Markets are still waiting for Congress to do their thing. The 1300 point open is barely holding. Treasuries have spiked up in last couple weeks. Treasuries and some bonds only bright areas in my portfolio.
They Say "Money Talks" So Let's Talk
- Thread starter 70boiler
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It was a very good last hour for everyone’s retirement or investment portfolio. President Trump and private industry worked together to find solutions to difficult issues. Market responded very well to the press conf.
Waiting for the president’s follow up to additional things that he planned on announcing after the press conf.
Monday is a crucial follow up day for the markets. Does not have to go up a thousand points, flat is ok. Either one can happen if Congress passes a stimulus package. No package and the market could tank again. Still have some rough days ahead.
Helpful solutions to combat Coronavirus is coming out very fast. Saw on Fox Business news that Johns Hopkins is working to get plasma based anti-bodies fast tracked for approval. Not a vaccine, help fight off the virus. Think China provided some info to help its that research.
It certainly will be nice if this assessment is correct -
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...lyst-who-called-the-2018-rout-says-2020-03-13
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/w...lyst-who-called-the-2018-rout-says-2020-03-13
It would be nice however, Wilson has not been very accurate in his market forecasts for awhile.
Fed cuts fed funds rate to zero, announces big quantitative easing, S&P futures respond with a meh.
my concern is that even though this cv crisis will be a short term blip, there’s a very good chance of layoffs and unemployment going up. That won’t be well received by the markets as the impact on consumer spending will be felt.
I think even with the fed monetary and fiscal moves, we won’t see a rebound until people start traveling, spending discretionary income, etc.
Just my Debbie downer opinion, but consumer spending has been driving the economy, and I think the stock market is still pricing in how bad the decrease in consumer spending will be. Certain sectors are already getting hurt, and others will follow. Layoffs are imminent, and some of these jobs won’t come back. How many quarters of shitty GDP are we looking at? My own, uneducated opinion is at least 3 rough quarters for the economy
I hope that my lack of optimism is misplaced, but I suspect an ugly period in the offing... I'm not seeing much policy anywhere to rebuff it...
So, the things were definitely interesting this weekend.
First Trump celebrated "his" Friday rebound with an autographed picture of the spike to all of his followers. Smooth, and definitely shows where his head is at.
Then we got a deal with Congress and the WHI that was passed by the House at 12:30am. Hopefully that will be passed by the Senate early this week (see today or tomorrow).
Then yesterday, the orangutan spoke again and thought he was doing a great job.
The Fed cut the rate to near zero ... on a Sunday and predictably the markets weren't as impressed as our dear leader felt they would be.
Dow Futures are down 4.5%. S&P already down 9.5%. I'm expecting that trading will be halted almost immediately once the market opens as we race towards another day of steep losses.
i'm staying out of the market for the long run right now. We are just starting to scratch the surface of this. A recession in my mind is guaranteed and now it's just whether or not we reach a depression and for the first time I'm thinking soup line, style Great Depression has a realistic % chance of happening.
Buckle up America. Our lives are about to change.
First Trump celebrated "his" Friday rebound with an autographed picture of the spike to all of his followers. Smooth, and definitely shows where his head is at.
Then we got a deal with Congress and the WHI that was passed by the House at 12:30am. Hopefully that will be passed by the Senate early this week (see today or tomorrow).
Then yesterday, the orangutan spoke again and thought he was doing a great job.
The Fed cut the rate to near zero ... on a Sunday and predictably the markets weren't as impressed as our dear leader felt they would be.
Dow Futures are down 4.5%. S&P already down 9.5%. I'm expecting that trading will be halted almost immediately once the market opens as we race towards another day of steep losses.
i'm staying out of the market for the long run right now. We are just starting to scratch the surface of this. A recession in my mind is guaranteed and now it's just whether or not we reach a depression and for the first time I'm thinking soup line, style Great Depression has a realistic % chance of happening.
Buckle up America. Our lives are about to change.
