KenPom Data Thoughts

[Boiler Addict]

Speaking from KenPom data from 2002-2022. Here's some info for you guys.

1) Purdue's current KenPom in 2022 (although a very small sample size) is 26.57. KenPom ranking #4.
2) The highest scores that Purdue has achieved in the time period were in 2018 (26.27) and 2019 (26.81).
3) Those two years went 30-7 and 26-10, and are in the top 5 winningest seasons for Purdue during that time.
4) Those years also achieved KenPom ranking #5 (2018) and KenPom ranking #9 (2019), which are Purdue's two highest KenPom ratings in that stretch.
5) In those years, Purdue had its highest NCAA seeds at #2 (2018) and #3 (2019).

What's all this mean? Nothing, but if history repeats, assuming Purdue's KenPom score holds, the following assumptions can be made.

1) Purdue is not the best in the nation and needs to get better to be elite. Taking an average of the #1 and #2 KenPom scores for 2002-2021, it is 32.64 and 30.36.
2) The current 2022 Purdue KenPom score (26.57) would have finished #8, #5, #10, #3, #8 over the last 5 years. Which averages to #7.
3) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's current KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Each college season is different, but it seems like a KenPom score of ~29.5+ is elite. So far this early into 2022; Gonzaga is at 31.27 and Kansas is second at 27.12, and Michigan is third at 26.84. Go BOILERS!!!

 

[GregJM24]

I like and use Team Rankings a lot. According to it, Gonzaga is the clear No. 1 and Purdue is the clear No. 2.

(Gonzaga has an 11.6% chance to win it all, Purdue 9.6%, Kansas is third at 6%.)

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College basketball picks and predictions, plus NCAA basketball odds, stats, power rankings, strength of schedule, SOS, standings and projections.

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[FirstDownB]

KenPom has stated that his metrics are basically unreliable until around January. Until then they are heavily weighted by preseason ratings and individual prior year stats. Every metric has issues until a sufficient sample size is established for the current season.

 

[Mandeville LA]

I care about the NCAA seed and how the Boilers finish the season.

 

[Boilers424]

Speaking from KenPom data from 2002-2022. Here's some info for you guys.

1) Purdue's current KenPom in 2022 (although a very small sample size) is 26.57. KenPom ranking #4.
2) The highest scores that Purdue has achieved in the time period were in 2018 (26.27) and 2019 (26.81).
3) Those two years went 30-7 and 26-10, and are in the top 5 winningest seasons for Purdue during that time.
4) Those years also achieved KenPom ranking #5 (2018) and KenPom ranking #9 (2019), which are Purdue's two highest KenPom ratings in that stretch.
5) In those years, Purdue had its highest NCAA seeds at #2 (2018) and #3 (2019).

What's all this mean? Nothing, but if history repeats, assuming Purdue's KenPom score holds, the following assumptions can be made.

1) Purdue is not the best in the nation and needs to get better to be elite. Taking an average of the #1 and #2 KenPom scores for 2002-2021, it is 32.64 and 30.36.
2) The current 2022 Purdue KenPom score (26.57) would have finished #8, #5, #10, #3, #8 over the last 5 years. Which averages to #7.
3) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's current KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Each college season is different, but it seems like a KenPom score of ~29.5+ is elite. So far this early into 2022; Gonzaga is at 31.27 and Kansas is second at 27.12, and Michigan is third at 26.84. Go BOILERS!!!

Cool data - thanks for sharing! Just curious, if you still have the data available, what was the average ranking for the NCAA Champion during that time? What was the highest ranked champion and what was the lowest ranked champion?

 

[proudopete]

Just
Win
Baby

 

[Boiler Addict]

Cool data - thanks for sharing! Just curious, if you still have the data available, what was the average ranking for the NCAA Champion during that time? What was the highest ranked champion and what was the lowest ranked champion?

Good question, the answer is the average score for 18 champions is 30.91.
- Range is 23.93-35.21.
- 16 NC's with a score >=28.22 (w/ an average of 31.82)
- 2 NC's outliers of 23.28 (2003) and 23.93 (2011)
- The 19th champion, 2014 Connecticut, were not in my data set (outside of KenPom Top10).

I also expanded upon your question. Since 2002, of the 19 tournaments analyzed and 38 possible teams, there's 4 outliers out of KenPom Top10 that was in the national championship game.

2010 - Butler (runner-up)
2011 - Butler (runner-up)
2014 - both Connecticut (NC) and Kentucky (runner-up).
2020 - no tournament

Again, 34/38, or 89% of teams in KenPom Top10 for the season were in the national championship game.
KenPom #1-#3 rankings were in the NC game (24/38 times) 63%.
KenPom #4-#10 rankings were in the NC game (10/38 times) 26%
KenPom higher than #10 were in the NC game (4/38) = ~11%.

