A big concern for our team heading into March

[tjreese]

Exactly. Pretty much every shooter is going to be below his average about half the time, given a large enough sample.

You are a very solid poster and so this is not for you necessarily, but a bit of clarification on this thread in general.

To nuance this a bit for accuracy even though I know the intent was generally well founded-the individual data points may or may not have half the data below or above the average, but the magnitude of those data points will have the data average value above and below the . 0,0,0 4 has 3 data points below 1 and 1 data point above one.

The data must also contain all historical data for those data points to have the best chance to fall roughly half above and below rather than any particular individual sample size “IF” there was not an assignable cause prior to of after some line of reference that altered the inherent population. An example of this would be the “possibility” of say Fletcher’s data behind the arc this year when Lance is not on the court and the D can concentrate of 2 perimeter players instead of 3…especially if the opposition doesn’t have a strong perimeter defender past two players and the third player is their mostly offensive player.

Lastly, if a team shoots 33% behind the arc and yet can shoot 50% inside the arc, that team assuming there is no reason why they can’t shoot effectively 50% inside the arc the whole game should. The math in 12 shots is equal, but the inside the arc has the opportunity to draw fouls and should generally allow less runouts.

Still as you implied is it highly unlikely...like maybe never that an individual shoot his average “inside a particular game” when the average is the cumulation of all data just due to large difference in potential percentage of makes with such limited shots and so any player that has some amount of data will always shoot inside a game above or below his average up to that point.

 

[qazplm]

Anyone with a clue grasps the relationship between dead legs and poor shooting.
But you stay on your tack.

Again the problem last year preceded dead legs

 

[BoilerDaddy]

You are a very solid poster and so this is not for you necessarily, but a bit of clarification on this thread in general.

To nuance this a bit for accuracy even though I know the intent was generally well founded-the individual data points may or may not have half the data below or above the average, but the magnitude of those data points will have the data average value above and below the . 0,0,0 4 has 3 data points below 1 and 1 data point above one.

The data must also contain all historical data for those data points to have the best chance to fall roughly half above and below rather than any particular individual sample size “IF” there was not an assignable cause prior to of after some line of reference that altered the inherent population. An example of this would be the “possibility” of say Fletcher’s data behind the arc this year when Lance is not on the court and the D can concentrate of 2 perimeter players instead of 3…especially if the opposition doesn’t have a strong perimeter defender past two players and the third player is their mostly offensive player.

Lastly, if a team shoots 33% behind the arc and yet can shoot 50% inside the arc, that team assuming there is no reason why they can’t shoot effectively 50% inside the arc the whole game should. The math in 12 shots is equal, but the inside the arc has the opportunity to draw fouls and should generally allow less runouts.

Still as you implied is it highly unlikely...like maybe never that an individual shoot his average “inside a particular game” when the average is the cumulation of all data just due to large difference in potential percentage of makes with such limited shots and so any player that has some amount of data will always shoot inside a game above or below his average up to that point.

I agree that in most data sets the mean and median tend to be different because extreme values tend to pull the mean in one direction or the other, but this is not a distribution where I would expect them to diverge by much.

To me, what it really comes down to is that defenses have to game plan for Fletch. If his man is helping, someone better be accounting for Fletch. This allows Purdue to get more of those high percentage opportunities at the rim that lead to lots of fouls.

 

[qazplm]

My temptation is to be critical of your data selection and the way that you presented it, as I don't agree with your approach to either, but you raise some good points and led me to look at a separate data point, which I think may be driving the perception of Fletcher's performance as 'streaky'.

Fletcher has been much worse from deep this season in games where he has shot fewer than four 3pt attempts (specifically in games where he's taken three attempts) compared to games where he take four shots or more. In the 13 games where he has taken four or more threes he's shooting over 49% from deep and has shot 40% or better in 9 of those 13 (nearly 70%) of those games. Those are elite numbers, both in terms of overall shooting percentage and consistency.

In the seven games where he's taken three 3 pointers (his numbers are actually pretty good where he's taken 1 or 2 threes), he's shot either 0% (3 times) or 33% (3 times) in six of those seven games. Now some of that is just math, as mathematically you'd expect the most common outcome for a 40% three point shooter on three attempts to be 1 for 3 and that's been the result in three of those seven games. Where he's struggled is that 1) there are too many 0 for 3 games and you'd expect more 2 for 3 games (one) and 3 for 3 games (zero). Again, 4 of 24 games where he legitimately shoots poorly (below 30%) is pretty darn good, but to your point, there are some legitimate questions to be asked in those games where he's been below average on low volume.

