Other observations made to support Painter's decisions were - we just hung 84 points on the Illini, who were statistically one of the best defenses in the conference/country (even after last night, they're 23rd). Archie also said that Purdue/Painter have the scheme and culture to be good defensively. So that improvement over the next few weeks and/or in selected spots of games is achievable - should he choose to play his better defenders.
KenPom Data Thoughts
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Interesting that this is getting national attention. Agree with the metric or not, Purdue's jumps off the page as an outlier, which makes for good discussion.
Personally, I am not expecting a ton of movement at this point. We are 24 games in with only 7 left to play prior to the tourneys. There is a large sample size established, which will be difficult to move as evidenced by last night's game. I do believe the defense is improved and certainly good enough to win games. This could be a team that breaks the mold.
It is clear that Painter/Purdue have sacrificed defense or offense...Painter said as much recently...and, in their case, they are elite offensively...it is not as if they went from the best defensive country in the team to the worst to go from ok on offense to good.
I said to my son as we were going up to the game last night and discussing this very topic (Purdue defensively) that last night's game would be another test...of two things actually...one, is the defensive sacrifice for offense too great in knowing that they were playing a really good offensive AND defensive team in Illinois...could a great offense be great enough against a good defensive team that is good offensively as well to overcome its alleged bad defense, and, two, just how bad is the defense in that it was going to be pretty apparent I thought in playing against a team that is as good as Illinois at both ends as stops were going to be important at some point.
Purdue was even better defensively last night than what will come out of it statistically in that the officials did Purdue absolutely no favors...it cost them actual points multiple times...it led to extra possessions a couple of times...and, it resulted in different rotations than it would have otherwise, impacted more probably by guys being off the floor more than by guys being off of it (i.e., guys sitting more than they generally would).
Yes, there were some glaring mistakes at times at the defensive end...but, there also were some possessions that were pretty outstanding at that end as well...and, that has been the case in many of the games in the past 2-3 weeks as well.
I initially had pretty serious concerns in trying to digest everything that OP/Boiler Addict had shared and followed up with, but, those have faded. I still have concerns, but, not near to the extent that I did. Maybe I will look back and realize that I should have been more concerned and my initial concern should have prevailed, but, as it stands...I stick with my thought that the metric is not as accurate or valid (that something is missing to account for why Purdue's rating is so poor despite it not being just awful defensively as it would suggest)...and, that Purdue is not near as bad as the metric would suggest.
I agree. Last night Purdue hung 84 on the 23rd best defensive team; and held the 19th best offensive team to 68.
While talking about sacrificing defense for offense, keep in mind that Painter has probably observed that his famously good defensive teams never cleared the Sweet Sixteen. Maybe he is trying a different approach. Shocking since he is so stubborn (TIC)!
If the season ended today, Purdue would have the 3rd most efficient offense ever recorded per KenPom, 126.7, behind only the 17-18 Nova NC team that ripped thru the tourney, 127.8, and the 14-15 Wisky team that got hosed against Duke (go figure) in the national championship game, 129.0.
Meh. We're 21-3 and tied for the B1G lead. Somebody post a picture of all the NCAA trophies on the KenPom mantle.
I read that Purdue currently has eight players (with at least 10 attempts) shooting at least 40% from 3 this season and if that holds for the rest of the season - it would be the most by any team. Ever. Purdue also has eight players (with at least 20 attempts) over 50% from 2, of which three are over 63%. Both Underwood and Painter talked post game last night that the high ball screen action with Jaden is something Purdue started doing much more over the last few games. Because, it works. I think SVP said during the Sports Center segment with Coach Painter after the game, that Jaden scored or assisted on 19 straight Purdue points in that decisive stretch in the second half. If only Painter could coach. Or would make adjustments . . . (tic). Trust in Painter. The Underwood post game presser is worth watching. Same with J. Howard's from over the weekend. It'll give you an idea of how difficult it is to play Purdue even if you have a really good team and are coached by a really good coach. Both of those guys were pretty pointed in saying just how difficult it is to prepare for and play this Purdue team. I started following Purdue in the sixties. Both FFs occurred in my lifetime. The most recent while I was a student. This team is good. Really good. Seem like good guys that enjoy playing together and represent the university well. All of which makes this team a ton of fun to watch play. I don't know where this ride will end. I'm not putting any artificial "X or bust" expectations on it, either. I'm simply enjoying every minute of it.
After all that, our defensive rating went down. That's definitely curious. There's always a first time, and this would be a great year for the first 100+ KenPom defensively rated National Champion.