KenPom Rank	Low KenPom	High KenPom	Average	Note
#1 NC (10x)	28.28	35.21	32.62	Only one team below 31.14. 2006 Florida.
#1 Runner-Up (2x)	32.05	36.48	34.27	Both Gonzaga in 2017 and 2021.
#2 NC (3x)	28.30	33.87	30.99	28.30, 30.81, 33.87
#2 Runner-Up (5x)	28.62	33.72	31.27	3 w/ 31.51+, 29.82 and 28.62.
#3 NC (3x)	28.22	32.48	29.98	The other score was 29.25.
#3 Runner-Up (1x)	29.33			2007 Ohio St
#4 Runner-Up (2x)	26.91	27.86	27.39	2012 Kansas, 2013 Michigan
#5 Runner-Up (1x)	30.03			2019 Texas Tech
#6 Runner-Up (1x)	24.80			2002 Indiana
#7 Runner-Up (2x)	23.40	24.20	23.80	2006 UCLA, 2018 Michigan
#8 NC (1x)	23.28			2003 Syracuse
#8 Runner-Up (1x)	24.69			2004 Georgia Tech
#9 Runner-Up (1x)	24.37			2009 Michigan St
#10 NC (1x)	23.93			2011 Connecticut

 

[IUhaterade]

I like KenPom and Sagarin a lot and pull them up on my phone often- but I will admit it is pointless to look too much into this early in the season. Need to at least get to December before they start meaning very much

 

[Do Dah Day]

Good question, the answer is the average score for 18 champions is 30.91.
- Range is 23.93-35.21.
- 16 NC's with a score >=28.22 (w/ an average of 31.82)
- 2 NC's outliers of 23.28 (2003) and 23.93 (2011)
- The 19th champion, 2014 Connecticut, were not in my data set (outside of KenPom Top10).

I also expanded upon your question. Since 2002, of the 19 tournaments analyzed and 38 possible teams, there's 4 outliers out of KenPom Top10 that was in the national championship game.

2010 - Butler (runner-up)
2011 - Butler (runner-up)
2014 - both Connecticut (NC) and Kentucky (runner-up).
2020 - no tournament

Again, 34/38, or 89% of teams in KenPom Top10 for the season were in the national championship game.
KenPom #1-#3 rankings were in the NC game (24/38 times) 63%.
KenPom #4-#10 rankings were in the NC game (10/38 times) 26%
KenPom higher than #10 were in the NC game (4/38) = ~11%.

KenPom Rank	Low KenPom	High KenPom	Average	Note
#1 NC (10x)	28.28	35.21	32.62	Only one team below 31.14. 2006 Florida.
#1 Runner-Up (2x)	32.05	36.48	34.27	Both Gonzaga in 2017 and 2021.
#2 NC (3x)	28.30	33.87	30.99	28.30, 30.81, 33.87
#2 Runner-Up (5x)	28.62	33.72	31.27	3 w/ 31.51+, 29.82 and 28.62.
#3 NC (3x)	28.22	32.48	29.98	The other score was 29.25.
#3 Runner-Up (1x)	29.33			2007 Ohio St
#4 Runner-Up (2x)	26.91	27.86	27.39	2012 Kansas, 2013 Michigan
#5 Runner-Up (1x)	30.03			2019 Texas Tech
#6 Runner-Up (1x)	24.80			2002 Indiana
#7 Runner-Up (2x)	23.40	24.20	23.80	2006 UCLA, 2018 Michigan
#8 NC (1x)	23.28			2003 Syracuse
#8 Runner-Up (1x)	24.69			2004 Georgia Tech
#9 Runner-Up (1x)	24.37			2009 Michigan St
#10 NC (1x)	23.93			2011 Connecticut

And I thought this would be a single shot night .... oh well ...

 

[FirstDownB]

I like KenPom and Sagarin a lot and pull them up on my phone often- but I will admit it is pointless to look too much into this early in the season. Need to at least get to December before they start meaning very much

Yeah. Not to crap all over his work, but you'd have to compare the ratings of these other teams 3 games into their national championship seasons (not their final rating after 30+ games) to get a fair comparison. My guess is those teams' metrics were all over the map at this point in the season, especially those without a lot of returning production from the prior year.

 

[Boiler Addict]

I like KenPom and Sagarin a lot and pull them up on my phone often- but I will admit it is pointless to look too much into this early in the season. Need to at least get to December before they start meaning very much

Yeah. Not to crap all over his work, but you'd have to compare the ratings of these other teams 3 games into their national championship seasons (not their final rating after 30+ games) to get a fair comparison. My guess is those teams' metrics were all over the map at this point in the season, especially those without a lot of returning production from the prior year.

