Are we favored to win the B1G next year?
- Thread starter dumpsterFyre
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I am always suspecious of any forecast that depends on freshmen making a huge impact. Especially when we talk about replacinig a senior leader like Valentine. Replacing Valentine will be difficult. Izzo doesn't usually get one-and-done players. I would expect MSU to continue to be very good next year, but it will take this good freshman class time to mature in Izzo's system.
You can pretty well track MSU's 4 year cycles. If you consider this year a peak, then I would expect them to cycle back up in 2019 or 2020. I am not saying they won't be competative, I am just saying that the BIG championship and a FF appearance might not be in the cards for the next 2 years. After that, this most recent class will make them favorites.
The CFSS column is just conference games:
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/7
Is it considering losing players when they've combined for 11 minutes played in 2016? LeVert played 11 minutes vs Purdue after rebreaking a bone in his foot in the Big Ten opener. Albrecht was ruled out for the season in December.
Michigan has zero seniors and adds 4 freshmen next season, including potential stud PG Xavier Simpson. If you assume returning players (particularly underclassmen) get a little better, Michigan should take a significant step forward next season.
Well Izzo did replace seniors Branden Dawson and Travis Trice from last season, and while it was difficult they same to be doing just fine.
As for next season, Izzo might not usually have one and dones, but he's got quite a few coming next year. More of a Kentucky or Duke type recruiting class than what he usually brings in so it would not be surprising if they had a great year. They might even start as preseason #1 if they get Jackson.
I agree that UM will be better. Heck, they were pretty good this year, just inconsistent at times. I like Xavier's game, as long as he does not adopt the RJ approach to sausing up his game at the expense of the team.
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I am always suspecious of any forecast that depends on freshmen making a huge impact. Especially when we talk about replacinig a senior leader like Valentine. Replacing Valentine will be difficult. Izzo doesn't usually get one-and-done players. I would expect MSU to continue to be very good next year, but it will take this good freshman class time to mature in Izzo's system.
You can pretty well track MSU's 4 year cycles. If you consider this year a peak, then I would expect them to cycle back up in 2019 or 2020. I am not saying they won't be competative, I am just saying that the BIG championship and a FF appearance might not be in the cards for the next 2 years. After that, this most recent class will make them favorites.
MSU's 2016 recruiting class is a clear outlier though. It's not suspicious to expect one and done wings to make an immediate impact. 2016 is far from the norm for MSU. Izzo has never brought in this caliber of talent all in one class. I mean we're talking two OR three 5 star McDAA's and two more top 40 4 stars with Cassius Winston being invited to play in the Jordan Brand Classic. And I say two or three because there are quite a few rumors out there that Jackson is a silent verbal but is waiting until the end of the tournament to commit to give Izzo a little time to work on the scholarships situation.
Right now, MSU has no more scholarships to hand out but Izzo is recruiting Jackson as hard as ever so he clearly knows something that everyone else doesn't. What we do know is that Jackson is the best talent to come out of the state of Michigan since probably Chris Webber.
QUOTE="blockm2, post: 898440, member: 8422"]Well Izzo did replace seniors Branden Dawson and Travis Trice from last season, and while it was difficult they same to be doing just fine.
As for next season, Izzo might not usually have one and dones, but he's got quite a few coming next year. More of a Kentucky or Duke type recruiting class than what he usually brings in so it would not be surprising if they had a great year. They might even start as preseason #1 if they get Jackson.[/QUOTE]
You are probably right. I just hesitate jumping on the MSU-is-great wagon.
See UK 2016. Skal was supposewd to be the all-everything player. Well.....
See 2016 Duke. NC last year. Brought in excellent class and was close to a #1 at the start of the season. Well....
You just don't know how these freshman stars will blend togehter, nor how good they actually are. There are lots of 4 & 5 star high school players that are riding benches. Of course, lots of examples of the oppposite too, so I will give you that. I just apply some caution to the mix.
