Do you get how probabilities work? Trump drew an inside straight in the 2016 election with a bunch of stuff that isn't repeatable. He ended up winning with 46.1% of the vote, Romney lost the 2012 election pretty handily with 47.2% of the vote.
Michigan margin was 10,704, Wisconsin margin was 27,257, and Pennsylvania margin was 44,292.
Dave Wasserman (House Editor from Cook Political Report) was briefly featured on "The Circus" edition from last night, discussing exactly how much of an inside straight Trump lucked into in 2016. He sat down with Mark Mckinnon, who is one of the featured correspondents on The Show. Mckinnon is a long-time GOP political operative, who worked on McCain's 2008 campaign, and Wasserman detailed why 2020 is NOT 2016...
A little context, as House editor of the non-partisan Cook Political Report Wasserman, is privy to private, internal polling that is rarely, if ever released to the public. That allowed Wasserman to post these tweets a week prior to the 2016 election based on his exposure to poll data based on Congressional districts...
Wasserman sees a far different landscape a week out from 2020. He told Mckinnon that overall, with the exception of some heavily Hispanic districts, Trump is underperforming between 8-10% on his 2016 numbers. Trump won in 2016 based on about 77,000 votes in MI, WI, and PA combined. But Wasserman points out that it is even more acute, and that if you eliminated the vote from one county in each of those states Clinton would be POTUS. He cited Macomb (MI), Wakashaw (WI), and Westmoreland (PA).
This is an example of exactly what Wasserman is seeing, and gives a prime example of Trump underperforming in places he desperately has to have. In 2016, Trump won Northampton Co (PA) by 4 pts, and yet he is currently trailing there by 12 pts to Biden. Matt Dowd (another long-time Republican who led both of Bush's Campaigns 2000 and 2004) pointed out that a week out Biden has a better shot of winning TEXAS than Trump has of again winning MI, WI, and PA.
The Powerhouse Roundtable discusses the final weeks of the 2020 election and Thursday's debate on "This Week."
www.yahoo.com
Trump won Ohio by 9+ in 2016 but traveled there and NC this weekend. Trump won GA by nearly 6 pts, but KH was there on Fri and Biden will be there tomorrow. Most polls show a razor-thin margin in Texas- NONE of that is in any way "good news" for the Trump "train"...
www.washingtonexaminer.com
