They Say "Money Talks" So Let's Talk

[70boiler]

While this is OT, I thought this is as good of a place as any to mention this.
Today I saw that there are approximately 200,000 confirmed Covid-19 cases world wide and over 8,000 deaths. It dawned on me that the odds of dying from Covid-19 once a person is essentially symptomatic is about the same as drawing a natural Black Jack 21 in a single deck game (4.8%).
I think that our leaders could really do a better job of conveying the actual seriousness of the disease with a bit more clarity with real world type figures.

 

[70boiler]

Following today's Market Circuit Breaker employment, upon reopening the Dow has dipped below its position when Pres. Trump took office.

 

[BleedinGold]

Following today's Market Circuit Breaker employment, upon reopening the Dow has dipped below its position when Pres. Trump took office.

It won't stop there either. This may wipe out a decade or more of market growth. It will recover, but it's going to be brutal.

I tried to raise the alarms early on Monday but got shouted down by a few.

It hasn't even begun yet, and we already have Treasury Secratary Mnuchin talking about 20% unemployment. For the record 2008 unemployment hit 13.2%. Great Depression unemployment hit 24.9%

If our governmental leaders don't hurry we're going to blow right past 2008 and we'll be looking more like the Great Depression.

The big problem is that the productivity issue can't be solved for weeks/months. If people go back to work the pandemic continues.

We have to self-isolate now. All of us. The entire country should be locked down for 2-3 weeks minimum.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

It won't stop there either. This may wipe out a decade or more of market growth. It will recover, but it's going to be brutal.

I tried to raise the alarms early on Monday but got shouted down by a few.

It hasn't even begun yet, and we already have Treasury Secratary Mnuchin talking about 20% unemployment. For the record 2008 unemployment hit 13.2%. Great Depression unemployment hit 24.9%

If our governmental leaders don't hurry we're going to blow right past 2008 and we'll be looking more like the Great Depression.

The big problem is that the productivity issue can't be solved for weeks/months. If people go back to work the pandemic continues.

We have to self-isolate now. All of us. The entire country should be locked down for 2-3 weeks minimum.

You may get your wish. You going to be happy then? The sky is falling the sky is falling.

 

[BleedinGold]

You may get your wish. You going to be happy then? The sky is falling the sky is falling.

Its not my wish. I could have the faucets turned off today and make it multiple years with no income. I am worried for my sister and her family. For my cousins and their families. For my friends and their families. And for my fellow Americans and their families.

40% of America only has less than $400 saved for emergencies. Wanna guess how fast that's gone in a time like this?

I'm trying to shake you ostriches all awake so you can see whats about to happen and either a) make preparations for it, if needed; and b) warn your loved ones so they do the same.

I started talking about this a week or so ago, and I raised the alarms and shouted from the rooftops on Monday. I'd rather do that and be labeled a crazy doomsdayer than sit around and just wait and watch so many suffer. But I guess that's why I'm classified as a "crazy liberal" these days.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Its not my wish. I could have the faucets turned off today and make it multiple years with no income. I am worried for my sister and her family. For my cousins and their families. For my friends and their families. And for my fellow Americans and their families.

40% of America only has less than $400 saved for emergencies. Wanna guess how fast that's gone in a time like this?

I'm trying to shake you ostriches all awake so you can see whats about to happen and either a) make preparations for it, if needed; and b) warn your loved ones so they do the same.

I started talking about this a week or so ago, and I raised the alarms and shouted from the rooftops on Monday. I'd rather do that and be labeled a crazy doomsdayer than sit around and just wait and watch so many suffer. But I guess that's why I'm classified as a "crazy liberal" these days.

Bleeder...a question first. If you were scheduled for a haircut tomorrow would you go to your barber? Second, we're all aware of what this is and can do. We're cautious, careful, and out of hand cream where we have washed our hands so many times.

 

[70boiler]

Italy had 475 deaths today raising the total to nearly 3,000 from 36,000 cases. That's about 2x the mortality rate worldwide. Bad news.

 

[Bethboilerfan]

Italy had 475 deaths today raising the total to nearly 3,000 from 36,000 cases. That's about 2x the mortality rate worldwide. Bad news.

Italy has the second oldest population on earth, lives in close proximity to other people, and has older relatives living in homes with family so I am not too surprised

 

[bonefish1]

Have an appt with my FA this morning. Now's the time to buy.

