Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan St. are in right now! Ohio State, who I think is going to fold, is currently 5th in the conference with a Net of 46, 12 of its current 13 wins are Quad 3 & 4 and has SOS of 155 on Bracketolgists. They have already lost to IU, Michigan and Penn St.. Their best win in Conference is Minnesota at home? Iowa, the 6th rated Net of 49, has played a tough schedule, but 0-6 in Quad 1 games, but has a Quad 3 loss at home to Michigan. At 11-7 and 2 home losses, can't afford to have any more bad losses! Nebraska 7th in the Net, might have the best chance if they can hold serve at home, but can they win any road games(0-4BT)? Their Out-of-conf SOS is 321, OUCH! Northwestern is 8th in the Net at 78, but has a Quad 4 loss! Ouch! The problem with the Big Ten is you have about 4 teams that are consider as Quad 1 wins, so it will be real hard for these bubble teams to find quality wins. Ohio St. has to pick a win up at home against either Illinois or Purdue, but does not play either on the road, They already have been pounded at home bye Wisconsin and still have to play their. Iowa has to beat Illinois or Wisconsin at home, or Illinois on the road. Nebraska has to beat Wisconsin at home, but can they win on the road? Northwestern has to beat Illinois at home, or try to steal one at Purdue! When was the last time only 4 teams from the BT made the tournament?
Could only 4 Big Ten teams make the NCAA Tournament?
- Thread starter rsomm
- Start date
More than 4 will make it, but that doesn't mean they should.
We still have to have 68 teams in the tournament. Nebraska and Northwestern will absolutely be in the discussion. They each have 2 Q1 wins besides Purdue. I wouldn't call Michigan State a lock by any means right now.
My take:
Purdue, ILL, Wisconsin - locks barring collapse
Michigan State, Ohio State - looking decent, have to keep racking up wins
Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa - decent chance but more work to do
Maryland, Rutgers, Indinia - a lot of work to do, but talented teams that are capable of making noise in the BTT
Minnesota - playing better than expected but very weak resume, so quite the longshot
Michigan, Penn State - no chance
My take:
Purdue, ILL, Wisconsin - locks barring collapse
Michigan State, Ohio State - looking decent, have to keep racking up wins
Northwestern, Nebraska, Iowa - decent chance but more work to do
Maryland, Rutgers, Indinia - a lot of work to do, but talented teams that are capable of making noise in the BTT
Minnesota - playing better than expected but very weak resume, so quite the longshot
Michigan, Penn State - no chance
I'd say it differently, at this point only four would be expected to make it past the first round. The rest are probably a qualified as anyone else to fill those 68 slots but we shouldn't be surprised to see them lose in the first round and would be overperforming to make it pas the second.
Interesting to note the the Big East is in a fairly similar situation with three teams in the top 17 in NET, three from 38 to 43 and three from 58 to 66.
I agree that more than 4 will make it. Barring a collapse, these teams should be in...
LOCK (3)
LOCK (3)
- PUR
- WIS
- ILL
- NWU
- MSU
- NEB
- OSU
- IOWA
- IU
- MIN
- MAR
- PSU
- RUT
- UM
That's obviously fine, but on what are you basing that opinion? B10 currently has teams 5-7 ranked 46th through 56th in NET, which is the definition of bubble.
Are you saying you think those rankings will drop? If not, who what type of team do you think 'deserves' to take those spots?
B1G will always have several teams in that range, so do other power conferences. If you just go by NET, then yes, B1G teams will fill slots in the range and as I said twice now, the B1G will get more than 4 teams in.
Last edited:
Remember that the actual NET ranking isn't of that much importance. What's more important is your record against the Quads. Obviously it's going to be similar teams though.
If the actual NET ranking was that indicative of strength when it comes to making the tournament and seeding, then Purdue would have been #1 every day since it came out. By a lot.
Purdue and Wisconsin are locks.
Illinois is heading the wrong way but should be OK, has a Quad 3 lose to Maryland and nearly lost to IU at home! Might have the toughest schedule left in conference.
Michigan St is probably in with their strength of schedule, but can't lose at home!
Iowa to me is a big question mark, not sure how their Net is 5 best in BT? 0 Quad 1 wins, 2 Quad 3 losses! Have to win against IU on the road and Wisconsin at home (must wins)!
Northwestern has a Net of 59(bubble zone), can not lose to a bottom feeder! Allready a l bad Quad 4 loss! Plus a horrible Out of conference of 322! But the best bet to be the 5th team out of BT!
Nebraska has a Net of 60(bubble zone), can't lose at home and have to try and pick up a couple wins on the road, where they have been throttled (0-5)! Three of the five road games are winnable, but if they lose, their Net will plummet!
Ohio State has imploded, out, will lose a couple more at home and be zip on the road! Lost to IU?
Still a long way to go, and remember (referencing your Iowa point), a team's own NET isn't as important as the team's record against the Quads. Meaning wins against Iowa are better than Iowa's own standing actually is.
Illinois may have nearly lost to IU, but they didn't actually lose to IU. Barring a collapse, they're a lock, and probably a 4-5 seed currently.
Ohio State certainly didn't do themselves any favors this week. Seems like the same old song and dance from them. I think Holtmann is a good coach, but might not be able to survive missing the dance.
Ohio State is done! Iowa losing to IU pretty much cooks their books even if the computer metrics like them. They already have 3 home losses! Is Nebraska next? They need to beat Wisconsin at home, but can they win on the road?
A few games left for some Big teams to get in with a W against a Wisc, Purdue and Ill. team. The conference on the whole desires that. Large alumni base and money with Big teams could help in those close calls as well as far as getting in.
