Projected Wins by Vegas

[ImRonBurgandy?]

Maybe I missed something but I thought O'Connell played very well last year. He moved the team. IMO, Horvath is a top running back and Bell is the best receiver. A RB who consistently gets 4-6 yards 15-20 times a game is much better than one who gets a couple of yards15-18 times a game and breaks one for 20+ years twice a game. Our TE's and WR's are very good also. We may have the top WR's in the league because of Bell. We lost our best OL but hopefully, our other linemen have gained strength, experience, and adhesion. What no one mentioned was Brohm ran much fewer trick plays, which keeps the D guessing, and IMO our O loose and having fun.

Our D is a major concern having lost 2 key players. I am still flabbergasted over the Rutgers game and IMO other teams will try running the ball down our throat and all I can say is that it better not work.

If the D meets expectations, then our Achilles heel will be Special Teams. Can anyone explain our progress if any there?

I dont disagree with anything you mentioned. I'm cautiously optimistic our D will be much improved from last year (ok maybe that's not saying much). Mitchell and GK should provide a pass rush which we haven't seen in years. If, and that's kind of a big one, is we have a healthy Grant and Allen as our safties from game 1, I think our secondary could be quite good. LBs are a big question.

NOTE: please keep Mitchell away from the bicycles. He's way too big to be on those anyway.

 

[TheGunner]

Well written, and good info.

It's a good balance to the, "Brohm sucks", "hot seat", and the bizarre, random references to Darrell Hazell and Danny Hope.

The Colletto references are the ones I find hilarious (as the Hazell references are just ludicrous). in the B1G, Colletto 13-32...Brohm 14-19

 

[nat100]

The Colletto references are the ones I find hilarious (as the Hazell references are just ludicrous). in the B1G, Colletto 13-32...Brohm 14-19

You’re right. Collettos record improved the longer he coached at Purdue

 

[TheGunner]

You’re right. Collettos record improved the longer he coached at Purdue

94 5-4-2
95 4-6-1
96 3-8

I guess Colletto must have left in ‘94. (Nevermind, I guess I forgot Alstott coached the team in 95 and Trefzger in 96)

 

[nat100]

94 5-4-2
95 4-6-1
96 3-8

I guess Colletto must have left in ‘94. (Nevermind, I guess I forgot Alstott coached the team in 95 and Trefzger in 96)

What’s brohms record over the last 4

you also left out 3 years

 

[Purdue85]

What’s brohms record over the last 4

you also left out 3 years

Dude, your point was wrong. Just own it and move on.

Colletto was no Brohm.

For a multitude of factors, Brohm hasn't performed anywhere near where everyone thought he would... yet. Will he? Not sure.

This board just goes off the deep end from time to time.

 

[nat100]

Dude, your point was wrong. Just own it and move on.

Colletto was no Brohm.

For a multitude of factors, Brohm hasn't performed anywhere near where everyone thought he would... yet. Will he? Not sure.

This board just goes off the deep end from time to time.

Brohm has aggregated talent, much like colletto. He has underperformed with that talent, much like colletto

why is this hard?

 

[TheGunner]

What’s brohms record over the last 4

you also left out 3 years

I didn’t think I need to include the first 3 years since you qualified as “he improved the longer he stayed.” Funny thing is that Colletto only improved only one year....from 1-10 in 1993 to 5-4-2 in 1994. So much for improving the longer he stayed.

Colletto either stayed the same as his previous year or was worse in all of his other years.

But since you asked

91 4-7
92 4-7 (same)
93 1-10 (didn’t improve)
94 5-4-2 (did improve)
95 4-6-1 (didn’t improve)
96 3-8 (didn’t improve)

 

[nat100]

Colletto either stayed the same as his previous year or was worse in all of his other years.

Sounds familiar

 

[TheGunner]

Sounds familiar

Well, there’s really only one way to go when you finish 1-10 as Colletto did in 1993. Yep, Colletto did improve in 94....but I thought you said Colletto “improved the longer he stayed”....that really wasn’t true, was it?

 

[Wink96]

Well, there’s really only one way to go when you finish 1-10 as Colletto did in 1993. Yep, Colletto did improve in 94....but I thought you said Colletto “improved the longer he stayed”....that really wasn’t true, was it?

