KenPom Data Thoughts

[DAG10]

There's plenty of other areas to bash and insult people. If you're a true Purdue fan, you won't continue that behavior in this thread. Take it somewhere else. On a personal note, it's disappointing to see likeminded adult fans/alumni engage in this type of useless and tasteless banter, it really makes me Purdue proud...

As for a couple posters comments that pretty much say "this is the same team as last year's that finished in the KenPom 30's, why the struggles this year?"

Essentially its -AW, +CF, right? Obviously there was some starting/minutes differences (BN to JI, TW to ZE, EH to IT now back to EH), which I felt was important to note. Here's some data:

Name	2020-21 DRtg	2020-21 MP	2021-22 DRtg*	2021-22 MP*	Delta DRtg
TW	96.4	12.4% (703)	92.8	9.9% (502)	+3.6
ZE	96.4	7.3% (411)	96.2	9.2% (468)	+0.2
JI	100.6	9.9% (557)	101.5	14.3% (724)	-0.9
BN	100	11.7% (662)	102.5	5.0% (253)	-2.5
EM	106.2	3.5% (200)	104.3	7.7% (391)	+1.9
CF & AW	96.4	9.1% (512)	104.6	8.8% (397)	-8.2
MG	103.4	11.0% (622)	105.7	9.2% (465)	-2.3
EH	103.5	13.0% (734)	107.3	11.3% (574)	-3.8
SS	103.8	13.0% (735)	108.2	14.9% (755)	-4.4
IT	107.5	8.8% (497)	110.5	9.4% (479)	-3.0

* 2021-22 DRTG and MP% is as of 02-11-2022.

Centers: (improvement)
TW / ZE improving DRTG and similar MP %

Forwards (regression)
CF / AW big drop off in DRTG and similar MP %
MG regressed in DRTG and MP %

Guards: (severe regression)
BN statistically the best DRTG guard in 2020-21 getting substantially less time.

IT worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG big regression and similar MP %
SS 2nd worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG biggest regression and higher MP %
EH 3rd worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG big regression and losing MP %.
EM improving DRTG and MP %
JI is regressed, but not substantially.

Just commenting on each, I would say that:
- CF playing the 4 vs AW has made a big impact. Frankly, I think CF has done a good job as a freshman with what he (with center skills) has been asked to do, sometimes guarding guards.

- With IT and SS and EH, they can't stop the opposing guards dribble penetration and are not good at recovering on screen defense, which causes Purdue to start going into help defense, rotations, etc. I wouldn't mind setting a more physical tone and more energetic on defense.

- Why Sasha is getting so much time is beyond me. I would suggest less SS in favor of EM.

- I think Painter's post game Wisconsin presser is an indication of what he thinks of JI defense. JI even commented he focused on offense. I think JI can be a shutdown guard, but my opinion from the last couple weeks is that JI doesn't understand/willingly do/have the energy to do what is being asked of him. When I see him really late to get back on defense, walking up the court, not giving full effort, etc. I think he's playing too many minutes. The last 3 games before @ Michigan? 38, 37 and 36 minutes.

Purdue's defensive principles work effectively if everyone is connected. There was a sequence on a possession in the Illinois game with MG and EM that they were switching, hands up, running at guys, etc and I was really impressed! Then various other times in that same game, I see Illinois really good 3% shooters wide open and no close out, general confusion, etc. In the @Michigan game, you see guys making mistakes that are more beginning of the season mistakes and lack of hustle.

I don't think the defense will be "fixed" this year but it can be managed and improved. Purdue's three coaches all have defensive backgrounds, I'm frankly shocked that they're having as much trouble as they are and it leads me to believe it's player oriented. Will the Michigan loss opens the player's eyes and instill a sense of urgency? Time will tell.

Some great information and points...

JI hurts them tremendously at the defensive end...individually and collectively...not going to change...more so even with the minutes issue that you touched on, in that minutes are not going to go down in large part, particularly against the better/best teams.

SS is really, really bad defensively...unlike JI consciously hurting Purdue in some ways, SS is just really bad at the defensive end...and, to your point, the minutes he gets...especially when he is not making shots...just does not add up, and more so in that it hurts Purdue a ton in that you can live with the defensive issues and deficiencies, at least to an extent, when it is offset by some offensive prowess....but, that has been absent of late unfortunately.

Aside of those things, Purdue does not have anyone that is really a good defender...nobody to slow an opposing team's best player(s)...especially on the perimeter.

As for the struggles...some of it IS scheme and principles...but, even that, you are right in that everyone is not connected unfortunately which makes it even less effective as such with this group unfortunately.

It is past the point of being able to be "fixed"...and, I don't see how it can be fixed with this group anyway, as, to your point, it is a player-oriented/personnel issue.