Let us know what he/she thinks.

 

[bonefish1]

Its not my wish. I could have the faucets turned off today and make it multiple years with no income. I am worried for my sister and her family. For my cousins and their families. For my friends and their families. And for my fellow Americans and their families.

40% of America only has less than $400 saved for emergencies. Wanna guess how fast that's gone in a time like this?

I'm trying to shake you ostriches all awake so you can see whats about to happen and either a) make preparations for it, if needed; and b) warn your loved ones so they do the same.

I started talking about this a week or so ago, and I raised the alarms and shouted from the rooftops on Monday. I'd rather do that and be labeled a crazy doomsdayer than sit around and just wait and watch so many suffer. But I guess that's why I'm classified as a "crazy liberal" these days.

Not sure you should be so self congratulatory about your Monday predictions. We were already down almost 30% at that point.
Most of us on here who have been talking about the market (70, Twin, and some others) have been discussing this for over a month. It's just that none of us knew where it was going and what the significant impact was going to be.
I'll be the first to admit that I underestimated the impact on the market and economy.
But, if you anyone (perhaps some people did, but not many) knew this was going to happen to this extent, they would have been shorting the entire market and would be sitting on piles of cash right now.
If you still think we've got another 5,000 pts to go on the downside of the Dow, I'm interested to hear if you plan on taking advantage of that and how.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Let us know what he/she thinks.

Told me to wait until late today. He and I both believe it will go lower today and then begin a short term rise.

Looking at some fringe pharmceutical companies. Looking at Amazon and Apple if the drop more today.

 

[bonefish1]

Told me to wait until late today. He and I both believe it will go lower today and then begin a short term rise.

Looking at some fringe pharmceutical companies. Looking at Amazon and Apple if the drop more today.

I think that despite this govt stimulus package, which is a very short term bandaid (not trying to be overly cynical, but how far does $1K stretch?), we're going to see layoffs from major companies and once those start occurring, we're going to see more sell off.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I think that despite this govt stimulus package, which is a very short term bandaid (not trying to be overly cynical, but how far does $1K stretch?), we're going to see layoffs from major companies and once those start occurring, we're going to see more sell off.

We might, but the perceived image of a bailout will spur the market for at least a few days. JMO

 

[70boiler]

We might, but the perceived image of a bailout will spur the market for at least a few days. JMO

I'm not sure that I agree. In current times up to date info, accurate or not, is so readily available that a band aid is recognized as a band aid. Even if it were $2000 / head payment, I don't view investors being awed, particularly when Mnuchin is advising leaders to be prepared for 20% unemployment rates. Hope that's wrong.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I'm not sure that I agree. In current times up to date info, accurate or not, is so readily available that a band aid is recognized as a band aid. Even if it were $2000 / head payment, I don't view investors being awed, particularly when Mnuchin is advising leaders to be prepared for 20% unemployment rates. Hope that's wrong.

while we could hit that number, I also believe that he may be hitting a high estimate for positive positioning later. They all do it.

 

[70boiler]

while we could hit that number, I also believe that he may be hitting a high estimate for positive positioning later. They all do it.

The problem isn't really whether that level is actually realized but the uncertainty and concern that is conveyed by the comment, together with no real success to date in stemming the roller coastering. That is what has, and will continue to affect the Markets. Until institutional investors are comfortable that stability exists and expectations are well founded I look for erratic Markets and no real recovery, nor even multiday stability. Again, I hope that I am just being overly pessimistic.

 

[M51]

Futures up this morning. Could this be the first back to back up days for the market in what, 3 weeks?

Earnings for some companies I posted earlier this week.

FedEx - revenues up, earnings pretty much in line. Company did not provide 2020 guidance. Stock price has soared since earnings release.

Darden Restaurants - earnings and revenue beat expectations. Suspended dividend. No guidance. Announced they will continue to pay hourly employees.

Cintas - beat earnings and revenue

General Mills - slight miss on revenue, .01 earnings beat. They did up 2020 growth to about 6-8%. Prior guidance was about 3-5%.

Overall good to see the 4-5 weeks of the CV crisis for the last part of earnings period did not have a huge impact for these companies.

I only have a handful of FedEx stock. Do not own any of the other companies.

Next big earnings reporting starts early April. Those companies would have 6-8 weeks of the CV crisis most likely impacting earnings.

