are upset and don’t make the final 4. For them, anything less is considered a failure and lost season!
 
Feb 20, 2018
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Purdue has a good to very good program. Not elite, not great. Zero final fours in 42 years, but lots of conference championships, a number of sweet sixteens and a few elite 8' s in those years. That's what they are, a good, clean program. Will the NIL set the program back to mediocre? Time will tell.
 

SCBoiler1

Redshirt Freshman
Feb 10, 2014
1,241
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I believe what frustrates Purdue fans most is that Purdue never exceeds expectations! Other schools exceed expectations almost every year, but never Purdue.

for as many times as Purdue has failed to make the final 4, think of the frustration UK, Duke and Kansas fans feel when their teams as #1 seeds are upset and don’t make the final 4. For them, anything less is considered a failure and lost season!
Not sure about this.

I look back at the 2018-2019 Elite 8 team's lineup and I wonder how they accomplished so much. B1G Championship and Elite 8 appearance with a starting line up of Eastern, Haarms, Grady, Cline and Edwards. Only Edwards even got a sniff at the NBA. Edwards was great in the Tournament but shot 35% and 31% from 3 in conference play and we still won the title. That team started the year ranked 24th and ended up ranked 13th. Has to be Painter's best coaching job.

Even in 2020-2021 we were unranked at the beginning of the year but got 4th place in the B1G and ended up ranked 20th with Trevion, Sasha and a bunch of freshmen. I believe that result exceeded the expectations of most.
 

Boiler8285

Senior
Oct 30, 2010
2,932
916
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I see this narrative about Painter always underperforming in March, which I've never understood. Maybe I'm not old enough to remember the Keady days and that's why. If you look at Purdue's recent tournament results, they've more or less slightly outperformed their seed's expectation with 2 disappointments (2016 and 2021) and 2 good surprises (2009, 2019). For as much as people talk about early exits to Little Rock and North Texas, advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed (34.0%) and the Elite 8 (25.7%) as a 3 Seed were actually just as unlikely.

2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84

Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)

Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.

My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.

And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."
You don't need to remember the Keady days they were the same as the Painter days. Solid teams that played hard with a couple of Elite eight games for the career. Now the couple of Lee Rose years that's a different story.
 
Feb 20, 2018
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Not sure about this.

I look back at the 2018-2019 Elite 8 team's lineup and I wonder how they accomplished so much. B1G Championship and Elite 8 appearance with a starting line up of Eastern, Haarms, Grady, Cline and Edwards. Only Edwards even got a sniff at the NBA. Edwards was great in the Tournament but shot 35% and 31% from 3 in conference play and we still won the title. That team started the year ranked 24th and ended up ranked 13th. Has to be Painter's best coaching job.

Even in 2020-2021 we were unranked at the beginning of the year but got 4th place in the B1G and ended up ranked 20th with Trevion, Sasha and a bunch of freshmen. I believe that result exceeded the expectations of most.
It was Edward's in the tournament. One of the greatest in NCAA history. Painter does a great job regular season. He knows how to work the BIG Ten grind.
 

BoilerMaker P

True Freshman
Nov 28, 2001
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Not sure about this.

I look back at the 2018-2019 Elite 8 team's lineup and I wonder how they accomplished so much. B1G Championship and Elite 8 appearance with a starting line up of Eastern, Haarms, Grady, Cline and Edwards. Only Edwards even got a sniff at the NBA. Edwards was great in the Tournament but shot 35% and 31% from 3 in conference play and we still won the title. That team started the year ranked 24th and ended up ranked 13th. Has to be Painter's best coaching job.

Even in 2020-2021 we were unranked at the beginning of the year but got 4th place in the B1G and ended up ranked 20th with Trevion, Sasha and a bunch of freshmen. I believe that result exceeded the expectations of most.
Truthfully, that was probably the best lineup Purdue has ever had if you’re talking purely being built for success in the tournament. Edwards - the superior talented guard who put the team on his shoulders when needed, Eastern - a physical, athletic guard capable of guarding the opponents best guard and locking them down. Cline - 3 point specialist. Haarms - a mobile, athletic big who could run pick and roll and defend pick and roll while being somewhat of a rim protector and rebounder. Eifert - the steady glue guy, role player. The only lineup that has even come close to that good would have been in 2010 with a healthy Hummel.
 
May 8, 2015
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Go back to the preseason expectations thread from last year. Overwhelming majority said they would be happy with a sweet sixteen appearance and didn’t expect more. Fast forward to Ivey taking a big leap and starting the season hot and expectations changed. Hindsight is 20/20 and expectations follow the moving goal posts rather than maintaining at the level of preseason anticipation.
 

indyogb

Junior
Jul 7, 2001
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Not sure about this.