I wondered aloud if this team was just so good offensively that it could overcome how bad it is defensively, and, we have seen that it can't if it is not operating at an elite level offensively...we have recognized what Painter acknowledged...he has sacrificed defense for offense...and, that is the direction Purdue has been moving and he is moving as well...it seems that the issue is to at least have guys that are ok/average defensively. Your last point is one that admittedly worries me...this team lacks a sense of urgency, and, struggles with focus and attention to detail...those are not a good combination obviously.

 

[DTRAW]

We are now down to 12th in kenpom after todays win

Yikes

 

[FirstDownB]

We are now down to 12th in kenpom after todays win

Yikes

But up from 126 to 117 in adjusted defensive efficiency! And we win a game while scoring less than 70!

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

But up from 126 to 117 in adjusted defensive efficiency! And we win a game while scoring less than 70!

Crazy.....

 

[Boiler Addict]

Couple discussions recently that hit on points in this thread:

1) On the Black and Gold Saturday Simulcast, Tom actually asks the question that is the essence of this thread. They speak for 12 minutes answering the question, with Brian mostly speaking. He emphasized:
- how good the team's record is (21-4) and thought it was premature to thinking of March when we are in February. He even mentions that the conversation started in November (which is when this thread started).
- How high Purdue fan expectations are.
- Regarding the defense "Purdue just has to do better."
- He delves into how Purdue has changed from the Keady/early Painter defense minded program, it is constructed with offensive skill in mind, especially the last 5-6 years.
- Purdue needs more attention from personnel, get more dialed in, overachieved last year. They have real limitations from a personnel perspective.
- He felt defensive issues have come from turnovers on the offensive end / roster construction. Not a great team communicating.
- Felt fans in the stands make a difference.
- That teams now know how to attack Purdue.
- Ends with he thinks Purdue can be a better post-season team than regular season team and that Purdue can be an OK defensive team.

Might listen to the whole answer from at 4:27-16:30




2) Matt Painter was on Rothstein's podcast today.
- Spoke on a variety of topics, defense being one of them. I cannot backup the tape to hear certain parts of it again, but from what I recall, Painter's primary response on how to help the defense was better execution on offense / limiting the turnovers!
- He also talks about his best potential "Final 4" teams. Mentions the depth of this year's team.
- the uniqueness of Ivey (he compares him to Morant and Westbrook at 20 yo).
- Spoke about fouling with being up 3 (discussing the Virginia game), playing ZE and TW, Eric Hunter, Caleb Furst and again about Mason Gillis being one of the most efficient basketball players.

 

[DAG10]

Couple discussions recently that hit on points in this thread:

1) On the Black and Gold Saturday Simulcast, Tom actually asks the question that is the essence of this thread. They speak for 12 minutes answering the question, with Brian mostly speaking. He emphasized:
- how good the team's record is (21-4) and thought it was premature to thinking of March when we are in February. He even mentions that the conversation started in November (which is when this thread started).
- How high Purdue fan expectations are.
- Regarding the defense "Purdue just has to do better."
- He delves into how Purdue has changed from the Keady/early Painter defense minded program, it is constructed with offensive skill in mind, especially the last 5-6 years.
- Purdue needs more attention from personnel, get more dialed in, overachieved last year. They have real limitations from a personnel perspective.
- He felt defensive issues have come from turnovers on the offensive end / roster construction. Not a great team communicating.
- Felt fans in the stands make a difference.
- That teams now know how to attack Purdue.
- Ends with he thinks Purdue can be a better post-season team than regular season team and that Purdue can be an OK defensive team.

Might listen to the whole answer from at 4:27-16:30

View embedded media

2) Matt Painter was on Rothstein's podcast today.
- Spoke on a variety of topics, defense being one of them. I cannot backup the tape to hear certain parts of it again, but from what I recall, Painter's primary response on how to help the defense was better execution on offense / limiting the turnovers!
- He also talks about his best potential "Final 4" teams. Mentions the depth of this year's team.
- the uniqueness of Ivey (he compares him to Morant and Westbrook at 20 yo).
- Spoke about fouling with being up 3 (discussing the Virginia game), playing ZE and TW, Eric Hunter, Caleb Furst and again about Mason Gillis being one of the most efficient basketball players.

View embedded media

Thanks...great information.

Regardless of it not being the same as perceived with Keady/Painter, where it is/what it is does not even approach that...it does not approach even decent defense right now...I get moving from those types of teams towards offense, but, you can't just not play defense...that has been proven time and again...like say, people are referencing Purdue as "this year's Iowa", which, really bothered me in that Iowa was SO bad...to the point that it could have just saved time, effort and energy by not even going back to the other end...that this team compares to that is alarming actually. Like say, get the move towards offense...more than ok with a move towards offense...but, can't just not play defense or not be able to.

Not sure what Brian's point was regarding "looking ahead" or whatever...the focus has always been on March...it is always going to be on March.

His best point might have been the one that has been made in a number of other ways...this team at times (too many) lacks focus, attention to detail, concentration and does not communicate well. That, and, that everyone is taking advantage of the weaknesses that were known from last year and remain issues, largely because of personnel.

