They Say "Money Talks" So Let's Talk
- Thread starter 70boiler
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No disrespect but, it’s absolutely worthless in this case. No one knows how long the country will be shut down. No one knows when the consumer will get back to some normalcy. No one knows how many jobs will be lost.
The weatherman might be more accurate with their forecast than these economists projections this time.
That's likely best case scenario here IMO.
Fixed asset investment for January and February dropped 24.5 per cent from the same period last year. Industrial production was down 13.5 per cent, with automotive output tumbling 46 per cent. Retail sales fell 20.5 per cent, property sales 40 per cent and new property starts were down 45 per cent. Exports contracted 15.9 per cent. Some five million jobs have been lost, with unemployment rising from 5.3 per cent to 6.2 per cent.
Source :: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/wor...rpest-fall-in-almost-50-years-as-coronavirus/
It's no doubt to get worse an China as this pandemic and economic fallout continue to hit their country (big downside about being a net exporter is your economy falls to shit when other countries stop buying).
The country needs a huge New Deal style infrastructure plan before the end of the year. Get all the trades back to work, manufacturers back producing for the bridges and roads that need replaced, and start pushing for more renewable energy infrastructure so we can start preparing to avoid the coming climate crisis. If we're going to bail people out let's do so while making the country better.
Again, you act like Trump knew something but wasn't sharing it with the public.
As the POTUS, his job in these situations it to maintain calm as to not shock the economy or have the citizens acting in a way that could negatively impact society.
He had no idea how bad this would or could be. We still don't. For all we know, this might be the peak. Nobody knows.
But what is known, is that the wrong thing to do would have been POTUS telling the country to prepare for judgement day. Because again, if that sends society into a panic, then he gets blamed for that as well.
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This was only declared a pandemic about 7-10 days ago. Until then, it was few cases globally and not spreading nearly as quickly as some anticipated. POTUS used the information available to his response team and made the right decisions based on that information.
I was reading your figures and considered them to be serious until you went down the road of the coming climate crisis
Pick your poison dude. Are we going to all die from climate change or the coronavirus?
Like I said, you might be better off holing up in your basement and cutting off all sources of communication. In 2 months, poke your head out to see if it's safe.
It was only a few cases globally until 7-10 days ago? I'm not even going to take the time to link the true facts as yours is so freaking wrong. JFC
Shall I quote the conversations between us whenTrump said it was 15 and would be down to zero shortly? We KNOW his experts.......who are all fantastic and the best ever in history and beyond........were NOT saying that.
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Read what I wrote.
The WHO didn't declare CV19 a pandemic until 3/11/20. Only 5 days ago.
So Trump didn't need to worry about it until the WHO declared it a pandemic? Did China do that?
And I read what you said......"Until then, it was few cases globally". You gonna stand by that or just deflect?
You'd think these idiots who were aggressively and trollishly downplaying this crisis weeks ago would perhaps gain a little humility. Instead, they double down and move on to the next lib grievance. These guys suck.
Let's revisit in 14 days and see what you and other economic deniers think then
Moves I made on Monday.
Homemade chicken veggie soup.
Ran for 25 minutes.
Almost made a decision to sell a couple regional bank stocks. Came to my senses and decided instead to buy coffee beans. Yes, coffee beans. Roasted beans. I only had a couple day supply. Sumatra Mandheling and Costa Rican Tarrazu hard bean.
Homemade chicken veggie soup.
Ran for 25 minutes.
Almost made a decision to sell a couple regional bank stocks. Came to my senses and decided instead to buy coffee beans. Yes, coffee beans. Roasted beans. I only had a couple day supply. Sumatra Mandheling and Costa Rican Tarrazu hard bean.
Think about it...negativity breeds the same. You can awaken to the smell of dog shit or the fragrance of Roses....Your choice.
Being positive breeds the same. Pick which you want to do to your friends, family, and those on here ready to jump. My retirement was scheduled....We were going to Italy in Sept/Oct of this year for 21 days. Guess what? We planned three weeks in Oregon for July. Guess what? We planned on being in Florida first two weeks in April. Guess what? I had invested wisely and had this great big ol' nest egg for my retirement...looking at a vacation home in SC. Guess what? We can't go to our favorite places to eat. Guess what?
Not because of the actions of OUR President, but because of a pandemic that he nor his team, nor Pelosi, or Chuckie, or even Adam Schiff started or wanted. (Okay some like the stress it's causing on Trump voters). It came because China failed to report it and how severe it was in their country for six months. Then, at the very same time, the world's largest fashion show was in Milan, Italy, and the Chinese flocked into town to I'd guess...steal a few hot new fashions. The Chinese go home, everyone at that show is now infected along with the city and countryside. There goes my trip to the Ferrari and Ducati and Moto Guzzi museums.
I'm not going to allow this thing to drive me nuts. I've turned off the news...FOX And All...except for the morning report and the evening news on Channel 13 in Indy. I'm not going to let this control my every thought. I know I've lost a ton, but it will come back very quickly...there will be lots of money just waiting to be re-invested.
Bleeder, I'm living my life as much the way I always have in these times, planning a few days away in the Vette and on the bike. Away from the crowds...and with a sack lunch if need be.
