Purdue, UConn and Houston...

[Chi-Boiler]

...and then the rest of the country.

We've talked all year about polls, the NET, SOS, Quad 1 wins and the eye test. You can say that you don't care is Purdue is #1 overall or not, and that's ok. Some people like me do care. For one thing, it specifically means avoiding the other 2 until April 8th. I think that's important considering how much of a drop off there seems to be after these 3 teams.

Currently, UConn is avenging one of their losses by destroying Seton Hall at home. It doesn't sound louder than Sunday church at Gampel though. I figure they jump us to #2 tomorrow. For whatever that is worth.

Houston won a high-scoring game yesterday, at the (almost) buzzer at Oklahoma. I'm sure none of us watched it since it was at the same time as our game but they let a decent-sized lead slip away before getting a fortunate bounce before the game-winner. The fact that they could win an up-tempo game on the road against a respectable team is something new.

Remaining schedules all have challenges.
Purdue:
Tues at Illinois
Sunday vs Wisconsin

UConn:
Wednesday at Marquette
Saturday at Providence

Houston:
Wednesday at UCF
Saturday vs Kansas

These remaining games may be more important than the respective conference tournaments in determining the final order for the bracket. Purdue has the best resume currently, but I think a loss, if the other 2 both win, will put us #3 overall in 2 weeks. But all 3 could in theory lose a game based on how these schedules are, which would keep it as status quo.

I do think that Tennessee is in the best shape to be the 4th #1 after beating Alabama yesterday. They finish at South Carolina and home against Kentucky, so they too could lose a game.

The other current question now is who is the last 2-seed, after Tennessee, UNC, Marquette and Arizona take #s 4-7 overall. There really isn't a great choice between Iowa State, Baylor, Illinois and Duke if they were to beat Carolina next weekend. The break after 7 is arguably bigger than the break after 3.

 

[RDUBoiler]

Interesting that most of the teams that slot in at the fourth spot have already played (and lost to) Purdue. I'd definitely prefer a rematch with them before playing Houston or UConn. Hard to say who slides into the 8th spot. Seems high for any of those teams.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Because of geography, I am pretty confident that Purdue will be #1 in the Midwest and will not meet either Houston (#1 South) or UConn (# East) until the championship game. Tennessee is positioned very well for the #1 in the West, with Arizona in great shape if they slip up. My best guess would be that UNC goes East, Marquette Midwest, and Duke South at this point, with the caveat that there are several games left to be played. Wouldn’t shock me if Kentucky ends up in Purdue’s bracket at the #4.

 

[qazplm]

Because of geography, I am pretty confident that Purdue will be #1 in the Midwest and will not meet either Houston (#1 South) or UConn (# East) until the championship game. Tennessee is positioned very well for the #1 in the West, with Arizona in great shape if they slip up. My best guess would be that UNC goes East, Marquette Midwest, and Duke South at this point, with the caveat that there are several games left to be played. Wouldn’t shock me if Kentucky ends up in Purdue’s bracket at the #4.

Exactly. A lot of these top two seeds are going to be limited by geography as to where they end up

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Because of geography, I am pretty confident that Purdue will be #1 in the Midwest and will not meet either Houston (#1 South) or UConn (# East) until the championship game.

Geography won't have anything to do with that but I might be reading your post wrong. Yes, Purdue will be MW, UConn East, Houston South, but #1 overall will be in the top left of the bracket and the location will get slapped on after. #2 overall goes to the top right, and #3 overall bottom right. So #2 and #3 by rule line up to play in the National Semis. Which is what makes being #1 more important.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Because of geography, I am pretty confident that Purdue will be #1 in the Midwest and will not meet either Houston (#1 South) or UConn (# East) until the championship game. Tennessee is positioned very well for the #1 in the West, with Arizona in great shape if they slip up. My best guess would be that UNC goes East, Marquette Midwest, and Duke South at this point, with the caveat that there are several games left to be played. Wouldn’t shock me if Kentucky ends up in Purdue’s bracket at the #4.

The interesting thing about Arizona is they will be in the West no matter what, whether they're a 1 or a 2. If they're a 2, that screams of unfairness to, say, Tennessee, but it's how it works. You're probably right about the locations of the 2s at this point, and the way Marquette is playing right now I'll take it.

 

[DrEss]

We may need to finish with two wins next week and get to the BTT final game to get the #1 1 seed.

 

[Dryfly88]

Unless we have a complete collapse (like lose the next 3 games we play) we are the #1 seed in the Midwest. I really don't have any preference on who we play in a semi-final in the FF. I'm much more concerned/anxious about who is on our bracket keeping us from getting to the FF. Once we are in the FF I will take whoever is still standing from the other regions.

Here are teams I would prefer not to be in our region, in the order I'm most afraid of:

TN - They are lined up for a #1 but if they were to drop to a #2, I don't want them.
KY - They are a team that could easily score with us. Playing better at the right time
Baylor - Also playing better and have athletes that worry me
Auburn - When they are on, they are very good.