I agree, three games of data is meaningless. I even say it in my original post. I'm suggesting to consider the 2002-2021 data for reference for whenever you deem the 2021-2022 KenPom data viable.

Feel free to move to a different thread mentioning polls, click-bait or paper filling articles, talking about Indiana basketball, or other miscellaneous stuff. Here's some threads you might be interested in.

IU fans classless again​

OK, someone needs to put the crack pipe down.​

O$U and IU had trouble tonight​

Penn State gets throttled by UMASS. 81-56​

Is it just me that thinks​

How Many Days Has It Been Since iu Defeated Purdue in BB?​

Love this headline at Hoosier.com​

I'm actually trying to provide a leading data indicator for the future when its relevant, and balance. There's a lot to like about the team this year, but it seems people are overlooking the struggles the on the ball, containing the dribble defense had last year.

Quick rant: I think I philosophically understand why Painter doubles the post and leaving an open low percentage 3 point shooter, but having a 7'4" athletic center on the court I would have thought changes that. Sure you want everyone to master a system, but I hate to see guys in rotations and too many open 3's for my liking. Makes me wonder the data behind how efficient some teams are defensively when they switch styles multiple times mid-game.

 

[Gemini95]

Now #1 offense per Kenpom and closing the gap on the Zags overall. They came down a point after their lackluster win over Tarleton to 31.27. We went up about 1.5 pts tonight to 28.93 overall.

 

[Boiler Addict]

End of November update.

KenPom 29.06 (2nd)
Offense 121.6 (1st)
Defense 92.5 (36th)

The offense is carrying the load. I still am concerned about several things defensively as previously mentioned. If the defense has modest improvements, Purdue could achieve a score in the 30s. If Purdue gets to the 31.5 range, which is elite and ideal territory, the historical data suggests really good things.

Most impressed with the Villanova win so far. The defensive strategy changed in the second half and slowed them down. Plus they missed some shots they hit in the first half. TW perimeter defense was better than I recall in previous seasons as well.

Turnovers are higher than expected, but clearly not destroying the offense. I’m not the biggest fan of our inbound plays either but if those are the offensive concerns, things are going pretty good. The stretch 4 and a shooting PG has seemed to really unlock the offense. Go Boilers.

As a side note, if you look at the 2022 class, 3 more shooters. From memory, they all shot 40%+ from 3. So this style is going to be around for awhile. Berg (recruit) is visiting this week as well. Potentially big news coming next week between a #1 rank and Berg.

In the future, I’ll do some offensive and defensive calculations like I did for the overall KenPom score. I’m curious how bad defensively teams can be and how far they can go.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

I want the number 1 offense. Score 90 a game. No turd games where we score 59 and give some scrub school a chance they shouldn't have. Just relentlessly pour it on. The Butler game will be interesting to see if they can grind us down pace wise.

 

[Hausta01]

End of November update.

KenPom 29.06 (2nd)
Offense 121.6 (1st)
Defense 92.5 (36th)

The offense is carrying the load. I still am concerned about several things defensively as previously mentioned. If the defense has modest improvements, Purdue could achieve a score in the 30s. If Purdue gets to the 31.5 range, which is elite and ideal territory, the historical data suggests really good things.

Most impressed with the Villanova win so far. The defensive strategy changed in the second half and slowed them down. Plus they missed some shots they hit in the first half. TW perimeter defense was better than I recall in previous seasons as well.

Turnovers are higher than expected, but clearly not destroying the offense. I’m not the biggest fan of our inbound plays either but if those are the offensive concerns, things are going pretty good. The stretch 4 and a shooting PG has seemed to really unlock the offense. Go Boilers.

As a side note, if you look at the 2022 class, 3 more shooters. From memory, they all shot 40%+ from 3. So this style is going to be around for awhile. Berg (recruit) is visiting this week as well. Potentially big news coming next week between a #1 rank and Berg.

In the future, I’ll do some offensive and defensive calculations like I did for the overall KenPom score. I’m curious how bad defensively teams can be and how far they can go.

I heard this a couple years back, but to be a true title contender Purdue needs to be a top 20 or so defense per KP

 

[depthcharge623]

I want the number 1 offense. Score 90 a game. No turd games where we score 59 and give some scrub school a chance they shouldn't have. Just relentlessly pour it on. The Butler game will be interesting to see if they can grind us down pace wise.

Our offensive output is going to drop in B1G play almost guaranteed. It always does because of the difference in play style. The question will be how much...

 

[Woodsa]

I like and use Team Rankings a lot. According to it, Gonzaga is the clear No. 1 and Purdue is the clear No. 2.(Gonzaga has an 11.6% chance to win it all, Purdue 9.6%, Kansas is third at 6%.)

