A big concern for our team heading into March

[KentuckyBoiler]

The team is playing great heading into the NCAA Tournament coming up here in a month. Will get a #1 seed, but could be the #1 seed of the whole tournament again.

There is one thing that concerns me about this team. Last year, we would have won the NCAA tournament, if it had been played in December. As the year went on, that team just looked tired by the end of February into March.

I know this is a different year and this team has had more experience to get ready for another grinding season. However, this team is only playing the starting 5 and Gillis. Sure, Morton, Heide and a couple of others come in for a couple of minutes. We had a big lead at the end of the IU game, and our starters were still out there. I thought Loyer had hurt himself in the final 2 minutes.

Why Painter is not resting his starters more going into the biggest part of the entire season concerns me. Also, if one of our starters were to get into early foul trouble, that could be a big problem too. I wish we were rotating 8 to 9 guys right now to keep the team fresh and players use to different rotations.

Yes, it would be nice to have another BT Title and BT Tournament. However, we need to prove the talent of this team by getting to the FF minimum this year. That is what everyone really cares about.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

The guys that ran into that wall aren't freshmen any more.
And theres Lance, who takes pressure off them at both ends.
As of right now, nobody is showing signs of fatigue.
So iI think it's a minor concern at this point, not a major one.
My guess is that as long as we have a multiple game lead in the standings we'll see more minutes for other guys.
Big 10 Champions may not mean as much to us these days. But i reckon to a 17 y/o recruit it's a much bigger deal. That begets future success.

 

[Boiler Buck]

The team is playing great heading into the NCAA Tournament coming up here in a month. Will get a #1 seed, but could be the #1 seed of the whole tournament again.

There is one thing that concerns me about this team. Last year, we would have won the NCAA tournament, if it had been played in December. As the year went on, that team just looked tired by the end of February into March.

I know this is a different year and this team has had more experience to get ready for another grinding season. However, this team is only playing the starting 5 and Gillis. Sure, Morton, Heide and a couple of others come in for a couple of minutes. We had a big lead at the end of the IU game, and our starters were still out there. I thought Loyer had hurt himself in the final 2 minutes.

Why Painter is not resting his starters more going into the biggest part of the entire season concerns me. Also, if one of our starters were to get into early foul trouble, that could be a big problem too. I wish we were rotating 8 to 9 guys right now to keep the team fresh and players use to different rotations.

Yes, it would be nice to have another BT Title and BT Tournament. However, we need to prove the talent of this team by getting to the FF minimum this year. That is what everyone really cares about.

It is a concern, as why I posted about this a couple times already. But in reality, I am more worried about CMPs hard practices than games. They only play twice a week.

 

[rsomm]

Painter is resting the team, shortened practices, more days off! Sorry Purdue plays to win, our boys want to win, PERIOD! They are not going to sacrifice effort, never, just to maybe make some Internet typing dude happy! You want to get to the final 4, you play to win each and every time you put that jersey on, you ask any player on the team and they will tell you exactly that!

 

[BoilerDeac]

The guys that ran into that wall aren't freshmen any more.
And theres Lance, who takes pressure off them at both ends.
As of right now, nobody is showing signs of fatigue.
So iI think it's a minor concern at this point, not a major one.
My guess is that as long as we have a multiple game lead in the standings we'll see more minutes for other guys.
Big 10 Champions may not mean as much to us these days. But i reckon to a 17 y/o recruit it's a much bigger deal. That begets future success.

I'd be willing to bet a recruit cares much more about NCAA tourney success than being Conf. Champs.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

I'd be willing to bet a recruit cares much more about NCAA tourney success than being Conf. Champs.

I never said I would trade one for the other.
You must know the regional prestige championships and the resulting t shirst and hats on fans at every level of sports that results.
Purdue sports memorabilia will do very well on sales of Back to Back Big 10 champs.
Hell, I still have my 3peat shirt somewhere.
It's a big deal.

 

[boilerzz]

The team is playing great heading into the NCAA Tournament coming up here in a month. Will get a #1 seed, but could be the #1 seed of the whole tournament again.

