Baylor and Butler lost....#chasefor3seed

[SnowLeopard]

We really need to win the next 2 games and hope for Duke, Florida, WVU, Florida State to lose before Sunday

Currently

#11 on BPI
#14 on Kenpom
#19 on RPI (bring on #20 Minnesota in the BIG semifinals)

 

[Frankie611]

We will have up to three chances to prove our worth. Hopefully we can get it done!

 

[depthcharge623]

I was really hoping Duke would lose yesterday. Louisville totally bailed them out by missing FTs down the stretch. I think that would have helped us some.

 

[Bluegrass Boiler]

WVU (B12 two seed) lucked into an easier path to the finals. Just 4, 6, 8 seeds left. Doubt we'll pass them. Best shot was watching Duke and FSU squeak out narrow wins yesterday. Could get a recently hot Vandy team to knock off Florida tonight...that would help a lot.

 

[FirstDownB]

Duke winning hurt our chances at a 3 seed. Considering they play a 1 seed next, they won't drop if they lose. They are locked in as a 3 seed IMO.

Baylor is still projected as a 2 seed or high 3 seed by many.

Florida, West Virginia, Florida St are the targets. We need Florida and Florida St. to lose today as they would likely play 1 seeds if they advance to their conference final, which would be a no-lose situation, kind of like where Duke is today playing UNC.
West Virginia is in a similar situation as us if we win today. In the semifinals with two good, but not great teams ahead.

I think our realistic ceiling is the #1 4 seed in Milwaukee unless every single domino falls the right way the next 3 days. Fortunately there isn't a whole lot of thunder behind us, so our floor is probably a high 5 seed even if we lose today. ND, Butler, Cincinnati might pass us up, but that's about it.

 

[SqueakyClean]

I'm not as worried about West Virginia unless we lose today and they win out. They have a lower RPI than us already and more losses. As mentioned, their path to the Big XII championship just became a bit easier, so while it is possible they will get some good wins, there is little chance for a signature top 10 team that would have vaulted them above us.

Butler losing yesterday dropped them to a 4 and Duke jumped up into their 3 spot.

The lowest ranked 4 will get the highest ranked 1 seed bracket. If I had to guess, right now the likely 4 seeds are Butler, Florida, Purdue, West Virginia (in that order). The 3 seeds are Duke, Florida State, Arizona, UCLA, and Florida State.

Duke plays UNC, so a loss will not kick them off the 3 line.

Arizona and UCLA play today against each other. If UCLA loses, it’s possible they can drop to a 4. They are only slightly higher RPI than us (15 to our 16) and their strength of schedule is much worse (130 vs. 59). They are also lower than us on Kenpom. So we definitely want UCLA to lose. Whoever wins the game today will not be knocked off the 3 line.

Florida State will play Notre Dame. We obviously want ND to win. This one is a little tricky. ND winning is a double benefit to us. The only concern would be them jumping us. If they win the whole thing, they might jump us, but I think just winning today would jump them up into a 4 slot and possibly knock Virginia down to a 5.

Florida plays Vandy today. I just don’t know if Florida losing to Vandy would knock them down lower than us. It wouldn’t be a “bad” loss at this point, but it might be just bad enough (especially how they would close the season losing 3 out of 4) for Purdue to jump them if Purdue wins out.

So, Purdue wins out against Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland, FSU loses to ND, Vandy beats Florida, and Arizona beats UCLA. If all of things happen, then we have a shot at the “last” 3 slot. While this is ideal, if we win out, regardless of what everyone else does, we might be able to pull off the “Strongest” 4 slot, which would be in the Western bracket, playing in Milwaukee, with Gonzaga as the 1 seed.

 

[SqueakyClean]

Also, as a note, not sure how it happened, but Nebraska got knocked out of the top 100 yesterday, so we are back to having a sub-100 loss again.

 

[PaBoiler78]

Also, as a note, not sure how it happened, but Nebraska got knocked out of the top 100 yesterday, so we are back to having a sub-100 loss again.

watched the Butler game last night, is Brunk redshirting? also can someone refresh my memory in regards to Blueit's recruiting. The announcers said he was close to picking UCLA but wanted to stay close to home because of his brother, why didn't he choose any of the Indiana schools? thanks

 

[FirstDownB]

I'm not as worried about West Virginia unless we lose today and they win out. They have a lower RPI than us already and more losses. As mentioned, their path to the Big XII championship just became a bit easier, so while it is possible they will get some good wins, there is little chance for a signature top 10 team that would have vaulted them above us.

Butler losing yesterday dropped them to a 4 and Duke jumped up into their 3 spot.

The lowest ranked 4 will get the highest ranked 1 seed bracket. If I had to guess, right now the likely 4 seeds are Butler, Florida, Purdue, West Virginia (in that order). The 3 seeds are Duke, Florida State, Arizona, UCLA, and Florida State.

Duke plays UNC, so a loss will not kick them off the 3 line.

Arizona and UCLA play today against each other. If UCLA loses, it’s possible they can drop to a 4. They are only slightly higher RPI than us (15 to our 16) and their strength of schedule is much worse (130 vs. 59). They are also lower than us on Kenpom. So we definitely want UCLA to lose. Whoever wins the game today will not be knocked off the 3 line.

Florida State will play Notre Dame. We obviously want ND to win. This one is a little tricky. ND winning is a double benefit to us. The only concern would be them jumping us. If they win the whole thing, they might jump us, but I think just winning today would jump them up into a 4 slot and possibly knock Virginia down to a 5.

Florida plays Vandy today. I just don’t know if Florida losing to Vandy would knock them down lower than us. It wouldn’t be a “bad” loss at this point, but it might be just bad enough (especially how they would close the season losing 3 out of 4) for Purdue to jump them if Purdue wins out.

So, Purdue wins out against Michigan, Minnesota, and Maryland, FSU loses to ND, Vandy beats Florida, and Arizona beats UCLA. If all of things happen, then we have a shot at the “last” 3 slot. While this is ideal, if we win out, regardless of what everyone else does, we might be able to pull off the “Strongest” 4 slot, which would be in the Western bracket, playing in Milwaukee, with Gonzaga as the 1 seed.

I think we are neck and neck with WV. Most 'experts' have projected them as a much higher seed than their RPI for several weeks now due to their quality wins. They are also highly favored by other metrics like KenPom. However, that win at UVa has lost some shine, and they only beat KU and Baylor at home. All I know is I hope they are a 4 and we don't have to worry about playing them until the final 4.