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www.teamrankings.com

And yet Zags have one loss and the Boilers have none. My point is stats are based on past behavior for predictive behaviors but, the game must be played.

 

[Hausta01]

And yet Zags have one loss and the Boilers have none. My point is stats are based on past behavior for predictive behaviors but, the game must be played.

And too many of the analytics have preseason expectations built in. Bart torvik allows you to remove those and Purdue is better than Gonzaga, according to his metrics, based on this season only. Arizona is actually his #1 team excluding preseason junk.

 

[IUhaterade]

And too many of the analytics have preseason expectations built in. Bart torvik allows you to remove those and Purdue is better than Gonzaga, according to his metrics, based on this season only. Arizona is actually his #1 team excluding preseason junk.

Yep- any rating that has Gonzaga higher than Purdue is a rating that had Gonzaga higher than Purdue to start the season.

 

[proudopete]

I heard this a couple years back, but to be a true title contender Purdue needs to be a top 20 or so defense per KP

Top 20 in both means good things but I’m not sure last years final four teams met that criteria.

 

[Hausta01]

Top 20 in both means good things but I’m not sure last years final four teams met that criteria.

That's not FF criteria, that is national champ criteria and Baylor for sure met that

 

[boilernuke]

That's not FF criteria, that is national champ criteria and Baylor for sure met that

Also, still need to play more games to get more data accuracy.

 

[valtore101]

KenPom has stated that his metrics are basically unreliable until around January. Until then they are heavily weighted by preseason ratings and individual prior year stats. Every metric has issues until a sufficient sample size is established for the current season.

Correct, doing this same analysis in another 4 weeks would be a better gauge.

 

[Boiler Addict]

I'll answer my own question. Here's the national champion data. The summary?

Offensive rank in the top 4 (13/18) or 72% of the time. Top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
Defensive rank in the top 10 (10/18) or 56%. Top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The magic formula seems to be a Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense.
Avg Offense 121. Average Defense 90. Delta ~31.

	Off.	Off.	Def.	Def.
Year	Rank	Rating	Rank	Rating
2002	4​	119.2​	7​	89.9​
2003	17​	114.4​	14​	91.1​
2004	9​	117.8​	6​	89.5​
2005	2​	122.5​	5​	89.7​
2006	3​	117.9​	7​	89.7​
2007	1​	122.8​	13​	92​
2008	2​	120.9​	1​	85.7​
2009	1​	123.2​	18​	92.1​
2010	1​	121​	5​	87.7​
2011	19​	115.8​	15​	91.9​
2012	2​	122.2​	7​	89.6​
2013	7​	117.7​	1​	84.8​
2015	3​	124.5​	11​	92​
2016	3​	122.8​	5​	90.8​
2017	9​	120.7​	11​	92.5​
2018	1​	127.8​	11​	94​
2019	2​	123.4​	5​	89.2​
2021	2​	125​	22​	91.1​
NC	4.9​	121.1​	9.1​	90.2​

 

[Boiler Addict]

Also, still need to play more games to get more data accuracy.

Agreed. The data is for historical reference.

Correct, doing this same analysis in another 4 weeks would be a better gauge.

Doing the historical analysis now vs. later does not matter. That previous years data will not change. It's a reference guide.

 

[valtore101]

Agreed. The data is for historical reference.



Doing the historical analysis now vs. later does not matter. That previous years data will not change. It's a reference guide.

Right, but my point is that this years data will. We could be better or worse that what the numbers say we are right now.

 

[FirstDownB]

I'll answer my own question. Here's the national champion data. The summary?

Offensive rank in the top 4 (13/18) or 72% of the time. Top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
Defensive rank in the top 10 (10/18) or 56%. Top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The magic formula seems to be a Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense.
Avg Offense 121. Average Defense 90. Delta ~31.

	Off.	Off.	Def.	Def.
Year	Rank	Rating	Rank	Rating
2002	4​	119.2​	7​	89.9​
2003	17​	114.4​	14​	91.1​
2004	9​	117.8​	6​	89.5​
2005	2​	122.5​	5​	89.7​
2006	3​	117.9​	7​	89.7​
2007	1​	122.8​	13​	92​
2008	2​	120.9​	1​	85.7​
2009	1​	123.2​	18​	92.1​
2010	1​	121​	5​	87.7​
2011	19​	115.8​	15​	91.9​
2012	2​	122.2​	7​	89.6​
2013	7​	117.7​	1​	84.8​
2015	3​	124.5​	11​	92​
2016	3​	122.8​	5​	90.8​
2017	9​	120.7​	11​	92.5​
2018	1​	127.8​	11​	94​
2019	2​	123.4​	5​	89.2​
2021	2​	125​	22​	91.1​
NC	4.9​	121.1​	9.1​	​ 90.2​

So we've got some work to do on defense.

