Welcome to the third year, sixth edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Iowa Hawkeyes.
Week 5 RECAP:
The Column goes 0-3 for the second time this year as the Boilers fail to cover -2.5, the total goes under, and Michigan blows out Wisconsin. Purdue offense once again failed to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns. For what it is worth, I did take Wisconsin against Illinois during the Boiler’s bye week so I have the closure I need going forward to quit putting the Badgers in the column.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-3 ATS, Overs are 0-5.
Iowa: 4-1 ATS, Overs are 2-3. Iowa has been incredibly impressive in the win loss column, evidenced by their #2 ranking, but almost equally impressive ATS. The only failure to cover by the Hawkeyes came during their 24-14 win over Colorado State as 23.5 point favorites. They covered against Iowa State by 6, Kent State by a half point, Maryland by too many to count, and Penn State by a half point.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/15/21:
Current spread: Purdue +11.5(Opened +14.5),
1H Spread: Purdue +7, O/U 22
Over/Under: 43 (Opened 43.5)
Bets: 39% on Purdue, 50% on over
Money: 45% on Purdue, 93% on over
Iowa O/U: 26.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
Purdue O/U: 16.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
Jeff Brohm vs. Iowa: 3-1, 4-0 ATS.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week. I am keeping Purdue’s odds at the start of the season for comparison purposes.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -135. Going into the Iowa game, Purdue’s odds are at 150/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. I do not see a book offering on this line anymore, but have to imagine with Iowa beating Penn State, they are a virtual lock.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Georgia has become the new favorite at +130, while Purdue is no longer listed.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. The Boilers are still in an ok spot to at least push on five. They need two wins from the remaining schedule, which can reasonably be expected from Northwestern and IU. If they can steal one from Iowa, Wisconsin, OSU, or MSU it would make a world of difference. Make no doubt about it, for anyone holding the over, the Minnesota loss was an absolute shot to the groin.
Note: While Purdue does not have any player with Heisman odds, I have started seeing GK’s name mentioned regarding first overall pick odds. He is listed at 60/1. Very clearly still a longshot, but cool to see him listed nonetheless.
Trend Analysis for Iowa (My database only goes back to 2003, so all Coach Ferentz trends will be since 2003):
· Purdue under Brohm is 6-2 ATS as an away underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative has not cashed twice in a row with Purdue failing to cover against Minnesota and Illinois. However, Purdue is 0-1 ATS as an away underdog this year.
· Purdue is 5-3 ATS after a bye under Brohm. This is not a huge surprise as Brohm has a tendency to prepare well with the time off. Brohm has failed to cover in this spot his last two tries, with the Boilers failing to cover against Northwestern last year and Minnesota the year prior.
· Purdue is now 0-7 ATS in its last 7 conference games. Purdue has not covered against a Big Ten opponent since Iowa to open the season in 2020.
· Purdue is 5-0 ATS in their last five games at Iowa.
· After a bye week, the over is 5-3 in Purdue games under Brohm. On average, this spot has covered by 5.4 points. Something to keep in mind, Overs in Bowl Games are technically included in this count. Purdue Overs are 2-0 in bowl games, which slightly skews the record.
· When Purdue is an away underdog, the over is 1-7. The under hit this year when Purdue went to South Bend.
· When Purdue is against a ranked opponent, the over is 3-8.
· As a home favorite, Iowa is 49-48 under Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes cover in this spot by an average of 1.7 points, but win the game on average by 15.1 points.
· Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
· After an Iowa win under Ferentz, Iowa is 73-66-2 ATS. Iowa has won these games on average by 7.7 points and has covered by 2.3 points.
· Under Coach Ferentz, overs are 43-46-3 when Iowa is a home favorite. In 2021, overs are 1-3 when Iowa is the home favorite. These have missed by an average of 6.9 points.
· The over is 66-70-3 under Ferentz after a win by the Hawkeyes. The under has hit in these games by an average of 1.7 points.
· The under has hit in 5 of Iowa’s last 6 games against Big Ten West opponents.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· October 20, 2018. Every Purdue fan should remember that day. The biggest win in Brohm’s tenure at Purdue as the Boilers smacked Ohio State by 29 points with Tyler Trent in attendance. Ohio State was #2 in that game, just as Iowa is Saturday. Many Purdue fans, myself included, are drawing comparisons between the games. This has garnered some Purdue ML plays from even non-Purdue fans. My concern here is Iowa will be on their toes due to the O$U game.