 

[qazplm]

Geography won't have anything to do with that but I might be reading your post wrong. Yes, Purdue will be MW, UConn East, Houston South, but #1 overall will be in the top left of the bracket and the location will get slapped on after. #2 overall goes to the top right, and #3 overall bottom right. So #2 and #3 by rule line up to play in the National Semis. Which is what makes being #1 more important.

Not sure there's a significant difference between whomever is 3 and 4.

Also unlikely that all four number 1 seeds all make the final four so but of a moot point. It's also unlikely that all 1 and 2 seeds make the elite eight

Location and a one seed are the two things that matter most in my opinion.

 

[Dryfly88]

We may need to finish with two wins next week and get to the BTT final game to get the #1 1 seed.

I don't know if you're just kidding around or not.....but this is wrong.

 

[RDUBoiler]

I don't know if you're just kidding around or not.....but this is wrong.

I think he means the top seed overall, not a number one seed in general. We've got that basically locked up.

 

[Dryfly88]

I think he means the top seed overall, not a number one seed in general. We've got that basically locked up.

Losing a reasonable game at Illinois (just not a blowout), won't preclude us from being #1 overall. I think we as fans tend to put too much weight on the last games of the year. The selection committee doesn't have that mandate. Whole resume is much more important. We lose at IL, beat Wisconsin and then make the final in BTT should get us the #1 overall. Obviously this is assuming that Houston and or Uconn don't run the table with their remaining schedule and maybe that was what the other poster was trying to say and I misunderstood.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Location and a one seed are the two things that matter most in my opinion.

Those are both locks.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Losing a reasonable game at Illinois (just not a blowout), won't preclude us from being #1 overall. I think we as fans tend to put too much weight on the last games of the year. The selection committee doesn't have that mandate. Whole resume is much more important. We lose at IL, beat Wisconsin and then make the final in BTT should get us the #1 overall. Obviously this is assuming that Houston and or Uconn don't run the table with their remaining schedule and maybe that was what the other poster was trying to say and I misunderstood.

It is all relative to what the other two teams do of course. I just don't think the respective conference tournaments are going to make much difference. The fact that the B1G final is on Sunday afternoon precludes some of that off the bat.

I will say this, my prediction I guess of the most likely to win their respective conference tournament is, in order, UConn, Purdue, Houston. Iowa State or Kansas IMO are more likely to win the Big 12, which could elevate the one or other into the final 2-seed.

 

[Wolegib]

I prefer to place more importance on our tourney seed and our matchups than any regular season ranking.

 

[purduedavie]

Because of geography, I am pretty confident that Purdue will be #1 in the Midwest and will not meet either Houston (#1 South) or UConn (# East) until the championship game. Tennessee is positioned very well for the #1 in the West, with Arizona in great shape if they slip up. My best guess would be that UNC goes East, Marquette Midwest, and Duke South at this point, with the caveat that there are several games left to be played. Wouldn’t shock me if Kentucky ends up in Purdue’s bracket at the #4.

I would hate to see that, Ky is one team unless it’s a Final 8 that I would hate to see in a Sweet 16 matchup.

 

[qazplm]

Those are both locks.

Sure. Thus the reality is what we are playing for right now IMO is getting the team to the best possible place to enter the tournament.

Ideally, a place where all three of our starting guards are in a good place.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I prefer to place more importance on our tourney seed and our matchups than any regular season ranking.

We're not really talking about regular season ranking, we're talking about where we will be in the bracket. And our seed will be ONE. It's pretty pointless to speculate about who might be the 8/9 or the 4/13/5/12 right now. Speculating on the 2 can be done a whole lot easier.

 

[Boilerfla]

Bottom line, many important games left, 1-8 could win it all regardless, KY could also……so just win Boilers the next one!

 

[purduedavie]

Bottom line, many important games left, 1-8 could win it all regardless, KY could also……so just win Boilers the next one!

Ky can definitely win it, they got like 5 first round picks on that team.

 

[Dryfly88]

It is all relative to what the other two teams do of course. I just don't think the respective conference tournaments are going to make much difference. The fact that the B1G final is on Sunday afternoon precludes some of that off the bat.

I will say this, my prediction I guess of the most likely to win their respective conference tournament is, in order, UConn, Purdue, Houston. Iowa State or Kansas IMO are more likely to win the Big 12, which could elevate the one or other into the final 2-seed.

I agree the BTT has very little impact, especially if we just win our first game on Friday. Saturday and for sure Sunday have little, if any, impact on a team with our resume.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I will say this, my prediction I guess of the most likely to win their respective conference tournament is, in order, UConn, Purdue, Houston. Iowa State or Kansas IMO are more likely to win the Big 12, which could elevate the one or other into the final 2-seed.

Odds to win respective conference tourneys:

Purdue +125
UConn -125
Houston -110

The UConn line is mathematically smaller simply because there are fewer teams in the conference.

 

[Roeder]

I would hate to see that, Ky is one team unless it’s a Final 8 that I would hate to see in a Sweet 16 matchup.

