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Tennessee -4.5

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RockyTopRowdy58

Nov 8, 2006
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Feels a lot like a Tennessee cover to me. Purdue being down two first round draft picks just feels like a hurdle that the Boilermakers don't have the ability to jump over.

I really think a good bit of Tennessee's defensive issues the latter portion of the season were due to fatigue and body blows of playing in the SEC. A month off is going to be huge for that side of the ball... Especially when facing a one dimensional offense. Tennessee's defensive line can play vertical and the eyes of the back 7 won't be tested all that much either.

Tennessee's offense is what it is, and that's not a bad thing. I don't see Purdue holding us under 30.

Bell and Karlaftis would have been able to make enough plays to keep it close, maybe even win it. Without them I just dont see the firepower necessary to win or cover.
 
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RockyTopRowdy58 said:
Feels a lot like a Tennessee cover to me. Purdue being down two first round draft picks just feels like a hurdle that the Boilermakers don't have the ability to jump over.

I really think a good bit of Tennessee's defensive issues the latter portion of the season were due to fatigue and body blows of playing in the SEC. A month off is going to be huge for that side of the ball... Especially when facing a one dimensional offense. Tennessee's defensive line can play vertical and the eyes of the back 7 won't be tested all that much either.

Tennessee's offense is what it is, and that's not a bad thing. I don't see Purdue holding us under 30.

Bell and Karlaftis would have been able to make enough plays to keep it close, maybe even win it. Without them I just dont see the firepower necessary to win or cover.
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Seeing as how Vegas still has the spread under a touchdown, I'd suggest the experts would expect a pretty close game without Bell and Karlaftis playing. With Bell and Karlaftis, Purdue likely wins this game.

No offense to rocky top logic. But I'd leave the predictions to the experts...
 
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purduepat1969 said:
Seeing as how Vegas still has the spread under a touchdown, I'd suggest the experts would expect a pretty close game without Bell and Karlaftis playing. With Bell and Karlaftis, Purdue likely wins this game.

No offense to rocky top logic. But I'd leave the predictions to the experts...
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Where did I say Tennessee blows Purdue out? I said it feels like a Tennessee cover. Tennessee could win by less than a touchdown and still cover.

I guess that boilermaker reading comprehension is already on christmas break.
 
RockyTopRowdy58 said:
Where did I say Tennessee blows Purdue out? I said it feels like a Tennessee cover. Tennessee could win by less than a touchdown and still cover.

I guess that boilermaker reading comprehension is already on christmas break.
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"Bell and Karlaftis would have been able to make enough plays to keep it close, maybe even win it. Without them I just dont see the firepower necessary to win or cover."

So my assumption is you don't think it will be "close" based on your quote. So "Rocky Top" logic of "close" must be different than mine.
 
I am concerned about losing Bell and Karlaftis. On a plus side, we have seen other receivers step up so Bell's loss might not be all that damaging. The biggest variable to me is that both players were double teamed throughout the season.

Other than that, there is nothing else to go on. No common opponents. Is our schedule with ND, Iowa, MSU, O$U, close to UT's? I live in SEC country and have refused to watch a single SEC game, even if nothing else is on the TV.

Looking forward to a good game and hope to be pleasantly surprised with a belated Christmas gift in the form of a Boilermaker win.
 
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Purdue played a more difficult schedule than Tennessee in nearly every metric I looked at, and some didn't have the two particularly close. But sure, blame the "body blows" of a tough schedule as to why Tennessee sucks
 
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RockyTopRowdy58 said:
Feels a lot like a Tennessee cover to me. Purdue being down two first round draft picks just feels like a hurdle that the Boilermakers don't have the ability to jump over.

I really think a good bit of Tennessee's defensive issues the latter portion of the season were due to fatigue and body blows of playing in the SEC. A month off is going to be huge for that side of the ball... Especially when facing a one dimensional offense. Tennessee's defensive line can play vertical and the eyes of the back 7 won't be tested all that much either.

Tennessee's offense is what it is, and that's not a bad thing. I don't see Purdue holding us under 30.

Bell and Karlaftis would have been able to make enough plays to keep it close, maybe even win it. Without them I just dont see the firepower necessary to win or cover.
Click to expand...
 
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purduepat1969 said:
"Bell and Karlaftis would have been able to make enough plays to keep it close, maybe even win it. Without them I just dont see the firepower necessary to win or cover."