There is one thing that concerns me about this team. Last year, we would have won the NCAA tournament, if it had been played in December. As the year went on, that team just looked tired by the end of February into March.

I know this is a different year and this team has had more experience to get ready for another grinding season. However, this team is only playing the starting 5 and Gillis. Sure, Morton, Heide and a couple of others come in for a couple of minutes. We had a big lead at the end of the IU game, and our starters were still out there. I thought Loyer had hurt himself in the final 2 minutes.

Why Painter is not resting his starters more going into the biggest part of the entire season concerns me. Also, if one of our starters were to get into early foul trouble, that could be a big problem too. I wish we were rotating 8 to 9 guys right now to keep the team fresh and players use to different rotations.

Yes, it would be nice to have another BT Title and BT Tournament. However, we need to prove the talent of this team by getting to the FF minimum this year. That is what everyone really cares about.

These are 19-24 year olds. It less about fatigue than it is injury. We "wore down" last year because Gillis and Loyer were playing hurt and because Smith didn't have an opportunity to go through offseason conditioning prior to the season. And all of these guys are a year older and better conditioned.

Painter adjusts the practice time and intensity this time of the year and that's far more important than if a guy plays 30 vs 35 minutes in one or two games per week. If you think about it, guys spend up to 20 hours per week in basketball activities with each game counting 3 hours towards that limit. Do you really think an extra 5 minutes of playing time matters all that much in that context?

When you get into the tournament, the timeouts are extended, affording more rest for players. It's why you often see many of the better teams drop to a 7 man rotation and minutes go up for their better players.

 

[qazplm]

I don't think we lost last tourney because of fatigue. We lost because we were inconsistent from shooting from outside and prone to games where we shot horribly.

The idea/hope is that this team hasn't, thus far, shown that level of shooting just going ice cold nearly as much as last season.

 

[boilerzz]

I don't think we lost last tourney because of fatigue. We lost because we were inconsistent from shooting from outside and prone to games where we shot horribly.

The idea/hope is that this team hasn't, thus far, shown that level of shooting just going ice cold nearly as much as last season.

I think the three point shooting issue had a lot to do with injury. Gillis had back issues and Loyer had strains in both calves. We've seen how both of them can shoot when healthy.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

You could argue that right now last year was when the ship started to slow down for Purdue. The loss to Indinia in Bloomington made us 22-2, which we are right now. The rest of the regular season, especially the BTT, was quite the grind even though we won it. I feel like this team is vastly different right now than it was 12 months ago, mainly because of the guard play and rotation. I also think Gillis coming off the bench and then playing in crunch time without having logged 28 minutes is a sneaky good thing.

But it does remain to be seen.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Play to win the Painter is resting the team, shortened practices, more days off! Sorry Purdue plays to win, our boys want to win, PERIOD! They are not going to sacrifice effort, never, just to maybe make some Internet typing dude happy! You want to get to the final 4, you play to win each and every time you put that jersey on, you ask any player on the team and they will tell you exactly that!

 

[qazplm]

You could argue that right now last year was when the ship started to slow down for Purdue. The loss to Indinia in Bloomington made us 22-2, which we are right now. The rest of the regular season, especially the BTT, was quite the grind even though we won it. I feel like this team is vastly different right now than it was 12 months ago, mainly because of the guard play and rotation. I also think Gillis coming off the bench and then playing in crunch time without having logged 28 minutes is a sneaky good thing.

But it does remain to be seen.

Last year we shot 32 percent from three, this year 40. Last year, going into a cold spell in a game from long range wasn't surprising. Disappointing but not surprising. This year I think it would be surprising. We shoot better from three, make more baskets overall, and are on pace for more FTs and rebounds.

So I guess I just push back that the grind or injury were the sole reasons because we'd seen issues pop up throughout the season that we have barely seen this season. The team is simply better on offense. Some of that is Jones, some of it is Smith showing significant improvement. I don't think Loyer to be honest as improved all that much BUT Jones gives us the luxury that odds are one of them is going to be shooting well enough from three if the other one is not (and to be fair to Loyer, his drives look a lot better this season than last year).