That autographed spike is so Trump. Narcissistic, clueless, worthless.
I'm normally a very optimistic investor, but in this situation, there's just too many arrows pointing in the wrong direction. I really hate to be involved in the selloff, but I think we could be in for 2 rough qtrs of negative GDP...BUT, I'm very confident that when things get back to normal (I'm not buying into the opinion from some that there will be permanent impacts), the market will take off again and it'll be roaring. People got way too used to a bull market for 12 years.
Am I trying to time the market? Unfortunately, yes. I moved a lot of money into cash, but I also made a significant bet on TAIL.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TAIL?p=TAIL&.tsrc=fin-srch
When to get back in? Not sure. But let's all keep discussing, throwing some ideas around and see if we can help each other financially.
I'm riding it just as I have been. Might take some cash and put into different funds. Looking to make small buys that will grow in time.
So, the things were definitely interesting this weekend.
First Trump celebrated "his" Friday rebound with an autographed picture of the spike to all of his followers. Smooth, and definitely shows where his head is at.
Then we got a deal with Congress and the WHI that was passed by the House at 12:30am. Hopefully that will be passed by the Senate early this week (see today or tomorrow).
Then yesterday, the orangutan spoke again and thought he was doing a great job.
The Fed cut the rate to near zero ... on a Sunday and predictably the markets weren't as impressed as our dear leader felt they would be.
Dow Futures are down 4.5%. S&P already down 9.5%. I'm expecting that trading will be halted almost immediately once the market opens as we race towards another day of steep losses.
i'm staying out of the market for the long run right now. We are just starting to scratch the surface of this. A recession in my mind is guaranteed and now it's just whether or not we reach a depression and for the first time I'm thinking soup line, style Great Depression has a realistic % chance of happening.
Buckle up America. Our lives are about to change.
First, don't be a d-bag. This is one of the few threads on the board where people of various political persuasion have had civil conversation and tried to help each other out.
Second, while I think it's going to be rough, I don't think the soup line analogy will come into play. China already has a handle on CV, the US will to. It'll just take a little time and the shock to the economy will work it's way through as well.
I don't disagree with your position of moving to cash, but I do think that believing a that this will have permanent life changing impacts is a little fearful.
Okay everyone, make sure your safety bar is secured, keep your hands and feet inside the ride at all times
I didn't say anything about permanent. The great depression wasn't permanent. It was long lasting though. And that's where we are headed right now.
You're talking about shutting down entire industries. Schools, Restaurants, Churches, etc. All of that has HUGE ripple effects.
This week will just be the start of the job losses. There will be massive job losses in the next 4 weeks. Why? Because the end of this is totally unknown. If we could say "this is just 4 weeks" people could plan. If we could say this is just "6 weeks" people could plan. Now we are hearing 20 weeks, 6 months, etc. That uncertainty means businesses are going to have to take drastic steps to not lose the ship.
I have a meeting today at noon PST in which I expect to hear that 80% (400 ppl) are going to be laid off. That company is a huge partner of ours in one of my company's. If that happens, we are almost certainly laying off 2/3rds of our sister company immediately. Then as for my restaurant. We'll have to lay off pretty much the entire company save a couple of kitchen staff (assuming we get enough take out / delivery orders to support them). The residential real estate photography business probably has maybe 30-90 days before we have to make any adjustments but the busy season is upon us and it will be interesting to see how the real estate market plays out over the next quarter. Most of our photogs are 1099s there so there won't be any layoffs, just lack of consistent work for them to be paid anything worthwhile.
I'm supposed to fly out to Hawaii this coming Sunday, but I doubt I make that trip as I don't want to get stuck out there separated from my family if/when they start to shut down domestic air travel -- so many other businesses have already voluntarily shut down all business related travel. Just one more industry with huge ripple effects coming.
You can think it's being fearful (i'm not usually that mindset ... I am usually an abundance mindset person all the way), but I'm also realistic and am fortunate to have many business connections with other business owners and am able to see the immediate impacts of what is occurring to those businesses right now. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to connect the dots from there.