 

[DrEss]

By this time in every season, after the B1G teams have beaten the living crap out of each other for 2 months, most of us believe getting to the NCAAT will be a breath of from air. Playing new unfamiliar teams and getting on a run like Carson’s team did, playing non-B1G teams and coaches. But unfortunately we are then reminded of the opposite occurring like last year. This team can do either, easily.

 

[FirstDownB]

115th in KenPom AdjD as of this morning

Still 1st in AdjO by a wide margin

 

[DAG10]

115th in KenPom AdjD as of this morning

Still 1st in AdjO by a wide margin

There were some breakdowns at points yesterday, but, also some of the best defense of the year...individually and collectively. They stopped dribble penetration better than they had on a number of occasions.

Not enough time to genuinely fix much at this point...some things here and there (and, in Purdue's case, every little bit helps)...and, personnel is who/what it is...but, guys played with much more effort at that end yesterday, which was a bonus and made a difference.

Purdue won't win games because of defense...it just can't lose games because of it from this point on.

 

[Hausta01]

There were some breakdowns at points yesterday, but, also some of the best defense of the year...individually and collectively. They stopped dribble penetration better than they had on a number of occasions.

Not enough time to genuinely fix much at this point...some things here and there (and, in Purdue's case, every little bit helps)...and, personnel is who/what it is...but, guys played with much more effort at that end yesterday, which was a bonus and made a difference.

Purdue won't win games because of defense...it just can't lose games because of it from this point on.

And not going to kill them for coasting a little after a 20 point lead that never got closer than 10 and that was with like 1:30 left.

I would like to see them just crush a team after being up 20, but this team doesn't seem to have that kind of intensity... or something. At least not to this point, maybe tournament Boilers keep the pedal to the floor

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

There were some breakdowns at points yesterday, but, also some of the best defense of the year...individually and collectively. They stopped dribble penetration better than they had on a number of occasions.

Not enough time to genuinely fix much at this point...some things here and there (and, in Purdue's case, every little bit helps)...and, personnel is who/what it is...but, guys played with much more effort at that end yesterday, which was a bonus and made a difference.

Purdue won't win games because of defense...it just can't lose games because of it from this point on.

Thought they did a good job on Baker, who has burned them before....he hit a couple of tough shots late....also, when they weren't over-rotating, they did ok on Harper Jr., IMO. Now, Mulcahy is becoming very crafty and was a problem, but they got him and McConnel in foul trouble. Omoyuri did his thing inside......Rutgers played fairly smart and worked their game......but Purdue matched them and executed and limited the turnovers. If I were nitpicking (Nah.....I don't do that )....a couple of loose ball failures led to second chance points.

Also.....Purdue had something like 19 points off turnovers - THAT's huge for them.

As DAG points out.....not going to be the staple, but when they string enough stops together, that will work if they play smart everywhere else. That 6+ minute stretch covering the last two minutes of the opening half and the first four minutes of the second half......20-1 to break it open and Rutgers never really recovered.

Oh.....and then there's that guy named Ivey......he's not too bad.

Gotta keep it going......a suddenly desperate/hungry Michigan State team awaits in East Lansing on Saturday. No time to relax.

 

[Boiler Addict]

Now that we have discussed the national championship KenPom numbers, the next question I had was "how did teams that were similar to Purdue's KenPom data do in the tournament?"

So I ran a search for all teams that made the NCAA tournament from 2012-2021 (9 tournaments) that were:
- In the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense.

41/612 or 7% of the teams pop up. The losses occurred in this manner.
- This means no team made it to the Final 4.
- 15/41 or 37% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8).

Round Advancement	# of Teams Lost	% of Teams
Elite 8	4​	10%​
Sweet 16	11​	27%​
Round 32	11​	27%​
Round 64	12​	29%​
Round 68	3​	7%​

Filtering a little more for teams that were:
- In the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up.
- 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8).

Round Advancement	# of Teams Lost	% of Teams
Elite 8	3​	14%​
Sweet 16	9​	43%​
Round 32	5​	24%​
Round 64	4​	19%​
Round 68	0​	0%​

 

[Boiler Addict]

Here's the 21 teams advancement by seed.
- #1 and #2 seeds are 1/6 in making it to the second weekend.
- #3 seeds are 3/5 in making it to the second weekend.
- #4 through #7 seeds are 8/10 in making it to the second weekend.
- Seems statistically odd, but small sample size.

Lost in Round	Seed #1​	Seed #2​	Seed #3​	Seed #4​	Seed #5​	Seed #7​	Grand Total​
08 - Elite 8		1​	1​			1​	3​
16 - Sweet 16			2​	3​	2​	2​	9​
32 - Round 32	1​	1​	1​			2​	5​
64 - Round 64		3​	1​				4​
Grand Total	1​	5​	5​	3​	2​	5​	21​

Here's the 21 teams that fit the criteria by year.