Colletto sure did make a career out of near misses during his tenure

 

[BoilerData]

FWIW, ESPN's FPI rankings were recently released. Purdue is currently 50th, which is one spot behind Minnesota. From this projection, Purdue is given a 58% chance to reach 6 wins next year.

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

Last I saw, Connelly's SP+ rating had projected Purdue to be ranked 40th for 2021. For context, Connelly projected Purdue to finish 48th with a 3-5 record in 2020.

 

[FirstDownB]

FWIW, ESPN's FPI rankings were recently released. Purdue is currently 50th, which is one spot behind Minnesota. From this projection, Purdue is given a 58% chance to reach 6 wins next year.

2024 College Football Power Index - ESPN

View the 2024 College Football power index on ESPN. The FPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.

www.espn.com

Last I saw, Connelly's SP+ rating had projected Purdue to be ranked 40th for 2021. For context, Connelly projected Purdue to finish 48th with a 3-5 record in 2020.

If I recall correctly, that FPI projection is a fair step up from last year’s.

 

[BoilerData]

If I recall correctly, that FPI projection is a fair step up from last year’s.

It looks like Purdue was 47th in FPI and 48th in SP+ before the 2020 season, but most of the Big West teams seem to be down more in this year's projected rankings compared to last year.

Connelly made a good prediction (see below) prior to the 2020 season, since each of Purdue's games had been very close scores last season.

"The Boilermakers' schedule is full of potential tossups -- SP+ projects six of their eight games within one touchdown -- so this short season could go a lot of different directions."
-Connelly

Can Wisconsin continue its dominance? Previewing the Big Ten West's season

Wisconsin has advanced to the Big Ten title game six of the past nine years, and although the Badgers are the favorites to make it this season, might there be a dark-horse candidate looking to end their run?

www.espn.com

 

[liquarius]

Bump

 

[BCfanatic2020]

I picked 5-7.. I was a moron. One of the best things a man can do, like the poster Rocky top, is learn how to say “I was wrong”

and I was.

one poster on a Tennessee forum last night mocked the other fans for expecting Vanderbilt and getting a damn good Purdue team. Say what you want about Tennessee fans but I saw more credit for us in one of their threads than we got from fans of Oregon state, UConn (yes! Go read their forum lol), Nebraska, northwestern and Indiana combined

 

[mediaexpert]

Maybe I missed something but I thought O'Connell played very well last year. He moved the team. IMO, Horvath is a top running back and Bell is the best receiver. A RB who consistently gets 4-6 yards 15-20 times a game is much better than one who gets a couple of yards15-18 times a game and breaks one for 20+ years twice a game. Our TE's and WR's are very good also. We may have the top WR's in the league because of Bell. We lost our best OL but hopefully, our other linemen have gained strength, experience, and adhesion. What no one mentioned was Brohm ran much fewer trick plays, which keeps the D guessing, and IMO our O loose and having fun.

Our D is a major concern having lost 2 key players. I am still flabbergasted over the Rutgers game and IMO other teams will try running the ball down our throat and all I can say is that it better not work.

If the D meets expectations, then our Achilles heel will be Special Teams. Can anyone explain our progress if any there?

Thank you Liquarius for reviving this blog written last April. I think Aidan, Horvath, and Bell did Purdue proud. Also note that I predicted an 8-4 season and we lost 2 games to Minny and Notre Dame when Horvath was out. Horvath had much better numbers last year, but see the team stats when he played. He brought intangibles. If he was healthy all year, we may have gone 10-2.

 

[FirstDownB]

I picked 5-7.. I was a moron. One of the best things a man can do, like the poster Rocky top, is learn how to say “I was wrong”

and I was.

one poster on a Tennessee forum last night mocked the other fans for expecting Vanderbilt and getting a damn good Purdue team. Say what you want about Tennessee fans but I saw more credit for us in one of their threads than we got from fans of Oregon state, UConn (yes! Go read their forum lol), Nebraska, northwestern and Indiana combined

You had tempered expectations based on a lot of real questions. Nothing ‘wrong’ about that.

