Welcome to the third year, third edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Week 1 RECAP:
Yikes. The Column goes 0-3 as the Boilers cover -34 and the total goes under. This was a massive let down spot but the Boilers showed up exactly how they needed to. First road game of the year, with Notre Dame on the horizon, and the Boilers crush a bad UConn team. That is what good teams should do to a team like UConn. While I would argue that UConn left some easy points on the board to hit the over, Purdue looked as impressive as they should have. I have said it once and I will say it again, the sportsbooks are COWARDS for not giving me David Bell Heisman odds (This is a tender subject for me because I wanted Jonathan India NL Rookie of the Year odds and the books I was on only gave me Nick Lodolo Reds odds, and for anyone who follows the Reds, you knew Lodolo was not going to see big league time this year).
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-0 ATS, Overs are 0-2.
Notre Dame: 0-2 ATS, Overs are 2-0. Notre Dame failed to cover against Florida State and Toledo. Florida State-Notre Dame ended up being the best game of opening weekend, and Toledo provided a real scare to the Irish last weekend. Notre Dame and Purdue are literal polar opposite at this point with ND loving the over and not covering, and Purdue loving to cover and hit the under.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 1:00pm on 9/17/21:
Current spread: Purdue +7 (Opened +10.5),
1H Spread: Purdue +4, O/U 29
Over/Under: 58.5 (Opened 59.5)
Bets: 49% on Purdue, 52% on over
Money: 37% on Purdue, 62% on over
Notre Dame O/U: 33.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Purdue O/U: 24.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Notre Dame: 0-0
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -180. As of Week 3, this number is now 75/1. Ohio State odds fall slightly after the loss to the Ducks, while the Boilers increased from 80/1 last week.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Wisconsin is the current favorite at -115. As of Week 3, this number is still at 20/1. Iowa has taken a slight lead over Wisconsin to +100.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at +180. As of Week 3, this number is still 400/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 3, Purdue is going exactly as expected with two wins to start.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Notre Dame:
· Purdue under Brohm is 6-1 ATS as an away underdog. Brohm is almost always a must play as an underdog and a must fade as a favorite. However, this is in jeopardy with Brohm winning two straight ATS as a favorite. This is, without a doubt, the highest ATS cover trend for Brohm. This situation did not occur last year as the Boilers were never underdogs on the road. However, this situation did happen three times in 2019, with the Boilers covering against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State.
· Purdue is 8-2 ATS under Brohm against ranked teams. It is no surprise that Brohm has a tendency to rise to the occasion against ranked teams. His motivational tactics seem to resonate significantly more when coming from the side of David rather than Goliath.
· Purdue is now 9-4 ATS in non-conference games under Jeff Brohm. This trend was put on a hiatus last year with the conference only schedule, so we must revisit 2019. The Boilers failed to cover in two of the three non-conference games. Purdue blew a cover against Nevada, and then proceeded to absolutely steamroll a very bad Vanderbilt team. The following week, under the lights, Purdue played the nail as the TCU hammer won convincingly. Take out 2019, and Brohm boasts a 7-2 (including 2021) ATS record against non-conference opponents.
· In games where Purdue is an away underdog under Brohm, the total has gone under six out of the last seven games. This occurred most recently in last season’s Penn State game.
· As a home favorite, Notre Dame is 27-33-1 ATS under Brian Kelly. On average, they have won these games by 14.7 points and failed to cover by -0.4 points.
· After a Notre Dame win under Kelly, Notre Dame is 49-45-4 ATS. Notre Dame has won these games on average by 10.3 points and has covered on average by 1.1 points.
· Overall, Notre Dame was 71-68-4 ATS in games under Kelly. Notre Dame is generally a favorite in most of its games, so it is not a surprise to see the large amount of games being played as a home favorite.
· Under Coach Kelly, overs are 29-34 when Notre Dame is a home favorite. The total has gone under on average by 1.4 points.
· The over is 40-57-1 under Kelly after a win by the Fighting Irish. The under has hit on average by 2.4 points.
