Welcome to the third year, fifth edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Week 4 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 as the Boilers fail to cover -11, the total goes under, and Notre Dame blows out Wisconsin in the fourth quarter. Purdue offense failed to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Purdue D displayed another impressive outing.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-2 ATS, Overs are 0-4.
Minnesota: 1-2-1 ATS, Overs are 2-2. Minnesota failed to cover last week in a straight up loss to Bowling Green as a 31 point favorite. The Gophers covered against Colorado, failed to cover against Miami (OH) and pushed in the opener against O$U.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/01/21:
Current spread: Purdue -2.5 (Opened -2),
1H Spread: Purdue -0.5, O/U 23
Over/Under: 47 (Opened 46.5)
Bets: 52% on Purdue, 36% on over
Money: 58% on Purdue, 81% on over
Minnesota O/U: 22.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
Purdue O/U: 23.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
Jeff Brohm vs. Minnesota: 1-3, 1-3 ATS.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week. I am keeping Purdue’s odds at the start of the season for comparison purposes.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -150. As of Week 5, Purdue’s odds are at 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Iowa is the current favorite at +105. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 20/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at +175. As of Week 5, Purdue’s odds are at 500/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 5, Purdue is going exactly as expected with three wins to start and a loss to ND. That means to push, Purdue will need 2 wins from the remaining schedule, while three wins will cash the over. Realistically, Purdue is favored against Minnesota, and will likely be favored against Northwestern, Nebraska and maybe IU. If the Boilers can steal a win from Wisconsin-MSU-OSU-Iowa, they are in great shape to hit the over.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Minnesota:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative rebounded with a no-doubter as the Boilers struggled to ever extend a lead over the Illini. Purdue is now 1-1 ATS as a home favorite this year. Brohm is put in an interesting spot here. This spread is eerily similar to the TCU and Minnesota spreads from 2019. Both those games went very bad for the Boilers. I was hoping this spread would move towards Minnesota, but Bowling Green put a fork in that.
· Purdue is 11-9 ATS after a win under Brohm. The Boilers cover in this spot by an average of 1.6 points, however lose these games outright on average by 0.7 points. The negative outright result tells me that when Purdue has lost in this spot, it is by a more significant margin that the wins. Purdue is 1-1 ATS in this spot in 2021. Purdue covered against Uconn after beating Oregon State, but failed to cover after beating Uconn, losing to ND.
· Purdue is 20-12 ATS in games where both teams have equal rest under Jeff Brohm. Illinois had a slight rest advantage last week, however, Purdue is shown to be fairly reliable when given the same amount of time to gameplan as their opponent. This stat can be a bit misleading, but the general trend tells me Brohm is a pretty good gameplanner when all things are equal.
· In games where Purdue is a home favorite under Brohm, the total has gone over nine out of the last sixteen games. The total went under in the Oregon State and Illinois games this season. On a broader note, the under is 4-0 in Purdue games this year. However, the total has gone OVER in 8 of Purdue's last 9 games against Minnesota.
· After a win, the total has gone under in 13 of the last 20 games under Brohm. The under has hit on average by 4 points. Purdue saw the game go under against Uconn after the win against Oregon State, and the total go under after the win against Uconn.
· As an away underdog, Minnesota is 8-6 ATS under P.J. Fleck. The Gophers cover in this spot by an average of 3.5 points, but lose the game on average by 4.3 points.
· After an Minnesota loss under Fleck, Minnesota is 9-8-1 ATS. Minnesota has lost these games on average by 1.6 points and has failed to cover on average by 4 points.
· Under Coach Fleck, overs are 6-8 when Minnesota is an away underdog. The total went under in the Colorado game after Minnesota shutout the Buffs.
· The over is 12-6 under Fleck after a loss by the Golden Gophers. The over has hit in these games by an average of 7 points.
· The total has gone under in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road. Minnesota is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Big Ten West opponents.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· REVENGE. Everyone is talking about Penn State-IU as the marquee revenge game. Poor Penn State claims to have been screwed in their 2020 loss to IU when Michael Penix Jr.’s last ditch effort got him the two point conversion to beat the Nittany Lions. It was objectively close, and I am still not sure I would argue whichever way that call went. However, the real revenge game will be in West Lafayette when the Boilers try to avenge one of the worst offensive pass interference calls in the history of American Football. Sportsbook lined the block to give bettors back money because the call was so universally egregious, that Vegas, yes Vegas, even felt bad. The Minnesota loss shattered the Boilers season and piss-poor play ensued, losing to Nebraska and Rutgers. Now, the Boilers go into this game at 3-1, with a 1-0 record in Big Ten play, sitting tied atop the Big Ten West leaderboard with Iowa.
