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Lying in the weeds

northside100

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I'm not proclaiming victory for this season, there is still a material chance that this team falls short of expectations in March and April, but it's interesting how quiet posters who declare that this roster and Painter's philosophical approach will never work in the NCAAT have been.

For those that fall in that group, has something fundamentally changed in your view that has caused you not to voice your concern the last two weeks? If not (and I'd assume that's generally not the case), do you generally post when you're frustrated and that's why we haven't heard from you? Have you been able to enjoy the wins the last few weeks or has the December success only increased your pending sense of doom for March and April?

I'm not posting to bait anyone, I understand much of the frustration expressed here and am genuinely interested in 1) how those who are most skeptical are reacting to the success to date and 2) whether you approve with how MP is managing this team or if there are areas you'd like to see change (play Colvin and Heide more, show some zone defense, less feeding the post, etc.) to better prepare for the NCAAT.
 
Uhm,....because we seen this before in NOV and DEC (the well deserves success) the past few years and its not March/NCAA time yet. I am proud of the team so far.
 
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Uhm,....because we seen this before in NOV and DEC (the well deserves success) the past few years and its not March/NCAA time yet. I am proud of the team so far.
Totally agree, I completely understand why there would be continued skepticism, that's why I asked the questions.
 
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Well its similar (better but similar) to the early success we saw last year. And we know how that turned out.

Nothing that we have done so far could even give an indication of what will happen in March so I'm not sure what you expect those people to say at this time?

Yes some people love to jump in when the team or a player has a bad game as if it is some sort of proof that nothing has changed. On the other hand some people on the other side love to jump in after a good performance as if that is some sort of proof that things are different. The only thing that matters in December is building the resume. The only thing that matters in March is winning.
 
Isn't that sort of the nature of message boards? I don't go to other teams boards, so I don't know this for fact, but I would suspect it is "quieter" when the team is playing well and winning. No?
 
Besides the NU game I really don't know what anyone would have to complain about?? I'm sure there are those that are just waiting for the next loss to appear, but again, I have to think that is true on all teams boards.
 
I'm not proclaiming victory for this season, there is still a material chance that this team falls short of expectations in March and April, but it's interesting how quiet posters who declare that this roster and Painter's philosophical approach will never work in the NCAAT have been.

For those that fall in that group, has something fundamentally changed in your view that has caused you not to voice your concern the last two weeks? If not (and I'd assume that's generally not the case), do you generally post when you're frustrated and that's why we haven't heard from you? Have you been able to enjoy the wins the last few weeks or has the December success only increased your pending sense of doom for March and April?

I'm not posting to bait anyone, I understand much of the frustration expressed here and am genuinely interested in 1) how those who are most skeptical are reacting to the success to date and 2) whether you approve with how MP is managing this team or if there are areas you'd like to see change (play Colvin and Heide more, show some zone defense, less feeding the post, etc.) to better prepare for the NCAAT.

I believe in what Painter is doing and his system, but for sure we need to play Colvin and Heide as much as he can. I think those 2 along with Lance Jones (who already gets plenty of time) are the key to success in the tourney. They add a level of athleticism and shooting to the 1-3 positions that we havent had. We also need to work on ball handling vs the press, but Jones helps enormously on this for sure.

Also our starting Sophomore backcourt being a year older should help.

I dont understand Purdue fans rooting against us, there are a few, some are skeptical, but i do see additions over the last 2 epic tourney fails.
 
I think this season will be different but obviously we won't know until it occurs or if the season gives us some alarming trends.

What many people who freaked out about the NCAA loss last year failed to recognize was that from 2/4/23 until Purdue's season ended:
  • Purdue was just 7-5 against what really wasn't a murderer's row of a schedule
  • Purdue's efficiency rank was just 30th overall (so more like an 8 seed than a 1 seed)
  • Purdue's offensive efficiency was just 21st
  • Purdue's defensive efficiency was just 53rd
  • Purdue shot just 28.6% from 3 point range (that was 348th nationally)
  • Purdue was 245th in turnovers and 312th in forcing turnovers
This wasn't an NCAA tournament meltdown so much as it was relying on two true freshman guards over the course of a grueling 35 game schedule and those guards were banged up and worn down. The coaching staff failed to surround them (and Edey) with shooters and didn't have a true defensive stopper on the perimeter.