· Purdue is now 1-7 straight up in its last 8 games against Independents. Thank you UConn.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Little Trivia to start off the factors list. Notre Dame has only played two teams more than Purdue, Navy and USC. Notre Dame has dominated the series, but the Spoilermakers nicknamed emerged from some of the massive wins by Purdue in the series history. This is a rivalry, obviously, but a rivalry that has been dormant since 2014. Most of the players on the roster were barely in high school, if in high school at all, the last time these two played. Will it feel like a true rivalry game for the players? Maybe. If they are from Indiana I suppose they might. But the truth of the matter is that for Notre Dame, I assume this is just another game on their way to a college football playoff birth. For Purdue, it is a chance to announce their legitimacy as a Big Ten contender. Notre Dame has more to lose, but Purdue has a lot to gain. As a fan, one can only hope we see the fire that these rivalry games bring out.
· Brian Kelly has never lost to Purdue in his time at Notre Dame. 2012 and 2013 both provided scares for Notre Dame as Purdue played extremely tough in both of those games.
· Welcome back Marcus Freeman. Coach Freeman has joined the Notre Dame staff from Cincinnati. Coach Freeman was also a Boilermaker defensive coach during the Hazell era. It is safe to say his defensive scheme did not do so hot at Purdue. His success at Cincinnati made him one of the hottest names in the coaching market, destined for a head coaching gig in the interim. His tenure at Notre Dame thus far has been lackluster. Notre Dame gave up 35 points to Florida State, and a lot of the points came from big plays. Surely Brohm will take advantage. Toledo also had success moving the ball and scoring points against ND. Will this be the game Freeman figures it out? As a Purdue undergrad and former employee for the Cincinnati athletic department, my gut tells me that Fickell had a whole lot more to do with those Cincinnati defenses than Marcus Freeman did. While I always wish former Boilermaker coaches well moving forward (except you, Darell), here is to hoping Freeman and the Notre Dame defense struggle for a third straight week.
· Full House. Notre Dame Stadium holds just under 80,000 people. I expect a full house come Saturday. This will be the largest crowd the Boilers have played in front of since Penn State in 2019. How will the Boilers react to a very loud and unfriendly atmosphere? Notre Dame is a bucket list experience for many college football fans and players, so there is some concern about the moment being too big.
· Can you have a look ahead spot in a rivalry game? My gut tells me no, but as stated above, is this a true rivalry game? Notre Dame has an absolute gauntlet of a schedule coming up. They face Wisconsin in Chicago next weekend, followed by Cincinnati, @ Virginia Tech and USC. The past two games probably served as wake up calls for the Irish, but you never know.
· Drum Revenge. For the first time since 1979, the Boilers will not have the thundering thud of the World’s Largest Drum in the stadium on Saturday. Notre Dame has decided that the drum cannot use the home tunnel, and thus, will need to stay home in West Lafayette. Will this fire the Boilers up??? No, probably not. But as a gambler, I have already convinced myself of the lore that surrounds the drum revenge game and will absolutely factor it in.
· Brohm the Underdog and the Den of Defensive Ends. Jeff Brohm thrives in underdog spots (see trends) and I expect him to be extra ready to roll Saturday to take on Notre Dame. Still the top dog in the state, I expect some trick plays and shots taken. For Purdue to win this game, Mr. Karlaftis needs to flex the Den of Defensive Ends status and cause continual havoc in the back field. Think Kerrigan against Ohio State.
· Weather should be a non-factor. South Bend looks sunny and hot with temperatures around 80 degrees.
· Jack Coan, is that you? Notre Dame will be rolling out former Wisconsin starter Jack Coan Saturday. While Jack does not have Jonathan Taylor available to gash the Boilers, Kyren Williams can certainly hold his own. Jack is familiar with Purdue and specifically a Brohm coached Purdue team. I will be curious to see if that makes a difference in his performance trend.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Ticket percentages on spread are fairly even, but we do see money on Notre Dame. There is about a 12% sharp gap where 12% more money is on Notre Dame than tickets, a strong indicator of sharp money. As stated in this column before, I am always weary when tickets or money surpasses 60% (how did that work out last week?). The sharps seem to be a little more on ND while the public seems to think Purdue could be a trendy upset pick. The over numbers are similar. Slightly more tickets on the over, but definitely sharp money heading to the over at about a 10% margin. The numbers tell me to lean Notre Dame spread and lean the over. However, I am still concerned about both surpassing 60%. Numbers edge: Notre Dame and the over.