· Classmates. Brohm and Fleck both entered the Big Ten landscape in 2017. While Brohm got the best of Fleck in 2017, it has been all Fleck since including an all out ass whooping in 2018 by the Gophers. The common theme between the two has been the ability to generate points when going head to head. Almost all of the games between them have gone over.
· QB Controversy. Marve v. Ter Bush. Etling v. Appleby. Blough v. Sindelar. AOC v. Plummer. The QB controversies that have plagued the Boilers for a decade continue to rear their ugly head as Brohm has once again left us in the dark about which QB will be starting. I cannot see a world where Plummer starts. I like Jack, I do not think he has been bad, but two straight pulls for AOC, and especially after the touchdown to beat Illinois, and it is hard to make a case AOC does not deserve the job. How will this change the Purdue offense? I am not sure. I expect a more aggressive approach. Minnesota is not dumb, and I expect them to prepare for both, with an emphasis on AOC.
· Injuries. Both teams enter the game banged up. Minnesota is without their best player in Mo Ibrahim, while the Boilers could be without a whole slew of guys including Bell, King, Durham, Mitchell, and others. My gut tells me Bell plays, but injuries will have a massive impact here, and it is too bad both teams cannot go in healthy.
· Homecoming, welcome back! For the first time since 2019, Purdue will host homecoming again. If you remember in 2019, Purdue unveiled new uniforms and absolutely dog walked Maryland to the tune of Jack Plummer looking like the next cradle member. On Homecoming 2018, the Boilers put up arguably their best defensive performance under Nick Holt, shutting down all-america (and now Packer) A.J. Dillon. The Boilers won easy, thanks to some Rondale magic, 30-13.
· Weather once again, looks incredible. Mid 70’s with almost zero chance of rain in the forecast.
· In this week’s addition of: “How the **** is he still eligible?”: Tanner Morgan. Graduate man, come on.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Good, but not great, sample size for bets so far. We are seeing a 6% sharp advantage on Purdue with 52% of the tickets, but 58% of the money on Purdue. This implies that there is some sharp money flowing in on Purdue at the number. The sample size for the O/U is much smaller, justifying the large difference between bet and money percentages. While the majority of bets are clearly on the under, one bettor has made a very large bet on the over. The number 2.5 concerns me. This is a common Vegas trick, and I want to revisit the gambling term known as “the hook.” The hook represents the .5 that can be the difference between and outright win or loss by a gambler. Vegas can use the hook to really influence gambler decision making. For example, it is very easy to see 2.5 and think, well the Boilers just need to win by a field goal! Then a missed extra point later or a wanky two point conversion later and the Boilers win by two, losing the spread by the hook. I would field better with this being 3.5, as it would likely bring it bets on Minnesota. EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.
Trends: Brohm reverted back to his trendline as the Boilers failed to cover as a double digit favorite. The most glaring trends seem to be the over hitting in Minnesota games after a loss and Brohm’s ATS record when Purdue has equal rest. Again, the trends have been dicey this year and quite frankly unreliable. A purely macro trend based pick would ultimately lead you to Minnesota to cover and the game to go under. On a micro level, Brohm has been good as a favorite this year, and the under cannot stop hitting for Purdue. One key aspect about over/under totals for Brohm coached Purdue teams, Brohm’s reputation is well known. He is considered to be an offensive guru and that is his national reputation. As a result a lot of times the under has inherent value, since the public is so quick to jump on a Brohm under. This Purdue defense is putting a stop to that as the under has hit in every game this year. The defense may finally meet its match this week when the Minnesota O-Line rolls into town. Vegas seems to have a knack for waiting on a bettor to exhaust his preconceived notion (I.E. Brohm is an over guy) and when they have finally given up hope and bet an under, the over will hit. However, trends are trends and we must try to read them accordingly. EDGE: Minnesota +2.5, Under.