I think having Lance Jones be more of what we hoped David Jenkins would be lessens the likelihood we have a similar scenario. Likewise, I think having our freshman guards become sophomores lessens the chances they burn out. But we will find out when we find out and I for one am going to enjoy the journey rather than lament the possibility of another March disappointment.
 
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I think this season will be different but obviously we won't know until it occurs or if the season gives us some alarming trends.

What many people who freaked out about the NCAA loss last year failed to recognize was that from 2/4/23 until Purdue's season ended:
  • Purdue was just 7-5 against what really wasn't a murderer's row of a schedule
  • Purdue's efficiency rank was just 30th overall (so more like an 8 seed than a 1 seed)
  • Purdue's offensive efficiency was just 21st
  • Purdue's defensive efficiency was just 53rd
  • Purdue shot just 28.6% from 3 point range (that was 348th nationally)
  • Purdue was 245th in turnovers and 312th in forcing turnovers
This wasn't an NCAA tournament meltdown so much as it was relying on two true freshman guards over the course of a grueling 35 game schedule and those guards were banged up and worn down. The coaching staff failed to surround them (and Edey) with shooters and didn't have a true defensive stopper on the perimeter.

I think having Lance Jones be more of what we hoped David Jenkins would be lessens the likelihood we have a similar scenario. Likewise, I think having our freshman guards become sophomores likewise lessens the chances they burn out. But we will find out when we find out and I for one am going to enjoy the journey rather than lament the possibility of another March disappointment.
Agree 100%. The emphasis on last year's NCAA Tournament loss obscures the fact that last year's team teetered over the entire last month of the season. By mid-February teams figured out it was far easier to bully a couple freshman gaurds into mistakes than it is to sell out stopping Edey. Fletch and Braden probably did wear down as a result.

This year's team is more mature and experienced. Fletch and Braden have been through it all before. Jones/Colvin/Heide also give the team more athleticism. We'll see if it makes a difference in March. My gut tells me this year's team is better and deeper.
 
Well its similar (better but similar) to the early success we saw last year. And we know how that turned out.

Nothing that we have done so far could even give an indication of what will happen in March so I'm not sure what you expect those people to say at this time?

Yes some people love to jump in when the team or a player has a bad game as if it is some sort of proof that nothing has changed. On the other hand some people on the other side love to jump in after a good performance as if that is some sort of proof that things are different. The only thing that matters in December is building the resume. The only thing that matters in March is winning.

It does seem like for some Purdue fans big wins and other positive things only matter in March, but disappointing losses and other bad things are always proof that this team is vulnerable and can lose to anybody.

I can't really fault that mentality, I guess. Still, it's kindof a bizzaro mind set for fans of a team that has won 39 of its last 46 games. It's like we're just waiting for the other shoe to drop.
 
I think this season will be different but obviously we won't know until it occurs or if the season gives us some alarming trends.

What many people who freaked out about the NCAA loss last year failed to recognize was that from 2/4/23 until Purdue's season ended:
  • Purdue was just 7-5 against what really wasn't a murderer's row of a schedule
  • Purdue's efficiency rank was just 30th overall (so more like an 8 seed than a 1 seed)
  • Purdue's offensive efficiency was just 21st
  • Purdue's defensive efficiency was just 53rd
  • Purdue shot just 28.6% from 3 point range (that was 348th nationally)
  • Purdue was 245th in turnovers and 312th in forcing turnovers
This wasn't an NCAA tournament meltdown so much as it was relying on two true freshman guards over the course of a grueling 35 game schedule and those guards were banged up and worn down. The coaching staff failed to surround them (and Edey) with shooters and didn't have a true defensive stopper on the perimeter.

I think having Lance Jones be more of what we hoped David Jenkins would be lessens the likelihood we have a similar scenario. Likewise, I think having our freshman guards become sophomores lessens the chances they burn out. But we will find out when we find out and I for one am going to enjoy the journey rather than lament the possibility of another March disappointment.

Good post. It wasn’t as pronounced, but Purdue faded in the previous year as well.

I really want to see Purdue finish strong down the stretch this season, heading into the NCAA Tournament. I think that there are several reasons to believe that this year will be different, starting with the backcourt, but none of us have a crystal ball to see the future, so we’ll just have to see how it plays out.
 