Kentucky has ability to beat any team in a shootout. However, I don't think Kentucky will make it past the sweet 16, maybe not even 1st weekend. Defense is way too bad, and as long as these Covid year 23 and 24 y/o men are up and down rosters this will be another NCAA tournament where experience trumps young talent.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

Kentucky has ability to beat any team in a shootout. However, I don't think Kentucky will make it past the sweet 16, maybe not even 1st weekend. Defense is way too bad, and as long as these Covid year 23 and 24 y/o men are up and down rosters this will be another NCAA tournament where experience trumps young talent.

If you look at the 4 factors, Kentucky does 2 things very well: shoot and minimize turnovers. Meanwhile, they are mediocre at offensive rebounding and getting to the line, as well as all 4 defensive factors. They also play at a very fast tempo which contributes to their high scoring. They are definitely a good team, but I am skeptical about their ability to make a deep NCAA run. If they have an off shooting game, I don’t see them doing enough other things well to make up for it.

 

[Roeder]

Kentucky has ability to beat any team in a shootout. However, I don't think Kentucky will make it past the sweet 16, maybe not even 1st weekend. Defense is way too bad, and as long as these Covid year 23 and 24 y/o men are up and down rosters this will be another NCAA tournament where experience trumps young talent.

I take it all back. My goodness they look good. If Purdue's reward for a number 1 overall seed is Kentucky as a 4 in the Midwest, send us out West.....

 

[Heads up BOILER]

I take it all back. My goodness they look good. If Purdue's reward for a number 1 overall seed is Kentucky as a 4 in the Midwest, send us out West.....

Might need to pull for KY to win the SEC tournament. I wonder if that gets them a 3 seed instead of a 4 that we might meet up with earlier. 😅

 

[PurdueDave]

Might need to pull for KY to win the SEC tournament. I wonder if that gets them a 3 seed instead of a 4 that we might meet up with earlier. 😅

Knowing our luck, they'll lose and drop all the way to an 8 in our bracket.

 

[Heads up BOILER]

Knowing our luck, they'll lose and drop all the way to an 8 in our bracket.

Then we’ll just have to BTFU 🖤💛🏀 and drop the Boilermaker hammer on them 😎!!!
Boiler Nation > big blue nation!

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I take it all back. My goodness they look good. If Purdue's reward for a number 1 overall seed is Kentucky as a 4 in the Midwest, send us out West.....

There's no way of knowing who will get in what region when it comes all the way to the 4 seeds. Too many variables, one of which being that an SEC team could be in the 8/9 game, so that might preclude Kentucky from being a 4 in the same region.

 

[BoilerNGold013]

Really hope Kentucky gets bumped up to the 3 line.

 

[ChoiceBeef]

Tennessee and Iowa State losing today. Wonder if anyone really wants that 4th 1 seed.

 

[Old Gold n Black]

Tennessee and Iowa State losing today. Wonder if anyone really wants that 4th 1 seed.

No kidding. That just gives us more cushion to lose a game and still remain on the 1-line. Not that I think we will lose another game or anything like that...

 

[TC4THREE]

Yeah Kentucky is dangerous offensively and look to still be improving. Would not want them to be in our bracket at all, but certainly not as a 4 seed. I'm not saying we'd lose for sure, but if their players are knocking down shots like today there isn't much we can do to stop it.

 

[Roeder]

Tennessee and Iowa State losing today. Wonder if anyone really wants that 4th 1 seed.

Did Carolina take it back?

For some reason I was pulling for Duke.

I don't know if it's because Harrison Ingram flirted with Purdue or because Cormac Ryan is 25 (he really is, I looked it up) and should be selling insurance, but I can't get behind the Carolina squad when they are on.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Did Carolina take it back?

For some reason I was pulling for Duke.

I don't know if it's because Harrison Ingram flirted with Purdue or because Cormac Ryan is 25 (he really is, I looked it up) and should be selling insurance, but I can't get behind the Carolina squad when they are on.

I'd say Carolina definitely took it back, especially with Arizona looking like crap against USC-West tonight.

 

[purduedavie]

I take it all back. My goodness they look good. If Purdue's reward for a number 1 overall seed is Kentucky as a 4 in the Midwest, send us out West.....

Thinking Ky is a high 4 now, if they rank them 1-16 and Purdue is the 1 no way Ky is 16th, hopefully, Ky wins a few in the SEC tourney and gets on the 3 line, if they’re with Purdue at least it’s a Final 8 game.

 

[purduedavie]

Did Carolina take it back?

For some reason I was pulling for Duke.

I don't know if it's because Harrison Ingram flirted with Purdue or because Cormac Ryan is 25 (he really is, I looked it up) and should be selling insurance, but I can't get behind the Carolina squad when they are on.

Put Iowa St or Kansas with Purdue as the 4.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Thinking Ky is a high 4 now, if they rank them 1-16 and Purdue is the 1 no way Ky is 16th, hopefully, Ky wins a few in the SEC tourney and gets on the 3 line, if they’re with Purdue at least it’s a Final 8 game.

#1 overall does not necessarily go with #16 overall. Same as it doesn't go with #8 overall.

 

[Do Dah Day]

And here we are - 2 of the top 3 all year ....