Trends: This is, by far and away, the strongest trends I have seen. From a trend standpoint, absolutely back Purdue. Brohm has shown a propensity to play games as an underdog extremely close. Not only is Purdue a road underdog, but the Boilers are playing a ranked team, another spot where the Boilers have shown trends of playing very well. The trends also suggest the Irish may struggle in this spot ATS. The trends also show me that the over may be more in line with trends. Notre Dame has seen the under cash frequently as a home favorite. The under has also gone under for Purdue frequently when they are the away underdog. Trend edge: Purdue ATS and the under.
Situation: The situational edge goes to Notre Dame. Purdue is coming off an absolute dog walking of UConn. The good news for Purdue is not too many people raised their eyebrows at the score given the condition of UConn football. Where people are raising their eyebrows is the Toledo-Notre Dame result coupled with the Jacksonville State-Florida State result. The big, bad, fighting Irish squeaked out a win in Tallahassee where the general consensus was Notre Dame has a viable offense with a defense that needs work. Then Florida State lost to JSU and all that went out the window. Combined with the fact that Notre Dame STRUGGLED with Toledo, and there is some genuine concern with ND, specifically the defense, going forward. If you need some more evidence, look no further than their slide down the polls. I am concerned that from a situational standpoint, the under is in a good spot since everyone seems to question the ND D. Situational Edge: Notre Dame and the under.
Total Analysis: I am so unbelievably split on this game. My heart so badly wants to pick Purdue. My bias is coming out more than normal. Jeff Brohm is maybe the best coach in the country ATS playing in this underdog role. However, the situational spots have me concerned with ND’s potential. MAC football has a very special place in my heart so I certainly respect Toledo, but Notre Dame has the talent to play much, much better than they have been as of late. It would be awful for them to decide Saturday is the day to reach their potential. Notre Dame’s defense has been extremely susceptible to big plays. Purdue is the team to take advantage of that, especially with Brohm at the head. I like Jack Coan from a game manager standpoint, but Jack Coan does not worry me in the slightest if he has to win the game. If Purdue can force ND to play catch up and get away from the run, I like Purdue here a lot. I still am unsure about Purdue’s defense. Yes they played very well against Oregon State and UConn, but let’s face it, those are not good offenses. Kyren Williams and the ND O-Line are a different beast and it will be a fascinating test for the Boilers. The numbers tell me to take ND, the trends tell me to back Purdue, and the situational spot confirms ND. Are the trends strong enough to overtake the numbers and the situational spot? Maybe. The situational spot is not particularly strong against Purdue. It is worth reiterating that while Purdue blew the doors off UConn, no one was surprised by that. So do people really think Purdue is good? I am not sure. Jeff Brohm surely will open his entire playbook and one can hope that Marcus Freeman’s defense can be taken advantage of.
Prediction: 31-27, Irish. I cannot, in good conscience, go against Jeff Brohm in an underdog spot. I think the Boilers keep it close and cover, but the Irish running game ultimately prevails. The talent on the ND side of the ball is too great, even though the Boilers will have the two best players on the field Saturday. I expect the Boilers to get a couple big plays, but the Irish to run the ball effectively and manage the game.
Official Plays: Purdue +7, Under 58.5. The fan in me believes that Purdue either wins outright or is blown out by 21. I will absolutely be betting Purdue ML, but for no other reason that I believe Brohm’s play calling and Big George can win this game. What is your best bet for the weekend?