I look back at the 2018-2019 Elite 8 team's lineup and I wonder how they accomplished so much. B1G Championship and Elite 8 appearance with a starting line up of Eastern, Haarms, Grady, Cline and Edwards. Only Edwards even got a sniff at the NBA. Edwards was great in the Tournament but shot 35% and 31% from 3 in conference play and we still won the title. That team started the year ranked 24th and ended up ranked 13th. Has to be Painter's best coaching job.

Even in 2020-2021 we were unranked at the beginning of the year but got 4th place in the B1G and ended up ranked 20th with Trevion, Sasha and a bunch of freshmen. I believe that result exceeded the expectations of most.
The 2018 team with Edwards was an ideal tournament team - a solid team with solid role players and a superstar guard who can get white hot. It was a rare reversal for Purdue, which usually fields more balanced talent across the lineup and achieves more regular season accolades but runs into problems in the tournament where superstars tend to carry the day (probably because they give "more room for error" to compensate for bad luck, difficult matchups, or off days).
 

Purdue Grad in Texas

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Mar 22, 2010
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Truthfully, that was probably the best lineup Purdue has ever had if you’re talking purely being built for success in the tournament. Edwards - the superior talented guard who put the team on his shoulders when needed, Eastern - a physical, athletic guard capable of guarding the opponents best guard and locking them down. Cline - 3 point specialist. Haarms - a mobile, athletic big who could run pick and roll and defend pick and roll while being somewhat of a rim protector and rebounder. Eifert - the steady glue guy, role player. The only lineup that has even come close to that good would have been in 2010 with a healthy Hummel.

IMHO - 2010/2011 (with Hummel in the NCAA tournament) would have topped all the line-ups.......there would have been a LOT of flexibility/options for CMP and the team...I'll leave it at that.

C'est la vie.....
 

ehuffma1

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The 2018 team with Edwards was an ideal tournament team - a solid team with solid role players and a superstar guard who can get white hot. It was a rare reversal for Purdue, which usually fields more balanced talent across the lineup and achieves more regular season accolades but runs into problems in the tournament where superstars tend to carry the day (probably because they give "more room for error" to compensate for bad luck, difficult matchups, or off days).
Haarms and Nojel were as close to lock down defenders as you get these days. Edwards and Cline were difficult matchups offensively. Eifert was super efficient. The bench was pretty good. Very good tournament team for sure.

I do think Purdue could put together a really good team in the next few years. I think at least part of that equation has to be defense. The other piece that I see missing sometimes in Painter’s is the athletic ability to keep up with some of those top ten teams.
 
Mar 28, 2022
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Which programs that Purdue competes with recruiting-wise would be the closest comps for March Madness during Painter's tenure?
 

bonefish1

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Quite a contrast from the Elite Eight drought:

Michigan 2022
MSU 2019
Purdue 2019
Wisconsin 2015
OSU 2013
Illinois 2005
Indiana 2002
Maryland 2002
Minnesota 1990
Iowa 1987
Rutgers 1976
PSU 1954
Nebraska n/a
Northwestern n/a
No one cares about the E8 except the teams that played and lost.
 
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FirstDownB

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No one cares about the E8 except the teams that played and lost.
Meh. A lot of people don't care about final four teams either. I nearly forgot about Auburn and that's only been a few years. There are a small handful of teams that are memorable mostly because they make it on a regular basis.
 

rgarlitz

Senior
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You don't need to remember the Keady days they were the same as the Painter days. Solid teams that played hard with a couple of Elite eight games for the career. Now the couple of Lee Rose years that's a different story.
I don't think that's entirely true. Neither coach has gotten Purdue to the Final Four; I get that. And both coaches have had their share of disappointing upset losses. But, Painter has been significantly better at getting Purdue to the second weekend. Gene got Purdue there 5 times in 17 NCAA tournaments. Painter has gotten Purdue there 6 times in 13 appearances. That trajectory, at least, seems to be pointing in the right direction.
 

bonefish1

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Meh. A lot of people don't care about final four teams either. I nearly forgot about Auburn and that's only been a few years. There are a small handful of teams that are memorable mostly because they make it on a regular basis.
But, i can guarantee every team hangs a banner for a Final Four appearance.
 
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tjreese

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I see this narrative about Painter always underperforming in March, which I've never understood. Maybe I'm not old enough to remember the Keady days and that's why. If you look at Purdue's recent tournament results, they've more or less slightly outperformed their seed's expectation with 2 disappointments (2016 and 2021) and 2 good surprises (2009, 2019). For as much as people talk about early exits to Little Rock and North Texas, advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed (34.0%) and the Elite 8 (25.7%) as a 3 Seed were actually just as unlikely.

2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84

Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)

Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.

My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.