Situation: What a wild situational spot we find these teams in. As I walked out of Ross-Ade Saturday night, you would have thought Purdue had lost the game by 20. Purdue's offense looked anemic as the Boilers got into the endzone once the entire game. Purdue failed to cover against a bad Illinois team and a QB battle emerging before our eyes, again. Minnesota, on the other hand, lost outright as a 31 point favorite to Bowling Green. Yes, you read that correctly. A week after blanking Colorado, the Gophers lose to Bowling Green as a massive favorite. The public view is obviously going to be more influenced by the team who lost to a MAC Squad. This leads us to a little bit of concern, how is the spread only 2.5 points? Shouldn’t Purdue be higher? There are a couple analytical points to discuss. On one hand, Purdue did not look good either, so is 2.5 really that shocking? Minnesota has been Jekyll and Hyde all year with some very odd box scores. Maybe PJ Fleck still has a soft spot for the MAC and that is why Minnesota has struggled against Miami OH and Bowling Green. Minnesota will still get up for big games. That is how Fleck manages. Neither of these programs are at a place to really garner national attention, so it is not outside the realm of possibility that a situational stance here is a hard overvalue of its importance. I would still expect there to be more overreaction to Minnesota only being a 2.5 dog. Purdue’s defense looks awesome, their offense cannot score, and Minnesota is addicted to running the ball. Every factor screams “TAKE THE UNDER” from the top of the nearest Culvers, so when the factors zig, the situational spot zags. EDGE: Minnesota and the Over.
Total Analysis: The true art and skill of analytical gambling is finding which factors will dictate any given week. It is essentially a weekly game of tug of war, with each statistic, number and factor pulling to force your decision. The biggest difference for me, is the presence of David Bell. While the offense still has playmakers absent Bell, there is not a consistent, reliable go to. There are plenty of playmakers, Milton Wright is a great example, who can make really good plays for you, but they are not consistent. David Bell is Mr. Consistency. If you put the ball in a place where he has a chance to get it, he will. That is a luxury that most college QBs do not, nor will ever, have. I believe he will play. The Minnesota secondary has been shaky, very shaky. These teams both do best, what the other does not. Minnesota has been fantastic running the ball, even with their all american hurt, and the Minnesota D has done a great job stopping the run. Purdue cannot even imagine what running the ball successfully looks like. However, will Bell, they have shown signs of life throwing the ball. The defense has been very good in the passing game, but has shown struggles in run stopping. The numbers tell me there is some sharp value on Purdue. I like the over from a numbers standpoint, seeing as so many people like the under. Purdue’s offense has to wake up. Jeff Brohm is too talented for it not to. IF Minnesota wins this game, I feel confident in saying it will be due to the offense’s ability to not score points. The trends are relatively even, with the hypothetical tug of war being very close. Brohm as a favorite is always worrisome, but the Boilers can score points at home. Situationally, I worry that this number is inflated due to Vegas’ assumption that the public will fade Minnesota.
Prediction: 27-24 Boilers. I am skeptical taking Brohm as a favorite, but this is a revenge game for Purdue. This may be a foolish double down, but the Boilers have too much talent offensively to continue to struggle. Minnesota is going to run the ball and chew clock, so possessions will be at a premium. I see Minnesota playing deep coverage with a focus on Bell, and forcing Purdue to go underneath and be patient. The film will show Purdue has struggled when teams take away the big play against Purdue. AOC will need to be precise as the Boilers will need to string some drives together. King and Bell both being back could potentially jump start this offense, and a Boiler lead early could force Tanner Morgan to make plays to keep Minnesota in the game. If Minnesota gets going early on the ground, it could be a long night for the Boilers.
Official Plays (3-5 on Season): Purdue -2.5, Over 47.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-3): This column was great last year, and has been a must fade so far. With that being said, this week I am plugging my nose and taking Wisconsin again. The Badgers host undefeated Michigan and are FAVORITES by 1.5 points. Wisconsin has owned Michigan as of late and I think Michigan’s easy schedule has caused this line to be inflated. Give me the Badgers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against Minnesota meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or Minnesota +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the Minnesota spread, the Golden Gophers would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Minnesota by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Minnesota has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Week 4 RECAP:
The Column goes 1-2 as the Boilers fail to cover -11, the total goes under, and Notre Dame blows out Wisconsin in the fourth quarter. Purdue offense failed to convert redzone opportunities into touchdowns, while the Purdue D displayed another impressive outing.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 2-2 ATS, Overs are 0-4.