• MP and staff should, and probably have, looked at why there's such a difference in the numbers between when Fletch shoots three 3's versus 4 or more and figure out:
  • Do they need to run more stuff for Fletch or get him to be more assertive because he's shooting it so much better in games where he has more attempts?
  • Does he actually need to shoot it less in those games because teams are selling out to take away his good looks and he's shooting a lower percentage because he's forcing bad shots?
  • He could be taking the exact right number of shots in that maybe he just doesn't have 'it' in those three games where he's 0 for 3.
  • It may be that the sample size is just too small to come to a conclusion given the number of other variables.

I agree with your assessment that we're fortunate to have other players shooting it well so that when teams sell out to take Fletch's three point opportunities away or he has an off game, there are others who can pick up the slack.

See, now this is actual analysis, not oh no he's criticizing a player, let me react.

You could very much be correct and that the problem in the games where Loyer isn't contributing from three (and part of the issue here is that's one of the, if not the biggest assets he potentially brings to a game unlike Smith with assists and overall scoring and Jones with defense) could simply boil down to lack of aggressiveness. You could also be correct that one or two of those games boils down to a correct read that he's off tonight don't force it. I don't think it's necessarily focus on him. It feels like we've been doing an excellent job of manufacturing open shots for everyone this season to me.

No one is expecting anyone to hit all of the time. What I don't agree with is the claim that elite shooters shoot below average half the time. But there is a real pattern for a player who is legit our shooting guard. Feast or a sack lunch.

I can look at the last game where he turned down IIRC at least two wide open threes that I was like shoot that! The announcers even said the same on one of them. So I do think sometimes he could be more like Jones in his aggressiveness.

Again much of this is a pretty big overreaction to a pretty mild critique. I haven't called for him to lose one minute of playing time. I'm not one of those Colvin for Loyer people. As much as Loyer is the weakest link on defense he far surpasses Colvin right now and his issue is solely athleticism, his clear knowledge of how to play defense seems high to me given the surprising number of steals and deflections he gets.

I've also repeatedly said I think his driving ability between last year and this year is much improved. It's an element either he didn't have last season or didn't use as much but it probably won us a couple games this year.

 

[choptalk]

I don't think we lost last tourney because of fatigue. We lost because we were inconsistent from shooting from outside and prone to games where we shot horribly.

The idea/hope is that this team hasn't, thus far, shown that level of shooting just going ice cold nearly as much as last season.

The shooting got bad because their legs were shot.

 

[purduedavie]

I don't think we lost last tourney because of fatigue. We lost because we were inconsistent from shooting from outside and prone to games where we shot horribly.

The idea/hope is that this team hasn't, thus far, shown that level of shooting just going ice cold nearly as much as last season.

Purdue wasn’t talent wise a 1 seed last year, they had 2 Frosh guards and were light on shooting and ball handling, guards are a year older this year aided by a 5th year Sr that plays great defense and can shoot it. You try to win every game you play, I want to win every tourney they’re in.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

The shooting got bad because their legs were shot.

There's always the silver lining/glass half full perspective - If someone could just figure out a way to duplicate the accuracy with the way Purdue shoots itself in the foot to the FG attempts - they'd be unstoppable!

 

[qazplm]

Purdue wasn’t talent wise a 1 seed last year, they had 2 Frosh guards and were light on shooting and ball handling, guards are a year older this year aided by a 5th year Sr that plays great defense and can shoot it. You try to win every game you play, I want to win every tourney they’re in.

I mean I haven't said anything different. My whole point has been that issues that were present last year aren't nearly as present this year.

 

[qazplm]

The shooting got bad because their legs were shot.

The shooting was bad before that.

 

[boilerzz]

The shooting was bad before that.

Shooting got bad when Fletcher Loyer got strains in both of his calves and Mason Gillis had to wear a back brace. Both happened well before the tournament.

 

[northside100]

See, now this is actual analysis, not oh no he's criticizing a player, let me react.