And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."
Can't really find fault with anything you say or the logic you use...and IF I did that wouldn't mean I was right! ;) I had never looked at how the odds for seeds was obtained, but there is no question that talent and some luck are very important in this narrow window of playing time
 
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Sep 14, 2009
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Meh. A lot of people don't care about final four teams either. I nearly forgot about Auburn and that's only been a few years. There are a small handful of teams that are memorable mostly because they make it on a regular basis.
This👆🏻

Only the fans of the teams that make it care. The rest is simply marketing to sell something. IU fans are the perfect example. They have been MISERABLE for nearly two decades trying to keep score on first world “achievements”.

Enjoy the ride and when it’s done, reflect and move on. Too many, actual, important topics to care about.
 
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Oct 15, 2021
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Truthfully, that was probably the best lineup Purdue has ever had if you’re talking purely being built for success in the tournament. Edwards - the superior talented guard who put the team on his shoulders when needed, Eastern - a physical, athletic guard capable of guarding the opponents best guard and locking them down. Cline - 3 point specialist. Haarms - a mobile, athletic big who could run pick and roll and defend pick and roll while being somewhat of a rim protector and rebounder. Eifert - the steady glue guy, role player. The only lineup that has even come close to that good would have been in 2010 with a healthy Hummel.
Best Purdue basketball post I have read, the truth stands out. Need more centers like JaJuan Johnson and Matt Haarms.
 
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Boiler8285

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Quite a contrast from the Elite Eight drought:

Michigan 2022
MSU 2019
Purdue 2019
Wisconsin 2015
OSU 2013
Illinois 2005
Indiana 2002
Maryland 2002
Minnesota 1990
Iowa 1987
Rutgers 1976
PSU 1954
Nebraska n/a
Northwestern n/a
Kind of makes the point that neither Keady nor Painter could win that big game.
 

Boiler8285

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Truthfully, that was probably the best lineup Purdue has ever had if you’re talking purely being built for success in the tournament. Edwards - the superior talented guard who put the team on his shoulders when needed, Eastern - a physical, athletic guard capable of guarding the opponents best guard and locking them down. Cline - 3 point specialist. Haarms - a mobile, athletic big who could run pick and roll and defend pick and roll while being somewhat of a rim protector and rebounder. Eifert - the steady glue guy, role player. The only lineup that has even come close to that good would have been in 2010 with a healthy Hummel.
Ever had? The 1980 team was pretty solid and don't forget the Rick Mount years.
 
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boilermc

Gold Member
Feb 27, 2013
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I see this narrative about Painter always underperforming in March, which I've never understood. Maybe I'm not old enough to remember the Keady days and that's why. If you look at Purdue's recent tournament results, they've more or less slightly outperformed their seed's expectation with 2 disappointments (2016 and 2021) and 2 good surprises (2009, 2019). For as much as people talk about early exits to Little Rock and North Texas, advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed (34.0%) and the Elite 8 (25.7%) as a 3 Seed were actually just as unlikely.

2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84

Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)

Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.

My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.

And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."
I think that that was the OP point, that Painter was exceeding seeding expectations: 17.53 wins compared 17 seeded. Maybe that isn’t the expectations you were talking about, but that was OP’s point in starting the thread.
 

bonefish1

All-American
Oct 4, 2004
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So, are we basically saying that in the tourney, Painter usually beats who he’s supposed to and loses to who he’s supposed to and periodically gets upset big time?
 

boilermc

Gold Member
Feb 27, 2013
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So, are we basically saying that in the tourney, Painter usually beats who he’s supposed to and loses to who he’s supposed to and periodically gets upset big time?
The average is pretty close, slightly favoring winning more the seed allocated, 17.53 to 17. It might be more fair to say that his teams have had as many seeded upsets as they have been seeded upsetted in looking at a volume and rank setting. Did I state that clear as mud? :)
 

bonefish1

All-American
Oct 4, 2004
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The average is pretty close, slightly favoring winning more the seed allocated, 17.53 to 17. It might be more fair to say that his teams have had as many seeded upsets as they have been seeded upsetted in looking at a volume and rank setting. Did I state that clear as mud? :)
That's not what the reality says though.
If I'm not mistaken, Painter has only beat 1 team seeded 2 or more spots higher in the tourney (8/9 games are essentially toss ups).
 

Purdue Grad in Texas

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That's not what the reality says though.
If I'm not mistaken, Painter has only beat 1 team seeded 2 or more spots higher in the tourney (8/9 games are essentially toss ups).

You are not mistaken....2012, - 10-seed Purdue beat 7-seed St. Mary's.

Purdue under Matt Painter has also faced five 1-seeds (Florida 2007, UConn 2009, Duke 2010, Kansas 2017, and Virginia 2019) and lost them all. They also lost to a 2-seed (Kansas 2012) and 3-seed twice (Xavier 2008, Tx Tech 2018). CMP has also lost to four double-digit seeds:

2022 (St. Peters - 15)
2021 (North Texas - 13)
2016 (Arkansas Little Rock - 12)
2011 (Virginia Commonwealth - 11)

I'm still very supportive of the program and Matt Painter.....I think he has recruiting and other aspects in the right direction. He's also a very good representative for the University, runs a clean program with integrity, and truly cares about his players' futures on and off the court.