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This is the key. It is just the nature of a lot of Purdue fans because of what we’ve witnessed so many times before.
I remember Colts’ fans being the same after the 2005 season, but then the Colts finally broke through in the following season. It’s a new season and Purdue has some really mentally tough kids, from what I can see. This is not a prediction, but I like their chances.
 
This is the key. It is just the nature of a lot of Purdue fans because of what we’ve witnessed so many times before.
Sure, I get that. I've felt the same way.

I think another thing that makes this Purdue team so hard to figure is that it has done remarkably well against top-tier competition over the past couple years but has stumbled against middling teams.
 
I'm not proclaiming victory for this season, there is still a material chance that this team falls short of expectations in March and April, but it's interesting how quiet posters who declare that this roster and Painter's philosophical approach will never work in the NCAAT have been.

For those that fall in that group, has something fundamentally changed in your view that has caused you not to voice your concern the last two weeks? If not (and I'd assume that's generally not the case), do you generally post when you're frustrated and that's why we haven't heard from you? Have you been able to enjoy the wins the last few weeks or has the December success only increased your pending sense of doom for March and April?

I'm not posting to bait anyone, I understand much of the frustration expressed here and am genuinely interested in 1) how those who are most skeptical are reacting to the success to date and 2) whether you approve with how MP is managing this team or if there are areas you'd like to see change (play Colvin and Heide more, show some zone defense, less feeding the post, etc.) to better prepare for the NCAAT.
Purdue has enough depth where no one needs to play more
than 30 minutes a game. Fresher legs wears opponents out /builds
confidence, including March. Would probably help with that huge FG
drought in 2nd half against Arizona. That's where I see improvement
coming from moving forward.
 
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I think this season will be different but obviously we won't know until it occurs or if the season gives us some alarming trends.

What many people who freaked out about the NCAA loss last year failed to recognize was that from 2/4/23 until Purdue's season ended:
  • Purdue was just 7-5 against what really wasn't a murderer's row of a schedule
  • Purdue's efficiency rank was just 30th overall (so more like an 8 seed than a 1 seed)
  • Purdue's offensive efficiency was just 21st
  • Purdue's defensive efficiency was just 53rd
  • Purdue shot just 28.6% from 3 point range (that was 348th nationally)
  • Purdue was 245th in turnovers and 312th in forcing turnovers
This wasn't an NCAA tournament meltdown so much as it was relying on two true freshman guards over the course of a grueling 35 game schedule and those guards were banged up and worn down. The coaching staff failed to surround them (and Edey) with shooters and didn't have a true defensive stopper on the perimeter.

I think having Lance Jones be more of what we hoped David Jenkins would be lessens the likelihood we have a similar scenario. Likewise, I think having our freshman guards become sophomores lessens the chances they burn out. But we will find out when we find out and I for one am going to enjoy the journey rather than lament the possibility of another March disappointment.
very very few people "failed to realize" that our slide started long before the tournament.
With an intact roster we should still win that game 99 times out of 100.
 
I believe in what Painter is doing and his system, but for sure we need to play Colvin and Heide as much as he can. I think those 2 along with Lance Jones (who already gets plenty of time) are the key to success in the tourney. They add a level of athleticism and shooting to the 1-3 positions that we havent had. We also need to work on ball handling vs the press, but Jones helps enormously on this for sure.

Also our starting Sophomore backcourt being a year older should help.

I dont understand Purdue fans rooting against us, there are a few, some are skeptical, but i do see additions over the last 2 epic tourney fails.
No we don't need more Colvin and Heide. (They'll be great players in due time)

BUT did you not just watch Purdue's back court CLEARLY out play "the best back court in college basketball" this past Saturday. Purdue needed their freshman guards to become sophomores, and they did that.

Anyone calling for less mins out of Smith and Loyer are crazy.
 
No we don't need more Colvin and Heide. (They'll be great players in due time)

BUT did you not just watch Purdue's back court CLEARLY out play "the best back court in college basketball" this past Saturday. Purdue needed their freshman guards to become sophomores, and they did that.

Anyone calling for less mins out of Smith and Loyer are crazy.
People want more Colvin and Heide because they bring athleticism that we historically lack.
People want less minutes for Smith and Loyer so they don't get worn down again.
They were great Saturday. Still basing decisions off of one game is not ideal.
 