From an optimistic view, we can look at China, where new infections are down drastically. Granted, new cases are still on the rise in most of the rest of the world, but if the most densely populated country on the planet can get control of this, so will the rest. Plus, (and I'm not minimizing the fatalities) the cure rate is VERY high. It's not a death sentence for 99% of those who contract it. Yes, it's bad if you have underlying conditions, but so is catching the flu.
The big thing going for China is they were able to lock down their entire economy for weeks. And the economy is in shambles there now. That damage is going to out last the virus's toll IMO.
Read these articles from the last 24 hours (this is another reason the market is collapsing this morning)
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-...used-dramatic-collapse-chinas-economy-warning
https://qz.com/1818960/china-economy-set-to-see-first-contraction-since-1989/
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/china-economy-coronavirus/index.html
If you're looking for China for comfort you're likely to be let down.
Best case scenario we emulate their economic collapse IMO. Worst case is much much worse.
Anyone paying attention? We're already down 2500 points on the Dow.
You all may think I'm fearful or crazy. But my opinion is not alone.
You all may think I'm fearful or crazy. But my opinion is not alone.
90% 10 yr treasuries, correct? Up 5-6% today, should be a safe short term parking place.
I’m going to be looking at some quarterly reports throughout the week. FedEx reports Tuesday, General Mills on Wed. Cintas and Darden Restaurants on Thursday.
Staying with my plan to sit tight. Put a little new money into fixed assets. Prob allow some upcoming dividends to sit as cash.
And go out for a run in a couple hours.
Staying with my plan to sit tight. Put a little new money into fixed assets. Prob allow some upcoming dividends to sit as cash.
And go out for a run in a couple hours.
TAIL would seem to me to be a pretty rational insurance policy offset to the likely continued downtrend. As always the issue is foreseeing the future, unfortunately normal rationality doesn't seem to be overly operative at the moment...lol, I am sure that's a shocking assessment tic
Lol. I'd admit I'm not feeling optimistic today. Maybe it's the fact that I know I'm going to have to be involved personally notifying 50 families from my companies this week that their about to lose a large portion (or all) of their family's income. Admittingly that doesn't put me in the most joyous of moods.
I'm grateful I have the resources to get through this. I know many of my friends and some of my family do not.
I'm imagining some/many on this board don't either.
I'd have to ask you what does "doomsday" look like for you? Do you have to wait til the asteroid hits the planet or can we start calling it when we see the asteroid and have calculated its path of collision?
https://fox59.com/news/coronavirus/...NOddD15bAL8d4tncIMJ6GWSH6YUmQld-gGVMtvDhYqAI0
Wonder how many of my fellow Boilers/Hoosiers/Cardinals will be impacted by this news.....
@TwinDegrees2 keep your head buried in that bunker on #17 and pretend you have nothing to see. But your community is going to be impacted....
I think you seem to have a more pessimistic attitude about this than a lot of people.
And, I don't think your asteroid analogy is a good one. This is more akin to a hurricane heading towards the coast: The models show a bunch of different paths it could take, it's relative expected strength as it approaches, potential impact at landfall, etc, But, none of that is guaranteed.
People are preparing like CV19 is a Cat 5, and it's looking like it'll have that kind of impact economically in the short term, but it could end up being a Cat 2 in terms of actual health impact on infections and deaths. Those numbers are still relatively low, even though they're expected to rise.
We don't know yet.
Dude, my head isn't buried in a bunker. What I see are folks like you, spreading more panic, more fear, more angst. I'll choose to remain aware, pro-active, and to live my life best I can with what I have.
I'd guess your Hoosiers will be impacted least as McDonald's will still be open and fry pits have to be maintained.
I'm not sure why it surprises me that your clueless thoughts and naivety would carry over to this.
I'm sure in 6 weeks you'll move the goal posts again.
I like your analogy.
