They Say "Money Talks" So Let's Talk
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This is why I'm a firm believer that they need to make financial literacy required curriculum in 9-12 grades and at least 3 courses for grad requirements for any college degree. Even a basic high school level knowledge of a lot of financial concepts could help as well as prevent some poor decisionmaking when people become adults.
totally agree Bone. They also need a time management course at that level as well.
Earnings season ramps up starting April 20.
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C008-S001-earnings-calendar.html
Many more thru mid-May.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/earnings-dividends
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C008-S001-earnings-calendar.html
Many more thru mid-May.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/earnings-dividends
Bone - nothing regarding your post here rather-
I know that you were partial to AGRX on and off. Received the following this morning in the event that you are looking at Agile again. We all knew this possibility made sense but now that it's being publicized...
Agile Therapeutics: Billion Dollar Buy-Out Is On The Horizon
Good find on Agile. Bottomed out at $1.59 on 3/23 and now hanging around the $3 mark.
I haven't touched anything in my portfolio in about 4+ weeks.
Once I moved to about 90% cash, I've made no moves other than what I've already go set up going into my 401k and ESPP.
I still think we're going to see a W shaped stock market recovery as opposed to the current V shape.
My dumb ass blinked and decided to try and time the market. We'll see if that was the right move or not.
I would like to eventually load up again on some blue chips like Disney, some airlines, hotels, etc.
I grabbed a handful the morning that I posted, held briefly that day and took the easy profit, although I expected it would bump up some more.
I saw one of the cruise lines, I think it was Carnival, was trying to market trips at $28/day, so I could see some activity upcoming in that part of transportation/leisure.
Speaking of dumbasses..
I bought a chunk of MVIS at the low .20s and held it for a while as it wallowed around so I finally gave up... needless to say it was a couple days before it went off for nearly a 10× up beat the last couple days.
Three top lines are going for late fall cruises. Stocks are way down, I'd buy, but one bad cruise might end that sector of travel for awhile.
I'm fearless... and the thought of buying those stocks scares the living bejeezus out of me....lol
I'm talking to my FA tomorrow about some other stuff (I'm looking Oil and Gas again) and might toss a couple grand in one of them. Hopefully, I ain't goin' nowhere soon and can wait them out.
Good luck. I can't imagine that long term they won't increase substantially.
I'm a fan of Motley Fool and this is what they said (and read the disclaimer at the bottom about Carnival:
There's a lot working against cruise lines long-term. Demand is likely to be down simply from the economic fallout of COVID-19. Then there's the likely reduction in demand from customers who don't want to take the risk of going on a cruise.
Carnival and Royal Caribbean may now have the liquidity to get through the current COVID-19 crisis and begin operating again later this year or in 2021. But when they set sail, I don't think demand will return very quickly -- and like airline stocks, that could leave the industry oversupplied. The potential for losses if that happens will keep me out of cruise line stocks for the same reason Buffett recently sold airline stocks.
Travis Hoium has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
What's your thoughts on Disney? It's going to take at least a year or more to get any kind of crowd back in my opinion. But all bets are out the window if we get a vaccine and/or a cure for Covid by this fall.
Carnival has already canceled its most profitable cruises for the rest of the FY, and all west coast operations are canceled into October, most until 2021.
Companies are evaluating long-term viability of their current business models, and many will reduce costs, lean out staff, reduce services provided... this provides an ideal opportunity to streamline. IMO, in regards to cruise lines (partners we work closely with), I wouldn't touch them until there's some semblance of an idea of what their long-term plan is. Right now, the only plan I see in place for Carnival is to start running GOMEX and Florida cruises to the carribean starting again in June... just in time for hurricane season.
Buyer beware, man.
Personally, I would be far more likely to buy Disney given a couple things. First, Disney overall seems a far broader umbrella with their movie, cartoon, related digital networking, licensing and merchandising rights to provide significant support. Secondly, I think protective mechanisms such as distancing are far easier to attain in the Disney situation. Who knows? It's all a new world.
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Just off the phone with my FA.....and, after much discussion...I now own Disney, Southwest, and moved three accounts in to Marathon Petroleum. Looking at taking profits in 18 months....if there are profits.
Good luck. I wouldn't be frightened to be in Disney or Southwest for the long haul Oil... who knows what will happen with the manipulations that go on in that industry internationally. To me, the problem wifh oil is that it could easily travel down the same highway that coal did with pretty rapid speed.
Well, in the short term I believe oil will boom. And America isn't ready for electric cars....until us old, stubborn car lovers are dead. I have friends that are now flying, car travel will increase because grandma in Indiana has not seen the grand kids in Texas since Christmas and she isn't going to fly right now. Just playing the odds. I've got a great young FA whom I trust a lot and I've been doing my research. Put alerts up and down on all of them so I'll be okay. I think.
I like the move into Disney. That company is so diverse and well run, it'll be a solid blue chip forever. They're main problem is that the new CEO, Bob Chepak, is an iu grad.
