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HoosierfanJM

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They very well could be a sleeper.

Garcia lit Purdue up last year. He and Battle alone should probably have them up higher in list. Not knowing about his situation I always wondered why UNC took off after he left the team.

I'd be worried about a D2 transfer starting though. My thiught would be most B1G level forwards would lead D2 in rebounding if they went that route.
And four new starters from other programs and from different levels is a problem.

Coordinating offense schemes at the P5 level is no joke - it's hard enough with top 100 recruits and P5 transfers, never mind with D2 transfers and low ranked freshmen. Willis and Stephens jacking up threes last year was an easy out -- that won't be an option this season.
 
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I think Minnesota could get out of last place.

Battle is very good. Garcia is good. Thompson showed some potential last year. Cooper is an excellent addition, though his numbers will drop with the step up in competition.

Ben Johnson seems to be a good game coach and motivator.
Depth is horrendous. That sg ranked in the 200's better not be starting as a freshman.

Maybe six or seven conference wins?
Carrington won MN Mr. Basketball over Tre Holloman who is a top 100 ranked player. He's much better than his ranking. Also led his aau team in scoring over two other guys ranked in the top 150. (Prince Aligbe & Demarion Watson)
 

HoosierfanJM

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Carrington won MN Mr. Basketball over Tre Holloman who is a top 100 ranked player. He's much better than his ranking. Also led his aau team in scoring over two other guys ranked in the top 150. (Prince Aligbe & Demarion Watson)
Holloman is the number 74 player nationally, and is expected to be a benchwarmer at Michigan State his freshman year. That's how it works at upper level teams. Ben Johnson needs to get to that level to be better than lower third of the B1G.

Since we're on the Purdue board, I'll give you the Purdue analogy -- Furst and Kaufman were both top 100 recruits, and Furst was Indiana Mr. Basketball. Neither was ready for 20+ effective minutes as a freshman, yet both will likely round into excellent B1G players.

I'm not saying that a really good high school player ranked in the 200's cannot turn into a very good P5 player--it happens all the time. I am saying that expecting that player to be a net positive as a freshman in the B1G is truly a long shot.
 
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Statey

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An entering 5-star who is not a serious draft candidate after 3 years in a program absent injury should be considered a bit of a disappointment these days. I am confident that if asked off the record, TJD would admit to expecting to having been a serious draft candidate by now. Absent the reported NIL figure, he would likely be packing bags and looking for European flights.
Not sure that's entirely fair. I think there are usually around 25-30 5* players each year. Look at the composite rankings of 2019 (TJD's class). Summary of top 30:

Top 10: 9 are in the NBA; 1 is playing in Italy
11-20: 4 still in college; 4 in NBA; 2 in the G league
21-30: 5 still in college (incl. TJD @ #30); 4 in NBA; 1 staying in '22 draft (Wendell Moore)

So if you exclude TJD from the 21-30 group, 4 made it the league, 4 are playing in college this coming year, and 1 is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder in mock drafts. So half the guys in 21-30 group and another 40% of the guys in 11-20? That's a pretty chunk out of 20 players to be disappointments for not having made the NBA yet. No idea how typical the 2019 class is, but just looked at it because it was his class.
 
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arcb102000

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Not sure that's entirely fair. I think there are usually around 25-30 5* players each year. Look at the composite rankings of 2019 (TJD's class). Summary of top 30:

Top 10: 9 are in the NBA; 1 is playing in Italy
11-20: 4 still in college; 4 in NBA; 2 in the G league
21-30: 5 still in college (incl. TJD @ #30); 4 in NBA; 1 staying in '22 draft (Wendell Moore)

So if you exclude TJD from the 21-30 group, 4 made it the league, 4 are playing in college this coming year, and 1 is a late 1st / early 2nd rounder in mock drafts. So half the guys in 21-30 group and another 40% of the guys in 11-20? That's a pretty chunk out of 20 players to be disappointments for not having made the NBA yet. No idea how typical the 2019 class is, but just looked at it because it was his class.
I think that in order to view things properly, one should consider the distribution of the 5-stars. If 9 are in the NBA and 1 in Italy, then of the NBAers, how many did one year in college, how many two? etc.

From my perspective, TJD has not developed as was hoped. He gets his lay-ups but does not really shoot well otherwise. He went 0 for 3 last season from beyond the arc. He gets lots of points at the foul line, but doesn't really drive as he is not a slasher. His height and speed will not allow the points that he gets in college to be gotten in the NBA, hence his return to IU. He is not a great defender, so what makes him NBA attractive? Unless his 4th year is very different from the first 3, it is unlikely that he is drafted imo.
 

HoosierfanJM

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I think that in order to view things properly, one should consider the distribution of the 5-stars. If 9 are in the NBA and 1 in Italy, then of the NBAers, how many did one year in college, how many two? etc.