So my assumption is you don't think it will be "close" based on your quote. So "Rocky Top" logic of "close" must be different than mine.
Click to expand...

You must have overlooked that "maybe even win it" comment.
 
RockyTopRowdy58 said:
I really think a good bit of Tennessee's defensive issues the latter portion of the season were due to fatigue and body blows of playing in the SEC. A month off is going to be huge for that side of the ball... Especially when facing a one dimensional offense. Tennessee's defensive line can play vertical and the eyes of the back 7 won't be tested all that much either.
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The thing is though, that goes both ways. Part of the big reason that Purdue is "one dimensional" on offense was due to our #1 RB getting a broken leg early in the season (first possession of the second game). While he did start to get back on the field for the final few games, I suspect that his output is going to be much better with another month of rehabilitation.
 
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Hausta01 said:
Purdue played a more difficult schedule than Tennessee in nearly every metric I looked at, and some didn't have the two particularly close. But sure, blame the "body blows" of a tough schedule as to why Tennessee sucks
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Tennessee had a stretch of playing Ole Miss, Alabama, Kentucky, and Georgia. Thats as physical as it gets brother.
 
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goboilers2 said:
I am concerned about losing Bell and Karlaftis. On a plus side, we have seen other receivers step up so Bell's loss might not be all that damaging. The biggest variable to me is that both players were double teamed throughout the season.

Other than that, there is nothing else to go on. No common opponents. Is our schedule with ND, Iowa, MSU, O$U, close to UT's? I live in SEC country and have refused to watch a single SEC game, even if nothing else is on the TV.

Looking forward to a good game and hope to be pleasantly surprised with a belated Christmas gift in the form of a Boilermaker win.
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Why would you ignore SEC football when it is clearly the best league in the country?

And I'm no SEC fanboy. I would love if a few teams in the league would take a slide so Tennessee's life would be a bit easier.
 
RockyTopRowdy58 said:
Why would you ignore SEC football when it is clearly the best league in the country?

And I'm no SEC fanboy. I would love if a few teams in the league would take a slide so Tennessee's life would be a bit easier.
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Because I have contempt for the SEC, the gator chomp, the dawgs and their annoying barking, and anything to do with the "tide". I will occasionally cheer for Vandy, since academically, they are the only school that would qualify for the Big Ten.
 
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How does Tenn qualify for a bowl in the first place since I thought they are on probation?
 
I have never had ill will towards the Vols. I still remember Spurrier giving them grief, especially when he said that you cannot spell Citrus without UT.

A notable difference between this Music City Bowl and our last outing is that Auburn severely underperformed that season after being ranked highly in the initial polling. I dont see that with Tennessee.

My way too early, undereducated prediction is Boilers 34 Vols 28. O'Connell has only gotten better as the season progressed. This game will ride on him keeping the Tennessee offense off the field.
 
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Purdue85 said:
While reading this thread, it's abundantly clear that some people do not understand how the oddsmakers "price in" a game, available players, the skill level of the two teams, etc.

But, not surprising, considering our "guests"...
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So you’re betting on Purdue to cover?
 
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Purdue85 said:
While reading this thread, it's abundantly clear that some people do not understand how the oddsmakers "price in" a game, available players, the skill level of the two teams, etc.

But, not surprising, considering our "guests"...
Click to expand...

Our guests work really, really hard to win the pre-season, pre-game competition.
 
RockyTopRowdy58 said:
I hate all of them too. On that, we can agree.
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I actually like Tennessee. I have family from Tennessee and I grew up liking them. I also don’t mind watching SEC if I watch any football and don’t care about their academics. It doesn’t matter in sports. Big schools that let academics slide don’t get punished anyways so you can’t say it matters. That said, I like that Purdue plays by the rules and are still able to put a good product on the field and court. Should be a good game.
 
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C'ville Boiler said:
I actually like Tennessee. I have family from Tennessee and I grew up liking them. I also don’t mind watching SEC if I watch any football and don’t care about their academics. It doesn’t matter in sports. Big schools that let academics slide don’t get punished anyways so you can’t say it matters. That said, I like that Purdue plays by the rules and are still able to put a good product on the field and court. Should be a good game.
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I agree with you. Outside looking in, Purdue does a pretty damn good job. I respect Brohm and Painter.
 