Also- Good golly, that 2008 Kansas team. I don't remember them being that dominant.

 

[Boiler Addict]

To echo a previous statement:
The magic formula for national champions seems to be a Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense.
Avg Offense 121. Average Defense 90. Delta ~31.

Purdue for the season:

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Off Rank	Defense	Def Rank
12/02/21	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/21	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th

The offense remained steady, but the defense continues to struggle.

 

[Boiler Addict]

January update and important previous notes:

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).
2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th

Purdue's defense has slipped in the rankings for 2 months now. KenPom's Top 20 defense is currently 91.8. Purdue's 90th is an eye sore for the KenPom top 10 or even top 20. I do think the defensive rating will improve to finish this season.

Purdue is currently 1/3 teams in the KenPom top 20 that have a defense ranked below 30th.
- Kansas overall is KenPom #10. Offense 120.3 (ranked #3). Defense is 96.0 (ranked 52nd).
- Alabama overall is KenPom #18. Offense 117.6 (ranked #8). Defense is 97.2 (ranked 71st)

 

[DAG10]

January update and important previous notes:

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).
2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th

Purdue's defense has slipped in the rankings for 2 months now. KenPom's Top 20 defense is currently 91.8. Purdue's 90th is an eye sore for the KenPom top 10 or even top 20. I do think the defensive rating will improve to finish this season.

Purdue is currently 1/3 teams in the KenPom top 20 that have a defense ranked below 30th.
- Kansas overall is KenPom #10. Offense 120.3 (ranked #3). Defense is 96.0 (ranked 52nd).
- Alabama overall is KenPom #18. Offense 117.6 (ranked #8). Defense is 97.2 (ranked 71st)

Still not sure what to make of everything.

I don't know how valid Purdue's offensive numbers are, as, I would have thought the numbers there would decline during conference play, but, they have not apparently (which truly does surprise me).

I thought Purdue's defense would have at least improved over the month.

Thus...I admittedly know pretty much nothing with respect to KenPom, as, what I think to be the case or would make sense does not.

I do think that Purdue has gotten better defensively...in some cases individually, and, also collectively...there was a long stretch of the Iowa game where the defense was pretty good, and, had Iowa not lived at the line in the second half (and I don't know if that even factors in at all), that might have been more noticeable...there was a long stretch of the OSU game where it was pretty good as well (then, a stretch the last 6 minutes where it was pretty much awful). This team is definitely not good defensively, but, it has shown some signs of improvement...hopefully that will continue.

I would wonder what was the lowest KenPom defensive rating to make a FF/play for a National Championship, and, what was the greatest gap between offense and defense for a team to make a FF/play for a National Championship.

Thanks for the information regardless...interesting for sure.

 

[indyogb]

It will be ironic when the first Purdue team to win a National Championship in the tournament era does it with a potent offense and a lackluster defense.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

It will be ironic when the first Purdue team to win a National Championship in the tournament era does it with a potent offense and a lackluster defense.

Offense lives here! 333333333333

 

[Boiler Addict]

Still not sure what to make of everything...

Thus...I admittedly know pretty much nothing with respect to KenPom, as, what I think to be the case or would make sense does not.

I would wonder what was the lowest KenPom defensive rating to make a FF/play for a National Championship, and, what was the greatest gap between offense and defense for a team to make a FF/play for a National Championship.

Thanks for the information regardless...interesting for sure.

Appreciate your candidness. I started this thread because there was so many over zealous fans that were posting/predicting some unbelievable things when Purdue was undefeated in November and still do to this day. I wanted to bring a bit of reality into the equation through data rather than pure opinion.

To answer your question on "what was the lowest KenPom defensive rating to play for a National Championship? In post #24, I provided the national champion data for the last 20 years:

	National Champion	Runner Up
"worst" offensive rank	#19 (if you remove outliers #9)	#35 (if you remove outliers #28)
"worst" defensive rank	#22 (if you remove outliers #15)	#37 (if you remove outliers #11)

As a reminder, Purdue is #90 defensively per my last post. You probably understand the point made there.

Said a different way, using the NC data for 18 winners, the NC characteristics are:
- Offensive rank in the top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
- Defensive rank in the top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The reason for Purdue's offensive rankings are related to efficiency.
- Purdue offensively is averaging 1.201 points/possession. That is elite.
- If you notice, most shots are in the paint or from 3, very few mid range.
- In the paint is primarily Edey (71%) and Williams (56%) and misc layups from others. Ivey is the exception.
- 3 point shooting has been great. All volume shooters shooting >40% (except Newman).
- Gillis 51%, JI 44%, SS 42%, IT 42%, Newman 33%, Hunter 39%, Furst 41%, Morton 44%.