 

[SKYDOG]

Futures up this morning. Could this be the first back to back up days for the market in what, 3 weeks?

Earnings for some companies I posted earlier this week.

FedEx - revenues up, earnings pretty much in line. Company did not provide 2020 guidance. Stock price has soared since earnings release.

Darden Restaurants - earnings and revenue beat expectations. Suspended dividend. No guidance. Announced they will continue to pay hourly employees.

Cintas - beat earnings and revenue

General Mills - slight miss on revenue, .01 earnings beat. They did up 2020 growth to about 6-8%. Prior guidance was about 3-5%.

Overall good to see the 4-5 weeks of the CV crisis for the last part of earnings period did not have a huge impact for these companies.

I only have a handful of FedEx stock. Do not own any of the other companies.

Next big earnings reporting starts early April. Those companies would have 6-8 weeks of the CV crisis most likely impacting earnings.

It should be a good day today as option rebalancing is required today. Managers will be forced to buy. Looking ahead Monday hopefully the big boys won’t press the shorts. A lot of positions still need to be unwound. Way to much leverage allowed in the system for my liking. Need to reestablish the uptick rule to slow short sale volatility. SEC needs to implement this now to allow the market to work in the manner it’s intended to.

 

[70boiler]

Amazon indicates it is hiring 100,000 workers (they start at about $18/hr) demonstrating that they are betting on a continued upsurge of online buying. That seems to me to be an assertion that management firmly believes traditional retail will trend flat or down, whether Covid-19 related or just changing consumer preferences.

 

[M51]

Back from the morning run. Local freight train had every flatbed double stacked with containers. Except one, just had a single container. Prob 75 flatbeds. Don’t know if containers were full and don’t know if RR’s move empty containers.

Moving the goods.

 

[70boiler]

I didn't get the best of vibes from the parts that I saw of today's Covid-19 press gaggle.

 

[PA Boilermakers]

I didn't get the best of vibes from the parts that I saw of today's Covid-19 press gaggle.

I think that sending 500 billion dollars out of the treasury (more national debt) to most of us is a really terrible idea. The vast majority of us will not be affected by this economically in the sense that we won't be able to eat, pay rent/mortgage, car payments, etc. I would have gone with $2,000/month directly to those who actually are out of work and have it processed through the unemployment compensation systems that already exist in the states. Much easier to administer and allows it to be amended as necessary as we make it through this crisis.

I can remember back 30 or so years ago when I had just graduated and living paycheck to paycheck. Even back then a $1,200 check would have been just a bandaid and after living on credit cards it would have taken me years to claw my way back out of debt from something like this.

 

[SKYDOG]

It should be a good day today as option rebalancing is required today. Managers will be forced to buy. Looking ahead Monday hopefully the big boys won’t press the shorts. A lot of positions still need to be unwound. Way to much leverage allowed in the system for my liking. Need to reestablish the uptick rule to slow short sale volatility. SEC needs to implement this now to allow the market to work in the manner it’s intended to.

Well so much for being a good day. Nothing is working in the markets like it used to. The bids on stocks are wide. Checked a few times yesterday on Home Depot and the bid ask spread was .25 cents. The same on a few other highly traded stocks when normally it’s a couple cents.

Got killed again yesterday as I closed out my SP500 short Thursday and bought more for the bump on Friday. Never lost money so fast since saying I do 45 years ago.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Well so much for being a good day. Nothing is working in the markets like it used to. The bids on stocks are wide. Checked a few times yesterday on Home Depot and the bid ask spread was .25 cents. The same on a few other highly traded stocks when normally it’s a couple cents.

Got killed again yesterday as I closed out my SP500 short Thursday and bought more for the bump on Friday. Never lost money so fast since saying I do 45 years ago.

Yeah, but I'm guessing the sex from that I do was a lot better than the sex you had this week.

 

[70boiler]

This isn't exactly what I was hoping to read over coffee this morning, albeit not being shocked to see it.
WAPO

 

[70boiler]

I think we could all do with a bit more clarity such as here -

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I think we could all do with a bit more clarity such as here -

View embedded media

Spreading more panic and fear.

 

[70boiler]

Spreading more panic and fear.

Yes, clearly. I, too, was disappointed that she didn't say we should disregard the tale of Italy with its current mortality rate of 8.5% of all positive cases. Nothing to see here, move along now...

