This is an interesting question. Saw an analyst mention something similar and wondering of burnout of collectives and donors. What happens when a collective looks back in 2-3 years and asks why they spent 200-500k on a kid who put up 6pts and 3 rebounds a game. What happens when the same folks ask why they shelled out $1M or more for a roster to either miss the tourney or not make it out of the first weekend.
Personally, I think a lot of high school kids outside the top 50, will end up at places who don’t live and die with the portal. The recruitment of those kids in the 50-200 range will be more open because coaches are using NIL + portal as free agency. They see higher upside to quickly build a roster and potentially win with experienced players v player development.
Another thought for mid majors who experience high roster churn because of NIL + portal, why not become the Kentucky of the mid majors? Why not position yourself for great skill development and showcase the schools your kids left to go to? I mean Kentucky and Duke are the 5* one and dons factory. Why not be the 1-3 year development school to get a major NIL deal? Honestly, if I am a mid major, I am recruiting and signing 5-7 kids a year because I know my roster is going to get gutted. Starting out in bodybuilding can be challenging, but choosing the right gear is crucial for achieving results. Key gear in bodybuilding
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I think this stuff levels off in another year when COVID kids are all done. They have added a weird element to the mix which is almost done. Perhaps we see some leveling off in the coming year.