You could very much be correct and that the problem in the games where Loyer isn't contributing from three (and part of the issue here is that's one of the, if not the biggest assets he potentially brings to a game unlike Smith with assists and overall scoring and Jones with defense) could simply boil down to lack of aggressiveness. You could also be correct that one or two of those games boils down to a correct read that he's off tonight don't force it. I don't think it's necessarily focus on him. It feels like we've been doing an excellent job of manufacturing open shots for everyone this season to me.

No one is expecting anyone to hit all of the time. What I don't agree with is the claim that elite shooters shoot below average half the time. But there is a real pattern for a player who is legit our shooting guard. Feast or a sack lunch.

I can look at the last game where he turned down IIRC at least two wide open threes that I was like shoot that! The announcers even said the same on one of them. So I do think sometimes he could be more like Jones in his aggressiveness.

Again much of this is a pretty big overreaction to a pretty mild critique. I haven't called for him to lose one minute of playing time. I'm not one of those Colvin for Loyer people. As much as Loyer is the weakest link on defense he far surpasses Colvin right now and his issue is solely athleticism, his clear knowledge of how to play defense seems high to me given the surprising number of steals and deflections he gets.

I've also repeatedly said I think his driving ability between last year and this year is much improved. It's an element either he didn't have last season or didn't use as much but it probably won us a couple games this year.

Agree with some of this, disagree with some, which is fine. It seems pretty obvious to me that some teams make it a priority to not allow Fletch open looks, but I don't have data to prove that out.

I do question your assumption that it's unusual for excellent shooters (I don't think I'm ready to call Fletcher elite) who shoot at a moderate volume to have a significant number of games where they shoot below 35%. Again, it's just math that in an individual game a 40% shooter who takes three shots would be expected to most frequently go 1 for 3. I looked at a few data points in the NBA and it seems that top shooters who shoot at a moderate volume (guys like Tyus Jones and Jalen Williams who average 4 or 5 threes a game) have a higher percentage of games where they shoot 33% or worse than high volume guys (Curry, DiVincenzo, etc.), which shouldn't be surprising.

 

[boilerzz]

A look at the top 10 guys nationally who've shot 100 or more 3's this season and Fletch:

Fletcher Loyer (Purdue) - 43.0%. 10 of 24 games at 33% or less

Reed Sheppard (UK) - 51.9% from 3 on the season. 7 of 24 games at 33% or less
Koby Brea (Dayton) - 48.9%. 8 of 24 games at 33% or less
Dj Richards (McNeese) - 47.6%. 6 of 21 games at 33% or less
Isaac McNeely (UVA) - 47.3%. 10 of 24 games
Johnell Davis (FAU) - 47.0%. 10 of 24 games
Treyvion Tennesson (TCU) - 45.6%. 7 of 24 games
Xzavier Brown (St Joes) - 45.2%. 9 of 25 games
Michael Jones (Stanford) - 45.1%. 9 of 23 games
Brycen Goodine (Fairfield) - 45.1%. 8 of 20 games

Fletch is at the high end when compared to the most elite shooters of college basketball but it's far from a statistical outlier.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

A look at the top 10 guys nationally who've shot 100 or more 3's this season and Fletch:

Fletcher Loyer (Purdue) - 43.0%. 10 of 24 games at 33% or less

Reed Sheppard (UK) - 51.9% from 3 on the season. 7 of 24 games at 33% or less
Koby Brea (Dayton) - 48.9%. 8 of 24 games at 33% or less
Dj Richards (McNeese) - 47.6%. 6 of 21 games at 33% or less
Isaac McNeely (UVA) - 47.3%. 10 of 24 games
Johnell Davis (FAU) - 47.0%. 10 of 24 games
Treyvion Tennesson (TCU) - 45.6%. 7 of 24 games
Xzavier Brown (St Joes) - 45.2%. 9 of 25 games
Michael Jones (Stanford) - 45.1%. 9 of 23 games
Brycen Goodine (Fairfield) - 45.1%. 8 of 20 games

Fletch is at the high end when compared to the most elite shooters of college basketball but it's far from a statistical outlier.

Yep and this is not surprising. If I have a game where I flip a coin 3 times with a head considered success and a tail considered a failure, I will have one chance out of eight of having 3 failures and one chance out of eight of having 3 successes. It’s going to be similar with shooting threes. Randomness often looks like streakiness.

