Rather than looking at contractual agreements, the potential payouts from Fox and BIG 10 network can pay off any existing buy out that exists. If Fox wants it to happen, no existing contract is going to stand in their way! And it doesn’t appear as if the BIG is interested in academics or historic loyalties anymore
Let's Play B1G Dominos.
- Thread starter FLBoiler75
- Start date
USC and UCLA were both accepted into the BIG in part because of their academics. They are much more natural fits academically than schools you’ve mentioned - Iowa State, Pitt, Tennessee, Kentucky.
It doesn’t matter what school it is - $50M+ is a large amount to just slough off as you seem to be doing.
I disagree with Stanford in 2a but would not be heartbroken over it either.
I disagree with 2b in that we need the SEC to start poaching the ACC to allow us to get teams out of that horrendous TV deal they have until 2035. so I think we get to 20 with ND and five pac schools or 6 pac schools this year and when the SEC makes their move we go to 24 getting 4 of the 5 AAU members out of the ACC in a year or two.
I like your divisions idea though.
I think rather than the PAC raiding the B12, the B12 and Pac merge to form their own super conference the Big West at 18 teams or so.
ND is contractually bound to only enter the ACC if they choose to give up Independent status. I cannot believe that the ACC would let them join the B1G. It would be too much of a slam to their conference.
Which is why the BT will wait for the SEC to raid the ACC and seep in, maybe with the BEast to finish it off and save the Golden Gomers from the horrible contract their AD signed with the ACC.... no more ACC, no more obligation to join.
I basically agree with these. UNC gets you Raleigh and Charlotte, which are two of the top 30 or so media markets in the country. Duke is kind of the Notre Dame of the south, in my opinion. Lots of fans in the region who are not alumni. Even if Oregon doesn't have a huge population, both Seattle and Portland are pretty large media markets. Beyond those four, I guess I'd pick either Stanford or Cal (probably Cal because of its alumni base) to get into the Bay Area market.
Notre Dame is fine, I guess.
Canzano: Pac-12 gut punch comes with a cost
Ex-Fox Sports Network executive weighs in; could Oregon-Washington be next for Big Ten?
www.johncanzano.com
Read the above link. He goes more into the numbers than our mere assumptions.
In summary, he says Oregon/Washington doesn’t add enough value. The pie has gotten so big that very few schools can grow the pie anymore. ND can. He doesn’t mention UNC but I assume they can with their huge National brand.
he also didn’t mention anything about how currently the BTN gets money from every CA resident…. He only talks about Southern California, which is what I was saying regarding Stanford being a realistic option.
Tv markets don’t matter as much with streaming. It’s about subscriptions now and geographic location is more or less irrelevant. Football rules, too. I would be disappointed if we let duke and North Carolina in and had to share revenue with them. Look at last years viewer number rankings. The top 18 teams only Oregon and ND are not in B10 or SEC. To me the only teams I would take are
Oregon (10)
Notre Dame (9, but misleading as they were so accessible
Oklahoma State (22, top B12 team except OK and TX)
Clemson
Florida state
Miami
I think the last 3 are more likely headed to SEC.
i think if analytics show strong subscription potential for Washington or Iowa state they would be the next two. Washington might be critical to have 4 west coast teams which could be a different division and may be necessary for non-revenue sports. Oklahoma State hasn’t been discussed much but with T Boone Pickens money and strong fan support it could be a good move to prevent sec from getting them.
AAU membership is still a requirement for anyone not named ND.
While schools may not add more to the pie than they take on the surface, the added clout in negotiations from a 24 team league probably balances the scales. And in regards to UWash, Ore, Az, and either Co or Utah they make natural divisions that keep the travel more reasonable because with just the LA schools, this may fall apart as unworkable on travel alone.
I am warming up to the Stanford idea, in large part because they more I read on ND, the more I realize they are screwed and not the masters of their own fate. The "Must join the ACC if they join a conference" is absolute, no clause for breaking it. Additionally as this is also lining up as a battle of networks, ND through their ACC contract is obligated to ESPN/Disney. ESPN is not looking like they will get much if anything from the BT in this round of tv negotiations, so they will not be in a generous mood to let ND jump to the Fox side of the house. Additionally any exception to allow ND out of the ACC has to be UNANIMOUS..... How much do you have to pay Wake Forset to slit their own throats and screw over their athletics department? The full memebers of the ACC can leave and pay the horrendous price of not owning their home games for 14 years, but ND cannot even go that route without the ACC's and ESPNs permission. If the Big Four of UNC, Duke, Wake, and NCSt decide to stick together no matter what, ND is their hostage. ND can try to sue saying FSU, Clemson, and Miami leaving voids their contract, but they weren't smart enough to get that clause in the contract so it likely would go nowhere. The only way ND gets out of that deal is if UNC decides to turn its back on its tobacco road brethren and bolt for the BT with UVA and GaTech. BC, VaTech, and Syracuse face staying in the diminished ACC or try to prop up the BEast again, neither choice is appealing and Duke will be competing with ND to get the last seat in the BT, and UNC may have a big say in who that seat goes to. In short, ND so screwed themselves to the floor with the ACC contract I am beginning to see no way they can navigate their way to the BT and as long as Wake Forest claims their is an ACC to be part of, ND is stuck with them.