But damn, I'm definitely second guessing myself as I watch this market continue to accelerate. I don't want to compound one questionable decision (moving to mostly cash a little late) by making another bad one (jumping in for fear of missing the rally, buying higher than I sold) and then the potential of another big dip in the second half of the year when all this economic impact hits the balance sheets.
The question is, has all the negativity been baked in already?
But damn, I'm definitely second guessing myself as I watch this market continue to accelerate. I don't want to compound one questionable decision (moving to mostly cash a little late) by making another bad one (jumping in for fear of missing the rally, buying higher than I sold) and then the potential of another big dip in the second half of the year when all this economic impact hits the balance sheets.
The question is, has all the negativity been baked in already?
I think the problem is very simple...we are all uncertain what is going on. The market obviously reacts pretty affirmatively with the push to reopen and the hope for a return to normalcy. We all know that a return is inevitable...BUT it could be this go around or there could be a devastating reclosure soon or in the fall. However, that too will be temporary. The issue is actually medical/scientific and not economic. A vaccine obviates the uncertainty so what I look at this as essentially a race... the inevitable recurrence vs. a successful vaccine.
I think that even a significant crash is short lived, unless the time is extreme AND the government refuses to act to significantly spark a recovery. My bet - short term and vaccine. Certainly wishful thinking and quite candidly one of the non-humanitarian self-serving reasons that I wish the public would act more responsibly in this opening process and drastically limit the expansion of Covid.
I've said all week that based on what I've seen with folks getting out and not doing the right things is we'll see a good sized spike again in about four weeks. By fall, say August....I think it's all but done.
It's the strangest thing how folks love to get on a big boat, drink themselves into a stupor every day, eat twice the food their body can digest. Again, my fear is that folks are going to get stupid way too soon for this to end well.
Actually, I can appreciate those attributes myself, and have been doing them somewhat of late without the benefit of a boat.
Mark Zandi, who is Moody Analytics Chief Economist, voiced some significant concerns about the economy related to Covid possibilities. He was pretty far ahead of the curve in issuing original warnings in January or February.
I'm waiting until we have several days of hot weather in a row. Most of these things react negatively to sun, heat, and humidity. Hopefully that's going to wipe a lot of it out, and I really believe Trump is pushing med tech's very hard to come up with a treatment of vaccine.
Again speaking of being a dumbass.
This time it's for not having sufficient fath.
At the end of February I was liking things that I was reading about MRNA. It had gone up to about $28 so I thought why not buy a few hundred bucks worth and play with it. I had planned to try to grab a bit and close the position fairly quickly but just never did because it actually was pretty dependable. This morning it was at $67.67.
Reminds me of being a kid when life guards would tell you if your going to dive in, dive in the deep...
Lol.
For what it's worth, I would steer clear of cruise ship investments for awhile. I have been getting offers for free Carnival cruises the last few months. They normally do this when they are having trouble getting full paying customers, so plan B is to find past customers who like to gamble and drink in the hope of making up the financial losses. (I've done my share of both over the years) Also, the boats in this environment are a petri dish for the virus. All it will take is another cruise ship coming down with 30-40 cases and no place to dock to shut down the industry again and . . . Plan C is to get young party-types on board who are willing to run up their booze tabs. (That sounds like the $28/day crowd to me and the type most likely to trigger the 30-40 cases) Future financial reports should be ugly
As for the general market, I still think it's too soon to go on the offensive -this should be a lot worse than 2008-2009. The market always projects out 6-9 months and still thinks the virus issues will be gone by then. I think at worst, the virus cases jump again and the market will see that the 6-9 projection was wishful thinking. At best, people take it seriously and the numbers come down, but even if the numbers go down, the economy will not bounce back quickly as many businesses will start laying off people/shuttering after the stimulus money is gone. Could be setting up for another ugly 3rd qtr (Anyone remember past Oct swoons and contentious elections?)
I am starting to dip my toe into the silver and gold miners again as well as biotechs - one thing we know, a ton of debt is piling up.
Best wishes either way !
A few weeks back I suggested Nvidia. That was about six weeks ago, on 3-24. I bought at 236.52 As of 45 seconds ago, it's at 324 and change. I'd suggest today, Novavax....who has a shareholder's meeting tonight where they're supposed to announce some news on their Covid trials and the success of their flu vaccine which is up for approval. In that same time frame it's gone from 14 a share to 24. Good news tonight and it's going to skyrocket IMO.
No issue with me... I haven't looked at anything afloat. My post was a fyi to an earlier comment.
I think it's an area that money can be made in, as long as you are nimble. (keep in mind that some are being that some are being fast tracked that may not pan out - think assortment to protect against a few losers.)
There is NO doubt that a number are going to fly due to unusual fast tracking.
I've been tempted to take the profits but so far I'm letting it all ride. I do have a sell price with my agent. Almost $100 a share in five weeks ain't too bad though. Just wish I'd bought more.
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