If the NET is accurate for a single game which history has shown that the fav doesn't always win, a Big team might play a typical game and still advance. I think I prefer a Big Ten whistle over a Big East whistle or God knows some other view of the game Purdue hasn't seen. You hope however, the refs are assigned that they have worked together a few times this year because there will be a mix and match of the "usuals, more typical" in a given conference with "usuals" outside a given conference.
That's what I keep thinking. The B1G will get 6 or more teams, even if they don't deserve it by our usual standards. As someone on the B1G Network said this week, are there 60 teams better than Northwestern?
Right now Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Northwestern are firmly in. Michigan State and Nebraska firmly on the bubble. Big Ten super sucked in the non conference and that will hurt them. Will be lucky to get 6 teams in. Especially with how much better the Big 12 and SEC are compared to the Big Ten. Mountain West will also get 4-5 in.
Big game on Sunday, on ESPN2. Drake at Terre Haute. Unless either of them falter finishing the season and Con Tournament, I agree that they both get in the dance.
Last edited:
Maryland is going to be an interesting one. They have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. Maryland (like most of the middling Big Ten teams) are much better at home than on the road.
@MSU
Rut
@OSU
IA
ILL
@WISC
@Rut
NW
IU
@PSU
I could see them dropping the @MSU, @Wisc, and maybe the @Rut, but winning the other 7 is possible. That would put them at 20-11 (12-8) with 3 or 4 Quad 1 wins (depending if OSU can hold on to a top 75 NET ranking, currently at 73). That would definitely get Maryland on the bubble.
@MSU
Rut
@OSU
IA
ILL
@WISC
@Rut
NW
IU
@PSU
I could see them dropping the @MSU, @Wisc, and maybe the @Rut, but winning the other 7 is possible. That would put them at 20-11 (12-8) with 3 or 4 Quad 1 wins (depending if OSU can hold on to a top 75 NET ranking, currently at 73). That would definitely get Maryland on the bubble.
I wouldn't even consider Indiana State and Drake getting in as a steal. It took a ton of home cooking for MSU to beat ISU. MSU was in bonus for 90% of the game pretty sure.
Indiana State is that 12 seed a 5 seed has nightmares about.
Agree completely. Watched them in Indy before our game and was impressed and have watched them 2 times since and came away saying that is a fun team to watch. Bilas mentioned them on game day this past week too.
Heck, they are exactly the type of team that could beat Purdue. If you look at the two losses (NW, Neb), there is one distinct stat that pops out: 3 point percentage. NW shot 50% on 10 made 3's. Neb shot 61% on 14 made threes.
ISU leads the nation at 41% 3-pt shooting and averages 21 attempts per game. They shot 40% @ MSU (14 of 35) and 38% @Alabama (10 of 26). They scored 75 points against MSU and 80 against Alabama.
If Purdue faced them and had an off-night shooting-wise, they could absolutely have the type of game to win an upset.
ISU leads the nation at 41% 3-pt shooting and averages 21 attempts per game. They shot 40% @ MSU (14 of 35) and 38% @Alabama (10 of 26). They scored 75 points against MSU and 80 against Alabama.
If Purdue faced them and had an off-night shooting-wise, they could absolutely have the type of game to win an upset.
But then again the Pac12 and ACC will likely get less bids than usual, especially the Pac12. They may only get 2 as it stands today.
Obviously there's a long way to go, but right now I'd set the O/U at 6.5 for the B1G and I'd likely bet the over.
Currently with 86 brackets on the Matrix, 85 have Indiana State in, and 2 have Drake in.
If Indiana St. wins the Missouri Valley tournament and regular season, they are probably closer to a 7 seed than a 12. They are 24th in net
But unfortunately, they are still unlikely to be a 7 seed. FAU was 13th in the NET last year and was given a 9 seed. Utah State was 18th in the NET and got a 10 seed. Boise State was 29th in the NET and got a 10 seed.
I'd guess Indiana State's seed ceiling is closer to a 9 and more likely a 10 in your scenario.
They are a 12 in the Bracket Matrix today. Remember that a team's NET ranking isn't as important as their record against the Quads.
7 teams? Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Nebraska, Michigan State and? Michigan State still has work to do. They only get credit for losing to good teams. Because we are in a day and age where you get praised for losing.
As I noted above, Maryland. After seeing Rutgers only score 46 at home vs. PSU, I no longer think that Maryland will drop that one. So they could reasonably be 21-10 (13-7) going into the BTT. Their biggest problem was some really bad non-con losses that is killing their NET ranking (79 currently). Their Kenpom is better at 52.
So they have work to do, but I could see them pulling it off.
Maryland is on the wrong side of the bubble! Northwestern and Nebraska are both borderline, with great home wins, both have bad losses, struggle on the road and very weak Non conference schedules. Both are heading for 11 or 12 losses! They will be sweating on selection day!
Maryland really needed the W in East Lansing yesterday. Huge opportunity lost, imho.
Nebraska needs some road wins.....NW did themselves no favors letting that win get away in Minneapolis, although it's not a terrible loss. The wins over Purdue will still help both of them.
I still think it will be six when all is said and done, but who those are after Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois......I would just be speculating at this point.
68 teams have to make the tournament.
You're right and the B1G will probably get 6. We can debate whether we think we should get that many, but you're right you have to fill the field with 68
As of this morning, "Bracketologists" has only 4 Big Ten teams in with Nebraska in the first four out! Both Nebraska and Northwestern are predicated to go 11-9 in conference play. The problem is not the quality wins they have had at home, it will be the bad losses up coming!
RPI has our boilers going 18-2, Wisconsin 15-5 and Illinois going 14-6 in conference play!
Similar threads