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-1): IU +4. Maybe the grossest bet on the board, but this has to be a rat line. How on Earth is IU only a four point underdog? I went to UC for grad school so I am a fan, but this line makes no sense to me. Vegas knows something we do not, and the public is all over Cincy. Rat line here, and here's hoping I am very wrong. Go Bearcats.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +7 against Notre Dame meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 7.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +7 or Notre Dame -7. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win or lose by less than 7. If one bets on the Notre Dame spread, the Fighting Irish would have to win by 8 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue loses to Notre Dame by 3, ND has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Week 1 RECAP:
Yikes. The Column goes 0-3 as the Boilers cover -34 and the total goes under. This was a massive let down spot but the Boilers showed up exactly how they needed to. First road game of the year, with Notre Dame on the horizon, and the Boilers crush a bad UConn team. That is what good teams should do to a team like UConn. While I would argue that UConn left some easy points on the board to hit the over, Purdue looked as impressive as they should have. I have said it once and I will say it again, the sportsbooks are COWARDS for not giving me David Bell Heisman odds (This is a tender subject for me because I wanted Jonathan India NL Rookie of the Year odds and the books I was on only gave me Nick Lodolo Reds odds, and for anyone who follows the Reds, you knew Lodolo was not going to see big league time this year).
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-0 ATS, Overs are 0-2.
Notre Dame: 0-2 ATS, Overs are 2-0. Notre Dame failed to cover against Florida State and Toledo. Florida State-Notre Dame ended up being the best game of opening weekend, and Toledo provided a real scare to the Irish last weekend. Notre Dame and Purdue are literal polar opposite at this point with ND loving the over and not covering, and Purdue loving to cover and hit the under.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 1:00pm on 9/17/21:
Current spread: Purdue +7 (Opened +10.5),
1H Spread: Purdue +4, O/U 29
Over/Under: 58.5 (Opened 59.5)
Bets: 49% on Purdue, 52% on over
Money: 37% on Purdue, 62% on over
Notre Dame O/U: 33.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Purdue O/U: 24.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
Jeff Brohm vs. Notre Dame: 0-0
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -180. As of Week 3, this number is now 75/1. Ohio State odds fall slightly after the loss to the Ducks, while the Boilers increased from 80/1 last week.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Wisconsin is the current favorite at -115. As of Week 3, this number is still at 20/1. Iowa has taken a slight lead over Wisconsin to +100.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at +180. As of Week 3, this number is still 400/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 3, Purdue is going exactly as expected with two wins to start.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Notre Dame:
· Purdue under Brohm is 6-1 ATS as an away underdog. Brohm is almost always a must play as an underdog and a must fade as a favorite. However, this is in jeopardy with Brohm winning two straight ATS as a favorite. This is, without a doubt, the highest ATS cover trend for Brohm. This situation did not occur last year as the Boilers were never underdogs on the road. However, this situation did happen three times in 2019, with the Boilers covering against Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State.
· Purdue is 8-2 ATS under Brohm against ranked teams. It is no surprise that Brohm has a tendency to rise to the occasion against ranked teams. His motivational tactics seem to resonate significantly more when coming from the side of David rather than Goliath.
· Purdue is now 9-4 ATS in non-conference games under Jeff Brohm. This trend was put on a hiatus last year with the conference only schedule, so we must revisit 2019. The Boilers failed to cover in two of the three non-conference games. Purdue blew a cover against Nevada, and then proceeded to absolutely steamroll a very bad Vanderbilt team. The following week, under the lights, Purdue played the nail as the TCU hammer won convincingly. Take out 2019, and Brohm boasts a 7-2 (including 2021) ATS record against non-conference opponents.
· In games where Purdue is an away underdog under Brohm, the total has gone under six out of the last seven games. This occurred most recently in last season’s Penn State game.
· As a home favorite, Notre Dame is 27-33-1 ATS under Brian Kelly. On average, they have won these games by 14.7 points and failed to cover by -0.4 points.
· After a Notre Dame win under Kelly, Notre Dame is 49-45-4 ATS. Notre Dame has won these games on average by 10.3 points and has covered on average by 1.1 points.
· Overall, Notre Dame was 71-68-4 ATS in games under Kelly. Notre Dame is generally a favorite in most of its games, so it is not a surprise to see the large amount of games being played as a home favorite.
· Under Coach Kelly, overs are 29-34 when Notre Dame is a home favorite. The total has gone under on average by 1.4 points.
· The over is 40-57-1 under Kelly after a win by the Fighting Irish. The under has hit on average by 2.4 points.