Minnesota: 1-2-1 ATS, Overs are 2-2. Minnesota failed to cover last week in a straight up loss to Bowling Green as a 31 point favorite. The Gophers covered against Colorado, failed to cover against Miami (OH) and pushed in the opener against O$U.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:00am on 10/01/21:
Current spread: Purdue -2.5 (Opened -2),
1H Spread: Purdue -0.5, O/U 23
Over/Under: 47 (Opened 46.5)
Bets: 52% on Purdue, 36% on over
Money: 58% on Purdue, 81% on over
Minnesota O/U: 22.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
Purdue O/U: 23.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
Jeff Brohm vs. Minnesota: 1-3, 1-3 ATS.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory. The listed odds are the odds at the start of the season. I will update them week to week. I am keeping Purdue’s odds at the start of the season for comparison purposes.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -150. As of Week 5, Purdue’s odds are at 60/1.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Iowa is the current favorite at +105. As of Week 4, Purdue’s odds are at 20/1.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at +175. As of Week 5, Purdue’s odds are at 500/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 5, Purdue is going exactly as expected with three wins to start and a loss to ND. That means to push, Purdue will need 2 wins from the remaining schedule, while three wins will cash the over. Realistically, Purdue is favored against Minnesota, and will likely be favored against Northwestern, Nebraska and maybe IU. If the Boilers can steal a win from Wisconsin-MSU-OSU-Iowa, they are in great shape to hit the over.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Minnesota:
· Purdue under Brohm is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite. The “Fade Brohm as a favorite and back as a dog” narrative rebounded with a no-doubter as the Boilers struggled to ever extend a lead over the Illini. Purdue is now 1-1 ATS as a home favorite this year. Brohm is put in an interesting spot here. This spread is eerily similar to the TCU and Minnesota spreads from 2019. Both those games went very bad for the Boilers. I was hoping this spread would move towards Minnesota, but Bowling Green put a fork in that.
· Purdue is 11-9 ATS after a win under Brohm. The Boilers cover in this spot by an average of 1.6 points, however lose these games outright on average by 0.7 points. The negative outright result tells me that when Purdue has lost in this spot, it is by a more significant margin that the wins. Purdue is 1-1 ATS in this spot in 2021. Purdue covered against Uconn after beating Oregon State, but failed to cover after beating Uconn, losing to ND.
· Purdue is 20-12 ATS in games where both teams have equal rest under Jeff Brohm. Illinois had a slight rest advantage last week, however, Purdue is shown to be fairly reliable when given the same amount of time to gameplan as their opponent. This stat can be a bit misleading, but the general trend tells me Brohm is a pretty good gameplanner when all things are equal.
· In games where Purdue is a home favorite under Brohm, the total has gone over nine out of the last sixteen games. The total went under in the Oregon State and Illinois games this season. On a broader note, the under is 4-0 in Purdue games this year. However, the total has gone OVER in 8 of Purdue's last 9 games against Minnesota.
· After a win, the total has gone under in 13 of the last 20 games under Brohm. The under has hit on average by 4 points. Purdue saw the game go under against Uconn after the win against Oregon State, and the total go under after the win against Uconn.
· As an away underdog, Minnesota is 8-6 ATS under P.J. Fleck. The Gophers cover in this spot by an average of 3.5 points, but lose the game on average by 4.3 points.
· After an Minnesota loss under Fleck, Minnesota is 9-8-1 ATS. Minnesota has lost these games on average by 1.6 points and has failed to cover on average by 4 points.
· Under Coach Fleck, overs are 6-8 when Minnesota is an away underdog. The total went under in the Colorado game after Minnesota shutout the Buffs.
· The over is 12-6 under Fleck after a loss by the Golden Gophers. The over has hit in these games by an average of 7 points.