Year	Rk	Team	Conf	W-L	AdjEM	AdjO	Adj Rk	AdjD	AdjD Rk	Seed	Tournament Result
2012	7	Missouri	B12	30-5	25.28	125.1	1	99.8	111	2	64 - Round 64
2012	9	Indiana	B10	27-9	22.55	120.2	4	97.6	72	4	16 - Sweet 16
2012	10	Florida	SEC	26-11	22.47	120.4	3	98	80	7	08 - Elite 8
2012	19	Duke	ACC	27-7	19.7	117.7	8	98	79	2	64 - Round 64
2013	15	Creighton	MVC	28-8	21.75	118.3	5	96.5	66	7	32 - Round 32
2014	8	Duke	ACC	26-9	24.25	124.7	1	100.4	86	3	64 - Round 64
2014	12	Michigan	B10	28-9	23.44	123.9	3	100.5	89	2	08 - Elite 8
2014	17	Creighton	BE	27-8	21.72	124.2	2	102.5	124	3	32 - Round 32
2014	20	Iowa St.	B12	28-8	21.07	118.9	9	97.8	55	3	16 - Sweet 16
2015	9	Notre Dame	ACC	32-6	24.96	125.4	2	100.4	99	3	08 - Elite 8
2016	11	Indiana	B10	27-8	23.05	121.7	6	98.7	59	5	16 - Sweet 16
2016	17	Duke	ACC	25-11	21.87	121.9	4	100	86	4	16 - Sweet 16
2016	20	Iowa St.	B12	23-12	20.95	121.2	7	100.3	91	4	16 - Sweet 16
2017	16	UCLA	P12	31-5	23.63	124	2	100.4	85	3	16 - Sweet 16
2017	20	Michigan	B10	26-12	23.05	122.3	4	99.2	69	7	16 - Sweet 16
2018	15	Xavier	BE	29-6	21.51	120.1	8	98.6	57	1	32 - Round 32
2019	18	Wofford	SC	30-5	20.69	118.1	10	97.4	56	7	32 - Round 32
2021	7	Iowa	B10	22-9	26.87	123.5	3	96.7	75	2	32 - Round 32
2021	11	Ohio St.	B10	21-10	23.58	120.7	4	97.1	82	2	64 - Round 64
2021	12	Villanova	BE	18-7	23.02	119	6	96	66	5	16 - Sweet 16
2021	16	Oregon	P12	21-7	21.85	117.2	10	95.4	55	7	16 - Sweet 16

 

[Gemini95]

Jesus we are literally that 2012 Missouri team. Hope we win a game lol.

 

[FirstDownB]

Jesus we are literally that 2012 Missouri team. Hope we win a game lol.

2015 ND is also a pretty good comp statistically. They were an eyelash from the final four.

 

[Boiler Addict]

February update and important previous notes:

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th

- Purdue's defense has slipped in the rankings for 3 months now.
- KenPom's Top 20 defense is currently 93.5.
- KenPom Top 20 overall currently has two teams with defenses worse than 35th. Purdue 105th, Iowa 89th.

I actually think this is good that Purdue is being challenged on:
- pick and roll repeatedly through the season
- the doubling the post/rotations needed to cover 3 point shooters
- teams like Michigan St and Illinois go 1-1 against our centers and stay home on 3 point shooters
- teams also focus their defense on slowing Ivey
- full court pressure

The team will hopefully learn from all of it and progress. We know fundamentally things will not change, but the more you practice (or deal with it during the games), the more prepared they can be for the future. I know it's getting late in the season to say that, but this 24-5 team is generally young and still learning.

Consider this team is 15-1 at home, 4-0 neutral site, 5-4 on true road games. Of the 5 losses, the team had a chance to win in 4 out of 5, and the Michigan game was the only "bad" game. That's a darn good season.

Other notes: I still think more Ethan Morton could be a benefit playing more (and Sasha/Ivey stay in the ~32 minute range) and Eric Hunter driving to the lane has looked really good. I hope he does more of that. Need these final two wins to close the season and celebrate a share of the BIG10 regular season championship and a double bye in the BIG10 tournament!

 

[FirstDownB]

February update and important previous notes:

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th

- Purdue's defense has slipped in the rankings for 3 months now.
- KenPom's Top 20 defense is currently 93.5.
- KenPom Top 20 overall currently has two teams with defenses worse than 35th. Purdue 105th, Iowa 89th.

I actually think this is good that Purdue is being challenged on:
- pick and roll repeatedly through the season
- the doubling the post/rotations needed to cover 3 point shooters
- teams like Michigan St and Illinois go 1-1 against our centers and stay home on 3 point shooters
- teams also focus their defense on slowing Ivey
- full court pressure

The team will hopefully learn from all of it and progress. We know fundamentally things will not change, but the more you practice (or deal with it during the games), the more prepared they can be for the future. I know it's getting late in the season to say that, but this 24-5 team is generally young and still learning.

