Michigan versus the good guys in D.C.

[tjreese]

A lot of talk about problems with defending Michigan and most of the talk rightfully concerned Wagner and to less of an extent Wilson. What if Purdue can't stop them, but contain them to averages? Irvin had a good game...he will be ready...Abdul whatever is always a concern as he can score quickly...but what about Walton? He had maybe 10 boards the last game? Can PJ and Carsen NOT lose focus on him but double team him with energy and try to make others handle the ball more AND keep Walton off the boards? He certainly isn't as crucial in that regard as Yogi. This is just a hard team to match up with from Purdue's side. Maybe Purdue will get some refs that will let them get a little more physical without actually impeding real progress on the perimeter and more typical inside calls, but without mauling Haas. Michigan has less concerns I think...they either will hit the outside shot or not...Purdue a little short handed with real matchup issues the whole game.

That said, I think Purdue has more fire this game and although Michigan has confidence, they know it will be a different battle away from their court and if they don't get a great start and purdue is methodical in the approach (welcome to the machine) Purdue can grind it out. Spike...another step forward...

 

[BoilerGal74]

Think "grind it out" is very key. Don't think our best shot( all puns intended) is to try to run with them. We need to limit their fast breaks and make them play half court offense. Our style=our win.

 

[blockm2]

Michigan has less concerns I think...they either will hit the outside shot or not...

There is a little bit of a common misconception that Michigan goes as their outside shooting goes. Not quite true. Outside of 1 horrid game @ South Carolina this year, they have near identical 3 pt shooting numbers in wins and losses. Today they scorched the Illini defense for well over 1.2 PPP despite below average 3 point shooting (9/25, 36%). Just the threat of the outside shooting tends to open up plenty of lanes for driving and when you have to have your center guarding the 3 point line there generally isn't much rim protection left.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

There is a little bit of a common misconception that Michigan goes as their outside shooting goes. Not quite true. Outside of 1 horrid game @ South Carolina this year, they have near identical 3 pt shooting numbers in wins and losses. Today they scorched the Illini defense for well over 1.2 PPP despite below average 3 point shooting (9/25, 36%). Just the threat of the outside shooting tends to open up plenty of lanes for driving and when you have to have your center guarding the 3 point line there generally isn't much rim protection left.

Ilinois also had a high number of TO's and a very low assist rate. If Purdue comes out and plays to their ability level, Purdue wins and advances.

 

[blockm2]

Ilinois also had a high number of TO's and a very low assist rate. If Purdue comes out and plays to their ability level, Purdue wins and advances.

maybe. Since February 1st, Michigan has played like a top 10 team nationally by advanced metrics and been the best team in the Big Ten. It isn't as simple as if Purdue plays well they win. Michigan could still play good enough to beat that. Now I'm not saying they would beat Purdue playing well, but they could and that would be one hell of an epic game to watch.

Pointing out that Illinois turned the ball over a lot when Michigan's D forces a lot of turnovers and Purdue turns it over a lot themselves is one of the last reasons for optimism for Purdue. I mean Illinois turned the ball over less often this year than Purdue in conference play.

 

[tjreese]

Think "grind it out" is very key. Don't think our best shot( all puns intended) is to try to run with them. We need to limit their fast breaks and make them play half court offense. Our style=our win.

...and make them expend energy defending Purdue.

 

[tjreese]

Ilinois also had a high number of TO's and a very low assist rate. If Purdue comes out and plays to their ability level, Purdue wins and advances.

I agree, but boy do I hate trying to figure out how to guard Michigan "IF" they are hitting.

 

[cprh9u]

I wish Illinois would have given them a better game. Michigan cruising means they won't be as worn out, will have a game under their belts in DC and will have a high level of confidence after crushing Illinois and beating Purdue recently. This game feels like a 50/50 type to me.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I agree, but boy do I hate trying to figure out how to guard Michigan "IF" they are hitting.

