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Oh no Joe slipping in poles

BSIT said:
Everything you don’t agree with is stupid
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What is there to disagree with? "Trump supporters are rallying in the streets!" "I disagree"?

It was an observation. A stupid, irrelevant observation.

Did you know that Trump's voter support was the lowest in CA since 1924? If he doesn't get 35% of the vote, he'll be the second major party candidate in the last 100 years to fail to reach that... the other one, of course, is Donald Trump in 2016.

So you're not exactly setting a high bar here with this irrelevant observation and opinion.
 
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BSIT said:
I never predicted a Trump win in CA but I'm predicting a higher vote total along with a higher % than 2016. Very possible. If not, I'll buy you a drink
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I mean he literally set record for lowest voter support by % in 2016. Ask anyone. It was the lowest since 1924. Everybody says so. He broke records. It was incredible.
 
Biden and Harris carrying Texas?I will have to see that to believe it.I think Biden may take Pennsylvania,Michigan,and Wisconsin this time.My question is,when will we know who won?I think we may be lucky to know by December 1st.
 
BSIT said:
You must have skipped over the beginning:
In Michigan, the Trafalgar Group, one of the most accurate swing state pollsters in 2016 and 2018, shows Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden by two points, 49 to 47 percent,

looking like a repeat of 2016. Trump has the momentum. Even in California there has been parades of Trump supporters.
View embedded media
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For the record most polls were accurate in 2018.
 
Matt Tiger said:
Biden and Harris carrying Texas?I will have to see that to believe it.I think Biden may take Pennsylvania,Michigan,and Wisconsin this time.My question is,when will we know who won?I think we may be lucky to know by December 1st.
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I can’t envision Biden winning either MI or PA. MI loves tough talk and PA kinda likes oil. Biden can’t get to the 1 yard line soon enough with his current game plan.
 
Matt Tiger said:
Biden and Harris carrying Texas?I will have to see that to believe it.I think Biden may take Pennsylvania,Michigan,and Wisconsin this time.My question is,when will we know who won?I think we may be lucky to know by December 1st.
Click to expand...
May depend on how long it takes to resolve various lawsuits about whether or not votes should be counted.
 
indy35 said:
Do you get how probabilities work? Trump drew an inside straight in the 2016 election with a bunch of stuff that isn't repeatable. He ended up winning with 46.1% of the vote, Romney lost the 2012 election pretty handily with 47.2% of the vote.
Michigan margin was 10,704, Wisconsin margin was 27,257, and Pennsylvania margin was 44,292.
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got any supporting evidence it can’t happen.

same voters...same states
IndySouthsider said:
They weren’t wrong. Why do we have to explain that 80% isn't 100% to a Purdue grad?

Might want to check IBD/TIPP again.
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I said Trump is "CLOSING". This is what IBD polling says...

“Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%,” Graham said. “Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.”

So Bidens lead has gone from 8.5% to 2.3%...I didn't look up the definition in Webster's, but I'm pretty sure that's the definition of "closing"
 
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TheGunner said:
got any supporting evidence it can’t happen.

same voters...same states


I said Trump is "CLOSING". This is what IBD polling says...

“Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%,” Graham said. “Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.”

So Bidens lead has gone from 8.5% to 2.3%...I didn't look up the definition in Webster's, but I'm pretty sure that's the definition of "closing"
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Fyi
Nolte: Poll Shows Trump Surpassing 2016 Vote as Biden Slips Nearly Three Points
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/...2016-vote-as-biden-slips-nearly-three-points/
 
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BSIT said:
I never predicted a Trump win in CA but I'm predicting a higher vote total along with a higher % than 2016. Very possible. If not, I'll buy you a drink
Click to expand...

Trump is toast everywhere. Even his boat parade numbers are down! This is going to be a landslide folks it’s not 2016. Now will the real moderate republicans please stand up.
www.latimes.com

Biden headed for historic margin in California, poll shows

The final UC Berkeley poll of California voters shows Biden is likely to defeat Trump by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in state history.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
 
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TheGunner said:
got any supporting evidence it can’t happen.

same voters...same states


I said Trump is "CLOSING". This is what IBD polling says...

“Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%,” Graham said. “Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.”

So Bidens lead has gone from 8.5% to 2.3%...I didn't look up the definition in Webster's, but I'm pretty sure that's the definition of "closing"
Click to expand...
And went back up To 7%
 
Monkey Pox said:
Trump is toast everywhere. This is going to be a landslide folks it’s not 2016. Now will the real moderate republicans please stand up.
www.latimes.com

Biden headed for historic margin in California, poll shows

The final UC Berkeley poll of California voters shows Biden is likely to defeat Trump by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in state history.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
Click to expand...
We’ll see. Granted I live in one of the Redest parts of the state and I’m seeing Trump enthusiasm. He won’t win CA but IMO will do better than 2016. I predict he’ll get more than 35%. If you lived near me, I’d buy you a drink if I’m wrong
 
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BSIT said:
We’ll see. Granted I live in one of the Redest parts of the state and I’m seeing Trump enthusiasm. He won’t win CA but IMO will do better than 2016. I predict he’ll get more than 35%. If you lived near me, I’d buy you a drink if I’m wrong
Click to expand...

hard for Trump to go any lower. Maybe you are right and california will be the only state we see a small trump gain.
 