· Let Down City. This will be more heavily discussed in the situational analysis, but this is a massive let down spot for Iowa. Late October is notorious for catching some higher ranked teams asleep. Iowa is coming off their biggest win of the season coming back from 14 points down to beat a Clifford-less Penn State team. If Clifford stays healthy does Iowa win? I do not think so. But as someone who was holding an Iowa -2.5 ticket last week, thank you Hawkeyes. Unfortunately, Iowa is on bye next week, so there is not much of a look ahead. But, the Penn State comeback may be enough to catch the Hawkeyes nappin this Saturday.
· Indiana Boys suiting up. Iowa has four listed players from Indiana. Justin Britt is the most notable, having been teammates with David Bell at Warren. I am so scarred from Gary Harris, that I always assume Indiana guys playing against Purdue are going to have career games, so something to look for.
· Injuries. Cory Trice and the two WRs being done for the year stinks. All three looked extremely promising this year and I was pleased with the continual progression. It does seem, however, Purdue will be getting Payne Durham back and some other guys which should help the offense.
· Revenge, maybe? Kirk Ferentz knows Purdue has owned Iowa. Iowa looked relatively good last year after the loss to Purdue, but I wonder if the Iowa team remembers the loss and has heard the noise about Purdue.
· Weather once looks good. No rain, which normally is the bat signal to fade Brohm.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: We have a large sample size of bets placed so I finally feel like we can truly use numbers as a barometer for gambling here. Purdue is currently maintaining a 6% sharp differential, with 6% more of the money on Purdue than bets on Purdue. The money is fairly split, but Iowa having 61% of the bets on them but less than 60% of the money would be concerning if I am an Iowa bettor. Additionally, outside initial day moves, the line has held relatively steady at 11.5. Iowa money is coming in and the line has held firm. A majority of bets are on the under while a majority of money (NOW 67% under and 60% money on over) is on the over. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Trends: This is very similar to Notre Dame. Traditionally speaking, this is the ideal spot to bet Jeff Brohm. He is an underdog, on the road, against a ranked team. That is the holy trinity of Brohm trends. With that being said, Iowa has been an absolute wagon against the spread this year. They have done just enough to cover in all the games they play, in large thanks to the turnovers created by their defense. For the total, Purdue has yet to play in a game that has gone over this season. The Boilers defense has been great, but the larger concern is the point production from the offense. Iowa loves their defense too, so the trend would tell me under. EDGE: Purdue, Under.
Situation: Quite different paths have been taken by these two teams since their last meeting. Iowa has been on a mission and has won almost every game they have played since the loss to the Boilers. Purdue has struggled immensely in the redzone and is coming off a loss to Minnesota and a bye. Iowa just beat a top 5 team on national television in front of the nation. I think the average CFB bettor would tell you 11.5 is way too small and to take Iowa. This is a fantastic situational spot for Purdue. This is a letdown spot for Iowa after a big, emotional win. I would expect Iowa to come out a little flat early with a Penn State hangover. Purdue should be fresh, healthy and prepared after a week off and a bad taste in their mouth from Minnesota. Both teams’ defenses have been outstanding, and the Boilers offense has developed a reputation to not score. Purdue has had an extra week to work on the redzone offense, and I believe Purdue’s struggles have inflated this line on the under side, so situationally, the edge is to the over. EDGE: Purdue and the Over.
Total Analysis: This is the Jeff Brohm play. All gambling indicators point to Purdue. Brohm has absolutely thrived in these underdog spots and this game has the similar feel to 2018 Ohio State. Iowa is a team that does not turn the ball over and capitalizes on mistakes. Purdue is a team that makes too many mistakes as is. I am putting a lot of faith in the bye week. Brohm has traditionally shown the aptitude to thrive with the extra week of prep, and I expect a gameplan to force Iowa’s offense to score points. Turnovers and redzone efficiency will tell the tale of this game. My sole public concern is that Purdue ML has become quite the popular pick. The more under the radar Purdue flys here the better. I believe the hangover let down spot presents a great opportunity for the Boilers to come in and hit the Hawkeyes in the mouth early.
Prediction: 24-21 Hawkeyes. The column has been awful, I may recommend fading, but I like Purdue to cover and the over. An under has to hit at some point, and the Hawkeyes are in an awful situational spot here getting a fresh Purdue team in late October. I expect Brohm to open the call sheet up, try to feed David Bell, and put up some points.
Official Plays (3-8 on Season): Purdue +11.5, Over 43. Sprinkle on Purdue ML +420.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-4): Ok St. +3.5. The Pokes are on the road at Texas and only a 3.5 point underdog. I like Ok. St. moneyline here a lot.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against Iowa meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or Iowa +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the Iowa spread, the Hawkeyes would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Iowa by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Iowa has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Iowa Hawkeyes.
