I see this narrative about Painter always underperforming in March, which I've never understood. Maybe I'm not old enough to remember the Keady days and that's why. If you look at Purdue's recent tournament results, they've more or less slightly outperformed their seed's expectation with 2 disappointments (2016 and 2021) and 2 good surprises (2009, 2019). For as much as people talk about early exits to Little Rock and North Texas, advancing to the Sweet 16 as a 5 Seed (34.0%) and the Elite 8 (25.7%) as a 3 Seed were actually just as unlikely.
2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84
Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)
Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.
My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.
And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."
2007 - 9 Seed (R32) - 9 Seed Odds of S16 (9.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2008 - 6 Seed (R32) - 6 Seed Odds of S16 (29.9%) | Average Wins: 1.05
2009 - 5 Seed (S16) - 5 Seed Odds of E8 (6.3%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2010 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of Elite 8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2011 - 3 Seed (R32) - 3 Seed Odds of S16 (52.1%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2012 - 10 Seed (R32) - 10 Seed Odds of S16 (16.0%) | Average Wins: 0.62
2015 - 9 Seed (R64) - 9 Seed Odds of R32 (50.7%) | Average Wins: 0.59
2016 - 5 Seed (R64) - 5 Seed Odds of R32 (64.6%) | Average Wins: 1.11
2017 - 4 Seed (S16) - 4 Seed Odds of E8 (14.6%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2018 - 2 Seed (S16) - 2 Seed Odds of E8 (45.1%) | Average Wins: 2.35
2019 - 3 Seed (E8) - 3 Seed Odds of F4 (11.8%) | Average Wins: 1.84
2021 - 4 Seed (R64) - 4 Seed Odds of R32 (78.5%) | Average Wins: 1.53
2022 - 3 Seed (S16) - 3 Seed Odds of E8 (25.7%) | Average Wins: 1.84
Painter Expected Wins (17.53) | Painter Actual Wins (17)
Purdue hasn't exactly been lucky with giving up buzzer-beating shots in losses to Cincinnati, Little Rock, and Virginia along with 3 other one-possession/OT losses. Then you have 2 other losses without star players who got injured in March.
My take is that the fanbase should calm down and maintain some more optimism. The tournament is as much luck as it is skill. Even Michael Jordan lost Game 1 four times on the way to a title. Jay Wright and Tony Bennett used to be known as tournament chokers. Teams won't hit buzzer beaters that go around the rim twice or step-back 35 footers every year. And I think that a breakthrough to the Final 4 will probably be from some team nobody had any expectations for.
And I'm sure that when Purdue does make a Final Four (which has to be the most overrated achievement in sports - it's just as much of an improvement from an E8 as an E8 is from a S16 according to math - the Colts get clowned for hanging a Final Four banner), my point will still stand because everyone will just start saying "Painter can't make the championship game."