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RockyTopRowdy58 said:
I really think a good bit of Tennessee's defensive issues the latter portion of the season were due to fatigue and body blows of playing in the SEC. A month off is going to be huge for that side of the ball... Especially when facing a one dimensional offense. Tennessee's defensive line can play vertical and the eyes of the back 7 won't be tested all that much either.
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Ok now apply that same logic to the Vol no huddle offense against the SEC defenses dealing with fatigue and body blows. Now substitute a well rested Purdue defense.
 
I believe if you're a betting person, you should bet on the OVER the point spread. Tenn likes to score a lot of points. That's going to put purdue in a passing oriented shoot out.

GK and Bell will be very hard to replace. GK was double teamed all year. Bell was Mr. Clutch. Will Purdue find somebody able to replace them? I hope so.

if you have a mediocre defense, no amount of rest will make them better. Tennessee was well rested when they played Pitt. Pitt still scored 41 points against tenn's well rested defense. on the same note, no amount of practice or rest is going to replace GK. Somebody will have to step up.

I really don't believe Purdue's running game or our running back's earlier injuries will be a factor, as I don't believe Purdue will run the ball very much. I expect to see a shoot-out much like the Tenn / Ky game with a lot of big plays. I expect to see AOC with 300-400 yards passing.

I expect to see an exciting offensive match-up.

Rather than picking or predicting a winner, I will just say I hope Purdue wins.
 
FirstDownB said:
Ok now apply that same logic to the Vol no huddle offense against the SEC defenses dealing with fatigue and body blows. Now substitute a well rested Purdue defense.
Click to expand...

Tennessee’s defense played 90+ snaps in most of the games I referenced with the other poster, which is going to be far more than other defenses.

Another contextual factor would be Tennessee playing this season with 71 scholarship players, compared to the competition’s full allotment of 85.

Sorry, but your thought process doesn’t translate. Devil is in the details.
 
RockyTopRowdy58 said:
Tennessee’s defense played 90+ snaps in most of the games I referenced with the other poster, which is going to be far more than other defenses.

Another contextual factor would be Tennessee playing this season with 71 scholarship players, compared to the competition’s full allotment of 85.

Sorry, but your thought process doesn’t translate. Devil is in the details.
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We get it. You aren’t here for a discussion, you are here to be right.

I personally would have loved to see the game played out with both teams at full power because I truly believe it would have been a great game that either team could win. Unfortunately Purdue is not going to show up with the team that went 8-4 and couldn’t be slowed by anyone the last 5 games of the year. I still think Purdue has the offensive fire power to score some points but I don’t think it will be enough without our two potential 1st round picks on a team that doesn’t typically have two first round picks.
 
Beorik said:
We get it. You aren’t here for a discussion, you are here to be right.

I personally would have loved to see the game played out with both teams at full power because I truly believe it would have been a great game that either team could win. Unfortunately Purdue is not going to show up with the team that went 8-4 and couldn’t be slowed by anyone the last 5 games of the year. I still think Purdue has the offensive fire power to score some points but I don’t think it will be enough without our two potential 1st round picks on a team that doesn’t typically have two first round picks.
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Sorry for having a different opinion
 
Hausta01 said:
Purdue played a more difficult schedule than Tennessee in nearly every metric I looked at, and some didn't have the two particularly close. But sure, blame the "body blows" of a tough schedule as to why Tennessee sucks
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Purdue's schedule overall was more difficult than Tennessee's...but I believe that Purdue's hard games were spread out more than Tennessee's.

Tennessee's toughest 4 game stretch was against (using current FBS Football Rankings) #8 Ole Miss, #1 Alabama, #22 Kentucky, #3 Georgia.

Purdue's hardest 4 game stretch was against unranked Wisconsin, unranked Nebraska, #10 Michigan State, #6 Ohio State.

Tennessee had more cupcake opponents...but also had only slightly more difficult opponents in their top tier. The top opponents on UT's schedule are (again...using FBS football rankings). #1 Bama, #3 Georgia, #8 Ole Miss, #12 Pitt, #22 Kentucky (2 in the top 5; 3 in the top 10; 5 in the top 25).

Purdue's schedule was overall more difficult, but their top opponents were not as difficult. The top opponents on Purdue's schedule were: #5 Notre Dame, #6 Ohio St. #10 Michigan St., #15 Iowa. (1 in the top 5; 3 in the top 10; 4 in the top 25).