TKR and Gillis have also both been more consistent on offense, and Heide is another guy who can in theory get hot. And yes, the guy everyone wants to start over Morton can score too.

 

[boilerzz]

You could argue that right now last year was when the ship started to slow down for Purdue. The loss to Indinia in Bloomington made us 22-2, which we are right now. The rest of the regular season, especially the BTT, was quite the grind even though we won it. I feel like this team is vastly different right now than it was 12 months ago, mainly because of the guard play and rotation. I also think Gillis coming off the bench and then playing in crunch time without having logged 28 minutes is a sneaky good thing.

But it does remain to be seen.

Yep, last year thru 24 games, Purdue was 5th in efficiency margin, 4th in OE, 15th in DE. They were shooting 33.9% from three, which wasn't good but was serviceable at 183rd nationally.

The rest of the season, we went 7-4, were 19th in efficiency margin (31st OE, 33rd DE) and shot 28.2% from three (345th nationally).

 

[icewind7]

This year, Purdue team is different from the past teams for 2 reasons, in my opinion.

(1) those teams (FDU, peacock, UNT) in tournament kept killing us with their lay ups, and we could not respond.
(2) always fell apart under pressure, which is not the case this year.

 

[Gman544]

Yep, last year thru 24 games, Purdue was 5th in efficiency margin, 4th in OE, 15th in DE. They were shooting 33.9% from three, which wasn't good but was serviceable at 183rd nationally.

The rest of the season, we went 7-4, were 19th in efficiency margin (31st OE, 33rd DE) and shot 28.2% from three (345th nationally).

How do you find this stuff out for a particular point in time? Is there a specific site you go to? I always wonder about these point in time comparisons, you seem to know how to find them.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

I don't think we lost last tourney because of fatigue. We lost because we were inconsistent from shooting from outside and prone to games where we shot horribly.

The idea/hope is that this team hasn't, thus far, shown that level of shooting just going ice cold nearly as much as last season.

Disagree. Our team had no legs by the end of the BTT. We looked terrible against Penn State.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

Lance is a huge difference. He takes so much pressure off the other 2 guards it's ridiculous. Imagine the extra work and frustration Fletcher would have to put in chasing the offensive guys that Lance does for him this seaon. Giving Braden the occasional blow bringing the ball up. Huge over a season. Big difference.

 

[qazplm]

Disagree. Our team had no legs by the end of the BTT. We looked terrible against Penn State.

I mean the numbers are what they are. We were 7 percentage points worse last year to this year BEFORE the slump started.

This is simply a better shooting and more consistent shooting team from long range. Significantly so.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Giving Braden the occasional blow bringing the ball up. Huge over a season. Big difference.

Should this be in the Arkansas thread?

 

[tjreese]

The guys that ran into that wall aren't freshmen any more.
And theres Lance, who takes pressure off them at both ends.
As of right now, nobody is showing signs of fatigue.
So iI think it's a minor concern at this point, not a major one.
My guess is that as long as we have a multiple game lead in the standings we'll see more minutes for other guys.
Big 10 Champions may not mean as much to us these days. But i reckon to a 17 y/o recruit it's a much bigger deal. That begets future success.

 

[WeatherMike]

I thought playing Edey into the final minute was ridiculous. Should have sat him with 5 to go at worst. Not only should we not risk him in garbage time, but Berg needs seasoning.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

I mean the numbers are what they are. We were 7 percentage points worse last year to this year BEFORE the slump started.

This is simply a better shooting and more consistent shooting team from long range. Significantly so.

Not disagreeing that we aren’t a better shooting team than last year.

But no one can tell me we weren’t drastically worn down by the end of the BTT. And that definitely made our shooting even worse.