 

[Dryfly88]

I could be completely wrong here, but I think maybe some of the feeling of streakiness is not so much the 3 point shooting as it is total points scored per game. His big scoring nights are so high that when he scores 8 it seems "streaky". I don't have the desire to do any research, but I'm wondering if other 11ppg guys have the highs and lows like he does? Or are they closer to their average ppg each night, if that makes sense?

 

[tjreese]

I agree that in most data sets the mean and median tend to be different because extreme values tend to pull the mean in one direction or the other, but this is not a distribution where I would expect them to diverge by much.

To me, what it really comes down to is that defenses have to game plan for Fletch. If his man is helping, someone better be accounting for Fletch. This allows Purdue to get more of those high percentage opportunities at the rim that lead to lots of fouls.

It is just not extreme variables, but assignable causes can also change an old average to a new average. You basically said this with some teams helping off Fletch versus other teams not helping off Fletch. There are other variables at play that could do the same thing, but that is the point. How comfortable inside a game do you believe the collective team (or individuals) shoot "average or better" knowing that the previous data that created the now used average may not contain the same variables or weighting of such. I believe both coaches can add to or subtract from the inherent variation inside a player or players metrics as a function of what they do in attempting to defend or attack the other team. If that happens and I believe it does, it serves to reason that quite possibly the previous data average may be off in a given game. Naturally as the season goes on you accumulate more of these sources of variation into your data and create a better average is NOTHING else of importance changes.

I essentially do not believe that the cumulative data on a metric has an homogenous population, but has many smaller populations in play, but considered one population. If you took blood pressure checks you would find variation among the many readings you would take. This would be different by day and inside each day. Together over time you would have an average different than the individual readings, but the readings would tend to cluster about the average. Then if you took effective blood pressure medicine (assignable cause), no doubt you would have a new average different than the previous average and if you quit taking blood pressure medicine then that average would be different than when you took blood pressure medicine and more than likely different that your average before starting various blood pressure medicine due to "new" assignable causes such as the effect getting older...smoking...diabetes and so forth. Again, not directed at you, but just expressing thoughts inside this thread it is important to understand what data may say and what it may not say. Not grasping this effectively is what leads to the comment about statistics lying or you can make them out to say what you want. That simply isn't true. It is our inability to grasp assumptions that may be in play.

Over the years I've had various work in plastic molding helping molders. There, it is easy to show that cavity 1 may produce a different result that cavity 8. When the tool was made the cad data attempted to make cavity 1 just like 8 when cut, but there was always some cutting tolerance in play. If the mold had 8 total cavities and you grabbed less than eight you obviously didn't grab from all the different populations for your average and if you grabbed 8 or more you still may not have all the cavities populations or correct weighting and such. If the cavity populations were different (say an F-test difference) then it is 100% true that the "population" variation is larger than the individual populations. Unless there is interest in any of this I'll stop here. But when you hear that water will find its level as a phrase to indicate the shooting will return to some average, that can be true, but is not a given due to many things.

 

[tjreese]

Yep and this is not surprising. If I have a game where I flip a coin 3 times with a head considered success and a tail considered a failure, I will have one chance out of eight of having 3 failures and one chance out of eight of having 3 successes. It’s going to be similar with shooting threes. Randomness often looks like streakiness.

and the trick is to be able to understand inherent variation that exists or what you call randomness against assignable causes that may alter previous understandings

 

[tjreese]

I could be completely wrong here, but I think maybe some of the feeling of streakiness is not so much the 3 point shooting as it is total points scored per game. His big scoring nights are so high that when he scores 8 it seems "streaky". I don't have the desire to do any research, but I'm wondering if other 11ppg guys have the highs and lows like he does? Or are they closer to their average ppg each night, if that makes sense?

see if this is what you are thinking. Assuming Fletch is hot and cold and we took all his data and converted the binomial or normalized it to treat it as a normal curve. We would have an average and variation about the average with a shape similar to a normal curve by calculating it.

