I agree mostly, but I would point out that we have a couple new additions that could completely flip a bunch of this on it's head. TKR was the go to because we had no center at all. You add Jacobsen and Cluff to the mix and we should see a lot more balance in our offense if they end up being who we think they will be. Jacobsen especially could make a case for a driver over a 3 pt specialist by spacing the floor, which would devalue the skillset Fletcher brings relative to more athletic guards. Doesn't mean he doesn't play a bunch just that with a 3 pt. shooting center, you have an element that hasn't existed since he started playing at Purdue.
The other factor that could impact Fletch is the potential for a swarming D and transition squad. Fletch is decent at transition, but not at the swarming D. If we play fast and try for a lockdown D it could minorly impact his minutes.
That said I think the likelihood is Fletch plays his 30 as he did last year or maybe loses a few minutes per game to the new blood. As others have pointed out he was nearly an all B1G last year, and is very likely to be the biggest 3 pt threat on the team, and we all know 3 pt. shots are the #1 in modern basketball.
Again, if Fletch plays 30+ minutes and Smith plays near 40 you only have 15 minutes total for the new guys unless you are going to take minutes away from Cox and Harris.
TKR probably loses a few minutes too because again there are way more quality players on this team next season then possibly Purdue has ever had.
When's the last time we had three guys who could all legit play center at a high level?
We have 9 guys at the 1-3. Painter didn't bring in Murphy to ride the pine. He didn't bring in Mayer to play 5-10 minutes.
Loyer played so many minutes bc Colvin didn't make the jump, and bc Heide spent time at the 4 which opened up minutes at the 1-3 so you could play Loyer 30+ bc you didn't have as much competition for minutes and you didn't have anyone who could shoot like him, and you really only had the personnel to play one way.
Now, as you've correctly pointed out, we have variability in play styles possible now. We could go two big, spacing out with shooters which in those scenarios that's a Fletch game.
Or we can go more fast paced with DJ anchoring down low and putting athletic guys around him, that's not a Fletch game.
We also have alternatives for when Fletch is off, and yes, that happens. We also have players that can get into a heater which might delay another players return.
If Painter wanted to do exactly what we did last season, he wouldn't have used the portal, he's just have run it back