 

[ToddFosterakadirty]

Some times this board only looks at Purdue in a vacuum. Look at the minutes starters are playing on other teams. Especially the good teams. Most are comparable or worse than Purdue.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Some times this board only looks at Purdue in a vacuum. Look at the minutes starters are playing on other teams. Especially the good teams. Most are comparable or worse than Purdue.

Just looked it up for myself, just with UConn:

Purdue:
Smith 32.9
Edey 30.8
Jones 27.6
Loyer 26.3

UConn:
Spencer 32.9
Newton 32.6
Karaban 31.3
Castle 26.2

 

[OneWayStreet]

The last several years there have been very low seeded teams who had studs playing great basketball. Somehow they are never covered in the press and nobody knows anything about them. Is anyone watching the non P5 conferences to see what is out there? From what I can tell there aren't the lighting in a bottle teams like St Peters.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Last year we shot 32 percent from three, this year 40. Last year, going into a cold spell in a game from long range wasn't surprising. Disappointing but not surprising. This year I think it would be surprising. We shoot better from three, make more baskets overall, and are on pace for more FTs and rebounds.

So I guess I just push back that the grind or injury were the sole reasons because we'd seen issues pop up throughout the season that we have barely seen this season. The team is simply better on offense. Some of that is Jones, some of it is Smith showing significant improvement. I don't think Loyer to be honest as improved all that much BUT Jones gives us the luxury that odds are one of them is going to be shooting well enough from three if the other one is not (and to be fair to Loyer, his drives look a lot better this season than last year).

TKR and Gillis have also both been more consistent on offense, and Heide is another guy who can in theory get hot. And yes, the guy everyone wants to start over Morton can score too.

I think that Loyer is significantly better this year. The big change for him is that his three point shooting percentage is up from 32.6% to 43%. That’s a huge difference for a player in Loyer’s role.

 

[boilerzz]

How do you find this stuff out for a particular point in time? Is there a specific site you go to? I always wonder about these point in time comparisons, you seem to know how to find them.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[qazplm]

I think that Loyer is significantly better this year. The big change for him is that his three point shooting percentage is up from 32.6% to 43%. That’s a huge difference for a player in Loyer’s role.

I think what I see is a guy who still plays pretty bad defense and who is either very much on fire or cold. I don't think he's regressed, and as I said, I think he's better at driving to the basket, but he definitely hasn't taken the leap Smith has.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

The last several years there have been very low seeded teams who had studs playing great basketball. Somehow they are never covered in the press and nobody knows anything about them. Is anyone watching the non P5 conferences to see what is out there? From what I can tell there aren't the lighting in a bottle teams like St Peters.

That's the thing about those teams. No one really knows about them before the tournament. Especially the ones that don't win their small conference regular season but upset a couple of teams to win their conference tourney.

 

[BoilerJS]

The last several years there have been very low seeded teams who had studs playing great basketball. Somehow they are never covered in the press and nobody knows anything about them. Is anyone watching the non P5 conferences to see what is out there? From what I can tell there aren't the lighting in a bottle teams like St Peters.

Covid,
We had 18 year old guards playing against 24-25 year olds.
Think back to your Freshman year at Purdue vs your Senior year.
Add 2 years after your Senior year and that's what those two freshman guards were up against.

 

[bonefish1]

I never said I would trade one for the other.
You must know the regional prestige championships and the resulting t shirst and hats on fans at every level of sports that results.
Purdue sports memorabilia will do very well on sales of Back to Back Big 10 champs.
Hell, I still have my 3peat shirt somewhere.
It's a big deal.

I disagree. I think to older fans, the conference championships mean more while NCAA tourney success is important to the younger fans and recruits.
Very few people outside the Purdue circle knows Purdue has won the most conf titles, but everyone who watches college basketball and the tourney knows Purdue struggles in March.

 

[boilerzz]

You could argue that right now last year was when the ship started to slow down for Purdue. The loss to Indinia in Bloomington made us 22-2, which we are right now. The rest of the regular season, especially the BTT, was quite the grind even though we won it. I feel like this team is vastly different right now than it was 12 months ago, mainly because of the guard play and rotation. I also think Gillis coming off the bench and then playing in crunch time without having logged 28 minutes is a sneaky good thing.