Telling Oregon and UW they would have to take less than a full share would be interesting. Maybe offer 2 “less than full share” slots to Oregon, UW and Stanford and the first 2 schools to agree get them?Canzano: Pac-12 gut punch comes with a cost
Ex-Fox Sports Network executive weighs in; could Oregon-Washington be next for Big Ten?
Read the above link. He goes more into the numbers than our mere assumptions.
In summary, he says Oregon/Washington doesn’t add enough value. The pie has gotten so big that very few schools can grow the pie anymore. ND can. He doesn’t mention UNC but I assume they can with their huge National brand.
he also didn’t mention anything about how currently the BTN gets money from every CA resident…. He only talks about Southern California, which is what I was saying regarding Stanford being a realistic option.
I think everyone forgets that the only school the BT has even considered for membership that was not an AAU school is ND.... That means OkSt, Clemson, FSU and several others are not going to be considered. Kansas would only be offered if we get to 23 and need one last piece to finish the puzzle..... ND has so screwed themselves with their ACC contract, they have no say in where they go as long as the ACC exists in any form.
Doubt AAU will be a hard requirement. ND is an exception, why couldn’t Oklahoma state be? I mean there’s talk the new super conferences will separate from their academic ties…
OK ST brings nothing to the BIG. Nothing.
OkSt is no better than IowaSt as an addition.... next to nothing...... additionally I don't see the university presidents giving up the AAU requirement for anyone but ND, its a BIG matter of pride for the Big Ten presidents and faculty.... far more than casual fans realize
Any AAU exceptions will be for schools who would increase the share of TV revenue for each school. OK State would decrease the revenue share per school.
Exactly. The people saying that Iowa State, OK State, Kansas, and Pitt are “obvious fits” for the BIG obviously haven’t thought things through. Each of those schools will be a net drain on the BIG.
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I agree with Iowa state, Kansas, and Pitt. I think oklahoma state would be a net increase in revenue. If you research their tv viewership numbers over the past several year they are third to Oklahoma and Texas. Also, their facilities are considered top notch already thanks to $650m from Boone Pickens. 247 ranks it 12th best right behind Texas and Oklahoma. Their attendance averages about 97% compared to Kansas (53%), Pitt (62%), Iowa state (89%), Stanford (91%), usc (88%)… just shows their fans commitment to supporting them. Also I think there is no B12 buyout past 2025 so they may just have to wait the final year vs ACC which will be very expensive so I just don’t see us recruiting anyone from the ACC as they will be diverting their revenue towards a buyout and not their athletic program.
They are a shit school that adds little to nothing to the conference. AAU membership matters unless you are Notre Dame, and OkSU is so far form that standard they cannot see it from where they are. Its a complete non-starter. Kansas has a MUCH better chance of an invite than OkSt ever will, and that's pretty slim.
I’m assuming it was wolegib who made the suggestions for Kansas and Pitt because I have him blocked and I didn’t see who posted it, nonsensical. If Oregon and Washington reportedly can’t make revenue neutral with their additions surely Kansas and Pitt don’t move the needle. He doesn’t think anything through before posting.
I like taking Oregon and WAshington and sticking at 18 or going to 20 if other AAU schools offer.
my 1..2..3.. are Notre Dame, Stanford, and UNC. agree 100 percent on Oregan and would actually like to drop them down a notch with their blatant outside money manipulation over the last decade. Can't see that sustainable for generations and Stanford is a much better school with more to offer the league from an academic standpoint
When schools like Baylor and OkSt are considered for admittance, Purdue better be ready to go to the MAC because academics and tradition have been thrown in the rubbish and we don't bring enough cash in a dollars only conference. We would be dumped with NU, IU, and UMinn right down the dumpster.
TV markets matter a lot. From all accounts, Fox helped drive this deal. BT expansion has been almost exclusively about money. And still the biggest revenue stream is from traditional TV eyeballs.
- Rutgers added for NYC market.
- Maryland added for DC market.
Why hasn’t the BT jumped at Oregon effectively begging to get in? They have good fans, Sterling brand, AAU, and huge financial backing. It’s because they don’t have the TV sets.
The BT makes so much money per school that the bar to get in is now ridiculously high. BT has been telling us for the past week that if you don’t grow the pie, you’re not in. Essentially, if you’re not ND, then we’re fine.