Week 5 RECAP:
The Column goes 0-3 for the second time this year as the Boilers fail to cover -2.5, the total goes under, and Michigan blows out Wisconsin. Purdue offense once again failed to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns. For what it is worth, I did take Wisconsin against Illinois during the Boiler’s bye week so I have the closure I need going forward to quit putting the Badgers in the column.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-3 ATS, Overs are 0-5.
Iowa: 4-1 ATS, Overs are 2-3. Iowa has been incredibly impressive in the win loss column, evidenced by their #2 ranking, but almost equally impressive ATS. The only failure to cover by the Hawkeyes came during their 24-14 win over Colorado State as 23.5 point favorites. They covered against Iowa State by 6, Kent State by a half point, Maryland by too many to count, and Penn State by a half point.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/15/21:
Current spread: Purdue +11.5(Opened +14.5),
1H Spread: Purdue +7, O/U 22
Over/Under: 43 (Opened 43.5)
Bets: 39% on Purdue, 50% on over
Money: 45% on Purdue, 93% on over
Iowa O/U: 26.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
Purdue O/U: 16.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
Jeff Brohm vs. Iowa: 3-1, 4-0 ATS.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week. I am keeping Purdue’s odds at the start of the season for comparison purposes.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -135. Going into the Iowa game, Purdue’s odds are at 150/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. I do not see a book offering on this line anymore, but have to imagine with Iowa beating Penn State, they are a virtual lock.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Georgia has become the new favorite at +130, while Purdue is no longer listed.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. The Boilers are still in an ok spot to at least push on five. They need two wins from the remaining schedule, which can reasonably be expected from Northwestern and IU. If they can steal one from Iowa, Wisconsin, OSU, or MSU it would make a world of difference. Make no doubt about it, for anyone holding the over, the Minnesota loss was an absolute shot to the groin.
Note: While Purdue does not have any player with Heisman odds, I have started seeing GK’s name mentioned regarding first overall pick odds. He is listed at 60/1. Very clearly still a longshot, but cool to see him listed nonetheless.
Trend Analysis for Iowa (My database only goes back to 2003, so all Coach Ferentz trends will be since 2003):
· Purdue under Brohm is 6-2 ATS as an away underdog. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative has not cashed twice in a row with Purdue failing to cover against Minnesota and Illinois. However, Purdue is 0-1 ATS as an away underdog this year.
· Purdue is 5-3 ATS after a bye under Brohm. This is not a huge surprise as Brohm has a tendency to prepare well with the time off. Brohm has failed to cover in this spot his last two tries, with the Boilers failing to cover against Northwestern last year and Minnesota the year prior.
· Purdue is now 0-7 ATS in its last 7 conference games. Purdue has not covered against a Big Ten opponent since Iowa to open the season in 2020.
· Purdue is 5-0 ATS in their last five games at Iowa.
· After a bye week, the over is 5-3 in Purdue games under Brohm. On average, this spot has covered by 5.4 points. Something to keep in mind, Overs in Bowl Games are technically included in this count. Purdue Overs are 2-0 in bowl games, which slightly skews the record.
· When Purdue is an away underdog, the over is 1-7. The under hit this year when Purdue went to South Bend.
· When Purdue is against a ranked opponent, the over is 3-8.
· As a home favorite, Iowa is 49-48 under Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes cover in this spot by an average of 1.7 points, but win the game on average by 15.1 points.
· Iowa is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games.
· After an Iowa win under Ferentz, Iowa is 73-66-2 ATS. Iowa has won these games on average by 7.7 points and has covered by 2.3 points.
· Under Coach Ferentz, overs are 43-46-3 when Iowa is a home favorite. In 2021, overs are 1-3 when Iowa is the home favorite. These have missed by an average of 6.9 points.
· The over is 66-70-3 under Ferentz after a win by the Hawkeyes. The under has hit in these games by an average of 1.7 points.
· The under has hit in 5 of Iowa’s last 6 games against Big Ten West opponents.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· October 20, 2018. Every Purdue fan should remember that day. The biggest win in Brohm’s tenure at Purdue as the Boilers smacked Ohio State by 29 points with Tyler Trent in attendance. Ohio State was #2 in that game, just as Iowa is Saturday. Many Purdue fans, myself included, are drawing comparisons between the games. This has garnered some Purdue ML plays from even non-Purdue fans. My concern here is Iowa will be on their toes due to the O$U game.