Yeah, I now am VERY skeptical of the metric...@pubill mentioned it in the thread...given that it went down, the metric and its validity definitely warrants being questioned.After all that, our defensive rating went down. That's definitely curious. There's always a first time, and this would be a great year for the first 100+ KenPom defensively rated National Champion.
I know we are all experts on this board, but you know the saying about opinions, everyone has one. Here's some recent conversations on Purdue's defense.
Brad Underwood's post game press conference after last night's game, specifically when he talks about Purdue's defense. Some of his statements were very interesting.
For those with more time, take a listen to what Brian Neubert (the writer for Gold and Black) said on the Orange and Blue (Illinois) podcast on 02-07-2022 about Purdue's defense.
https://orangeandbluenews.podbean.com/e/preview-illinois-basketball-at-purdue/
Brad Underwood's post game press conference after last night's game, specifically when he talks about Purdue's defense. Some of his statements were very interesting.
For those with more time, take a listen to what Brian Neubert (the writer for Gold and Black) said on the Orange and Blue (Illinois) podcast on 02-07-2022 about Purdue's defense.
https://orangeandbluenews.podbean.com/e/preview-illinois-basketball-at-purdue/
I mean, Brian knows as well as anyone...and he was pretty accurate with what he said. Especially regarding defending the high ball screen...an issue for Purdue for some time actually...and, Underwood underscored it and pointed it out as well. My greatest concern for Purdue is facing a really good guard...that is not going to change...Curbelo even at less than full strength mostly had his way again last night, just as in Champaign...like say, a team with a good guard or good guards will be trouble in ways for Purdue...just a matter if they can overcome it by enough at the other end.
Regardless, how Purdue's ranking could have dropped after last night has to make one question the value/accuracy...just not possible to drop after that performance defensively. And, frankly, in that it did...and in that it has and I was skeptical given that Purdue has/had been better...I am back to thinking that there is something amiss somewhere with respect to the metric, as, Purdue was arguably not just better, but, far superior last night defensively...yet, could not be perceived differently than Illinois from a defensive standpoint...in large part because of this actual metric.
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Bump. This is the concern for our defense. If we have an off offensive night in the NCAAT, our defense is not going to save us. Purdue dropped to 10th overall in KenPom with the loss tonight. More alarming, we’re down to 126th in defense. This team is not good, let alone great, on defense. We’re going to have to cross our fingers and ride our offense if we want a FF or NC.
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Defense is not good enough to make it past the Sweet 16....maybe try match up zone like Syracuse. Oh wait...that is a mortal sin at Purdue (Geno and Matty)
I just hope we get a tournament draw like Houston got last year. I’m certainly not thinking the sky is falling, but if we get to a S16 or E8 and face a team with a good offense, I just don’t see how this team wins that game without getting very lucky.
Yeah, I concede...I was wrong...way wrong even apparently.
I still don't trust the metric, but, no getting around after what just happened that this team is more in trouble than I ever allowed for.
Offensive/defensive metrics aside...I don't know that any team that won a National Title (or even made a FF) lost by 30 at any point before it.
That embarrassment tonight reminded me of '87 in Ann Arbor when the same thing happened with a B1G Title on the line, and, it did not bode well for what happened thereafter unfortunately (for Purdue...sadly, it could not have worked out better for Indinia...in large part because of the loss in Ann Arbor).
Crawl back in your hole or sack up and call in to the Painter show and give your 'expertise'. Or better even, just STFU. 'Fans' like you are nothing but a cancer.
I can't remember a national title contender ever getting beaten so badly, so the loss isn't very reassuring. However, it might be prudent not to read too much into this game as it was a ridiculous scheduling quirk.
Yeah I think this will end up being an anomaly as this team is still very good.
Oh ok thanks. Better than someone like you that cant identify issues and just spouts the company line
Which I don't do and you would know that if you weren't just out to post when we lose. But clearly the context of things posted on here are over your head. Otherwise you wouldn't just show up and take such joy when we lose. Like I said, you're a cancer. Go 'root' for someone else.
I looked back thru your previous posts at previous times and you are ALWAYS negative about what Purdue and their coaching staff is doing. How can that be??????????
Our rotations are so poor, I don't understand. It's not individual defense that is really an issue, we have 2 guys running at one player, leaving guys open under the basket.
I am hoping our next assisitant coach is someone like the Belein assistant that turned Michigan's defense into a machine... Yakich I think his name was?
I am hoping our next assisitant coach is someone like the Belein assistant that turned Michigan's defense into a machine... Yakich I think his name was?