Purdue defensively is giving up .969 points/possession this season. That is bad. Here's some Purdue historical perspective.
- In the last 16 years, it ranks as the 5th "worst" defensive efficiency Purdue has had.
- The other 4 times? Missed tournament, Round 32 loss, Round 64 loss and Elite 8 loss.

Does my explanation / additional data help convey the message?

 

[DAG10]

Appreciate your candidness. I started this thread because there was so many over zealous fans that were posting/predicting some unbelievable things when Purdue was undefeated in November and still do to this day. I wanted to bring a bit of reality into the equation through data rather than pure opinion.

To answer your question on "what was the lowest KenPom defensive rating to play for a National Championship? In post #24, I provided the national champion data for the last 20 years:

	National Champion	Runner Up
"worst" offensive rank	#19 (if you remove outliers #9)	#35 (if you remove outliers #28)
"worst" defensive rank	#22 (if you remove outliers #15)	#37 (if you remove outliers #11)

As a reminder, Purdue is #90 defensively per my last post. You probably understand the point made there.

Said a different way, using the NC data for 18 winners, the NC characteristics are:
- Offensive rank in the top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
- Defensive rank in the top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The reason for Purdue's offensive rankings are related to efficiency.
- Purdue offensively is averaging 1.201 points/possession. That is elite.
- If you notice, most shots are in the paint or from 3, very few mid range.
- In the paint is primarily Edey (71%) and Williams (56%) and misc layups from others. Ivey is the exception.
- 3 point shooting has been great. All volume shooters shooting >40% (except Newman).
- Gillis 51%, JI 44%, SS 42%, IT 42%, Newman 33%, Hunter 39%, Furst 41%, Morton 44%.

Purdue defensively is giving up .969 points/possession this season. That is bad. Here's some Purdue historical perspective.
- In the last 16 years, it ranks as the 5th "worst" defensive efficiency Purdue has had.
- The other 4 times? Missed tournament, Round 32 loss, Round 64 loss and Elite 8 loss.

Does my explanation / additional data help convey the message?

VERY much so, and, equally appreciated as such.

I will candidly admit as well to not knowing exactly how some of such numbers referenced are determined, but, I definitely get the big picture things, and, despite my ignorance, I just appreciate the information provided...as well as the context here.

What you shared confirms some of my thoughts.

With respect to the defense...you have done a good job of making the point that you have tried to...and, there is definitely reason for concern in light of it. Pretty confident that this team will never approach that top 20 that seems pretty important and relevant...nor even that lowest bar of #37. The only thing that I can take some solace in with all that you shared was the fact that one of those 4 Purdue teams that was worse than this one lost in the E8...as, I would guess/think that this team is far better/superior offensively to that one.

Out of curiosity...have you dug into numbers to a point where you have an idea of what has made some of the better Purdue teams just that from a defensive perspective? Do numbers generally stay consistent for a recruiting class cycle (and, I know that things change, but, I was curious as to how much variance there is in a 3-4 year window, or, if just one guy can have a dramatic impact of any sort)?

Painter is a defense-oriented guy...he did mention the other night that he and the staff have consciously sacrificed defense for offense with respect to recruiting with the belief that they can teach them/coach defense. We can see that payoff offensively obviously, but, at what cost, and, is the cost too great in this case?

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Appreciate your candidness. I started this thread because there was so many over zealous fans that were posting/predicting some unbelievable things when Purdue was undefeated in November and still do to this day. I wanted to bring a bit of reality into the equation through data rather than pure opinion.

To answer your question on "what was the lowest KenPom defensive rating to play for a National Championship? In post #24, I provided the national champion data for the last 20 years:

	National Champion	Runner Up
"worst" offensive rank	#19 (if you remove outliers #9)	#35 (if you remove outliers #28)
"worst" defensive rank	#22 (if you remove outliers #15)	#37 (if you remove outliers #11)

As a reminder, Purdue is #90 defensively per my last post. You probably understand the point made there.

Said a different way, using the NC data for 18 winners, the NC characteristics are:
- Offensive rank in the top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
- Defensive rank in the top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The reason for Purdue's offensive rankings are related to efficiency.
- Purdue offensively is averaging 1.201 points/possession. That is elite.
- If you notice, most shots are in the paint or from 3, very few mid range.
- In the paint is primarily Edey (71%) and Williams (56%) and misc layups from others. Ivey is the exception.
- 3 point shooting has been great. All volume shooters shooting >40% (except Newman).
- Gillis 51%, JI 44%, SS 42%, IT 42%, Newman 33%, Hunter 39%, Furst 41%, Morton 44%.