As for next season, Izzo might not usually have one and dones, but he's got quite a few coming next year. More of a Kentucky or Duke type recruiting class than what he usually brings in so it would not be surprising if they had a great year. They might even start as preseason #1 if they get Jackson.[/QUOTE]
You are probably right. I just hesitate jumping on the MSU-is-great wagon.
See UK 2016. Skal was supposewd to be the all-everything player. Well.....
See 2016 Duke. NC last year. Brought in excellent class and was close to a #1 at the start of the season. Well....
You just don't know how these freshman stars will blend togehter, nor how good they actually are. There are lots of 4 & 5 star high school players that are riding benches. Of course, lots of examples of the oppposite too, so I will give you that. I just apply some caution to the mix.
Izzo's best teams are led by guys who have been around 4 years. I'm. It sure a class of one and dones is the answer at MSU.
I would imagine if you asked Cleaves and Valentine et al. They would say as freshmen they probably didn't love and respect Izzo the way they did as seniors. So I'm not sure we will see the results the MSU fans are predicting.
I would imagine if you asked Cleaves and Valentine et al. They would say as freshmen they probably didn't love and respect Izzo the way they did as seniors. So I'm not sure we will see the results the MSU fans are predicting.
What I have seen and that is just a few games I like OG. Seems solid, plays within himself and a legit 4 skill. Not sure he can dribble or shoot the perimeter, but again I haven't watched them enough to know for certain
MSU favored to win the Big Ten in 2016-2017
Purdue is next
Maryland reloads
Michigan
Ohio State
Iowa
Indiana
Wisconsin
and the rest are nobodys and no one cares
Purdue is next
Maryland reloads
Michigan
Ohio State
Iowa
Indiana
Wisconsin
and the rest are nobodys and no one cares
True, which is why my original post mentioned that losing LeVert might not be that much of a change.
It really depends. I'm not sure what happened to Michigan this year. They were getting some preseason love, with many experts having them in the top 25 to 30 range. Then they lost those early games (even with LeVert) and everybody kinda just forgot about them.
Their weakness this year was front court depth, and they are addressing that with two recruits who are 6'-10". Outside of Simpson (ranked 50's to 70's) though, their recruits are in the 150+ range. Not sure if they are going to have an impact until 2017.
I think they'll be better, but I don't think they will be better enough to vault up into the top 3 in the conference unless they are given the Wisconsin / IU schedule treatment.
I can see this as possible, however, I would have put Wisconsin higher. Maybe just below Michigan. I don't think i would have put Maryland as 3rd. My list:
MSU - tie
Purdue - tie
Michigan
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Maryland
Iowa
Indiana
Valentine also just wasn't very good as a freshman. It isn't "love and respect". It's that he was the 15th rated SG in his class and nowhere close to ready to make an impact at a high level. Next year Izzo will have freshmen that are much more ready to be impact players right away.
I'm remembering an article from the fall when MSU had a bunch of recruits and commits in town as well as the current team and a few former Spartan players. They were having an open gym and Denzel Valentine said that Miles Bridges might have been the best player in the gym.
Hyperbole? Who knows but it's high praise no doubt.
I think you missed the point. Several new pieces that are expected to be one and done may have an issue with adjusting to how tough it is to play for Izzo. So expecting several of them to just gel and take MSU far is a reach for me. The best MSU teams are when they have several guys who have had 4 years of izzo's influence.
Now perhaps he is getting to the point that he is ready to just throw the ball out there and let these stars shine. I won't hold my breathe waiting for that however.
If they are Kentucky like recruits they may get their more quickly than two years but even Cals best have needed 3/4 of a season to reach full strength. Formidable either way.I am always suspecious of any forecast that depends on freshmen making a huge impact. Especially when we talk about replacinig a senior leader like Valentine. Replacing Valentine will be difficult. Izzo doesn't usually get one-and-done players. I would expect MSU to continue to be very good next year, but it will take this good freshman class time to mature in Izzo's system.