Very true but I think you make an adjustment and hopefully that adjustment throws them off enough that the team is able to continue keeping the game close....if they are hitting on all cylinders. It is hard for a team to maintain full stride for an entire half...let along an entire game. The one thing that UM has that Purdue has usually had over its' opponents is upper level leadership and experience. Michigan has that with a number of players...which is why you didn't see Purdue have the ability to make a come back at UM a few weeks ago. Need to get out to an early lead and then maintain it. It would be of supreme importance if Purdue could get up by a large amount and allow the guys like Biggie, Mathias, and Vince a bit of rest...even for the final four minutes.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

I wish Illinois would have given them a better game. Michigan cruising means they won't be as worn out, will have a game under their belts in DC and will have a high level of confidence after crushing Illinois and beating Purdue recently. This game feels like a 50/50 type to me.

Don't underscore the added stress of the accident that may play in to this as well. No matter the trauma...it was still that and although adrenaline can help through some of that, the thrown off schedules and the tiring level of that may catch up with UM. Just because you are resting doesn't necessarily mean it is good rest. I hope UM is able to get through that event with no mental or emotional issues...but I wouldn't mind seeing them tired and worn out tomorrow trying to battle with Biggie and Haas!!!

 

[blockm2]

I wish Illinois would have given them a better game. Michigan cruising means they won't be as worn out, will have a game under their belts in DC and will have a high level of confidence after crushing Illinois and beating Purdue recently. This game feels like a 50/50 type to me.

KenPom says Purdue is a 2 point favorite with 57% chance of victory

 

[lbodel]

maybe. Since February 1st, Michigan has played like a top 10 team nationally by advanced metrics and been the best team in the Big Ten. It isn't as simple as if Purdue plays well they win. Michigan could still play good enough to beat that. Now I'm not saying they would beat Purdue playing well, but they could and that would be one hell of an epic game to watch.

Pointing out that Illinois turned the ball over a lot when Michigan's D forces a lot of turnovers and Purdue turns it over a lot themselves is one of the last reasons for optimism for Purdue. I mean Illinois turned the ball over less often this year than Purdue in conference play.

Also, Purdue had 11 turnovers against Illinois in the first meeting. Not an amazing number, but not bad - and pretty average for Purdue.

In that meeting, Purdue shot 49% from the field, outrebounded Michigan by 7 and had a pedestrian 11 turnovers. None of those would raise a red flag. We had a down day in 3 point shooting 5-16 (31%), but limited attempts. If we shot our average %, still would have lost.

I think the key will be which team instills their will basically. Michigan really was able to instill what they wanted to do in key stretches and we couldn't stop them. A little of that was very hot shooting, some of it though was just doing what makes them successful. They also were able to minimize Swanigan's rebounding and caused 5 turnovers by him.

I think this is a game where we need to see Swanigan battle big time for rebounds, Vince to stay visible and utilize his slashing ability, and Carsen to play smart when he is in (he had a good game against Michigan last time). This was also a game where Mathias and Cline were both pretty quiet, would like to hear their names tomorrow.

 

[lbodel]

Don't underscore the added stress of the accident that may play in to this as well. No matter the trauma...it was still that and although adrenaline can help through some of that, the thrown off schedules and the tiring level of that may catch up with UM. Just because you are resting doesn't necessarily mean it is good rest. I hope UM is able to get through that event with no mental or emotional issues...but I wouldn't mind seeing them tired and worn out tomorrow trying to battle with Biggie and Haas!!!

I think this will have very little to do with anything. I don't think there's going to be PTSD that shows up suddenly tomorrow. Yes, their schedules were thrown off - but they are college kids. They will be able to nap this afternoon if they want and will get a full night sleep tonight.

I think the only thing is Purdue may be able to get a bit more "opponent prep" in. But obviously Michigan has always known it was going to play Purdue if it won.

 

[samcboiler]

After watching the Illinois / Michigan game, 2 words. I'M WORRIED...