Purdue defensively is giving up .969 points/possession this season. That is bad. Here's some Purdue historical perspective.
- In the last 16 years, it ranks as the 5th "worst" defensive efficiency Purdue has had.
- The other 4 times? Missed tournament, Round 32 loss, Round 64 loss and Elite 8 loss.

Does my explanation / additional data help convey the message?

soooo we're going to the elite 8?

 

[charlespig]

I'll answer my own question. Here's the national champion data. The summary?

Offensive rank in the top 4 (13/18) or 72% of the time. Top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
Defensive rank in the top 10 (10/18) or 56%. Top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The magic formula seems to be a Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense.
Avg Offense 121. Average Defense 90. Delta ~31.

	Off.	Off.	Def.	Def.
Year	Rank	Rating	Rank	Rating
2002	4​	119.2​	7​	89.9​
2003	17​	114.4​	14​	91.1​
2004	9​	117.8​	6​	89.5​
2005	2​	122.5​	5​	89.7​
2006	3​	117.9​	7​	89.7​
2007	1​	122.8​	13​	92​
2008	2​	120.9​	1​	85.7​
2009	1​	123.2​	18​	92.1​
2010	1​	121​	5​	87.7​
2011	19​	115.8​	15​	91.9​
2012	2​	122.2​	7​	89.6​
2013	7​	117.7​	1​	84.8​
2015	3​	124.5​	11​	92​
2016	3​	122.8​	5​	90.8​
2017	9​	120.7​	11​	92.5​
2018	1​	127.8​	11​	94​
2019	2​	123.4​	5​	89.2​
2021	2​	125​	22​	91.1​
NC	4.9​	121.1​	9.1​	​ 90.2​

Hey thanks, some really cool stuff here. I'm surprised I am not aware of this thread until today. Thanks for all the data.

I have a question: are your numbers based on the final data, or the pre-Tourney data? For there is a hindsight bias if you use final data. For example, in 2015 (the crazy good 38-1 Kentucky year), Duke won it all with adjEM +32.48, #3 in O and #11 in D. But that's hindsight. Coming into the Tourney, they were #3 and #37 respectively in O and D, and an adjEM of "only" 29.3. By winning 6 straight high quality games, of course their numbers will look a lot better.

 

[Boiler Addict]

The only thing that I can take some solace in with all that you shared was the fact that one of those 4 Purdue teams that was worse than this one lost in the E8...as, I would guess/think that this team is far better/superior offensively to that one.

Out of curiosity...have you dug into numbers to a point where you have an idea of what has made some of the better Purdue teams just that from a defensive perspective? Do numbers generally stay consistent for a recruiting class cycle (and, I know that things change, but, I was curious as to how much variance there is in a 3-4 year window, or, if just one guy can have a dramatic impact of any sort)?

Painter is a defense-oriented guy...he did mention the other night that he and the staff have consciously sacrificed defense for offense with respect to recruiting with the belief that they can teach them/coach defense. We can see that payoff offensively obviously, but, at what cost, and, is the cost too great in this case?

The KenPom 2021-2022 numbers are as of 1/30/2022. They change daily. I like KenPom for simplicity instead of getting into complex efficiency calculations I referenced, (I'm realizing now I should have kept it simple) so here's your 2018-2019 to this year's team KenPom comparison. I do like this year's team more from an offensive standpoint.

KenPom	2018-2019 Rank	2018-2019 Score	2021-2022 Rank	2021-2022 Score
Offense	#4	122.5	#1	125.1
Defense	#34	95.6 (not a lot of great teams)	#90	98.3
Delta	#9	26.81	#8	26.84

As for your other defensive question, I've got some info, but I'll have to dig it up for you. I had done a bunch of analysis about a year ago.

Lastly, Painter has definitely prioritized offense over defense in recruiting. Makes it more fun for fans to watch Purdue games and recruiting from a players "ratings" standpoint has improved. Think of this: TKR (2021), Furst (2021), Ivey (2020), Morton (2020), DGL (2023), Loyer (2022) and Colvin (2023) are all top 20 all time modern Painter era Purdue recruits. I think it brings a more fun style that players are more interested in.

If you look at the 2022 class, 3 more shooters (don't know enough about Berg). From memory, they all shot 40%+ from 3. So this style is going to be around for awhile and will morph a bit with Furst and Berg playing the 5 and can shoot 3's. What's interesting is that Painter has said in previous seasons and multiple multiple times this season, "Defense can travel, but your shot might not. Who are you when the ball doesn't go in the basket?" Purdue is poised to win a lot of games, and with a little better defense, we are going to get spoiled as fans.

 

[Boiler Addict]

Hey thanks, some really cool stuff here. I'm surprised I am not aware of this thread until today. Thanks for all the data.