One thing to consider is that unlike a hurricane where you can't effect its projected path with a sharpie .... we could have better planned, prepared, etc and we could have altered the path of a pandemic outbreak. We got a terrible start on this (mainly because many didn't want to "induce panic" and instead pretended like nothing was happening ... "just a raincloud" nothing to see here attitude). Now we're taking drastic measures and shutting down the economy to try and stop it, but it may be too little too late.
So now that pandemic is here, and just like with a hurricane .... it isn't the initial winds and storm that kills the most people. Its the surge that comes behind the storm that will wipe out the masses. In this case the storm surge is the economic fallout that is about to happen.
And what I'm saying is start paying attention. That surge is coming. You can ignore it and pretend it isn't, or hope that it isn't ... but it is. The question is just how big that surge will be and how many people will be hurt (financially/physically) or killed (death or homeless).
It's likely the government is going to have to throw out liferafts (aka bailouts), but those will likely be centralized on industries in an effort to save jobs ... and you can be damn sure there won't be enough life rafts for everyone.
Hopefully you and those you care about have their own boats and life preservers. The odds are they are going to need it.
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You sound like you better just hole up in your basement and not come out for a couple of weeks. This will pass, life will return to normal. It'll be a little ugly in the short term, but we'll get there. This is a black swan event.
And for the record, the administration has done everything it could with the knowledge it had.
If drastic measures were implemented 3 weeks ago, causing the markets, etc to react negatively, then the admins opponents would have blamed Trump for overreacting and inciting panic. He was damned either way.
Yeah you're right. Nothing he could have done differently.
Besides keep the experts around him. Not hollow out agencies. Listen to scientists and medical professionals. All of those things would have been a start and would have been helpful ... or as you like to think "not necessary"
What we got was a ban on China air travel and then crickets for 6 weeks. Well not actually crickets. We got "reassuring anecdotes" from our dear leader telling us everything was just fine. The ole "pretend it isn't happening" strategy.
Didn't preparre for testing. Didn't prepare procedures for the TSA and how to handle testing for income passengers. Didn't prepare. Didn't prepare. Didn't prepare.
And yeah I do plan on holing up. I'll be just fine.
I won't be surprised if others here don't turn out as lucky and that bothers me.
QUIT....JUST FRIGGIN' QUIT. EVERY THING ISN'T ABOUT DJT...WE GOT YOUR SHARPIE REFERENCE. You're getting ate up (as are a lot of people) and what Bone has posted is so true. RELAX. WE SHOULD ALL TAKE A BREAK from TV and the talking heads. FOX, CNN, MSNBC...all of them. And yes, maybe we should all take a week away from the internet. We all know it may get worse before it gets better. Probably will.
I don't move goal posts Bleeder. Never have and never will. This is what it is and hopefully we'll all be the better for it. Including you. Remember, if you're not a part of the solution, you're likely to be a part of the problem. How many do you pull into your quagmire with your negativity every day?
I've been on this board for a couple of months now. Ever seen me be negative like this before?
I HOPE i'm being negative. I HOPE I'm wrong. I HOPE everything is going to be just fine.
https://www.latimes.com/travel/stor...sinos-to-close-tuesday-because-of-coronavirus <--- approximately 170,000 employees in Nevada's Casinos. Want a guess how that ripples out through the Nevada economy?
I just HOPE our leaders aren't relying on just "HOPE" either.... based on what we saw from Jan 22 - March 9th .... that was our strategy. Bold moves.
When it comes to a pandemic you have to prepare for the worst.......because the preparation is what flattens the line.
We can't affect how bad a hurricane becomes.......we can affect how bad this virus becomes.
Here’s a little historical tidbit for what it’s worth. Here’s what has happened to the market after it declines 25% from its high. This has happened 7 times since 1950. Bad news, basically flip a coin up to a year out, 50/50 chance the market is up or down. Good news, past that 1 year, average yearly returns are 9.5%. That’s at 3,5,10, all the way out to 20 years. Again these results are based on you getting in at that -25% point