 

[BoilerStation]

Very true but I think you make an adjustment and hopefully that adjustment throws them off enough that the team is able to continue keeping the game close....if they are hitting on all cylinders. It is hard for a team to maintain full stride for an entire half...let along an entire game. The one thing that UM has that Purdue has usually had over its' opponents is upper level leadership and experience. Michigan has that with a number of players...which is why you didn't see Purdue have the ability to make a come back at UM a few weeks ago. Need to get out to an early lead and then maintain it. It would be of supreme importance if Purdue could get up by a large amount and allow the guys like Biggie, Mathias, and Vince a bit of rest...even for the final four minutes.

Purdue did make a comeback in a way. Wasn't it a 3 point game before they hit the 3 at the end of the shot clock? Maybe it was 6 and my memory is off. Purdue didn't win and the score ballooned out of reach afterwards but we still made a run and were a possession away from a tie game. We were a couple plays away at both ends of the floor from a potential win playing a very poor game. UM can and has beaten us but staying within striking range even when things aren't going our way is how we've won some games this year and a basket or two more in the first half could have changed the outcome. I'm surprised how by how much people fear the teams that have beaten us earlier in the season when it comes to Minn and UM.

 

[tjreese]

There is a little bit of a common misconception that Michigan goes as their outside shooting goes. Not quite true. Outside of 1 horrid game @ South Carolina this year, they have near identical 3 pt shooting numbers in wins and losses. Today they scorched the Illini defense for well over 1.2 PPP despite below average 3 point shooting (9/25, 36%). Just the threat of the outside shooting tends to open up plenty of lanes for driving and when you have to have your center guarding the 3 point line there generally isn't much rim protection left.

************************************
That is "after" the game data. During the game each team is fearful of them hitting the shot and THAT FEAR opens things up. It is the fear they can go off, not the win and loss percentage of 3's they make. If Purdue knew how many they would make, they might not fear the three ball and the lanes wouldn't be open. Since nobody knows what they will do...average shooting, worse than average...better than average...who knows what they will do is the fear that opens it up. I'm sure if coaches knew ahead of time what they would do, they would feel much better in how they defend. Also, that data is confounded in other team's abilities that may or may not be representative of Purdue's players, Purdue's stats and the match-ups at hand.

I think that fear and yet unsure if Michigan would hit just a few 3 balls is part of the reason Wagner got open looks. Perhaps that fear makes Purdue open a can of worms and perhaps Matt just makes a tweak and rolls the dice? I'm sure Matt would be very happy to use the average attempts in a game and give the average points and Matt gets the average possessions and play against those numbers...very happy, but the fear that a two minute hot stretch can be a game...changes the paradigm at play in my opinion.

I will also add that it would be easier to coach Michigan than Purdue in this game I believe, but easier doesn't mean winning...although they could

 

[Professor Emeritus]

KenPom says Purdue is a 2 point favorite with 57% chance of victory

By the way, congratulations to Coach Beilein for becoming the all-time winningest coach in Michigan history with today's victory! Couldn't happen to a better guy.

 

[lbodel]

Purdue did make a comeback in a way. Wasn't it a 3 point game before they hit the 3 at the end of the shot clock? Maybe it was 6 and my memory is off. Purdue didn't win and the score ballooned out of reach afterwards but we still made a run and were a possession away from a tie game. We were a couple plays away at both ends of the floor from a potential win playing a very poor game. UM can and has beaten us but staying within striking range even when things aren't going our way is how we've won some games this year and a basket or two more in the first half could have changed the outcome. I'm surprised how by how much people fear the teams that have beaten us earlier in the season when it comes to Minn and UM.

Purdue's smallest deficit in the second half was 7. Once Purdue pulled in within 7, like you said, it was quickly back out of reach.

One interesting thing in the second half was Purdue outscored Michigan 22-8 in the paint. In the first half, it was 22-20. We basically took the same number of 3 point shots each half, so that's not why there was a difference.

 

[lbodel]

By the way, congratulations to Coach Beilein for becoming the all-time winningest coach in Michigan history with today's victory! Couldn't happen to a better guy.

I was kind of surprised when I heard that - he's been there for what 9 years? He's had some very good years and been pretty consistent winning, but there's been a few non-+.500 seasons. Guess there just hasn't been a lot of long reigns as head coach there.