· Let Down City. This will be more heavily discussed in the situational analysis, but this is a massive let down spot for Iowa. Late October is notorious for catching some higher ranked teams asleep. Iowa is coming off their biggest win of the season coming back from 14 points down to beat a Clifford-less Penn State team. If Clifford stays healthy does Iowa win? I do not think so. But as someone who was holding an Iowa -2.5 ticket last week, thank you Hawkeyes. Unfortunately, Iowa is on bye next week, so there is not much of a look ahead. But, the Penn State comeback may be enough to catch the Hawkeyes nappin this Saturday.
· Indiana Boys suiting up. Iowa has four listed players from Indiana. Justin Britt is the most notable, having been teammates with David Bell at Warren. I am so scarred from Gary Harris, that I always assume Indiana guys playing against Purdue are going to have career games, so something to look for.
· Injuries. Cory Trice and the two WRs being done for the year stinks. All three looked extremely promising this year and I was pleased with the continual progression. It does seem, however, Purdue will be getting Payne Durham back and some other guys which should help the offense.
· Revenge, maybe? Kirk Ferentz knows Purdue has owned Iowa. Iowa looked relatively good last year after the loss to Purdue, but I wonder if the Iowa team remembers the loss and has heard the noise about Purdue.
· Weather once looks good. No rain, which normally is the bat signal to fade Brohm.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: We have a large sample size of bets placed so I finally feel like we can truly use numbers as a barometer for gambling here. Purdue is currently maintaining a 6% sharp differential, with 6% more of the money on Purdue than bets on Purdue. The money is fairly split, but Iowa having 61% of the bets on them but less than 60% of the money would be concerning if I am an Iowa bettor. Additionally, outside initial day moves, the line has held relatively steady at 11.5. Iowa money is coming in and the line has held firm. A majority of bets are on the under while a majority of money (NOW 67% under and 60% money on over) is on the over. EDGE: Purdue, Over
Trends: This is very similar to Notre Dame. Traditionally speaking, this is the ideal spot to bet Jeff Brohm. He is an underdog, on the road, against a ranked team. That is the holy trinity of Brohm trends. With that being said, Iowa has been an absolute wagon against the spread this year. They have done just enough to cover in all the games they play, in large thanks to the turnovers created by their defense. For the total, Purdue has yet to play in a game that has gone over this season. The Boilers defense has been great, but the larger concern is the point production from the offense. Iowa loves their defense too, so the trend would tell me under. EDGE: Purdue, Under.
Situation: Quite different paths have been taken by these two teams since their last meeting. Iowa has been on a mission and has won almost every game they have played since the loss to the Boilers. Purdue has struggled immensely in the redzone and is coming off a loss to Minnesota and a bye. Iowa just beat a top 5 team on national television in front of the nation. I think the average CFB bettor would tell you 11.5 is way too small and to take Iowa. This is a fantastic situational spot for Purdue. This is a letdown spot for Iowa after a big, emotional win. I would expect Iowa to come out a little flat early with a Penn State hangover. Purdue should be fresh, healthy and prepared after a week off and a bad taste in their mouth from Minnesota. Both teams’ defenses have been outstanding, and the Boilers offense has developed a reputation to not score. Purdue has had an extra week to work on the redzone offense, and I believe Purdue’s struggles have inflated this line on the under side, so situationally, the edge is to the over. EDGE: Purdue and the Over.
Total Analysis: This is the Jeff Brohm play. All gambling indicators point to Purdue. Brohm has absolutely thrived in these underdog spots and this game has the similar feel to 2018 Ohio State. Iowa is a team that does not turn the ball over and capitalizes on mistakes. Purdue is a team that makes too many mistakes as is. I am putting a lot of faith in the bye week. Brohm has traditionally shown the aptitude to thrive with the extra week of prep, and I expect a gameplan to force Iowa’s offense to score points. Turnovers and redzone efficiency will tell the tale of this game. My sole public concern is that Purdue ML has become quite the popular pick. The more under the radar Purdue flys here the better. I believe the hangover let down spot presents a great opportunity for the Boilers to come in and hit the Hawkeyes in the mouth early.
Prediction: 24-21 Hawkeyes. The column has been awful, I may recommend fading, but I like Purdue to cover and the over. An under has to hit at some point, and the Hawkeyes are in an awful situational spot here getting a fresh Purdue team in late October. I expect Brohm to open the call sheet up, try to feed David Bell, and put up some points.
Official Plays (3-8 on Season): Purdue +11.5, Over 43. Sprinkle on Purdue ML +420.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-4): Ok St. +3.5. The Pokes are on the road at Texas and only a 3.5 point underdog. I like Ok. St. moneyline here a lot.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against Iowa meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or Iowa +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the Iowa spread, the Hawkeyes would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Iowa by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Iowa has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