· Purdue is now 1-7 straight up in its last 8 games against Independents. Thank you UConn.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Little Trivia to start off the factors list. Notre Dame has only played two teams more than Purdue, Navy and USC. Notre Dame has dominated the series, but the Spoilermakers nicknamed emerged from some of the massive wins by Purdue in the series history. This is a rivalry, obviously, but a rivalry that has been dormant since 2014. Most of the players on the roster were barely in high school, if in high school at all, the last time these two played. Will it feel like a true rivalry game for the players? Maybe. If they are from Indiana I suppose they might. But the truth of the matter is that for Notre Dame, I assume this is just another game on their way to a college football playoff birth. For Purdue, it is a chance to announce their legitimacy as a Big Ten contender. Notre Dame has more to lose, but Purdue has a lot to gain. As a fan, one can only hope we see the fire that these rivalry games bring out.
· Brian Kelly has never lost to Purdue in his time at Notre Dame. 2012 and 2013 both provided scares for Notre Dame as Purdue played extremely tough in both of those games.
· Welcome back Marcus Freeman. Coach Freeman has joined the Notre Dame staff from Cincinnati. Coach Freeman was also a Boilermaker defensive coach during the Hazell era. It is safe to say his defensive scheme did not do so hot at Purdue. His success at Cincinnati made him one of the hottest names in the coaching market, destined for a head coaching gig in the interim. His tenure at Notre Dame thus far has been lackluster. Notre Dame gave up 35 points to Florida State, and a lot of the points came from big plays. Surely Brohm will take advantage. Toledo also had success moving the ball and scoring points against ND. Will this be the game Freeman figures it out? As a Purdue undergrad and former employee for the Cincinnati athletic department, my gut tells me that Fickell had a whole lot more to do with those Cincinnati defenses than Marcus Freeman did. While I always wish former Boilermaker coaches well moving forward (except you, Darell), here is to hoping Freeman and the Notre Dame defense struggle for a third straight week.
· Full House. Notre Dame Stadium holds just under 80,000 people. I expect a full house come Saturday. This will be the largest crowd the Boilers have played in front of since Penn State in 2019. How will the Boilers react to a very loud and unfriendly atmosphere? Notre Dame is a bucket list experience for many college football fans and players, so there is some concern about the moment being too big.
· Can you have a look ahead spot in a rivalry game? My gut tells me no, but as stated above, is this a true rivalry game? Notre Dame has an absolute gauntlet of a schedule coming up. They face Wisconsin in Chicago next weekend, followed by Cincinnati, @ Virginia Tech and USC. The past two games probably served as wake up calls for the Irish, but you never know.
· Drum Revenge. For the first time since 1979, the Boilers will not have the thundering thud of the World’s Largest Drum in the stadium on Saturday. Notre Dame has decided that the drum cannot use the home tunnel, and thus, will need to stay home in West Lafayette. Will this fire the Boilers up??? No, probably not. But as a gambler, I have already convinced myself of the lore that surrounds the drum revenge game and will absolutely factor it in.
· Brohm the Underdog and the Den of Defensive Ends. Jeff Brohm thrives in underdog spots (see trends) and I expect him to be extra ready to roll Saturday to take on Notre Dame. Still the top dog in the state, I expect some trick plays and shots taken. For Purdue to win this game, Mr. Karlaftis needs to flex the Den of Defensive Ends status and cause continual havoc in the back field. Think Kerrigan against Ohio State.
· Weather should be a non-factor. South Bend looks sunny and hot with temperatures around 80 degrees.
· Jack Coan, is that you? Notre Dame will be rolling out former Wisconsin starter Jack Coan Saturday. While Jack does not have Jonathan Taylor available to gash the Boilers, Kyren Williams can certainly hold his own. Jack is familiar with Purdue and specifically a Brohm coached Purdue team. I will be curious to see if that makes a difference in his performance trend.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Ticket percentages on spread are fairly even, but we do see money on Notre Dame. There is about a 12% sharp gap where 12% more money is on Notre Dame than tickets, a strong indicator of sharp money. As stated in this column before, I am always weary when tickets or money surpasses 60% (how did that work out last week?). The sharps seem to be a little more on ND while the public seems to think Purdue could be a trendy upset pick. The over numbers are similar. Slightly more tickets on the over, but definitely sharp money heading to the over at about a 10% margin. The numbers tell me to lean Notre Dame spread and lean the over. However, I am still concerned about both surpassing 60%. Numbers edge: Notre Dame and the over.