Candidly, however, his NCAA record is not what you'd hope for. Now, it's not as bad as some tend to think, but it's not great either, IMO. They've had some tough draws and some good draws......big letdowns and some really close calls, but in the end - the results speak for themselves.

If you have the right team and enough opportunities, eventually the door will open or you have to kick it down....I still think it will happen, but I understand those who are frustrated, impatient, or don't think Matt Painter is the right answer if you're basing it on NCAA tourney success.

Let's see what this year's team does......maybe there will be some pleasant surprises.
 

tjreese

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You are not mistaken....2012, - 10-seed Purdue beat 7-seed St. Mary's.

Purdue under Matt Painter has also faced five 1-seeds (Florida 2007, UConn 2009, Duke 2010, Kansas 2017, and Virginia 2019) and lost them all. They also lost to a 2-seed (Kansas 2012) and 3-seed twice (Xavier 2008, Tx Tech 2018). CMP has also lost to four double-digit seeds:

2022 (St. Peters - 15)
2021 (North Texas - 13)
2016 (Arkansas Little Rock - 12)
2011 (Virginia Commonwealth - 11)

I'm still very supportive of the program and Matt Painter.....I think he has recruiting and other aspects in the right direction. He's also a very good representative for the University, runs a clean program with integrity, and truly cares about his players' futures on and off the court.

Candidly, however, his NCAA record is not what you'd hope for. Now, it's not as bad as some tend to think, but it's not great either, IMO. They've had some tough draws and some good draws......big letdowns and some really close calls, but in the end - the results speak for themselves.

If you have the right team and enough opportunities, eventually the door will open or you have to kick it down....I still think it will happen, but I understand those who are frustrated, impatient, or don't think Matt Painter is the right answer if you're basing it on NCAA tourney success.

Let's see what this year's team does......maybe there will be some pleasant surprises.
A lot of truth in what you said. I think the questions in everyone’s mind that cares are the following: Who is more crucial for the tourney results? Coach? Players? Refs? Seedings? Then what reasoning took place to form your opinion? You can’t directly control seedings (& match-ups) or refs, so perhaps the coaches and players should be the focal point? Do you believe a coach changes his approach or decision making process in the tourney from the previous almost 30 games? If so, why? Or do you think it is the players that change? If so, why?

In a game that has a lot of moving parts it is hard to quantify a single variable for the results in a small window of time different than the larger window of time…a lot of variables in play…such is the case in comparing studies in humans verus machines...
 
Oct 15, 2021
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How much longer do you wait?
My opinion, bring back Cuonzo Martin as lead recruiter and watch what happens. JaJuan Johnson was the key to getting Moore, Hummel, and Martin to follow suit. That team was as close to a Final Four lock in 2010 as there ever will be before Hummel went down. And JaJuan said over and over again that Cuonzo was his guy all the way to his Purdue commitment.

If Cuonzo is not brought back, then the question gets tougher. I say give Painter 5 more years.

If there is no Purdue Final Four (or more) by April 2027, then Purdue needs a change.

Painter would have been given 22 years. That is more than fair.

Purdue fan first. Painter fan second.
 
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bonefish1

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My opinion, bring back Cuonzo Martin as lead recruiter and watch what happens. JaJuan Johnson was the key to getting Moore, Hummel, and Martin to follow suit. That team was as close to a Final Four lock in 2010 as there ever will be before Hummel went down. And JaJuan said over and over again that Cuonzo was his guy all the way to his Purdue commitment.

If Cuonzo is not brought back, then the question gets tougher. I say give Painter 5 more years.

If there is no Purdue Final Four (or more) by April 2027, then Purdue needs a change.

Painter would have been given 22 years. That is more than fair.

Purdue fan first. Painter fan second.
I think that's a reasonable take. I'm also in agreement that you need to bring in a top notch recruiter (and obviously pay them well) and now you also have to be competitive from an NIL perspective because top 25 or top 50 (not sure where the line is drawn) players are probably looking for some comp.
If Painter doesn't have a FF or NC by year 22, I'm good with them making a change.
When they do, I hope they get someone from outside the program. Inject some new blood, new culture.
 
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johnboiler123

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Jul 23, 2020
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How much longer do you wait?
I think a few more years tops if he can't get to a final four. Recruiting has pretty much gone down hill after furst and Kaufman. We've been accepting way too many commitments from kids that have literally zero offers from any other p5 schools lately. And in year 17(?) it's honestly a joke how weak our back court is. NIL is only going to make it harder on painter. I would have no problem with bringing in someone brand new who will be used to recruiting in the NIL landscape.