But it does remain to be seen.

A timely graphic:

 

[northside100]

I think what I see is a guy who still plays pretty bad defense and who is either very much on fire or cold. I don't think he's regressed, and as I said, I think he's better at driving to the basket, but he definitely hasn't taken the leap Smith has.

The data doesn't support your assertion that he's 'either very much on fire or cold'. In 74% of the 22 games this season in which he's taken a three he's shot 33% from deep or better. In 52% of those games he's shot 40% or better. He has four games where he's gone 0-for, going 0-2 once and 0-3 three times.

That wasn't the case last year, where he shot 25% or worse in 16 of 35 games and 40% or better in 12 of 35 games.

 

[qazplm]

The data doesn't support your assertion that he's 'either very much on fire or cold'. In 74% of the 22 games this season in which he's taken a three he's shot 33% from deep or better. In 52% of those games he's shot 40% or better. He has four games where he's gone 0-for, going 0-2 once and 0-3 three times.

That wasn't the case last year, where he shot 25% or worse in 16 of 35 games and 40% or better in 12 of 35 games.

I mean 33 percent isn't a sign of a great 3 pt shooter so I'm unclear why you picked that number.

40 percent certainly is. Which would seem to support the half the time he shoots great and half the time he doesn't idea.

I'd also note he's averaging almost exactly the same scoring average as last year.

 

[New Pal Boiler]

I mean 33 percent isn't a sign of a great 3 pt shooter so I'm unclear why you picked that number.

33 % certainly isn’t “cold”.

 

[PaBoiler78]

33 % certainly isn’t “cold”.

my main concern is FT shooting

 

[New Pal Boiler]

my main concern is FT shooting

Me too. Zach is really looking shaky at the stripe.

 

[northside100]

I mean 33 percent isn't a sign of a great 3 pt shooter so I'm unclear why you picked that number.

40 percent certainly is. Which would seem to support the half the time he shoots great and half the time he doesn't idea.

I'd also note he's averaging almost exactly the same scoring average as last year.

I picked 33% because your statement was that he's 'either very much on fire or cold' and unless you consider 33% to be 'cold', the data doesn't support your statement. Your sentiment was accurate regarding his performance last year, the data suggest that's not the case this year.

Regarding scoring average, I'm being sincere in saying that your comments are generally pretty intelligent, I don't think you'd be surprised to note that Fletch's usage is down starting along side Lance this year versus Ethan last year.

 

[*4purdue*]

I don't think we lost last tourney because of fatigue. We lost because we were inconsistent from shooting from outside and prone to games where we shot horribly.

The idea/hope is that this team hasn't, thus far, shown that level of shooting just going ice cold nearly as much as last season.

IDK.... this team hit a wall in February last year & didn't look like the same team it was in November. This year has been different, but it's only mid February, so hopefully we won't hit that same wall. I am concerned about the depth on this team. There are players that could be playing more, but CMP looks set on playing 6 with spot minutes for a few others. Hopefully that doesn't come back to bite us. I do think we're going to have a game in the tourney where we need a surprise performance from a Colvin, Furst etc... type player.

 

[qazplm]

I picked 33% because your statement was that he's 'either very much on fire or cold' and unless you consider 33% to be 'cold', the data doesn't support your statement. Your sentiment was accurate regarding his performance last year, the data suggest that's not the case this year.

Regarding scoring average, I'm being sincere in saying that your comments are generally pretty intelligent, I don't think you'd be surprised to note that Fletch's usage is down starting along side Lance this year versus Ethan last year.

I mean he's playing two minutes less per game. Again I'm not suggesting he's regressed, and I noted I thought adding more effective drives was a plus this season but overall I just don't see a leap forward. I'm not calling for him to be benched but the reality is if he's not hitting and I consider low 30s not hitting let's just say it's a good thing we have more outside shooting options for that eventuality than we did last season.