Consider this team is 15-1 at home, 4-0 neutral site, 5-4 on true road games. Of the 5 losses, the team had a chance to win in 4 out of 5, and the Michigan game was the only "bad" game. That's a darn good season.

Other notes: I still think more Ethan Morton could be a benefit playing more (and Sasha/Ivey stay in the ~32 minute range) and Eric Hunter driving to the lane has looked really good. I hope he does more of that. Need these final two wins to close the season and celebrate a share of the BIG10 regular season championship and a double bye in the BIG10 tournament!

I think we would literally need to shut out Wisconsin and IU to finish top 50 defense.

There was some discussion about how this compared statistically to past Purdue teams, some of which had imbalance between offense and defense, but with defense as the strength.

KenPom summary of this year's team vs. the past 15 years for Purdue

Year	AdjO	AdjD
2022​	1​	105​
2021​	26​	34​
2020​	50​	11​
2019​	4​	34​
2018​	2​	31​
2017​	24​	23​
2016​	19​	11​
2015​	61​	54​
2014​	119​	90​
2013​	98​	70​
2012​	10​	114​
2011​	18​	8​
2010​	65​	4​
2009​	60​	5​
2008​	60​	16​
2007​	74​	15​

What is most striking to me is that, with the same coach at the helm, Purdue has had roughly equal number of offensively minded, defensively minded, and balanced teams. In the end it matters what your personnel is more than coaching (the Jimmys and the Joes). It also shows the trend toward more offensive personnel in recent years. That four year stretch between 2016 and 2019 had more ideal balance between offense and defense, along with 2011.

Also worth noting that Purdue really has NOT had a team that was the true inverse of this year's team as in being a top defensive team with a mediocre offense. The closest one would have been the 2009-10 team with #65 ranked offense and #4 ranked defense. The two teams that were truly mediocre on offense were also truly mediocre on defense.

To the point above, the fact that this team is playing defense on the level of teams featuring the likes of Ronnie Johnson at the point and DJ Byrd at power forward gives me hope that maybe they are just holding back a little for the post season and there is another gear in the 2021-22 team's engine.

 

[proudopete]

I think we would literally need to shut out Wisconsin and IU to finish top 50 defense.

There was some discussion about how this compared statistically to past Purdue teams, some of which had imbalance between offense and defense, but with defense as the strength.

KenPom summary of this year's team vs. the past 15 years for Purdue

Year	AdjO	AdjD
2022​	1​	105​
2021​	26​	34​
2020​	50​	11​
2019​	4​	34​
2018​	2​	31​
2017​	24​	23​
2016​	19​	11​
2015​	61​	54​
2014​	119​	90​
2013​	98​	70​
2012​	10​	114​
2011​	18​	8​
2010​	65​	4​
2009​	60​	5​
2008​	60​	16​
2007​	74​	15​

What is most striking to me is that, with the same coach at the helm, Purdue has had roughly equal number of offensively minded, defensively minded, and balanced teams. In the end it matters what your personnel is more than coaching (the Jimmys and the Joes). It also shows the trend toward more offensive personnel in recent years. That four year stretch between 2016 and 2019 had more ideal balance between offense and defense, along with 2011.

Also worth noting that Purdue really has NOT had a team that was the true inverse of this year's team as in being a top defensive team with a mediocre offense. The closest one would have been the 2009-10 team with #65 ranked offense and #4 ranked defense. The two teams that were truly mediocre on offense were also truly mediocre on defense.

To the point above, the fact that this team is playing defense on the level of teams featuring the likes of Ronnie Johnson at the point and DJ Byrd at power forward gives me hope that maybe they are just holding back a little for the post season and there is another gear in the 2021-22 team's engine.

How can the same team as last year drop so far? Was Wheels that good on defense?

 

[FirstDownB]

How can the same team as last year drop so far? Was Wheels that good on defense?

He was much better at guarding the perimeter than Furst, but that alone doesn’t get you from 34 to 105.

 

[indyogb]

If the basketball gods have any sense of humor, at all, they will guide us to the championship just to spite the KenPom statistics. I'm sure sports radio shows could spend at least a few days talking about it.

 

[rsomm]

Computers don't play, coach or have any idea if a player is gone to be hot or cold. If you look at Wisconsin per Pomeroy they are closer to a 4 seed, but if you look at ESPN BPI resume, they on the one line!

 

[DAG10]

How can the same team as last year drop so far? Was Wheels that good on defense?

Crazy to think it, much less try to believe it, but, this team could have benefited from Wheels...not sure how he would have felt about it, and, REALLY easy to say that in hindsight as nobody could have foreseen the Newman situation, or, that Furst would be a completely different player in Conference play/post Covid.

 

[DAG10]

Jesus we are literally that 2012 Missouri team. Hope we win a game lol.

I really appreciate the information provided here, and, it is informative and interesting...but, I feel like Purdue is screwed when I read through it, and, it just gets worse in that regard with each subsequent visit.