From my perspective, TJD has not developed as was hoped. He gets his lay-ups but does not really shoot well otherwise. He went 0 for 3 last season from beyond the arc. He gets lots of points at the foul line, but doesn't really drive as he is not a slasher. His height and speed will not allow the points that he gets in college to be gotten in the NBA, hence his return to IU. He is not a great defender, so what makes him NBA attractive? Unless his 4th year is very different from the first 3, it is unlikely that he is drafted imo.
Maybe you're arguing a different point. If you are stating that TJD hasn't become a hot NBA prospect I completely agree.

But as a college player TJD is a fantastic defender. He had the best defensive rating on the best defensive team in the B1G last year, and averaged 2.3 blocks per game. He's also a heck of a good slasher with the ball in his hands, and a really good screener. No jump shot whatsoever is a fatal flaw for an NBA 6'9" player, but 18.3/8.1/2.3 blocks and more assists than turnovers as a college big is pretty outstanding.

For instance, Kofi was an awesome college player and averaged two more points and rebounds than TJD, but also had less than half as many blocks and had double turnovers to assists. Trevion Williams was a damn fine college player, but averaged 1/3 fewer points, one less rebound, a similar a/to ratio, and had 75% fewer blocks. The primary difference is that (I think) Williams can shoot the ball from outside well enough to get into the second round, and TJD can make a lot of NIL $$ by coming back to IU. Williams wouldn't have made much NIL at Purdue.
 

Statey

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I think that in order to view things properly, one should consider the distribution of the 5-stars. If 9 are in the NBA and 1 in Italy, then of the NBAers, how many did one year in college, how many two? etc.

From my perspective, TJD has not developed as was hoped. He gets his lay-ups but does not really shoot well otherwise. He went 0 for 3 last season from beyond the arc. He gets lots of points at the foul line, but doesn't really drive as he is not a slasher. His height and speed will not allow the points that he gets in college to be gotten in the NBA, hence his return to IU. He is not a great defender, so what makes him NBA attractive? Unless his 4th year is very different from the first 3, it is unlikely that he is drafted imo.
I don't disagree with anything you said, and like you, I don't really think he's anything more than G league or international material. I was responding to your comment that seemed to be that if you're a 5* and not making NBA money by year 3 out of high school, you've failed to meet expectations. My point was just that the numbers - in this class at least - don't necessarily seem to support that thinking, particularly after you get outside the top 10 picks who are the clear cream of the crop. Set aside the 10 top for a minute. If you are 1 of the next 20 among your peers and the other 19 achieved, that 1 miss could be construed as an outlier and thus a failure. If you're part of a group of 10 out of 20 peers that didn't achieve a goal, that doesn't seem like an outlier to me. But again, I haven't looked at any other year besides the 2019 HS class.

Also worth mentioning in this example, we're assuming - and probably generously - that TJD is an equal to all those players above him in those 11-29 slots. Thinking about your distribution comment, it would probably also make sense to somehow adjust for "tiering" in some way to acknowledge that the higher ranked players are better than lower ranked players, generally speaking, and therefore a guy ranked 30 not making the NBA is a lesser disappointment than a guy ranked 15 not making it. But I don't have the time - or the brains - to be able to figure out how to do such a thing. Heck it's probably on the internet somewhere already!
 
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arcb102000

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When you compare TJD and Kofi. it is apples and oranges. As far as points go, Illinois had guards who were good shooters. Hence, while Kofi scored slightly more points per game, Illinois outscored IU by an even larger margin. As for Williams and scoring, he scored 1/3 fewer points in 40% less minutes. That means on a points/minute basis, he outscored TJD.

As for rebounds, Williams was superior (adjusted for time played) as was Kofi, who played less minutes/game than TJD - by about 8%. Regarding defense, I have not seen blocks on the man that he was guarding vs blocks on drivers. As I recall, it was more of the latter. At the next level, that matters as he would not be playing the same position as at IU on defense.

As for his slashing ability, he got a lot of points by isolation and then driving. That does not translate to the pros either given his speed and size.

As I initially wrote and to which your post seems to agree, absent NIL he is not at IU and packing for Europe. Given what was expected when he signed by IU fans and (I believe) his family, the present is not what was expected.
 
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HoosierfanJM

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When you compare TJD and Kofi. it is apples and oranges. As far as points go, Illinois had guards who were good shooters. Hence, while Kofi scored slightly more points per game, Illinois outscored IU by an even larger margin. As for Williams and scoring, he scored 1/3 fewer points in 40% less minutes. That means on a points/minute basis, he outscored TJD.

As for rebounds, Williams was superior (adjusted for time played) as was Kofi, who played less minutes/game than TJD - by about 8%. Regarding defense, I have not seen blocks on the man that he was guarding vs blocks on drivers. As I recall, it was more of the latter. At the next level, that matters as he would not be playing the same position as at IU on defense.

As for his slashing ability, he got a lot of points by isolation and then driving. That does not translate to the pros either given his speed and size.

As I initially wrote and to which your post seems to agree, absent NIL he is not at IU and packing for Europe. Given what was expected when he signed by IU fans and (I believe) his family, the present is not what was expected.
Agree with all of this re his NBA potential!
 

mathboy

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Maybe you're arguing a different point. If you are stating that TJD hasn't become a hot NBA prospect I completely agree.

