Michigan versus the good guys in D.C.

[delish1]

Have to disagree (see previous post by me). Ok, so they blew out a couple teams at home. They still went 6-3. If 6-3 is their best stretch, then I would not consider them a top 10 team.

You're probably right. The loss to osu is not good. The other 2 losses are forgivable though. 2 points at nw and ot at Minnesota.

They are dangerous though

 

[FirstDownB]

I feel compelled to counterbalance some of the Michigan hype I am reading. That game on senior night a couple weeks ago was one data point. A lot of you are putting waaay to much stock into that one game. Kind of like last year's game up in Ann Arbor where they beat us. And then we turned around and beat them by 17 on our floor and by 17 on a neutral floor. A lot of the same players here on both sides.

Yeah, they are playing well. Guess who else is playing well? Pretty much every team left in the tournament. That's the way your first game goes when you have a double bye. Have they done anything more impressive than when they knocked out 1 seed IU last year? (And subsequently got throttled by 17 by Purdue)

Let's see what happens, but this is a team we should beat on a neutral floor by an average of 6-8 points.

 

[tjreese]

I feel compelled to counterbalance some of the Michigan hype I am reading. That game on senior night a couple weeks ago was one data point. A lot of you are putting waaay to much stock into that one game. Kind of like last year's game up in Ann Arbor where they beat us. And then we turned around and beat them by 17 on our floor and by 17 on a neutral floor. A lot of the same players here on both sides.

Yeah, they are playing well. Guess who else is playing well? Pretty much every team left in the tournament. That's the way your first game goes when you have a double bye. Have they done anything more impressive than when they knocked out 1 seed IU last year? (And subsequently got throttled by 17 by Purdue)

Let's see what happens, but this is a team we should beat on a neutral floor by an average of 6-8 points.

I think that would be the average of a series of game...maybe higher. I just hope Purdue doesn't see the anomaly

 

[Purdue0034]

Purdue 76, Michigan 74. Make no mistake our NCAA seeding is on the line in this one. Lose and we are a #5 seed, win and a #4 seed or #3 seed are still possible!

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Indeed, Tex...nevertheless we all want Matt to kick Beilein's ass tomorrow...and in the Infiniti Coaches Charity Challenge! Ha!

I hear you.

I'll "FEEL" a lot better if I see teh Italian Stallion and the tall bald guy with anyone except Lamont Simpson who has made some horrible calls on Biggie. If Purdue gets two big guys reffing and seeing the game from a bigs perspective somewhat I'll prefer that over Simpson I believe.

Ha-ha, TJ. I was hoping the same thing....DJ Carstensen for sure, maybe Steratore, and ANYONE but Lamont Simpson.

 

[tjreese]

I hear you.



Ha-ha, TJ. I was hoping the same thing....DJ Carstensen for sure, maybe Steratore, and ANYONE but Lamont Simpson.

ya know at this very moment I have some Makers Mark going on...running some retirement numbers and checking out some things in Germany later this year...and of course games later????

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

ya know at this very moment I have some Makers Mark going on...running some retirement numbers and checking out some things in Germany later this year...and of course games later????

Cheers; I'm saving for the weekend.....I might need it late Sunday afternoon......either way.

 

[tjreese]

Cheers; I'm saving for the weekend.....I might need it late Sunday afternoon......either way.

Let's hope the need is celebration...from the brother of a previous defensive back for Purdue (Derek Taylor DB for Purdue was J.T's brother)

 

[blockm2]

Have to disagree (see previous post by me). Ok, so they blew out a couple teams at home. They still went 6-3. If 6-3 is their best stretch, then I would not consider them a top 10 team.

I'm not saying they are a top 10 team, I'm saying they have performed like one the last 6-8 weeks. W/L record is not so pretty, but that includes lots of blowout wins and a few close losses. We know that a team like that will generally play better in the future than a similar team that had a less impressive scoring margin.

For the season Michigan ranked #2 in the Big Ten in scoring margin but was plagued by a bunch of close losses keeping them down in the standings. That's why they are in the middling seed land of NCAA tourney brackets. That doesn't mean you predict them to play like that going forward, however. Predictive measures like KenPom and Vegas see them as a far better team than their W/L record would indicate.

For the season Michigan has not been nearly as consistent as Purdue, which is why Purdue has had a better season. But Michigan's peak performance is arguably just as good as anything Purdue can do, it's just that their lows are lower. If Michigan has an off game, they lose to OSU at home. If they are on, they blow out SMU on a neutral court.

 

[BoilerGal74]

But Michigan's peak performance is arguably just as good as anything Purdue can do, it's just that their lows are lower.

I really don't think we have seen Purdue's peak performance yet....she said confidently!!!

 

[BoilerDaddy]

This is a very good Michigan team, much tougher than a typical 8 seed.

That said, I feel pretty good about this game. That first half against Michigan will be fresh in the Boilers' minds and they will be ready. Michigan's easy win against Illinois will also have the Boilers' attention.