I think stats can be overrated...I hate the overuse and reliance on analytics...but, there is so much information here and so much hard data that if Purdue were to somehow overcome it, I would question most all stats and analytics...admittedly, as much as I would love for it to happen and hope that it might, I am not holding my breath.

 

[FirstDownB]

As the season is reaching a crescendo and the defenses are stiffening up, the importance of offensive/defensive balance is coming to light. Those that believe this team is a historical exception believe the offense is so great it can overcome defensive deficiencies in the the tourney. Truth be told, Purdue has not been "out offensing" teams for over a month now. A lot of the successful plays and action from early in the season are simply not there now. Remember the back cuts, the open 3's, the pretty passes? Now... Too well scouted, too few opponent defensive breakdowns. Buckets are harder to come by for everyone, #1 offense included.

 

[Boiler Addict]

End of season/conference tournament update and key previous notes.

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th
03/15/2022	22.29	14th	121.3	3rd	99.0	100th

Since it's tournament time and I have the data, here's what I pulled up.
Yale - KenPom delta 2.23 (147th). Offense 101.5 (203rd), Defense 99.2 (103rd)

Purdue (22.29) vs. Yale (2.23). In my last 9 year data set, there has been 3/603 games that have lost with a worst KenPom rating delta (2012 Missouri, 2016 Michigan St, 2018 Virginia) and two others that are close to the delta (2015 Iowa St and 2021 Ohio St).

Looking really good for Purdue.


Next up potentially:
Texas - KenPom delta 20.41 (15th). Offense 111.8 (32nd). Defense 91.4 (13th)
or
Virginia Tech - KenPom delta 17.86 (23rd). Offense 114.3 (18th). Defense 96.4 (54th)

 

[FirstDownB]

End of season/conference tournament update and key previous notes.

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th
03/15/2022	22.29	14th	121.3	3rd	99.0	100th

Since it's tournament time and I have the data, here's what I pulled up.
Yale - KenPom delta 2.23 (147th). Offense 101.5 (203rd), Defense 99.2 (103rd)

Purdue (22.29) vs. Yale (2.23). In my last 9 year data set, there has been 3/603 games that have lost with a worst KenPom rating delta (2012 Missouri, 2016 Michigan St, 2018 Virginia) and two others that are close to the delta (2015 Iowa St and 2021 Ohio St).

Looking really good for Purdue.


Next up potentially:
Texas - KenPom delta 20.41 (15th). Offense 111.8 (32nd). Defense 91.4 (13th)
or
Virginia Tech - KenPom delta 17.86 (23rd). Offense 114.3 (18th). Defense 96.4 (54th)

Is there another team anywhere in the bracket that is guaranteed to face a top 25 team in the second round?

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Is there another team anywhere in the bracket that is guaranteed to face a top 25 team in the second round?

Nope. Virginia Tech is ranked in the Coaches Poll, only.....receiving the most votes of non-ranked teams in the AP Poll.

 

[Boiler Addict]

Update to close out the season for the important notes.

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

Kansas Delta 27.49. Offense 119.2 (6th) and Defense 91.7 (17).
Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense, what a surprise.
Historically speaking, this Kansas team was not as strong as previous winners.


2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Purdue's final delta was 22.36 and finished 29-8 with a 3 seed.
Pretty close to hitting the projected record and seed when you consider that was comments made in November.


3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Purdue joins the majority that have made it to the second weekend but not to the Final 4. Reviewing post 132, Purdue advanced to the same spot most of the 21 teams do, Sweet 16.


Ken Pom numbers through the season

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th
03/15/2022	22.29	14th	121.3	3rd	99.0	100th
04/05/2022	22.36	14th	121.0	2nd	98.6	93rd

Ultimately, at the end of the season Purdue rotations shortened, the offense sputtered and the defense struggled then improved slightly. I don't understand some of the rotations that were used, but it is what it is. I think Painter can be too cerebral when it comes to basketball.

I felt a shift in the team especially after the Illinois win on 2022-02-08. This has been discussed in other threads so I'll just keep it brief. The offense was seemingly more Ivey focused, less system/process based. Think this had an effect on role players shooting, such as Sasha, Gillis, et al.

Through the Illinois game
- The team went 21-3 in the first 24 games
- The team scored >=75 points 20/24 games
- Ivey had 2 games of 4+ turnovers the first 24 games (first game of the season and Nicholls St)
- Ivey avg. 2.2 TO/game
- Ivey 3 pt % 41%

After Illinois game
- The team went 8-5 the last 13 games
- The team scored >=75 points only 4/13 games.
- Ivey had 4 games of 5+ turnovers the last 13 games (all losses)
- Ivey avg. 3.4 TO/game
- Ivey 3 pt % 27%

 

[depthcharge623]

Update to close out the season for the important notes.