But yes, good for him - and glad he won't be going for that tomorrow! ha

 

[BoilerGal74]

Don't underscore the added stress of the accident that may play in to this as well. No matter the trauma...it was still that and although adrenaline can help through some of that, the thrown off schedules and the tiring level of that may catch up with UM. Just because you are resting doesn't necessarily mean it is good rest. I hope UM is able to get through that event with no mental or emotional issues...but I wouldn't mind seeing them tired and worn out tomorrow trying to battle with Biggie and Haas!!!

Absolutely, posted something very similar in another thread. Just can't believe there won't have to be some kind of emotional and physical let down after all that adrenaline dissapates. Just hope its in the next 24 hours versus 48...

 

[lbodel]

Absolutely, posted something very similar in another thread. Just can't believe there won't have to be some kind of emotional and physical let down after all that adrenaline dissapates. Just hope its in the next 24 hours versus 48...

They played 24 hours after it happened. I don't think it's going to suddenly appear. And they will get plenty of sleep tonight. I used to go on 5 hours of sleep in college! ha

 

[Professor Emeritus]

I was kind of surprised when I heard that - he's been there for what 9 years? He's had some very good years and been pretty consistent winning, but there's been a few non-+.500 seasons. Guess there just hasn't been a lot of long reigns as head coach there.

But yes, good for him - and glad he won't be going for that tomorrow! ha

I think Johnny Orr (whom Beilein passed today) would have stayed longer had UM paid him more...apparently he left after Iowa State called to ask about hiring his assistant, the ghastly Bill Frieder, for the Iowa State head gig, and when Orr learned how much Iowa State was paying he took the job himself! Orr was a great character.

 

[BoilerGal74]

They played 24 hours after it happened. I don't think it's going to suddenly appear. And they will get plenty of sleep tonight. I used to go on 5 hours of sleep in college! ha

You are talking apples and oranges to the rest of us... I get that you don't think the airplane accident was any different than normal or that it should have any additional effect. That's what we are talking about- not college kids simply missing a night's sleep or getting into town without their pretty little uniforms...Let's just agree to disagree as this is getting tiresome.

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

I think this will be a dogfight and the reason I preferred not to have to play either Michigan or Minnesota (ie bad matchups). Oh well, it is what it is.

Today Michigan got 15 layups and dunks against Illinois. Normally if we give up that many, we have to shoot well to overcome it. I think it comes down to what they give us - either 1-on-1 in the paint or 3 pt shooting.

Seeing that I expect them to double down, I agree with JonnyDoe -we need to get an "early lead" & then shoot around 50% from 3 to win this one. (They will get a lot of points off of dribble penetration or turnovers.)

On defense, I would make Wagner hit 3s, before making an adjustment (he's NOT at home this time) - his shot didn't look very good today. I am more worried about Irvin and Walton Jr in this one. (Seniors who get on a roll are trouble) Oh !, maybe that means another good game for spike !

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Purdue's smallest deficit in the second half was 7. Once Purdue pulled in within 7, like you said, it was quickly back out of reach.

One interesting thing in the second half was Purdue outscored Michigan 22-8 in the paint. In the first half, it was 22-20. We basically took the same number of 3 point shots each half, so that's not why there was a difference.

Purdue cut it to 73-67 with a little over 2 minutes left, and then Walton's play made it 76-67 on the ensuing possession.

 

[lbodel]

You are talking apples and oranges to the rest of us... I get that you don't think the airplane accident was any different than normal or that it should have any additional effect. That's what we are talking about- not college kids simply missing a night's sleep or getting into town without their pretty little uniforms...Let's just agree to disagree as this is getting tiresome.