I should add that Tennessee was 1-4 against the top 25 and Purdue was 2-2 against top 25 opponents. Most impressive is that the win over Michigan State came a week before facing Ohio State. Tennessee was blown out (loss by more than 2 tds) by 2 of their top 25 opponents (Bama and Georgia), Purdue was only blown out by one of their top 25 opponents (Ohio State).

All in all, I believe that the teams are pretty evenly matched and it should be a really exciting game to watch. As for the points spread...Vegas bases spreads on 2 things...what they think the outcome will likely be...and what will get more people to lay their money down. So points spreads will move based, not only on news coming out of the camps as to who looks most prepared...but also lines move based on what money is coming in...who is betting on what.
 
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madmaxvol said:
Purdue's schedule overall was more difficult than Tennessee's...but I believe that Purdue's hard games were spread out more than Tennessee's.

Tennessee's toughest 4 game stretch was against (using current FBS Football Rankings) #8 Ole Miss, #1 Alabama, #22 Kentucky, #3 Georgia.

Purdue's hardest 4 game stretch was against unranked Wisconsin, unranked Nebraska, #10 Michigan State, #6 Ohio State.

Tennessee had more cupcake opponents...but also had only slightly more difficult opponents in their top tier. The top opponents on UT's schedule are (again...using FBS football rankings). #1 Bama, #3 Georgia, #8 Ole Miss, #12 Pitt, #22 Kentucky (2 in the top 5; 3 in the top 10; 5 in the top 25).

Purdue's schedule was overall more difficult, but their top opponents were not as difficult. The top opponents on Purdue's schedule were: #5 Notre Dame, #6 Ohio St. #10 Michigan St., #15 Iowa. (1 in the top 5; 3 in the top 10; 4 in the top 25).

I should add that Tennessee was 1-4 against the top 25 and Purdue was 2-2 against top 25 opponents. Most impressive is that the win over Michigan State came a week before facing Ohio State. Tennessee was blown out (loss by more than 2 tds) by 2 of their top 25 opponents (Bama and Georgia), Purdue was only blown out by one of their top 25 opponents (Ohio State).

All in all, I believe that the teams are pretty evenly matched and it should be a really exciting game to watch. As for the points spread...Vegas bases spreads on 2 things...what they think the outcome will likely be...and what will get more people to lay their money down. So points spreads will move based, not only on news coming out of the camps as to who looks most prepared...but also lines move based on what money is coming in...who is betting on what.
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Wisconsin being unranked was a joke. As you can see, they are now. Nebraska has lost numerous games by one possession against ranked teams. Purdue's schedule was ranked 12th in the nation. Tennessee was ranked 23rd because of the cupcakes they played. Tennessee lost to Bama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Who cares how good they were. You still lost. By a lot. And you were blown out by an unranked Florida team...

Georgia got exposed by Alabama. And Tennessee only scored 17 on them. Ohio State would have put up 30+ against Georgia. It'll be interesting to see what happens vs Michigan...
 
purduepat1969 said:
Wisconsin being unranked was a joke. As you can see, they are now. Nebraska has lost numerous games by one possession against ranked teams. Purdue's schedule was ranked 12th in the nation. Tennessee was ranked 23rd because of the cupcakes they played. Tennessee lost to Bama, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Who cares how good they were. You still lost. By a lot. And you were blown out by an unranked Florida team...

Georgia got exposed by Alabama. And Tennessee only scored 17 on them. Ohio State would have put up 30+ against Georgia. It'll be interesting to see what happens vs Michigan...
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Lol we lost to Ole Miss by a touchdown and we’re in the red zone to end the game with a chance to win it.

Florida was a different team early in the year before the wheels fell off… Similar to Purdue finding their stride and getting a lot better.

Bama game was a touchdown game in the 4th. Score doesn’t reflect how close the game actually was.

You boilermakers love to scoreboard watch and ignore context.
 
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Level 42 said:
Because the scoreboard is what matters. Not shoulda, woulda, couldas.
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Where have I said shoulda, coulda, woulda?

In college football you are not what your record says you are. Context matters and who you play matters.

What would Purdue’s record be if they played Cinci’s schedule? Same team. Better record.
 
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