So if the BT is turning away Washington and Oregon, suggesting Kansas/OK ST/Iowa st/Pitt is a complete joke.
The BIG isn’t turning away Washington and Oregon - they are telling them to be patient. What happens with them is somewhat dependent on what ND. It’s obvious ND is the top choice. The BIG can go in any number of directions and is in the drivers seat right now. I do think Washington and Oregon are next on the list and Stanford might be as well.
Maybe… sounds like Oregon might be paired with ND. But my point is that:
1. TV markets drive revenue, which drives BT decision making
2. if Oregon isn’t strong enough to be added on their own merits (regardless of what ND does) then obviously schools in a tier below have a shot.
After seeing that Stanford has a higher media value than Oregon, I withdraw all objections to adding the tree. I stand convinced and corrected.
I think the reason Oregon and Washington are being put on hold is once we accept them, the PAC becomes insolvent and we want to be ready to decide if we take one or two more just to form a Far West division, and that depends on ND. I think we go to 20 teams this year or next with at least 3 more far west teams just to balance schedules and travel. No, they won't all grow the pot, but they grow the brand and would make the final conference far more stable, agile, and sensible.
Maryland and Rutgers were 10 years ago before streaming when Delaney forced everyone to get BTN through cable carriers and forced it as the extra sports package. So BTN was getting $x per premium sports subscriber whether it was for Speedchannel from an F1 fan or BTN, it was genius then but it’s a whole new situation now. Now you can get it through many packages and it is more standard in packages. A small percentage of revenue is from subscriptions, presumably Fox is getting the rest of the revenue from commercials / ads. You are right about the TV sets but it doesn’t matter if Oregons viewers are in Oregon or California. And you are right those other teams are a joke if we don’t take Washington and Oregon.
Pick any article about this latest round of expansion and it discusses the “LA market”. What do you think this means exactly? The LA area won’t suddenly be really into watching college football. It means that the TV companies can now charge more in that market.
similarly, why do you think Stanford is worth more to the BT than Oregon? It’s not a brand issue; it’s due to the population difference between SF and Oregon.
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Good!
Now we just need to convince you that 24 teams is suboptimal. In fact, any number of teams that doesn’t grow the pie is suboptimal.
The only other consideration is will the LA schools feel like they’re on an island. Oregon/UW/Stanford could make them feel more at home. The BT will need to decide if less money for everybody (by adding those schools) is worth it for long term stability.
I use the term market literally in responding to some people here who compare this to 10 years ago when subscriptions were forced to people ina geographical area by the cable channels. The articles you reference are referring to USC and UCLA fans in the LA region which there are a lot, but are somewhat exclusive of them. For example if we didn’t have Rutgers no one would be saying we should add them now because of the NY market as there just isn’t a lot of Rutgers fans in NY who will turn on the game. Same with DePaul in Chicago.
what also is something to consider is will someday you can subscribe to BTN exclusively instead of part of a package the way the nfl does it with the nfl package? This will further dilute the regional viewers.
i also think you have me confused with someone else on your second point. No way would I have suggested we take Stanford over oregon
I am not worried as much about 5-10 million plus or minus from the next moves. I am looking at being the ones shaping the collegiate landscape instead of just reacting to the changes as we have been. Going to 20 with a strong west coast presence definitely makes the BT the dominant ocnference, and in the drivers seat going forward in shaping how collegiate athletics evolves. Or we can take the easy way, max out the money and live in the world the SEC designs for us. This is a watershed moment, Oregon and Washington are there for the taking, no they don't grow the pie, but they grow the brand and provide stability for the LA schools to make this work long term. 20 to me seems very reasonable and easily attainable right now, and this chance may never happen again, seize the day, or stand aside for those who will.
The Big Question is whether the B10 is thinking of doing two divisions, three divisions or no divisions when it comes to football.
Are all the schools on board with a 24 team national conference and three divisions? Or are USC/UCLA signing up for a 16 team conference?
Say the Big Ten rips the band aid off and adds 8 more.
Stanford/Cal
Oregon/Washington
Boston College/UVA/Duke/UNC
Big 12 then becomes a mega conference picking up the some of the ACC and rest of the Pac 12. Miami, FSU, Clemson go to the SEC.
Are all the schools on board with a 24 team national conference and three divisions? Or are USC/UCLA signing up for a 16 team conference?
Say the Big Ten rips the band aid off and adds 8 more.
Stanford/Cal
Oregon/Washington
Boston College/UVA/Duke/UNC
Big 12 then becomes a mega conference picking up the some of the ACC and rest of the Pac 12. Miami, FSU, Clemson go to the SEC.
In this case there would be a steep drop off from big ten to big 12. Wouldn’t call it a mega conference.