Trends: This is, by far and away, the strongest trends I have seen. From a trend standpoint, absolutely back Purdue. Brohm has shown a propensity to play games as an underdog extremely close. Not only is Purdue a road underdog, but the Boilers are playing a ranked team, another spot where the Boilers have shown trends of playing very well. The trends also suggest the Irish may struggle in this spot ATS. The trends also show me that the over may be more in line with trends. Notre Dame has seen the under cash frequently as a home favorite. The under has also gone under for Purdue frequently when they are the away underdog. Trend edge: Purdue ATS and the under.
Situation: The situational edge goes to Notre Dame. Purdue is coming off an absolute dog walking of UConn. The good news for Purdue is not too many people raised their eyebrows at the score given the condition of UConn football. Where people are raising their eyebrows is the Toledo-Notre Dame result coupled with the Jacksonville State-Florida State result. The big, bad, fighting Irish squeaked out a win in Tallahassee where the general consensus was Notre Dame has a viable offense with a defense that needs work. Then Florida State lost to JSU and all that went out the window. Combined with the fact that Notre Dame STRUGGLED with Toledo, and there is some genuine concern with ND, specifically the defense, going forward. If you need some more evidence, look no further than their slide down the polls. I am concerned that from a situational standpoint, the under is in a good spot since everyone seems to question the ND D. Situational Edge: Notre Dame and the under.
Total Analysis: I am so unbelievably split on this game. My heart so badly wants to pick Purdue. My bias is coming out more than normal. Jeff Brohm is maybe the best coach in the country ATS playing in this underdog role. However, the situational spots have me concerned with ND’s potential. MAC football has a very special place in my heart so I certainly respect Toledo, but Notre Dame has the talent to play much, much better than they have been as of late. It would be awful for them to decide Saturday is the day to reach their potential. Notre Dame’s defense has been extremely susceptible to big plays. Purdue is the team to take advantage of that, especially with Brohm at the head. I like Jack Coan from a game manager standpoint, but Jack Coan does not worry me in the slightest if he has to win the game. If Purdue can force ND to play catch up and get away from the run, I like Purdue here a lot. I still am unsure about Purdue’s defense. Yes they played very well against Oregon State and UConn, but let’s face it, those are not good offenses. Kyren Williams and the ND O-Line are a different beast and it will be a fascinating test for the Boilers. The numbers tell me to take ND, the trends tell me to back Purdue, and the situational spot confirms ND. Are the trends strong enough to overtake the numbers and the situational spot? Maybe. The situational spot is not particularly strong against Purdue. It is worth reiterating that while Purdue blew the doors off UConn, no one was surprised by that. So do people really think Purdue is good? I am not sure. Jeff Brohm surely will open his entire playbook and one can hope that Marcus Freeman’s defense can be taken advantage of.
Prediction: 31-27, Irish. I cannot, in good conscience, go against Jeff Brohm in an underdog spot. I think the Boilers keep it close and cover, but the Irish running game ultimately prevails. The talent on the ND side of the ball is too great, even though the Boilers will have the two best players on the field Saturday. I expect the Boilers to get a couple big plays, but the Irish to run the ball effectively and manage the game.
Official Plays: Purdue +7, Under 58.5. The fan in me believes that Purdue either wins outright or is blown out by 21. I will absolutely be betting Purdue ML, but for no other reason that I believe Brohm’s play calling and Big George can win this game. What is your best bet for the weekend?
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-1): IU +4. Maybe the grossest bet on the board, but this has to be a rat line. How on Earth is IU only a four point underdog? I went to UC for grad school so I am a fan, but this line makes no sense to me. Vegas knows something we do not, and the public is all over Cincy. Rat line here, and here's hoping I am very wrong. Go Bearcats.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +7 against Notre Dame meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 7.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +7 or Notre Dame -7. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win or lose by less than 7. If one bets on the Notre Dame spread, the Fighting Irish would have to win by 8 or more.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue loses to Notre Dame by 3, ND has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