 

[tjreese]

This is a very good Michigan team, much tougher than a typical 8 seed.

That said, I feel pretty good about this game. That first half against Michigan will be fresh in the Boilers' minds and they will be ready. Michigan's easy win against Illinois will also have the Boilers' attention.

The mental approach is important and as you said..mentally the Boilers will be better as Biggie gets his double double again which is about twice as many boards as he got the first game. No matter what thought...matching up on D is not ideal for Purdue. Will we see a LOT of hustle on teh perimeter between 1-3 with a "little" overplay towards the ball more than usual?

 

[nagemj02]

Easy game plan.....play our game and get them in foul trouble.

That's their weakness.....depth....get the starters off the floor, especially their bigs and they make bad decisions.

Rebound , hit our free throws and get their big's in foul trouble.

Purdue 78 Meat Chicken 72

I wouldn't say it's an easy game plan. Purdue tried to play their game and get UM in foul trouble in the 1st game and it didn't work out. Also, UM (not just this season, but historically under Beilein) does not foul very much. I agree that Purdue needs to control the tempo of the game but they obviously have to make some defensive adjustments tomorrow.

 

[boilernuke]

I'm not saying they are a top 10 team, I'm saying they have performed like one the last 6-8 weeks. W/L record is not so pretty, but that includes lots of blowout wins and a few close losses. We know that a team like that will generally play better in the future than a similar team that had a less impressive scoring margin.

For the season Michigan ranked #2 in the Big Ten in scoring margin but was plagued by a bunch of close losses keeping them down in the standings. That's why they are in the middling seed land of NCAA tourney brackets. That doesn't mean you predict them to play like that going forward, however. Predictive measures like KenPom and Vegas see them as a far better team than their W/L record would indicate.

For the season Michigan has not been nearly as consistent as Purdue, which is why Purdue has had a better season. But Michigan's peak performance is arguably just as good as anything Purdue can do, it's just that their lows are lower. If Michigan has an off game, they lose to OSU at home. If they are on, they blow out SMU on a neutral court.

Still, 6-3 is still not "performing like a top 10 team". Purdue went 7-1 during that same stretch. That's more in line with performing like a top ten team. You realize Purdue has also lost several close games and blew out other opponents throughout the season too. The Michigan game was the only double digit loss. I agree mi is playing much better now than earlier in the season. Not sure I agree their ceiling is as high as Purdue's. Purdue has a better D and plenty of 3 point shooting firepower. Purdue also has frontcourt strength that mi does not have. Mi did play well today. We will see if that will carry over against the Boilers.

I understand you are excited that your team is playing better toward the end of the season. That's cool. Just had to push the BS button on some of your claims and you have to admit, you have quite a few excuses listed above. Good luck tomorrow.

 

[CRBoiler]

Boilers will put the hammer down. Purdue staff has had time to analyze the loss & create a winning game plan. Michigan will not do better than last time. Biggie will get his, and everyone will be up for this game! Boiler Up!

 

[blockm2]

Still, 6-3 is still not "performing like a top 10 team". Purdue went 7-1 during that same stretch. That's more in line with performing like a top ten team. You realize Purdue has also lost several close games and blew out other opponents throughout the season too. The Michigan game was the only double digit loss. I agree mi is playing much better now than earlier in the season. Not sure I agree their ceiling is as high as Purdue's. Purdue has a better D and plenty of 3 point shooting firepower. Purdue also has frontcourt strength that mi does not have. Mi did play well today. We will see if that will carry over against the Boilers.

I understand you are excited that your team is playing better toward the end of the season. That's cool. Just had to push the BS button on some of your claims and you have to admit, you have quite a few excuses listed above. Good luck tomorrow.

I think you misunderstand the difference between performance and resume. Performance is predictive going forward and is pretty much your efficiency adjusted for opponent (and venue). Resume is wins and losses.

Michigan's performance has been outstanding recently, resume not quite so much. Why the difference? Blowout wins offset by some close losses. But if you are projecting how good a team is going to play going forward, you don't care about W/L record, you care about their performance measured by efficiency margins. So that's more of an accurate description of how good they actually are because it predicts future performance much, much better than actual W/L record does.


It's like looking at a team's pythagorean record in MLB vs their actual record.


And please realize, I'm not putting Purdue down. They deservedly won the conference and have been a better team this season. They are slight favorites tomorrow for a very good reason. I don't expect Michigan to win, but I think they have a realistic chance. Purdue is the only team in the conference I would pick as a favorite over Michigan on a neutral court right now. But I think there is a real difference in the quality of Michigan the last 6-7 weeks or so with how they played earlier in the year. Their last 13 conference games, they've played defense like a top 3 D in the conference. Their previous 6 games were ugly. Consequently their KenPom D rating has risen from #185 to #77. Still overall numbers are not great, but recent play has been far better.