Anyone want to guess where the Dow will bottom out?
I know nobody knows, nor can anybody, with any degree of accuracy predict it, but just curious if we have any prognosticators willing to take a shot?
My guess: we still have a ways to go, perhaps another 15% on the downside.
I know nobody knows, nor can anybody, with any degree of accuracy predict it, but just curious if we have any prognosticators willing to take a shot?
My guess: we still have a ways to go, perhaps another 15% on the downside.
I would simply be throwing blind at a dart board on a number but I do think the trouble this will cause the real economy will mean the market moves sideway for a while once it does bottom out, leaving ample time for people to safely get back in. Good news, if you can call it that, is the collapse in energy prices right now could/should help speed up what will be a long recovery.
I’ll go on the record and say that once it bottoms out in 2-3 weeks it rebounds like we’ve never seen before as we approach May
That’s pretty bold, and maybe it happens that way, but I expect this to be a bigger shock to small business than loans can solve. You still need people spending into the economy and I doubt that gets back to normal for some time. Too many will use up whatever savings they have, tax refund checks and whatever credit they have left just to survive.
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in the past, where US was a huge net importer of oil, this would have been true. But since late Obama era, US has been a net exporter, with oil industry employing thousands to millions. Low oil price is not the clear positive for the economy as it used to be. The sweet spot for oil price for the US economy is between $50 - $70 a barrel. Low enough that retail energy prices are not a burden, yet high enough to support US shale oil industry
Do you use a special roaster? Or just the oven? I had done a little research about a year ago. Never pulled the trigger on a roaster. Maybe time to stimulate the economy and buy one.
I store the roasted beans in the freezer, but over time will lose some freshness.
Perhaps you will be right. I don't wish anyone to suffer but I have to admit that I've been waiting for a really good market downturn in order to purchase stocks at bargain basement prices.
Bone....it's all they have left man. They're now pinning their hopes on a near 80 year-old dementia addled career member of the Swamp. How would you like what they've bred?
Nah. I think we've seen almost the bottom. It was time for a correction, but not this way I'd say going forward we'll see more of up and downs every other day or week. Then, when it's calming down, with the end being projected, it's going to jump.
That would seem rather oxymoronic to me...and candidly somewhat offensive. I full well understand the idea of buying low and selling high, but am really not much of a fan of trader versus investor mentality, notwithstanding my own admitted occasional hypocrisy of trading in lieu of investing.
You stay true to your virtuous moral investor mentality. I'm buying as many blue chip stocks that have been gone on a downward spiral due to the panic over the coronavirus. The earlier I can retire the better since I'd much rather be golfing than working.
Actually started out with a popcorn popper I modified to bypass the governor. As you might imagine, not the longest lifespan. Lol
I roasted frequently enough to justify buying a dedicated roaster from Sweet Maria's. It was an older model of one of their Fresh Roasters, don't recall if it was as pricey as these: https://www.sweetmarias.com/roasting/air-roasters/freshroast.html
I basically buy 5lbs of unroasted beans from them every 3-4 months (~$45, and typically East Africa origin, just because I find myself enjoying that region the most) and that's roughly all of the coffee money I spend nowadays. I'd subjectively guess that I enjoy my home roasted beans about ~85% as much as local small batch coffee roasters, and I'm more than happy with that given how much more incremental cost I'd have with purchasing their roasted beans. Also, that difference is further offset because 1) I thoroughly enjoy the roasting ritual and 2) I get a kick out of grinding/brewing/drinking my own roasted beans. Perhaps similar to the incremental enjoyment someone gets from eating their own garden-grown veggies vs premium organic ones bought from Whole Foods.
Anyway, fun and not super expensive or time-consuming hobby (like homebrewing beer, my other one lol). Highly recommend it!
Then don't start with the self serving "I don't wish anyone to suffer" and at least be honest and admit that you don't give a shit.
Should have you and the censorship bureau review my posts before I post them? If you're implying that I don't give a shit about people who go along with all of the other sheep and sell off their stocks at a loss, then you would be correct. If you are trying to imply that I don't give a shit about people who are suffering from the coronavirus, then you can go straight to hell.
My biggest concern in terms of shock to the market is if/when companies have to start announcing layoffs. Only because the market really seems to react to employment numbers, I think any uptick in unemployment is going to send stocks down again.
Granted, all this is short term and once this virus thing goes away, it's back to business.
The question is, where's the bottom?
It has little to do with sheep and significantly more to do with algorithmic trading and institutional investors, duhhh...
Thanks. Did a little web surfing earlier, found this place. I may have to try roasting some beans.
Futures down big again. I made a comment after the market closed on Friday that Congress, meaning House and Senate, needed to get the stimulus/relief package approved or the market would tumble on Monday. We saw the results.
Tuesday more talk of relief, market responds. Now Wed morning, prob get slammed again. Washington needs to act fast, do it right, get bills for President Trump to sign and we will see the market settle down and probably start to rise.
Tuesday more talk of relief, market responds. Now Wed morning, prob get slammed again. Washington needs to act fast, do it right, get bills for President Trump to sign and we will see the market settle down and probably start to rise.
I would not be surprised to see the Markets recover considerably faster than the overall economy.