 

[70boiler]

Spreading more panic and fear.

The dichotomy of the Federal Government's reaction amazes me. We are given the positive approach from the President regularly, but my family is informed that as the result of Covid-19 that families will not be allowed to attend my grandson's USMC boot camp graduation in San Diego and that the normal 10 day leave available to new Marines is rescinded and they will report directly to Pendleton for the next training segment.
Oh, those panicky and fearful Marine generals...

 

[TwinDegrees2]

The dichotomy of the Federal Government's reaction amazes me. We are given the positive approach from the President regularly, but my family is informed that as the result of Covid-19 that families will not be allowed to attend my grandson's USMC boot camp graduation in San Diego and that the normal 10 day leave available to new Marines is rescinded and they will report directly to Pendleton for the next training segment.
Oh, those panicky and fearful Marine generals...

Really? No leave after Boot? Strange times create strange orders. God's blessings on your son for his service.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

Yes, clearly. I, too, was disappointed that she didn't say we should disregard the tale of Italy with its current mortality rate of 8.5% of all positive cases. Nothing to see here, move along now...

Italy is a mess because of such an older population and a huge Chinese presence who brought it to Italy. Had the trip for October all planned, was making reservations.....but not now. I wonder if Italy may be the last pocket of this virus when the rest of the world is pretty much free of it.

 

[M51]

“I think that I will start a thread more directed at the fiscal side rather than the political side of life. With the amount of politics "discussed" on most threads I find that I miss some of the financial things until they are old news. I realize people can hijack anything but figure that it is well worth a try.”

Time to get back to the goal of this thread. Post CV opinions in any of the 10,000 existing threads for trashing Trump, Dems, Republicans, etc.

 

[Bethboilerfan]

The dichotomy of the Federal Government's reaction amazes me. We are given the positive approach from the President regularly, but my family is informed that as the result of Covid-19 that families will not be allowed to attend my grandson's USMC boot camp graduation in San Diego and that the normal 10 day leave available to new Marines is rescinded and they will report directly to Pendleton for the next training segment.
Oh, those panicky and fearful Marine generals...

70boiler. I am truly saddened that you and your son and family will miss this important milestone. Congratulations to you and your son!

 

[70boiler]

“I think that I will start a thread more directed at the fiscal side rather than the political side of life. With the amount of politics "discussed" on most threads I find that I miss some of the financial things until they are old news. I realize people can hijack anything but figure that it is well worth a try.”

Time to get back to the goal of this thread. Post CV opinions in any of the 10,000 existing threads for trashing Trump, Dems, Republicans, etc.

That will be an interesting thread. I look forward to seeing how a rational discussion of the US and world economy devoid of Covid-19 effects would proceed.

 

[70boiler]

70boiler. I am truly saddened that you and your son and family will miss this important milestone. Congratulations to you and your son!

LOL...how sexist ... my daughter is his mother - lmao
Thnx. I appreciate your, and others, thoughts.

 

[70boiler]

Uh-oh.
The following is an excerpt from Seeking Alpha this morning -
Analysts at Goldman Sachs now expect U.S. growth to contract 24% in the second quarter, which would mark by far the largest quarterly drop in GDP on record.

 

[70boiler]

And for those of you who lean toward the technical market analysis side of things, an article in Market Watch notes -
A bearish “death cross” pattern has appeared in the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s chart for the first time in over a year, which is a warning of further losses in the near term.

 

[M51]

That will be an interesting thread. I look forward to seeing how a rational discussion of the US and world economy devoid of Covid-19 effects would proceed.

Just reposting your original goal for this thread. Just don’t want to see the “CV only opinions” take over the thread.

 

[Bethboilerfan]

LOL...how sexist ... my daughter is his mother - lmao
Thnx. I appreciate your, and others, thoughts.

Thought it was 70boiler Jr. Did not realize it was your grandson! Congratulations to him and to your daughter as well

 

[PA Boilermakers]

Uh-oh.
The following is an excerpt from Seeking Alpha this morning -
Analysts at Goldman Sachs now expect U.S. growth to contract 24% in the second quarter, which would mark by far the largest quarterly drop in GDP on record.

True, but they're also projecting the S&P to be right back nearly where it started the freefall from by the end of the year. Classic V shape recovery.