I am much more confident predicting a top 3 finish in the BIG since it is determined by a large number of games. The NCAA's is a single game crap-shoot. Lucky match-ups, hot shooting teams, your team gets the flu, the atmospheric pressure is wrong, etc. etc.
Talent is the price of admission to the NCAA's. That's all it gets you. The rest is up to random processes. A guard makes an incredible save in the back court, throws a half-court length pass to a guy who rises up with the catch to hit a three-point shot to tie the game. How many times can that happen? How can you predict it? That single play is the difference between an elite-eight and a final-four. Random. I'd like to think we have enough talent to make the NCAA's and get to the Sweet-sixteen level. In theory, we probably have final-four talent, but that achievement will depend on wo we match-up with in the S16 games.