You can pretty well track MSU's 4 year cycles. If you consider this year a peak, then I would expect them to cycle back up in 2019 or 2020. I am not saying they won't be competative, I am just saying that the BIG championship and a FF appearance might not be in the cards for the next 2 years. After that, this most recent class will make them favorites.
I think you miss the point. Izzo has done well at times with older players because those players just weren't that good early in their career and improved over time. Next year he'll easily have the most talented freshman class he has ever had.
It's talent.
If its just talent. Then why would they need Izzo?
I think you're mistaken. The Izzo factor is just that. He's a very good coach who makes good players great over their careers. Name a team under him that was led by a one and done or even multiple one and dones.
The BIG is a talented leugue from top to bottom. Almost any of the top 10 teams are so close in talent and playing skills that "upsets" happen every week. The margin between, say the 1/2 slots and the 5/6 slots is paper thin. One or two freshman-type mistakes this year, and the MSU team would have been looking at a 6th or 7th place finish instead of a 2nd or 3rd place. You put a young talented team on the floor in the BIG, and you are asking for some brutal lessons from older, more experienced teams.
For example, without Valentine, MSU probably drops to 5th place in the BIG, if they were lucky. He made great plays, and he made them consistently. Put a freshman in his place, and you lose 2-3 more games. It is that simple. I don't care how talented the freshman is, he will make mistakes. MSU will win or lose the BIG based on the underclass kids now on the team, and not their freshman class.
I am not saying the freshmen won't make an impact. I am saying that the consistent, solid play of the team will be driven by this year's Juniors, Sophmores and Freshmen. The loss of Forbes, Costelo, Wolman (?) and primarily Valentine is significant, but they do have good kids behind them.
For example, without Valentine, MSU probably drops to 5th place in the BIG, if they were lucky. He made great plays, and he made them consistently. Put a freshman in his place, and you lose 2-3 more games. It is that simple. I don't care how talented the freshman is, he will make mistakes. MSU will win or lose the BIG based on the underclass kids now on the team, and not their freshman class.
I am not saying the freshmen won't make an impact. I am saying that the consistent, solid play of the team will be driven by this year's Juniors, Sophmores and Freshmen. The loss of Forbes, Costelo, Wolman (?) and primarily Valentine is significant, but they do have good kids behind them.
The reason I believe that MSU is going to be in the top 3 of the league is more because of the guys that you aren't talking about. Davis, McQuaid, Nairn Jr., Ellis are all 4-star level guys that are going to be juniors and seniors. So even if the supposedly massively talented freshman class needs time to gel, there is still a large amount of talent and experience already sitting on the bench.
I don't like MSU, but I will give them credit for creating a "next man up" environment.
I don't like MSU, but I will give them credit for creating a "next man up" environment.
the fact he hasn't had the kind of talent he will next year isn't evidence of anything except he hasn't had the kind of talent.
Plenty of young teams have done well in the Big Ten. Michigan won the conference by 3 games 2 years ago with a bunch 4 sophomores, 2 freshman, and only 1 senior playing most of the minutes.
Talent trumps experience in college hoops.
Yeah you are making stuff up now. Once again. A group of one and dones may make them great. But his best team are those that are led by players who have been taught and toughened by him over four years.
As one and dones, this group very likely won't have the toughness and decision making abilty that his seniors seem to acquire. That's what makes his teams good.
They may help the team. But to think guys who spend less then 12 months in that system to be unbeatable, as some folks what us to believe, is doubtful as there is no historical evidence that backs it up. Can it happen? Sure. But the last 30 years has shown us he wins with guys he can mold over a long period and never with guys who are in and out the door.
Agreed because without the end of the year heroics of Senior Trice, they never sniff the final four.