However, if we "graphed" the data or say made a histogram we might have a picture much different than the calculation would show. If the data was actually bimodal, then the calculated average would not be the same as each curve's average and is only represented by the crossover of the tails such as below

 

[boilerzz]

see if this is what you are thinking. Assuming Fletch is hot and cold and we took all his data and converted the binomial or normalized it to treat it as a normal curve. We would have an average and variation about the average with a shape similar to a normal curve by calculating it.

However, if we "graphed" the data or say made a histogram we might have a picture much different than the calculation would show. If the data was actually bimodal, then the calculated average would not be the same as each curve's average and is only represented by the crossover of the tails such as below

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

We need to look at performance vs. the median percentages just to see those variances, too. Haha.

 

[tjreese]

We need to look at performance vs. the median percentages just to see those variances, too. Haha.

View embedded media

putting in my contacts and leaving in 5 minutes. Enjoy the game. It is Dave Schellhase bobble head night.

 

[qazplm]

A look at the top 10 guys nationally who've shot 100 or more 3's this season and Fletch:

Fletcher Loyer (Purdue) - 43.0%. 10 of 24 games at 33% or less

Reed Sheppard (UK) - 51.9% from 3 on the season. 7 of 24 games at 33% or less
Koby Brea (Dayton) - 48.9%. 8 of 24 games at 33% or less
Dj Richards (McNeese) - 47.6%. 6 of 21 games at 33% or less
Isaac McNeely (UVA) - 47.3%. 10 of 24 games
Johnell Davis (FAU) - 47.0%. 10 of 24 games
Treyvion Tennesson (TCU) - 45.6%. 7 of 24 games
Xzavier Brown (St Joes) - 45.2%. 9 of 25 games
Michael Jones (Stanford) - 45.1%. 9 of 23 games
Brycen Goodine (Fairfield) - 45.1%. 8 of 20 games

Fletch is at the high end when compared to the most elite shooters of college basketball but it's far from a statistical outlier.

He's both at the high end of subpar shooting and at the low end of percentage.

Look, no one said he sucks. And no one said he shouldn't shoot. But yes, he is a player that has more games where he contributes nothing from three than he should for a guy whose top asset if you will is three point shooting.

I mean Smith and Jones are probably somewhat streaky too, but the difference is they provide assists, rebounds and a lot of twos in the former, and lockdown defense in the latter.

As someone else said, some of that streakiness may be either his not being aggressive and not taking a lot of shots, or it might be other things.

If I pull up ESPN (first of all Loyer doesn't show up which is obviously a glitch because he absolutely should show up and I don't know why he doesn't), the top three point shooters by percentage are averaging 6-7 three pt attempts per game, Loyer is taking 4 a game. And many of the top ten, at least roughly half their shots are from three.

As someone else correctly said, part of the perception is because when he's not hitting from three, his scoring average is usually single digits. Looking at those same Top 10 three point shooters, they all are mid to high double digit scoring except one.

So there's real differences between those guys and Loyer. And when it comes to attempts, if I scroll all the way down to top 50, I still see 6-7 or more attempts from three. So I'm open to the idea that he should take MORE shots with the idea that he would hit them. But as it stands, right now, he's not as consistent as he could be or should be as the top three point threat on the team.

 

[qazplm]

I could be completely wrong here, but I think maybe some of the feeling of streakiness is not so much the 3 point shooting as it is total points scored per game. His big scoring nights are so high that when he scores 8 it seems "streaky". I don't have the desire to do any research, but I'm wondering if other 11ppg guys have the highs and lows like he does? Or are they closer to their average ppg each night, if that makes sense?

I think there's a relationship there sure. When he's not hitting from three, he doesn't seem to contribute much from a scoring perspective. When he is hitting from three, he seems to be much more aggressive on offense.

 

[Dryfly88]

see if this is what you are thinking. Assuming Fletch is hot and cold and we took all his data and converted the binomial or normalized it to treat it as a normal curve. We would have an average and variation about the average with a shape similar to a normal curve by calculating it.

However, if we "graphed" the data or say made a histogram we might have a picture much different than the calculation would show. If the data was actually bimodal, then the calculated average would not be the same as each curve's average and is only represented by the crossover of the tails such as below

Nope, that isn't what I was thinking

 

[qazplm]

Shooting got bad when Fletcher Loyer got strains in both of his calves and Mason Gillis had to wear a back brace. Both happened well before the tournament.

We shot 34 percent in conference, 30 percent nonconference, and 32 percent overall.