 

[ChuckJr]

I think we beat MN if the 1st touchdown was disallowed as it was not caught.

 

[BCfanatic2020]

You had tempered expectations based on a lot of real questions. Nothing ‘wrong’ about that.

Well I agree … BUT when the coaches and players step up and answer almost all of them that deserves respect

 

[BoilerData]

Well I agree … BUT when the coaches and players step up and answer almost all of them that deserves respect

Part of the issue was Purdue wasn't as bad in 2020 as they looked. Issues with defensive coaching, chemistry, depth, and Covid sapped the players energy in 2020... preventing them from reaching their full potential. This year the culture is good, so the team was able to gel and play above expectations.

Also, many of the games on Purdue's schedule were tossups, so 4-8 seemed just as likely as 8-4. Give credit to the players and coaches for a great season.

 

[BCfanatic2020]

Part of the issue was Purdue wasn't as bad in 2020 as they looked. Issues with defensive coaching, chemistry, depth, and Covid sapped the players energy in 2020... preventing them from reaching their full potential. This year the culture is good, so the team was able to gel and play above expectations.

Also, many of the games on Purdue's schedule were tossups, so 4-8 seemed just as likely as 8-4. Give credit to the players and coaches for a great season.

Well said

 

[Purdue85]

Part of the issue was Purdue wasn't as bad in 2020 as they looked. Issues with defensive coaching, chemistry, depth, and Covid sapped the players energy in 2020... preventing them from reaching their full potential. This year the culture is good, so the team was able to gel and play above expectations.

Also, many of the games on Purdue's schedule were tossups, so 4-8 seemed just as likely as 8-4. Give credit to the players and coaches for a great season.

Ditto, 2019.

There's a certain level of vindication for people here who went through the ANALYSIS (often derided as "excuses"), and recognized those two seasons for what they were, and also recognized the significant gains that were being made, and made the (now confirmed) case that Purdue/Brohm was, in fact, making tremendous progress.

...

Unfortunately, for some the extreme dislike (avoiding that "H" word) for Brohm is still very real, and will likely never go away regardless his achievements here before he leaves.

 

[BCfanatic2020]

Ditto, 2019.

There's a certain level of vindication for people here who went through the ANALYSIS (often derided as "excuses"), and recognized those two seasons for what they were, and also recognized the significant gains that were being made, and made the (now confirmed) case that Purdue/Brohm was, in fact, making tremendous progress.

...

Unfortunately, for some the extreme dislike (avoiding that "H" word) for Brohm is still very real, and will likely never go away regardless his achievements here before he leaves.

Who is still mad at brohm? I know I’m not lol

 

[purduedavie]

I figured 5 or 6 wins, great season by the Boilers, fun season!

 

[Purdue85]

Who is still mad at brohm? I know I’m not lol

"... mad at Brohm?"

Never has been an issue of being "mad at Brohm". Probably more accurately "mad at (Bobinsky)", and Brohm is the target ...!

 

[DAG10]

Ditto, 2019.

There's a certain level of vindication for people here who went through the ANALYSIS (often derided as "excuses"), and recognized those two seasons for what they were, and also recognized the significant gains that were being made, and made the (now confirmed) case that Purdue/Brohm was, in fact, making tremendous progress.

...

Unfortunately, for some the extreme dislike (avoiding that "H" word) for Brohm is still very real, and will likely never go away regardless his achievements here before he leaves.

There may be no better examples than Purdue and Indinia for what last year was with Covid, and, admittedly, while I did feel that was impactful, I did not give it due credit in any school's case...and, not having Rondale for an extended stretch and then Karlaftis as well. That all said, nothing...not even Covid...compared to the impact that Diaco had.

Brohm ended up doing an incredibly impressive job this year when all was said and done...I am hopeful that he can build on it and turn it into some sustained success in recruiting and on the field...at least there is no QB contest or controversy going into next year, and, there should be some staff stability finally as well.

 

[BCfanatic2020]

"... mad at Brohm?"

Never has been an issue of being "mad at Brohm". Probably more accurately "mad at (Bobinsky)", and Brohm is the target ...!

Why though?

 

[Purdue85]

Why though?

you're asking the wroooooooooooooong person.