I don't believe it is a coaching issue as much as a personnel and philosophical one, but, that also does not mean that a really quality defensive coach might not help or make a difference.
Look at Penn St. for that matter...Shrewsberry is lauded for his offensive knowledge (rightfully), but, PSU is flat locking teams down...including Michigan and Wisconsin...two teams that Purdue could not have struggled more with.
Rotations are awful, but, it is compounded by really bad individual defense as well...Purdue does not have anybody capable of truly slowing, much less stopping, and opposing guard that can get to the lane or basket. Ivey is the one guy, and, he just has not done it with any consistency...he did a time or two last night. Newman could help in that regard as well potentially, and we may see that next year...but, pretty evident that it is not even a consideration at this point this year.
I wouldn't read too much into the score of an individual game. But the flaws (turnovers, overall defense) have been there for 25 games as evidenced by the metrics. For this team, when shots aren't falling... Now 0-4 when <70 points.
But take heart.. The 2018-19 Elite Eight team was 1-5 when scoring <70 points heading into the tourney and also suffered a beat down in Ann Arbor. A fluke play away from the final four against the national champs.
Wtf are you talking about. Because Im critical of some things I want us to lose?
How do people like you actually exist? I want this team to win as much or more than anyone hence why it angers me seeing such stupidity like our PnR defense.
That is not why we lost, but it certainly is something stupid that has been hurting us.
I cant stand positive paulies like you that call other fans fake because they complain about something the team does wrong or bad. Like how sad are you that you have to put others down if they dont pretend everything purdue does is perfect. Fans like you must live sad lives
Na your post history shows you want Purdue to lose and I'm not the only one that has called you on it. See those of us that actually care about Purdue has already engaged with others who understand the difference between being critical and just whining. And what is further telling is that there are multiple people calling you on it. Don't like it? Tough. You only come around when we lose and it's obvious by your post history you take great joy in us losing at that. Which is whole new level of pathetic.
You also don't complain about or are objectively critical, you whine and cry like a 5 year old that had her barbie taken away with your usual comments of 'this coaching staff is dumb'. Your own post history shows you aren't objective in the least bit so will not be treated as such. It has nothing to do with anyone being overly positive, you just simply 'yell' insults at the team or the staff.
Now just run back to peegs with the rest of your iu buddies. I suspect courtdense would be your best friend. But since you have nothing to offer above just blanket insults of the staff and team, off to ignore you go. So you can stop crying I'll leave you alone now but the others calling you out likely won't.
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His post history clearly gives him away. I give it the rest of the day before he marks it private.
LOL whatever makes you guys feel better. I dont give a **** what you think. Fact is going over every single screen no matter the situation or the player is stupid. The fact you defend it shows your low level of IU like IQ.
You have much more in common with IU fans than I do.
You have much more in common with IU fans than I do.
As for a couple posters comments that pretty much say "this is the same team as last year's that finished in the KenPom 30's, why the struggles this year?"
Essentially its -AW, +CF, right? Obviously there was some starting/minutes differences (BN to JI, TW to ZE, EH to IT now back to EH), which I felt was important to note. Here's some data:
* 2021-22 DRTG and MP% is as of 02-11-2022.
Centers: (improvement)
TW / ZE improving DRTG and similar MP %
Forwards (regression)
CF / AW big drop off in DRTG and similar MP %
MG regressed in DRTG and MP %
Guards: (severe regression)
BN statistically the best DRTG guard in 2020-21 getting substantially less time.
IT worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG big regression and similar MP %
SS 2nd worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG biggest regression and higher MP %
EH 3rd worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG big regression and losing MP %.
EM improving DRTG and MP %
JI is regressed, but not substantially.
Just commenting on each, I would say that:
- CF playing the 4 vs AW has made a big impact. Frankly, I think CF has done a good job as a freshman with what he (with center skills) has been asked to do, sometimes guarding guards.
- With IT and SS and EH, they can't stop the opposing guards dribble penetration and are not good at recovering on screen defense, which causes Purdue to start going into help defense, rotations, etc. I wouldn't mind setting a more physical tone and more energetic on defense.
- Why Sasha is getting so much time is beyond me. I would suggest less SS in favor of EM.
- I think Painter's post game Wisconsin presser is an indication of what he thinks of JI defense. JI even commented he focused on offense. I think JI can be a shutdown guard, but my opinion from the last couple weeks is that JI doesn't understand/willingly do/have the energy to do what is being asked of him. When I see him really late to get back on defense, walking up the court, not giving full effort, etc. I think he's playing too many minutes. The last 3 games before @ Michigan? 38, 37 and 36 minutes.