· The total has gone under in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road. Minnesota is also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 against Big Ten West opponents.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· REVENGE. Everyone is talking about Penn State-IU as the marquee revenge game. Poor Penn State claims to have been screwed in their 2020 loss to IU when Michael Penix Jr.’s last ditch effort got him the two point conversion to beat the Nittany Lions. It was objectively close, and I am still not sure I would argue whichever way that call went. However, the real revenge game will be in West Lafayette when the Boilers try to avenge one of the worst offensive pass interference calls in the history of American Football. Sportsbook lined the block to give bettors back money because the call was so universally egregious, that Vegas, yes Vegas, even felt bad. The Minnesota loss shattered the Boilers season and piss-poor play ensued, losing to Nebraska and Rutgers. Now, the Boilers go into this game at 3-1, with a 1-0 record in Big Ten play, sitting tied atop the Big Ten West leaderboard with Iowa.
· Classmates. Brohm and Fleck both entered the Big Ten landscape in 2017. While Brohm got the best of Fleck in 2017, it has been all Fleck since including an all out ass whooping in 2018 by the Gophers. The common theme between the two has been the ability to generate points when going head to head. Almost all of the games between them have gone over.
· QB Controversy. Marve v. Ter Bush. Etling v. Appleby. Blough v. Sindelar. AOC v. Plummer. The QB controversies that have plagued the Boilers for a decade continue to rear their ugly head as Brohm has once again left us in the dark about which QB will be starting. I cannot see a world where Plummer starts. I like Jack, I do not think he has been bad, but two straight pulls for AOC, and especially after the touchdown to beat Illinois, and it is hard to make a case AOC does not deserve the job. How will this change the Purdue offense? I am not sure. I expect a more aggressive approach. Minnesota is not dumb, and I expect them to prepare for both, with an emphasis on AOC.
· Injuries. Both teams enter the game banged up. Minnesota is without their best player in Mo Ibrahim, while the Boilers could be without a whole slew of guys including Bell, King, Durham, Mitchell, and others. My gut tells me Bell plays, but injuries will have a massive impact here, and it is too bad both teams cannot go in healthy.
· Homecoming, welcome back! For the first time since 2019, Purdue will host homecoming again. If you remember in 2019, Purdue unveiled new uniforms and absolutely dog walked Maryland to the tune of Jack Plummer looking like the next cradle member. On Homecoming 2018, the Boilers put up arguably their best defensive performance under Nick Holt, shutting down all-america (and now Packer) A.J. Dillon. The Boilers won easy, thanks to some Rondale magic, 30-13.
· Weather once again, looks incredible. Mid 70’s with almost zero chance of rain in the forecast.
· In this week’s addition of: “How the **** is he still eligible?”: Tanner Morgan. Graduate man, come on.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Good, but not great, sample size for bets so far. We are seeing a 6% sharp advantage on Purdue with 52% of the tickets, but 58% of the money on Purdue. This implies that there is some sharp money flowing in on Purdue at the number. The sample size for the O/U is much smaller, justifying the large difference between bet and money percentages. While the majority of bets are clearly on the under, one bettor has made a very large bet on the over. The number 2.5 concerns me. This is a common Vegas trick, and I want to revisit the gambling term known as “the hook.” The hook represents the .5 that can be the difference between and outright win or loss by a gambler. Vegas can use the hook to really influence gambler decision making. For example, it is very easy to see 2.5 and think, well the Boilers just need to win by a field goal! Then a missed extra point later or a wanky two point conversion later and the Boilers win by two, losing the spread by the hook. I would field better with this being 3.5, as it would likely bring it bets on Minnesota. EDGE: Purdue spread, Over.
Trends: Brohm reverted back to his trendline as the Boilers failed to cover as a double digit favorite. The most glaring trends seem to be the over hitting in Minnesota games after a loss and Brohm’s ATS record when Purdue has equal rest. Again, the trends have been dicey this year and quite frankly unreliable. A purely macro trend based pick would ultimately lead you to Minnesota to cover and the game to go under. On a micro level, Brohm has been good as a favorite this year, and the under cannot stop hitting for Purdue. One key aspect about over/under totals for Brohm coached Purdue teams, Brohm’s reputation is well known. He is considered to be an offensive guru and that is his national reputation. As a result a lot of times the under has inherent value, since the public is so quick to jump on a Brohm under. This Purdue defense is putting a stop to that as the under has hit in every game this year. The defense may finally meet its match this week when the Minnesota O-Line rolls into town. Vegas seems to have a knack for waiting on a bettor to exhaust his preconceived notion (I.E. Brohm is an over guy) and when they have finally given up hope and bet an under, the over will hit. However, trends are trends and we must try to read them accordingly. EDGE: Minnesota +2.5, Under.