I mean, I just don't understand why Michigan would be fine and dandy today and played great - but will be traumatized tomorrow. it's not like they played 6 hours after the accident - they had a night to sleep on it. i just feel like you should never try to factor in trauma, adrenaline, tired legs too much into the equation. Does it sometimes play into things? Sure. But does it sometimes not? Yup. Which is why I wouldn't really consider it a factor. That's all I'm saying - I hope I'm wrong and they are worn out though, I'm happy to be wrong! ha

 

[lbodel]

I think this will be a dogfight and the reason I preferred not to have to play either Michigan or Minnesota (ie bad matchups). Oh well, it is what it is.

Today Michigan got 15 layups and dunks against Illinois. Normally if we give up that many, we have to shoot well to overcome it. I think it comes down to what they give us - either 1-on-1 in the paint or 3 pt shooting.

Seeing that I expect them to double down, I agree with JonnyDoe -we need to get an "early lead" & then shoot around 50% from 3 to win this one. (They will get a lot of points off of dribble penetration or turnovers.)

On defense, I would make Wagner hit 3s, before making an adjustment (he's NOT at home this time) - his shot didn't look very good today. I am more worried about Irvin and Walton Jr in this one. (Seniors who get on a roll are trouble) Oh !, maybe that means another good game for spike !

One note I put in another post....

Points in the paint in the first half of our game was 22-20, Purdue. In the second half, it was 20-8, Purdue. If Purdue limits their points in the paint, that in theory should be a good thing (if they aren't going ham elsewhere...).

 

[DrEss]

Keep the game close in the first half tomorrow by playing like the did in the 2nd half of their last matchup (40-37 Purdue). Then pound in the paint in the 2nd half taking advantage of their tough travel and 2nd game in two days. Purdue by 7.

 

[tjreese]

By the way, congratulations to Coach Beilein for becoming the all-time winningest coach in Michigan history with today's victory! Couldn't happen to a better guy.

He certainly presents himself as a great guy. I had an IU guy that worked near me that thought the Big coaches never cared for Beilien, but like you ...he certainly seems like a great guy.

 

[tjreese]

Keep the game close in the first half tomorrow by playing like the did in the 2nd half of their last matchup (40-37 Purdue). Then pound in the paint in the 2nd half taking advantage of their tough travel and 2nd game in two days. Purdue by 7.

Anything other than Michigan going off behind the arc adn I think Purdue wins...course defending that "may" open up more drives and such. Make it a high energy game..particularly on Walton may pay some dividends as well...course if Purdue gets through we need Minny to have to play a tough game as well

 

[boilernuke]

maybe. Since February 1st, Michigan has played like a top 10 team nationally by advanced metrics and been the best team in the Big Ten. It isn't as simple as if Purdue plays well they win. Michigan could still play good enough to beat that.

You mention advanced metrics, but since Feb 1, Mich is 6-3 and Purdue is 7-1, both having 5 away games. (This does not include today's tourney game.) If you want, we can include games before Feb 1 where it still shows Purdue knows how to win more. Sorry for using basic metrics.

Regardless, this is a matchup issue for Purdue which is why more are concerned here. I think it will be a close game, and nothing like the last meeting on much' court.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

He certainly presents himself as a great guy. I had an IU guy that worked near me that thought the Big coaches never cared for Beilien, but like you ...he certainly seems like a great guy.

I can only go on admittedly brief personal experience with Beilein. I was fortunate to meet him prior to a Michigan home football game (this was the first season of the RichRod era there, 2008). He was extremely friendly and had nothing but genuine praise for Matt Painter.

 

[tjreese]

One note I put in another post....

Points in the paint in the first half of our game was 22-20, Purdue. In the second half, it was 20-8, Purdue. If Purdue limits their points in the paint, that in theory should be a good thing (if they aren't going ham elsewhere...).

I expect Purdue to be Purdue and will defend out close to the three ball with Vince and Biggie, but will want to limit the two points in teh lane and be beat by the three ball. That said, Matt has keyed on the three ball a few games. I don't think Wilson is quite as fluid as Wagner and so I like many prefer to see Vince on Wagner...but boy would I LOVE to see Haas dominate inside every touch adn give up a couple of threes to them with him drawing fouls and wearing them out defending him inside. Haas no doubt is ready for a good game..if he can just get a jump start adn completely flip the concerns with another effective body inside. I would love to see Haas have a great game...and Walton control on the boards and some D to keep the ball out of his hands....but Purdue must have great secondary rotation on any drives by Michigan that bring help and Michigan has more length than Purdue...