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Monkey Pox said:
Trump is toast everywhere. Even his boat parade numbers are down! This is going to be a landslide folks it’s not 2016. Now will the real moderate republicans please stand up.
www.latimes.com

Biden headed for historic margin in California, poll shows

The final UC Berkeley poll of California voters shows Biden is likely to defeat Trump by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in state history.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
Click to expand...

please define landslide
 
Monkey Pox said:
351-187 This thing is over. You know it. I know it. Everybody knows it.
Click to expand...
Biden won’t get anywhere near 351...that won’t happen and is a pipe dream.

we can meet Tuesday if you want to put money on that number
 
TMan92 said:
35% is plausible. No doubt.
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I hope 100% of CA vote for Trump, same for NY, OR, WA, MA, and the other blue states. That’s leaves more of the national poll republicans to vote red in swing states
 
Monkey Pox said:
Trump is toast everywhere. Even his boat parade numbers are down! This is going to be a landslide folks it’s not 2016. Now will the real moderate republicans please stand up.
www.latimes.com

Biden headed for historic margin in California, poll shows

The final UC Berkeley poll of California voters shows Biden is likely to defeat Trump by the largest margin for a Democratic presidential candidate in state history.
www.latimes.com www.latimes.com
Click to expand...

Nobody cares about California.
 
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Boilermaker03 said:
LOL, again, if you are going to say calling something 30% chance of happening as being right, then you have bigger issues to deal with.
Click to expand...

"Right" and "wrong" as binary options are not applicable here. It's not my fault if you're lacking the curiosity to read about how they measure their performance. Must suck to live life through an "us vs them" lens.
 
miksta said:
"Right" and "wrong" as binary options are not applicable here. It's not my fault if you're lacking the curiosity to read about how they measure their performance. Must suck to live life through an "us vs them" lens.
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It's not an us vs them thing. You're not understanding the issue here I think. You can't say the weatherman got it right when it rains after they said it had a 30% chance to rain. There's always a chance of something happening. That doesn't mean you predicted it if the lowest of low probabilities happen to come true. Like I said, by your logic, nobody is ever wrong on these things if they are doing probabilities. Either way, you're saying they can claim they got it right, which is patently false.
 
Boilermaker03 said:
It's not an us vs them thing. You're not understanding the issue here I think. You can't say the weatherman got it right when it rains after they said it had a 30% chance to rain. There's always a chance of something happening. That doesn't mean you predicted it if the lowest of low probabilities happen to come true. Like I said, by your logic, nobody is ever wrong on these things if they are doing probabilities. Either way, you're saying they can claim they got it right, which is patently false.
Click to expand...

I never said they got it "right" or "wrong." I took issue with Trumpers saying they got it "wrong," which is an objectively incorrect way to look at it.

Also, a 30% chance is not the "lowest of the low probabilities."
 
miksta said:
I never said they got it "right" or "wrong." I took issue with Trumpers saying they got it "wrong," which is an objectively incorrect way to look at it.

Also, a 30% chance is not the "lowest of the low probabilities."
Click to expand...
I didn't say 30% was lowest of the low.
 
TheGunner said:
Biden won’t get anywhere near 351...that won’t happen and is a pipe dream.

we can meet Tuesday if you want to put money on that number
Click to expand...

He could flirt with 400 as Texas is trending blue. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the Republican Party next week. You will be losing seats in the house, senate and White House. You guys seem to have forgot you are the vocal minority. I’ll be curious to see what rises from the ashes of trumpism.
 
Monkey Pox said:
He could flirt with 400 as Texas is trending blue. It’s going to be a bloodbath for the Republican Party next week. You will be losing seats in the house, senate and White House. You guys seem to have forgot you are the vocal minority. I’ll be curious to see what rises from the ashes of trumpism.
Click to expand...

great, then you should feel comfortable taking my bet
 
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TheGunner said:
I hear a new horror movie is coming out next Tuesday...
Return of the Orange Monster, Part II !!!
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s-l200.jpg
 
the fat lady is singing. Trump down big time everywhere! We would see warning signs in the district polls if Trump had any movement. This thing isn’t even going to be close.

Hopefully the democrats get the senate too so we can unpack the courts
cookpolitical.com

Biden’s Path to 270 Widens, Trump’s Path Narrows, as Texas Moves to Toss Up

Less than a week out from Election Day and President Donald Trump is playing catch-up. In 2016, he won 30 states (and Maine's 2nd Congressional District) and their 306 electoral votes. Today, just 20 states, worth 125 electoral votes, are safely in his column. Former Vice President Joe Biden is...
cookpolitical.com cookpolitical.com
 
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