 

[Gman544]

So if we do fall off, we are starting from a higher plane. I don’t think the fall off will be significant or at all because of Jones. He has provided more rest for Smith, not minutes , but dealing with pressure and on defense. Jones adds a high volume three point shooter who shoots 35% but his shot selection has improved and he is shooting the three at 45% the last ten games.

 

[SKYDOG]

I wasn’t nervous about flying because I knew Billy Joel’s song about only the good die young, but it was more stressful than a typical day for me . Never thought about issues flying and sleeping in a different bed for the players before. Good points IMO

That’s what I tell my mother in law. Only the good die young so she should live another 20 years. She’s 93 now. lol!

 

[Bruce1]

The guys that ran into that wall aren't freshmen any more.
And theres Lance, who takes pressure off them at both ends.
As of right now, nobody is showing signs of fatigue.
So iI think it's a minor concern at this point, not a major one.
My guess is that as long as we have a multiple game lead in the standings we'll see more minutes for other guys.
Big 10 Champions may not mean as much to us these days. But i reckon to a 17 y/o recruit it's a much bigger deal. That begets future success.

Missing free throws isn’t a sign of physical and/or mental fatigue?

 

[northside100]

Missing free throws isn’t a sign of physical and/or mental fatigue?

I hope that fatigue is the problem with the foul shooting at this point. These are the dog days of a long season and Purdue is not playing anywhere near it's best basketball at this point, IMO. Hopefully this team can win the next three games (two on the road) where they'll be heavily favored and treat the MSU, at IL and Wisky games as a warm up for the post season.

I actually love the way that the schedule lines up with three games against three of the best teams in the conference at the end of the regular season schedule. Understandable why it's hard to be at your best vs MN, at OSU, etc. but you have to be able to get ups for MSU, IL and Wisconsin, even if you've already wrapped up the conference champion ship and use that as prep for the BTT and NCAAT.

UConn had a brutal January last year but won 12 of their last 13 and 15 of their last 17. Everyone goes through patches of not playing well, critical to be dialed in and playing your best basketball at the right time

 

[BoilerAndy]

Again the problem last year preceded dead legs

At what point did the dead legs occur? The data shows when the shooting began to fall off, but what did you see to conclude that dead legs occurred later?

 

[qazplm]

At what point did the dead legs occur? The data shows when the shooting began to fall off, but what did you see to conclude that dead legs occurred later?

We shot 30 percent in non conference, 34 percent in conference, 32 percent overall.

There's no statistically significant difference there from start to finish.

If we had started off the year high 30s then had a huge dropoff to end up at 32 percent for the year then I'd say, sure, we shot great until we got injured/fatigued.

But we more or less averaged low thirties all year. A few low 40 games were in there sure but we had games barely in the teens there too and that's JUST during the non conference season.

 

[BoilerAndy]

We shot 30 percent in non conference, 34 percent in conference, 32 percent overall.

There's no statistically significant difference there from start to finish.

If we had started off the year high 30s then had a huge dropoff to end up at 32 percent for the year then I'd say, sure, we shot great until we got injured/fatigued.

But we more or less averaged low thirties all year. A few low 40 games were in there sure but we had games barely in the teens there too and that's JUST during the non conference season.

Unfortunately, the last game of the season was a very poor shooting night for all of our shooters except Loyer. We may never know why.

 

[northside100]

We shot 30 percent in non conference, 34 percent in conference, 32 percent overall.

There's no statistically significant difference there from start to finish.

If we had started off the year high 30s then had a huge dropoff to end up at 32 percent for the year then I'd say, sure, we shot great until we got injured/fatigued.

But we more or less averaged low thirties all year. A few low 40 games were in there sure but we had games barely in the teens there too and that's JUST during the non conference season.

Is that true? Have you looked at the game logs or are you just looking at conference and non conference? Is that true across players or just in aggregate?

I'm not saying you're wrong, I honestly don't know and you may be 100% right, just making the point that aggregate statistics lie and the truth is in the mix and details.

 

[SCBoiler1]

I hope that fatigue is the problem with the foul shooting at this point. These are the dog days of a long season and Purdue is not playing anywhere near it's best basketball at this point, IMO. Hopefully this team can win the next three games (two on the road) where they'll be heavily favored and treat the MSU, at IL and Wisky games as a warm up for the post season.