Purdue's defensive principles work effectively if everyone is connected. There was a sequence on a possession in the Illinois game with MG and EM that they were switching, hands up, running at guys, etc and I was really impressed! Then various other times in that same game, I see Illinois really good 3% shooters wide open and no close out, general confusion, etc. In the @Michigan game, you see guys making mistakes that are more beginning of the season mistakes and lack of hustle.
I don't think the defense will be "fixed" this year but it can be managed and improved. Purdue's three coaches all have defensive backgrounds, I'm frankly shocked that they're having as much trouble as they are and it leads me to believe it's player oriented. Will the Michigan loss opens the player's eyes and instill a sense of urgency? Time will tell.
Essentially its -AW, +CF, right? Obviously there was some starting/minutes differences (BN to JI, TW to ZE, EH to IT now back to EH), which I felt was important to note. Here's some data:
| Name | 2020-21 DRtg | 2020-21 MP | 2021-22 DRtg* | 2021-22 MP* | Delta DRtg | Delta MP % |
| TW | 96.4 | 12.4% (703) | 92.8 | 9.9% (502) | +3.6 | -2.5% |
| ZE | 96.4 | 7.3% (411) | 96.2 | 9.2% (468) | +0.2 | +1.9% |
| JI | 100.6 | 9.9% (557) | 101.5 | 14.3% (724) | -0.9 | +4.4% |
| BN | 100 | 11.7% (662) | 102.5 | 5.0% (253) | -2.5 | -6.7% |
| EM | 106.2 | 3.5% (200) | 104.3 | 7.7% (391) | +1.9 | +4.2% |
| CF & AW | 96.4 | 9.1% (512) | 104.6 | 8.8% (397) | -8.2 | -0.3% |
| MG | 103.4 | 11.0% (622) | 105.7 | 9.2% (465) | -2.3 | -1.8% |
| EH | 103.5 | 13.0% (734) | 107.3 | 11.3% (574) | -3.8 | -1.7% |
| SS | 103.8 | 13.0% (735) | 108.2 | 14.9% (755) | -4.4 | +1.9% |
| IT | 107.5 | 8.8% (497) | 110.5 | 9.4% (479) | -3.0 | +0.6% |
Centers: (improvement)
TW / ZE improving DRTG and similar MP %
Forwards (regression)
CF / AW big drop off in DRTG and similar MP %
MG regressed in DRTG and MP %
Guards: (severe regression)
BN statistically the best DRTG guard in 2020-21 getting substantially less time.
IT worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG big regression and similar MP %
SS 2nd worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG biggest regression and higher MP %
EH 3rd worst PLAYER & GUARD statistically. DRTG big regression and losing MP %.
EM improving DRTG and MP %
JI is regressed, but not substantially.
Just commenting on each, I would say that:
- CF playing the 4 vs AW has made a big impact. Frankly, I think CF has done a good job as a freshman with what he (with center skills) has been asked to do, sometimes guarding guards.
- With IT and SS and EH, they can't stop the opposing guards dribble penetration and are not good at recovering on screen defense, which causes Purdue to start going into help defense, rotations, etc. I wouldn't mind setting a more physical tone and more energetic on defense.
- Why Sasha is getting so much time is beyond me. I would suggest less SS in favor of EM.
- I think Painter's post game Wisconsin presser is an indication of what he thinks of JI defense. JI even commented he focused on offense. I think JI can be a shutdown guard, but my opinion from the last couple weeks is that JI doesn't understand/willingly do/have the energy to do what is being asked of him. When I see him really late to get back on defense, walking up the court, not giving full effort, etc. I think he's playing too many minutes. The last 3 games before @ Michigan? 38, 37 and 36 minutes.
Purdue's defensive principles work effectively if everyone is connected. There was a sequence on a possession in the Illinois game with MG and EM that they were switching, hands up, running at guys, etc and I was really impressed! Then various other times in that same game, I see Illinois really good 3% shooters wide open and no close out, general confusion, etc. In the @Michigan game, you see guys making mistakes that are more beginning of the season mistakes and lack of hustle.
I don't think the defense will be "fixed" this year but it can be managed and improved. Purdue's three coaches all have defensive backgrounds, I'm frankly shocked that they're having as much trouble as they are and it leads me to believe it's player oriented. Will the Michigan loss opens the player's eyes and instill a sense of urgency? Time will tell.
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