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

Kansas Delta 27.49. Offense 119.2 (6th) and Defense 91.7 (17).
Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense, what a surprise.
Historically speaking, this Kansas team was not as strong as previous winners.


2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Purdue's final delta was 22.36 and finished 29-8 with a 3 seed.
Pretty close to hitting the projected record and seed when you consider that was comments made in November.


3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Purdue joins the majority that have made it to the second weekend but not to the Final 4. Reviewing post 132, Purdue advanced to the same spot most of the 21 teams do, Sweet 16.


Ken Pom numbers through the season

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th
03/15/2022	22.29	14th	121.3	3rd	99.0	100th
04/05/2022	22.36	14th	121.0	2nd	98.6	93rd

Ultimately, at the end of the season Purdue rotations shortened, the offense sputtered and the defense struggled then improved slightly. I don't understand some of the rotations that were used, but it is what it is. I think Painter can be too cerebral when it comes to basketball.

I felt a shift in the team especially after the Illinois win on 2022-02-08. This has been discussed in other threads so I'll just keep it brief. The offense was seemingly more Ivey focused, less system/process based. Think this had an effect on role players shooting, such as Sasha, Gillis, et al.

Through the Illinois game
- The team went 21-3 in the first 24 games
- The team scored >=75 points 20/24 games
- Ivey had 2 games of 4+ turnovers the first 24 games (first game of the season and Nicholls St)
- Ivey avg. 2.2 TO/game
- Ivey 3 pt % 41%

After Illinois game
- The team went 8-5 the last 13 games
- The team scored >=75 points only 4/13 games.
- Ivey had 4 games of 5+ turnovers the last 13 games (all losses)
- Ivey avg. 3.4 TO/game
- Ivey 3 pt % 27%

Any idea what the average shots per game Ivey took over each of those spans?

 

[Boiler Addict]

Any idea what the average shots per game Ivey took over each of those spans?

I had looked at it and it was very similar quantity for 2 pt/3pt shots, FT's average went up from <6 to 7+.
Something like 12 shots a game, with (7) 2 point shots and (5) 3 point shots.

The St. Peter's game was the first time he had 0 FT's in nearly 30 games, but he was on shot quantity average otherwise. St. Peter's game was his highest turnover game of the season (6).

 

[indyogb]

I'm not sure how much I care about the rankings, mostly because I felt we played one of our worst games of the year at the worst time against Saint Peters, to the point of it being a statistical anomaly. The only poorer effort was at Michigan. If we had had even the normal Jaden Ivey production against Saint Peters, we would have gotten to North Carolina (but likely no farther without an unusual statistical anomaly in our favor).

So much for my "just be #1 on April 5th" spiel. 😔

 

[DAG10]

Update to close out the season for the important notes.

1) The magic formula for national champions typically is KenPom score of ~31. Top 10 Offense (~121) and Top 20 Defense (~90).

Kansas Delta 27.49. Offense 119.2 (6th) and Defense 91.7 (17).
Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense, what a surprise.
Historically speaking, this Kansas team was not as strong as previous winners.


2) There's 36 teams that fit within the +/- 1 of Purdue's November KenPom of 26.57 (25.57-27.57) range over the last 20 years; averaged 29.5 wins, 6.2 losses and an NCAA seed of 2.65.

Purdue's final delta was 22.36 and finished 29-8 with a 3 seed.
Pretty close to hitting the projected record and seed when you consider that was comments made in November.


3) Filtering NCAA data for the last 9 tournaments for teams in the Top10 in KenPom Offense AND >50 in KenPom Defense AND Overall KenPom Score in Top 20.

There's 21/612 or 3.5% of the teams that pop up. 12/21 or 57% of the teams make it to the second weekend of the tournament (Sweet 16 / Elite 8). No team has made it to the Final 4.

Purdue joins the majority that have made it to the second weekend but not to the Final 4. Reviewing post 132, Purdue advanced to the same spot most of the 21 teams do, Sweet 16.


Ken Pom numbers through the season

Date	Delta	Delta Rank	Offense	Offense Rank	Defense	Def Rank
11/17/2021	26.57	4th
12/02/2021	29.06	2nd	121.6	1st	92.5	36th
12/30/2021	27.22	4th	121.6	1st	94.4	59th
01/30/2022	26.84	8th	125.1	1st	98.3	90th
02/28/2022	23.42	13th	123.4	1st	99.9	105th
03/15/2022	22.29	14th	121.3	3rd	99.0	100th
04/05/2022	22.36	14th	121.0	2nd	98.6	93rd

Ultimately, at the end of the season Purdue rotations shortened, the offense sputtered and the defense struggled then improved slightly. I don't understand some of the rotations that were used, but it is what it is. I think Painter can be too cerebral when it comes to basketball.

I felt a shift in the team especially after the Illinois win on 2022-02-08. This has been discussed in other threads so I'll just keep it brief. The offense was seemingly more Ivey focused, less system/process based. Think this had an effect on role players shooting, such as Sasha, Gillis, et al.