People want more Colvin and Heide because they bring athleticism that we historically lack.
People want less minutes for Smith and Loyer so they don't get worn down again.
They were great Saturday. Still basing decisions off of one game is not ideal.
How about decisions after wins against more quad 1 and top 10 teams then anyone else even close in the country.

NOTHING needs to change right now.

Smith and Loyer aren't Smith and Loyer from last year.
 
No we don't need more Colvin and Heide. (They'll be great players in due time)

BUT did you not just watch Purdue's back court CLEARLY out play "the best back court in college basketball" this past Saturday. Purdue needed their freshman guards to become sophomores, and they did that.

Anyone calling for less mins out of Smith and Loyer are crazy.

What Purdue really needs is consistent performance from Loyer. When he plays like he did against Arizona, I like Purdue’s chances against anyone.

One of the big keys in the 2019 run was Cline catching fire. I am hoping for something similar from Loyer this season.
 
very very few people "failed to realize" that our slide started long before the tournament.
With an intact roster we should still win that game 99 times out of 100.
I think 99 out of 100 is way too high given how Purdue was playing at the time. If Purdue was playing like an 8 seed rather than a 1 seed (and the metrics say they were), the matchup was much closer to a 4 vs 13 or 3 vs 14 matchup than a 1 vs 16. If you look at historical results of those matchups, 4's beat 13's 79% of the time and 3's beat 14's 85% of the time.
 
I remember Colts’ fans being the same after the 2005 season, but then the Colts finally broke through in the following season. It’s a new season and Purdue has some really mentally tough kids, from what I can see. This is not a prediction, but I like their chances.
"We don't want an undefeated season, we want a Superbowl Championship!" Irate fan coming out of the stadium after an early playoff exit that year. Heck, I enjoy a team that wins the majority of the time, that way I know if I'm spending the time to watch/support them I'm at least going to be entertained doing it.
 
How about decisions after wins against more quad 1 and top 10 teams then anyone else even close in the country.

NOTHING needs to change right now.

Smith and Loyer aren't Smith and Loyer from last year.
I see you are a big picture guy
 
I'm not proclaiming victory for this season, there is still a material chance that this team falls short of expectations in March and April, but it's interesting how quiet posters who declare that this roster and Painter's philosophical approach will never work in the NCAAT have been.

For those that fall in that group, has something fundamentally changed in your view that has caused you not to voice your concern the last two weeks? If not (and I'd assume that's generally not the case), do you generally post when you're frustrated and that's why we haven't heard from you? Have you been able to enjoy the wins the last few weeks or has the December success only increased your pending sense of doom for March and April?

I'm not posting to bait anyone, I understand much of the frustration expressed here and am genuinely interested in 1) how those who are most skeptical are reacting to the success to date and 2) whether you approve with how MP is managing this team or if there are areas you'd like to see change (play Colvin and Heide more, show some zone defense, less feeding the post, etc.) to better prepare for the NCAAT.
did you read the post I made about the daughter that saw ghosts in her bedroom in the Purdue AZ thread or correlations in general. Opinions are not driven by logic many times, but concluding an answer based upon a link between two variables which may or may not be causal. We have all done it sometime. The opinions are what we see or hear many times and supported by Osmosis...it is how we roll as humans and to think we are the smartest out of the animal kingdom
 
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People want more Colvin and Heide because they bring athleticism that we historically lack.
People want less minutes for Smith and Loyer so they don't get worn down again.
They were great Saturday. Still basing decisions off of one game is not ideal.
Very proud of this team so far, but what matter most is success in March.

I'll be disappointed this December if Colvin and Heide don't get 20+ minutes in the next few games.
 
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I believe in what Painter is doing and his system, but for sure we need to play Colvin and Heide as much as he can. I think those 2 along with Lance Jones (who already gets plenty of time) are the key to success in the tourney. They add a level of athleticism and shooting to the 1-3 positions that we havent had. We also need to work on ball handling vs the press, but Jones helps enormously on this for sure.

Also our starting Sophomore backcourt being a year older should help.

I dont understand Purdue fans rooting against us, there are a few, some are skeptical, but i do see additions over the last 2 epic tourney fails.
Welcome Back, Lee!
🚂
 
Treating it like Festivus...