I have a question: are your numbers based on the final data, or the pre-Tourney data? For there is a hindsight bias if you use final data. For example, in 2015 (the crazy good 38-1 Kentucky year), Duke won it all with adjEM +32.48, #3 in O and #11 in D. But that's hindsight. Coming into the Tourney, they were #3 and #37 respectively in O and D, and an adjEM of "only" 29.3. By winning 6 straight high quality games, of course their numbers will look a lot better.

For KenPom data for previous seasons, I do not have access to see the information at specific time periods, only year end "final" data. So yes, that is a factor to consider. Your point is valid. Some non-KenPom data can be mined for rankings pre-tourney vs. post-tourney, etc.

I would also comment:
1) With an elite offense, being in the 30's is very respectable pre-tourney, even the 40's, compared to where Purdue is now. If Purdue won the NC, I doubt they jump from say 90th to 20th in 6 games, but a jump from the 40's to 20's is plausible depending on the point spread. It will be interesting to see where they are after BIG10 tourney!

2) We know Purdue does not have the same athletes that a Duke or Kentucky would have, think SS, IT, or a feared rim protector, so the collective "ceiling" to improve 25 positions in 6 games, at the end of the season, may be lower.

 

[charlespig]

Lastly, Painter has definitely prioritized offense over defense in recruiting. Makes it more fun for fans to watch Purdue games and recruiting from a players "ratings" standpoint has improved. Think of this: TKR (2021), Furst (2021), Ivey (2020), Morton (2020), DGL (2023), Loyer (2022) and Colvin (2023) are all top 20 all time modern Painter era Purdue recruits. I think it brings a more fun style that players are more interested in.

Again, thanks for your input. Lots of great stuff. I think while Painter might prioritize offense over defense in recruiting, your list doesn't really show that. What it really shows is that Painter is now hitting on his Plan A recruits (remember all the days when we are the best runner-up to guys like Brendan Dawson, Gary Harris, Nick Ward, Xavier Tillman, JJJ, Malik Hall?). The bigger argument for Painter prioritizing offense over defense would actually be guys like Loyer and Smith, both of whom have physical limitation defensively (one too skinny, the other too short ... and you might as well add IT to the list too).

If you look at the 2022 class, 3 more shooters (don't know enough about Berg). From memory, they all shot 40%+ from 3. So this style is going to be around for awhile and will morph a bit with Furst and Berg playing the 5 and can shoot 3's. What's interesting is that Painter has said in previous seasons and multiple multiple times this season, "Defense can travel, but your shot might not. Who are you when the ball doesn't go in the basket?" Purdue is poised to win a lot of games, and with a little better defense, we are going to get spoiled as fans.

Yes, it'll be interesting to see the new brand of Purdue basketball after Edey leaves. A lot of skilled shooters at almost every position. That's basically a must these days and Painter is stockpiling them. He is probably thinking it is easier to teach a skilled player to play defense (which to a large degree is more effort and desire) than someone who can play defense but with no skill (it'll take a much longer time to learn those skills).

 

[charlespig]

I would also comment:
1) With an elite offense, being in the 30's is very respectable pre-tourney, even the 40's, compared to where Purdue is now. If Purdue won the NC, I doubt they jump from say 90th to 20th in 6 games, but a jump from the 40's to 20's is plausible depending on the point spread. It will be interesting to see where they are after BIG10 tourney!

I am even less ambitious. If we can get to the 50s, I take it as a win b/c it shows that we are trending in the right direction. And frankly, if we didn't collapse in the last 2.5 minutes against aO$U and let them make up for an 11-point deficit, our defensive ranking might have improved.

FWIW, UCLA was #86 pre-tourney last year defensively. After a F4 run, they ended up #46. So it can be done. I am cautiously optimistic that our guys will figure out. There are just too many guys who care about winning, our culture being "defense lives here", and Painter and our staff all defensive-minded (Painter, Lusk and Johnson are all better known for defense ... although Painter himself starting to change that with his offensive success) for us not to figure it out.

2) We know Purdue does not have the same athletes that a Duke or Kentucky would have, think SS, IT, or a feared rim protector, so the collective "ceiling" to improve 25 positions in 6 games, at the end of the season, may be lower.

But my question is, what's the difference between this year and last year's squad? Aaron Wheeler is gone, but we replace him with Caleb Furst. Edey/Ivey plays more minutes, Newman a lot less, and Morton more. So why is last year's team #23 pre-tourney (even after UNT still #34)? I can't find a good reason why we can't be in the 30s, because with more experience we should be better in defense (which requires guys be familiar with the system and all on the same page). Is Steve Lutz so much better as a DC than Paul Lusk? Speaking of Lutz, his team is #6 in the entire country in forcing TOs. Never thought of that side from him when he was our DC.