Situation: What a wild situational spot we find these teams in. As I walked out of Ross-Ade Saturday night, you would have thought Purdue had lost the game by 20. Purdue's offense looked anemic as the Boilers got into the endzone once the entire game. Purdue failed to cover against a bad Illinois team and a QB battle emerging before our eyes, again. Minnesota, on the other hand, lost outright as a 31 point favorite to Bowling Green. Yes, you read that correctly. A week after blanking Colorado, the Gophers lose to Bowling Green as a massive favorite. The public view is obviously going to be more influenced by the team who lost to a MAC Squad. This leads us to a little bit of concern, how is the spread only 2.5 points? Shouldn’t Purdue be higher? There are a couple analytical points to discuss. On one hand, Purdue did not look good either, so is 2.5 really that shocking? Minnesota has been Jekyll and Hyde all year with some very odd box scores. Maybe PJ Fleck still has a soft spot for the MAC and that is why Minnesota has struggled against Miami OH and Bowling Green. Minnesota will still get up for big games. That is how Fleck manages. Neither of these programs are at a place to really garner national attention, so it is not outside the realm of possibility that a situational stance here is a hard overvalue of its importance. I would still expect there to be more overreaction to Minnesota only being a 2.5 dog. Purdue’s defense looks awesome, their offense cannot score, and Minnesota is addicted to running the ball. Every factor screams “TAKE THE UNDER” from the top of the nearest Culvers, so when the factors zig, the situational spot zags. EDGE: Minnesota and the Over.
Total Analysis: The true art and skill of analytical gambling is finding which factors will dictate any given week. It is essentially a weekly game of tug of war, with each statistic, number and factor pulling to force your decision. The biggest difference for me, is the presence of David Bell. While the offense still has playmakers absent Bell, there is not a consistent, reliable go to. There are plenty of playmakers, Milton Wright is a great example, who can make really good plays for you, but they are not consistent. David Bell is Mr. Consistency. If you put the ball in a place where he has a chance to get it, he will. That is a luxury that most college QBs do not, nor will ever, have. I believe he will play. The Minnesota secondary has been shaky, very shaky. These teams both do best, what the other does not. Minnesota has been fantastic running the ball, even with their all american hurt, and the Minnesota D has done a great job stopping the run. Purdue cannot even imagine what running the ball successfully looks like. However, will Bell, they have shown signs of life throwing the ball. The defense has been very good in the passing game, but has shown struggles in run stopping. The numbers tell me there is some sharp value on Purdue. I like the over from a numbers standpoint, seeing as so many people like the under. Purdue’s offense has to wake up. Jeff Brohm is too talented for it not to. IF Minnesota wins this game, I feel confident in saying it will be due to the offense’s ability to not score points. The trends are relatively even, with the hypothetical tug of war being very close. Brohm as a favorite is always worrisome, but the Boilers can score points at home. Situationally, I worry that this number is inflated due to Vegas’ assumption that the public will fade Minnesota.
Prediction: 27-24 Boilers. I am skeptical taking Brohm as a favorite, but this is a revenge game for Purdue. This may be a foolish double down, but the Boilers have too much talent offensively to continue to struggle. Minnesota is going to run the ball and chew clock, so possessions will be at a premium. I see Minnesota playing deep coverage with a focus on Bell, and forcing Purdue to go underneath and be patient. The film will show Purdue has struggled when teams take away the big play against Purdue. AOC will need to be precise as the Boilers will need to string some drives together. King and Bell both being back could potentially jump start this offense, and a Boiler lead early could force Tanner Morgan to make plays to keep Minnesota in the game. If Minnesota gets going early on the ground, it could be a long night for the Boilers.
Official Plays (3-5 on Season): Purdue -2.5, Over 47.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-3): This column was great last year, and has been a must fade so far. With that being said, this week I am plugging my nose and taking Wisconsin again. The Badgers host undefeated Michigan and are FAVORITES by 1.5 points. Wisconsin has owned Michigan as of late and I think Michigan’s easy schedule has caused this line to be inflated. Give me the Badgers.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against Minnesota meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or Minnesota +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the Minnesota spread, the Golden Gophers would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Minnesota by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Minnesota has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