Serenity now!

naS.gif
 
It wasn’t as pronounced, but Purdue faded in the previous year as well.
Are you speaking mostly about Ivey's sophomore year (in addition to last year)? IMO the team got better as the season went on until the UNT loss the season before that, as did the Carsen / Cline year. The DM/Haas/VE/PJ team improved significantly from the start of the year with the exception of when VE got hurt in February and Haas got knocked out of the NCAAT.

The COVID / NCAAT cancellation year was a mess (wildly inconsistent) from the start, IMO.
 
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How about decisions after wins against more quad 1 and top 10 teams then anyone else even close in the country.

NOTHING needs to change right now.

Smith and Loyer aren't Smith and Loyer from last year.
I get where you’re coming from but nothing needs to change? We need to always be improving as the year goes on. Other teams will be improving and we need to continue to get better to match that so they aren’t on the same level. Those wins are great and amazing and will help get a good seed by March. But we have a target on our back and can’t be stagnant by just doing the same thing over and over and think we will be fine the rest of the year.

We need to take care of the ball, figure out ways to win on the road/neutral site (talking about the tourney) when we aren’t hitting our avg 3p% because more likely than not, we are going to have a game or two where we aren’t hitting from the outside. I believe that’s where Heide and Colvin can help out. Their athleticism and ability to drive to the hole/be a threat to run in transition and dunk/catch oops. We need them getting more mins so they can gain experience on offense and defense so they are up to speed by tourney time. We need someone who can step up if a guard is in foul trouble.

We need to continue to get better against the press. We have done well so far, but we need to continue to attack it. Need to also hit our free throws because there more than likely will be a game down the stretch where we will need to hit their FTs.

And Arizona showed us we better practice vs zone because we will see some version of it in the tourney/maybe even in the B1G if teams are outmatched by us/desperate to stop us.

Don’t get me wrong, we look great and seem
To be a lot different than last year. However, we can always improve and change things to get better (and I’m sure Paint is reminding the team of that).

The good thing of all that is that it’s all something the team can get better at as the season goes on!
 
I get where you’re coming from but nothing needs to change? We need to always be improving as the year goes on. Other teams will be improving and we need to continue to get better to match that so they aren’t on the same level. Those wins are great and amazing and will help get a good seed by March. But we have a target on our back and can’t be stagnant by just doing the same thing over and over and think we will be fine the rest of the year.

We need to take care of the ball, figure out ways to win on the road/neutral site (talking about the tourney) when we aren’t hitting our avg 3p% because more likely than not, we are going to have a game or two where we aren’t hitting from the outside. I believe that’s where Heide and Colvin can help out. Their athleticism and ability to drive to the hole/be a threat to run in transition and dunk/catch oops. We need them getting more mins so they can gain experience on offense and defense so they are up to speed by tourney time. We need someone who can step up if a guard is in foul trouble.

We need to continue to get better against the press. We have done well so far, but we need to continue to attack it. Need to also hit our free throws because there more than likely will be a game down the stretch where we will need to hit their FTs.

And Arizona showed us we better practice vs zone because we will see some version of it in the tourney/maybe even in the B1G if teams are outmatched by us/desperate to stop us.

Don’t get me wrong, we look great and seem
To be a lot different than last year. However, we can always improve and change things to get better (and I’m sure Paint is reminding the team of that).

The good thing of all that is that it’s all something the team can get better at as the season goes on!
I don't think anyone is saying that the team doesn't need to continue to get better. I may end up being surprised but it's pretty clear to me at this point that success in March and April will be on the backs up 1) Zach 2) Braden and Fletch 3) defense and stones from Jones 4) productive role play of the three headed monster at the 4.

I view any productivity from Cam and Myles as important minutes to manage Fletch and Braden's workload but I'm just not seeing anything to indicate that these guys will play anything beyond a support role this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see either or both have monster years next season.
 
On the contrary I have seen comments up and down this board saying something like: this is great but let’s see what happens in March. One can appreciate the athleticism added by Jones and improvement in the Sophomore guards while still having a wait and see outlook. If Purdue is a one seed the pressure will be immense. We hope they can handle it and should as they will be playing a team they’d beat by 20+ in November/December. But they have lost to these type teams multiple times. Meanwhile we can all enjoy the early success and the ride thru the BIG while looking for signs that this team is ready to do big things in March.
 