Through the Illinois game
- The team went 21-3 in the first 24 games
- The team scored >=75 points 20/24 games
- Ivey had 2 games of 4+ turnovers the first 24 games (first game of the season and Nicholls St)
- Ivey avg. 2.2 TO/game
- Ivey 3 pt % 41%

After Illinois game
- The team went 8-5 the last 13 games
- The team scored >=75 points only 4/13 games.
- Ivey had 4 games of 5+ turnovers the last 13 games (all losses)
- Ivey avg. 3.4 TO/game
- Ivey 3 pt % 27%

Nothing here is a surprise...nothing...and, it only goes to the point of the metrics having validity seemingly.

I did not spend the time (but thankfully you did) to look at what happened after the Illinois game, but, there clearly was a dramatic shift, and, these numbers don't just support it, they point to it and accentuate it.

You touched on Painter being "too cerebral" and I agree, but, at the same time, for as into metrics and analytics as he is, hard to fathom how what happened after Illinois escaped him.

 

[Boiler Addict]

Kicking off the dust to the thread. This thread is about using KenPom historical data and trends in relation to the NCAA tournament and I compare that to where the current Purdue's team is.

Current 2023 comments, per current KenPom historical data:
- Purdue seems to be overachieving their current record
- Typically this KenPom score range would average a 2 or 3 seed.
- Purdue is positioned so much better than last year's team to make a deep NCAA run, in fact, is much more in line with that "magic formula" I keep mentioning.

I'm curious if Purdue slips down the stretch like they did last year, see my excerpt from Post 148 below for what happened last year.


Here's the 2023 KenPom ratings through January 31, 2023.
Purdue (+26.28) 5th (very close to 3rd @ 26.38)
Adj O (119.6) 4th
Adj D (93.3) 17th


POST 24: Here's the national champion data. The summary?

Offensive rank in the top 4 (13/18) or 72% of the time. Top 10 (16/18) or 89% of the time.
Defensive rank in the top 10 (10/18) or 56%. Top 20 (17/18) or 94% of the time.

The magic formula seems to be a Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense.
Avg Offense 121. Average Defense 90. Delta ~31.


POST 7: "what is the avg ranking for the NCAA Champion..."

34/38, or 89% of teams in KenPom Top10 for the season were in the national championship game.
KenPom #1-#3 rankings were in the NC game (24/38 times) 63%.
KenPom #4-#10 rankings were in the NC game (10/38 times) 26%
KenPom higher than #10 were in the NC game (4/38) = ~11%.

... the average score for 18 champions is 30.91.
- Range is 23.93-35.21.
- 16 NC's with a score >=28.22 (w/ an average of 31.82)


POST 148: 2022 Kansas NCAA Champion and Purdue Summary
Kansas Delta 27.49. Offense 119.2 (6th) and Defense 91.7 (17).
Top 10 Offense and Top 20 Defense, what a surprise.

Purdue's Basketball Team
- The team went 21-3 in the first 24 games
- The team scored >=75 points 20/24 games
- The team went 8-5 the last 13 games
- The team scored >=75 points only 4/13 games.

 

[Bleedinggoldandblack]

Obviously forgot to factor The Big Maple 🍁

 

[Do Dah Day]

Holy kow - I have a major headache, but a full handle. Life will be fine. Just win ... all the other stuff will analutically metric out

 

[Boiler Addict]

Current 2023 comments, per current KenPom historical data:
- Purdue seems to be overachieving their current record
- Typically this KenPom score range would average a 2 or 3 seed.
- Purdue is positioned so much better than last year's team to make a deep NCAA run, in fact, is much more in line with that "magic formula" I keep mentioning.

I'm curious if Purdue slips down the stretch like they did last year, see my excerpt from Post 148 below for what happened last year.

Here's the 2023 KenPom ratings through January 31, 2023.
Purdue (+26.28) 5th (very close to 3rd @ 26.38)
Adj O (119.6) 4th
Adj D (93.3) 17th

POST 148: 2022 Kansas NCAA Champion and Purdue Summary
Purdue's Basketball Team (2021-22)
- The team went 21-3 in the first 24 games
- The team scored >=75 points 20/24 games
- The team went 8-5 the last 13 games
- The team scored >=75 points only 4/13 games.

3/6/23 KenPom Update:
Purdue (+24.18) 6th
Adj O (119.2) 11th
Adj D (95.0) 23rd

Ironically, what KenPom is now indicating is that the offense is on the fringe of ability to make a deep NCAA run. I think production from both the 2 and 3 position is key. Loyer is 11/49 from 3 (since mid January) and has the worst defensive rating on the team.

Since the Feb 1 post, Purdue has slipped on offense and defense. The struggle is very similar to 2021-22.

	2021-22	2022-23
First 24 games	21-3	22-2
Remaining games	8-5	4-3* (season not finished)

 

[TX4GB]

This was before the Illini game i think