It hasn't happened because he's come in 2nd a lot when recruiting one and done type talent like Jabari, or Tyus Jones, or Cliff Alexander. So he's never had this kind of talent before, since I guess Zach Randolph. It'll be an interesting experiment to see if Izzo can adjust his style to succeed with Kentucky type youth and talent. Only time will tell.
I think a lot will depend on the maturity level of these freshmen. The fact that a lot of these kids have been great friends since grade school, I think that will help expedite chemistry and cohesion.
Right. I'm not saying it can't be done. But the formula he has used so far has been to take good players and make them great over a period of four years.
People have said Valentine wasn't good as a frosh. Well that's my point. Izzo helped make him a star but it took four years. That's what Izzo does.
I think it takes time to understand his system and to gain the toughness that makes his teams good. I'm not sure he should change that.
UK had a monster team last war that played very well together. But when a team of good veteran players came along, UK went home.
As for the OP since I haven't exactly been on topic. We should be one of the top 4 teams going into the year. I am very happy with the talent and experience we have coming back. But it's likely a monster class going to other schools could keep us from being favored. But I like our chances once the games begin.
But we're talking about the addition of Jabari Parker and Justise Winslow type talent. That's different talent than your "normal" freshmen. Didnt Duke win a National Title under the leadership and play of those two frosh, and Tyus?
the fact Izzo has incoming freshmen talent unlike any he's had before isn't "making stuff up", it's stating a fact. Whether you like it or not is a different story.
Also, did anyone say MSU would be "unbeatable"???!?!?!?
Izzo's past history of winning with guys that are there for a long period is not relevant to a situation where he has multiple 1 and done freshmen. He's never had it before. Just because he hasn't had it isn't evidence that it can't or won't work. Absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence so to say.
On a side note, I hope MSU finishes in last place next year.
No, UK sent home plenty of teams with "good veteran players". They got beat when they faced a mega talented veteran team that was one of the best teams in the last decade of college hoops. They didn't lose because Wisconsin had veterans, they lost because Wisconsin had the NPOY, another top 20 pick, and several other potential future pros and played an outstanding game.
A mega talented veteran team who, once again had future pros who were four year players and a NPOY who came into the league unheralded.
Starting to see a pattern yet?
Although I am not sold on Izzo being completely clean, I do respect the man for what he has done on the court. It's hard to see that type of production in today's game and not have some amount of admiration for him, on some level. I am interested to see how his style of coaching, which others have pointed out, seems to be geared toward building a team carried by 3 or 4 year guys with quality or high quality underclassman in a supporting role to one where the freshman will obviously carry the team. If he can take them to the Elite 8 or a Final Four next season, it would be very impressive. Lots of coaches can't adapt their style like that on the fly, as you saw with Bruce Weber at Illinois.
IMO, Calipari also could/should have deferred more to Ulis rather than Harrison(s), but that's another issue.
No. MSU then everyone else. Will Stone and Trimble leave Maryland? With Hayes leave Wisc? Will williams and bryant leave? Will Swanigan leave? Will Haas? Really won't know the landscape until after the draft, such a weak draft some players might jump when not expected to. I'd be a little concerned if i was a Purdue fan losing Hammons/Davis/Hill and possibly stephens though edwards coming in should help. Thompson turning into a solid PG, will Haas be able to stay out of foul trouble without hammons there to help? 2 more spots open so will be interested to see.
yep, and the team that beat them was stacked with freshmen like Tyus Jones and Jahlil Okafor and Grayson Allen and Justise Winslow. Starting to see a pattern yet?
Listen, I'm not arguing that you wouldn't rather have players that are seniors instead of freshman. But you'd rather have a top 5 pick 1 and done freshman than a senior that is a borderline 1st round pick. In the end it's the talent that matters, not the experience. Wisconsin was the first Big Ten champ in 3 years to start > 1 senior. 4 years ago IU had 2 senior starters as conference champ (Hulls and Watford).
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