 

[delish1]

maybe. Since February 1st, Michigan has played like a top 10 team nationally by advanced metrics and been the best team in the Big Ten. It isn't as simple as if Purdue plays well they win. Michigan could still play good enough to beat that. Now I'm not saying they would beat Purdue playing well, but they could and that would be one hell of an epic game to watch.

Pointing out that Illinois turned the ball over a lot when Michigan's D forces a lot of turnovers and Purdue turns it over a lot themselves is one of the last reasons for optimism for Purdue. I mean Illinois turned the ball over less often this year than Purdue in conference play.

I don't like this post but it is true. Michigan is a very good team right now. If it gets a 7 seed it could knock off a 2. But unless it makes the but it's looking at the 8/9 game which might kill any run.

It is a prime example of the seeding being a barrier for the big ten this year

 

[tjreese]

I can only go on admittedly brief personal experience with Beilein. I was fortunate to meet him prior to a Michigan home football game (this was the first season of the RichRod era there, 2008). He was extremely friendly and had nothing but genuine praise for Matt Painter.

Coaches have a lot more praise for Matt than some on this forum...go figure. I expect you are right as I have never seen anything but respect and manners in his actions. I thinmk Meyer is a big help to him as well....

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I can only go on admittedly brief personal experience with Beilein. I was fortunate to meet him prior to a Michigan home football game (this was the first season of the RichRod era there, 2008). He was extremely friendly and had nothing but genuine praise for Matt Painter.

Going back to a post around the time of the regular season match-up, I'd suggest that Matt Painter and John Beilein have one of the better relationships between any two conference coaches. At least from all appearances, nothing but mutual praise and respect, and although I could see the difficulty with the situation, you'd think it also had some role (no matter how small) in bringing Spike Albrecht to Purdue.

Fwiw, I have a couple of very good friends who are UM alums....also have nothing but praise for Coach Beilein.

 

[PU52Chevy]

Easy game plan.....play our game and get them in foul trouble.

That's their weakness.....depth....get the starters off the floor, especially their bigs and they make bad decisions.

Rebound , hit our free throws and get their big's in foul trouble.

Purdue 78 Meat Chicken 72

 

[boilernuke]

I don't like this post but it is true. Michigan is a very good team right now. If it gets a 7 seed it could knock off a 2. But unless it makes the but it's looking at the 8/9 game which might kill any run.

It is a prime example of the seeding being a barrier for the big ten this year

Have to disagree (see previous post by me). Ok, so they blew out a couple teams at home. They still went 6-3. If 6-3 is their best stretch, then I would not consider them a top 10 team.

 

[Professor Emeritus]

Going back to a post around the time of the regular season match-up, I'd suggest that Matt Painter and John Beilein have one of the better relationships between any two conference coaches. At least from all appearances, nothing but mutual praise and respect, and although I could see the difficulty with the situation, you'd think it also had some role (no matter how small) in bringing Spike Albrecht to Purdue.

Fwiw, I have a couple of very good friends who are UM alums....also have nothing but praise for Coach Beilein.

Indeed, Tex...nevertheless we all want Matt to kick Beilein's ass tomorrow...and in the Infiniti Coaches Charity Challenge! Ha!

 

[tjreese]

Easy game plan.....play our game and get them in foul trouble.

That's their weakness.....depth....get the starters off the floor, especially their bigs and they make bad decisions.

Rebound , hit our free throws and get their big's in foul trouble.

Purdue 78 Meat Chicken 72

I'll "FEEL" a lot better if I see teh Italian Stallion and the tall bald guy with anyone except Lamont Simpson who has made some horrible calls on Biggie. If Purdue gets two big guys reffing and seeing the game from a bigs perspective somewhat I'll prefer that over Simpson I believe.