No we don't need more Colvin and Heide. (They'll be great players in due time)

BUT did you not just watch Purdue's back court CLEARLY out play "the best back court in college basketball" this past Saturday. Purdue needed their freshman guards to become sophomores, and they did that.

Anyone calling for less mins out of Smith and Loyer are crazy.
Teams can’t get easy buckets because of big maple so everything is mid range out also the big guys fouls out so it’s paradise inside for Edey
 
I think this season will be different but obviously we won't know until it occurs or if the season gives us some alarming trends.

What many people who freaked out about the NCAA loss last year failed to recognize was that from 2/4/23 until Purdue's season ended:
  • Purdue was just 7-5 against what really wasn't a murderer's row of a schedule
  • Purdue's efficiency rank was just 30th overall (so more like an 8 seed than a 1 seed)
  • Purdue's offensive efficiency was just 21st
  • Purdue's defensive efficiency was just 53rd
  • Purdue shot just 28.6% from 3 point range (that was 348th nationally)
  • Purdue was 245th in turnovers and 312th in forcing turnovers
This wasn't an NCAA tournament meltdown so much as it was relying on two true freshman guards over the course of a grueling 35 game schedule and those guards were banged up and worn down. The coaching staff failed to surround them (and Edey) with shooters and didn't have a true defensive stopper on the perimeter.

I think having Lance Jones be more of what we hoped David Jenkins would be lessens the likelihood we have a similar scenario. Likewise, I think having our freshman guards become sophomores lessens the chances they burn out. But we will find out when we find out and I for one am going to enjoy the journey rather than lament the possibility of another March disappointment.
Totally agree that team was a victim of their own over-achievement. It wasn't really that great of a team but caught lightning in a bottle in Portland and became ranked above their pay grade the rest of the way.

As to how far this team goes - on any given night somebody gets hot/somebody gets cold and and it can be over. Long before the NCAA tournament became the national sensation it is today - I always thought (and still do) the conference title was the bigger achievement.
 
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On the contrary I have seen comments up and down this board saying something like: this is great but let’s see what happens in March. One can appreciate the athleticism added by Jones and improvement in the Sophomore guards while still having a wait and see outlook. If Purdue is a one seed the pressure will be immense. We hope they can handle it and should as they will be playing a team they’d beat by 20+ in November/December. But they have lost to these type teams multiple times. Meanwhile we can all enjoy the early success and the ride thru the BIG while looking for signs that this team is ready to do big things in March.
IMO it's been five years since Purdue has had a back court that is close to the level that these guys are playing at. It's understandable that fans are frustrated with the last three years but those back courts were immensely flawed.

No guarantee that things don't go sideways for this team and I would like to see MP spread the backcourt PT out more to keep guys fresh but this team composition feels significantly more complete.
 
Well its similar (better but similar) to the early success we saw last year. And we know how that turned out.

Nothing that we have done so far could even give an indication of what will happen in March so I'm not sure what you expect those people to say at this time?

Yes some people love to jump in when the team or a player has a bad game as if it is some sort of proof that nothing has changed. On the other hand some people on the other side love to jump in after a good performance as if that is some sort of proof that things are different. The only thing that matters in December is building the resume. The only thing that matters in March is winning.
But things are different. Surely everyone sees that.
 
did you read the post I made about the daughter that saw ghosts in her bedroom in the Purdue AZ thread or correlations in general. Opinions are not driven by logic many times, but concluding an answer based upon a link between two variables which may or may not be causal. We have all done it sometime. The opinions are what we see or hear many times and supported by Osmosis...it is how we roll as humans and to think we are the smartest out of the animal kingdom
We need more statistical modeling conversations on this board. :)
 
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Totally agree that team was a victim of their own over-achievement. It wasn't really that great of a team but caught lightning in a bottle in Portland and became ranked above their pay grade the rest of the way.

As to how far this team goes - on any given night somebody gets hot/somebody gets cold and and it can be over. Long before the NCAA tournament became the national sensation it is today - I always thought (and still do) the conference title was the bigger achievement.
I can't agree with this. Last year's team was really, realy good. Yes, they beat some great teams early. Then they won the B1G by 3 games and won the B1G tournament. They simply choked in the NCAA tournament. They were tight, afraid to shoot, and turned the ball over. But they did not lose that game because the other team was better.
 
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