I actually love the way that the schedule lines up with three games against three of the best teams in the conference at the end of the regular season schedule. Understandable why it's hard to be at your best vs MN, at OSU, etc. but you have to be able to get ups for MSU, IL and Wisconsin, even if you've already wrapped up the conference champion ship and use that as prep for the BTT and NCAAT.

UConn had a brutal January last year but won 12 of their last 13 and 15 of their last 17. Everyone goes through patches of not playing well, critical to be dialed in and playing your best basketball at the right time

Our game Thursday was only our third game in 16 days. We only had one game last week. I'm not sure that's the free throw issue.

Maybe we were just "rusty"?

 

[northside100]

Our game Thursday was only our third game in 16 days. We only had one game last week. I'm not sure that's the free throw issue.

Maybe we were just "rusty"?

You may be 100% right. I was referring more to mental fatigue and the cumulative effect of the season but I have no idea why the team has struggled with free throws in recent weeks.

 

[SCBoiler1]

You may be 100% right. I was referring more to mental fatigue and the cumulative effect of the season but I have no idea why the team has struggled with free throws in recent weeks.

To be serious. The free throw shooting issue is pretty much limited to TKR and Edey. Edey is down a little but from last year (73% to 70%) but right at his career average. TKR is having his problems. The issue seems more widespread because TKR and Edey take over half of Purdue's free throws. The next 4 guys average over 80% combined.

 

[BoilerAndy]

To be serious. The free throw shooting issue is pretty much limited to TKR and Edey. Edey is down a little but from last year (73% to 70%) but right at his career average. TKR is having his problems. The issue seems more widespread because TKR and Edey take over half of Purdue's free throws. The next 4 guys average over 80% combined.

Loyer was 1-3. He's usually money from the line. Maybe the rumored knee problem?

 

[qazplm]

Is that true? Have you looked at the game logs or are you just looking at conference and non conference? Is that true across players or just in aggregate?

I'm not saying you're wrong, I honestly don't know and you may be 100% right, just making the point that aggregate statistics lie and the truth is in the mix and details.

I looked at non conference game logs and then found a conference only number and we know the overall number.

I mean it makes sense given how close all three numbers track.

There were I believe three games in December that season that certainly helped to bring the average down but IIRC our best game in the non conference was only 41 percent but I'm just going off memory.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I looked at non conference game logs and then found a conference only number and we know the overall number.

I mean it makes sense given how close all three numbers track.

There were I believe three games in December that season that certainly helped to bring the average down but IIRC our best game in the non conference was only 41 percent but I'm just going off memory.

Best game last season in non-conference was West Virginia (8/17) - just over 47%.

 

[PUQBMan.]

Only one of these games is below 33 percent…

This post is just riddled with errors.
1. That’s 11 games, not 10, but I guess you can exclude the 0/0 for argument’s sake
2. One game is below 33%; there are 3 other games where he shot 33.3% (still only adds up to 4, not 5)
3. There are six games between 40-100%, not four.

I take back the positive connotation regarding Fletcher. He has been lost the past few games and needs to find the bench for an extended period of time.

 

[A. Ness]

The team is playing great heading into the NCAA Tournament coming up here in a month. Will get a #1 seed, but could be the #1 seed of the whole tournament again.

There is one thing that concerns me about this team. Last year, we would have won the NCAA tournament, if it had been played in December. As the year went on, that team just looked tired by the end of February into March.

I know this is a different year and this team has had more experience to get ready for another grinding season. However, this team is only playing the starting 5 and Gillis. Sure, Morton, Heide and a couple of others come in for a couple of minutes. We had a big lead at the end of the IU game, and our starters were still out there. I thought Loyer had hurt himself in the final 2 minutes.

Why Painter is not resting his starters more going into the biggest part of the entire season concerns me. Also, if one of our starters were to get into early foul trouble, that could be a big problem too. I wish we were rotating 8 to 9 guys right now to keep the team fresh and players use to different rotations.

Yes, it would be nice to have another BT Title and BT Tournament. However, we need to prove the talent of this team by getting to the FF minimum this year. That is what everyone really cares about.

Biggest concern is that Matt Painter coached teams always play down to the level of their opponent.