But as a college player TJD is a fantastic defender. He had the best defensive rating on the best defensive team in the B1G last year, and averaged 2.3 blocks per game. He's also a heck of a good slasher with the ball in his hands, and a really good screener. No jump shot whatsoever is a fatal flaw for an NBA 6'9" player, but 18.3/8.1/2.3 blocks and more assists than turnovers as a college big is pretty outstanding.

For instance, Kofi was an awesome college player and averaged two more points and rebounds than TJD, but also had less than half as many blocks and had double turnovers to assists. Trevion Williams was a damn fine college player, but averaged 1/3 fewer points, one less rebound, a similar a/to ratio, and had 75% fewer blocks. The primary difference is that (I think) Williams can shoot the ball from outside well enough to get into the second round, and TJD can make a lot of NIL $$ by coming back to IU. Williams wouldn't have made much NIL at Purdue.
On target about TJD from what I’ve seen. There is no doubt that he is a good-to-great college player, and I think his defense is fine. We Purdue fans have watched him play against some of the best centers in the BIG and arguably some of the best in college basketball. Tough to look good defensively when going against Edey or Williams who are both offensive terrors.

His lack of a outside shot is not a big deal for college ball. Let’s not confuse that game with the NBA. His outside shooting looks all the worse because most of his IU teammates couldn’t shoot either. My concern about TJD is his motor. If he gets frustrated in the first half, he may lose his aggressiveness altogether. Im hoping some maturity will overcome that tendency this year. I have a feeling Woodson will be quite blunt about that issue.

:cool:
 
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They very well could be a sleeper.

Garcia lit Purdue up last year. He and Battle alone should probably have them up higher in list. Not knowing about his situation I always wondered why UNC took off after he left the team.

I'd be worried about a D2 transfer starting though. My thiught would be most B1G level forwards would lead D2 in rebounding if they went that route.
Usually, the question for players going from D2 to D1 is are they athletic enough to to compete at a higher level. Fox definitely has high major athleticism, that is not a question. We aren't going to need 15ppg from him. We just need him to play good defense and rebound and he will help out alot in that regard. We were a terrible rebounding team last year.

 
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Roeder

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Usually, the question for players going from D2 to D1 is are they athletic enough to to compete at a higher level. Fox definitely has high major athleticism, that is not a question. We aren't going to need 15ppg from him. We just need him to play good defense and rebound and he will help out alot in that regard. We were a terrible rebounding team last year.

The highlights remind me of Jacob Lawson. He had great athleticism and most Purdue fans were excited, but once he got here we realized why there were only dunks in his highlights as all other aspects of his game were a liability at the high major level. We'll see how his game translates for Minny this year.
 

HoosierfanJM

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Usually, the question for players going from D2 to D1 is are they athletic enough to to compete at a higher level. Fox definitely has high major athleticism, that is not a question. We aren't going to need 15ppg from him. We just need him to play good defense and rebound and he will help out alot in that regard. We were a terrible rebounding team last year.


The guy needs less caffeine.

I think he just picked up his third foul in the first half, for every game he’s going to play.
 

combes

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Skyy is not a 5* and with that kind of injury I wouldn’t expect him to come in ready. That’s really a big piece and ask for him.
He was a 5 star until his injury. He is looking good in workouts. Jayden Epps is a bucket. He and Clark will split the point. Ty Rodgers just started for the USU U-18 gold medal team. Sencere Harris is the best athlete of the four.

C. Hawkins, Dainja
F. Mayer, Goode
G. Shannon, Rodgers
G. Melendez, Harris
G. Clark, Epps

Long, skilled and very athletic. The coaches are talking up Dainja as the center. If that happens, the lineup shifts. May take some time to gel, but Melendez is a great talent and Hawkins played well down the stretch. Goode is a shooter. Add in the number 8 recruiting class and the number 2 transfer class, and this is hopefully a reload.
 

boilerball2021

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He was a 5 star until his injury. He is looking good in workouts. Jayden Epps is a bucket. He and Clark will split the point. Ty Rodgers just started for the USU U-18 gold medal team. Sencere Harris is the best athlete of the four.

C. Hawkins, Dainja
F. Mayer, Goode
G. Shannon, Rodgers
G. Melendez, Harris
G. Clark, Epps

Long, skilled and very athletic. The coaches are talking up Dainja as the center. If that happens, the lineup shifts. May take some time to gel, but Melendez is a great talent and Hawkins played well down the stretch. Goode is a shooter. Add in the number 8 recruiting class and the number 2 transfer class, and this is hopefully a reload.
Sounds like Illinois is guaranteed a Big Ten title and a Final 4. Congrats!
 

13thman

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I think that in order to view things properly, one should consider the distribution of the 5-stars. If 9 are in the NBA and 1 in Italy, then of the NBAers, how many did one year in college, how many two? etc.

From my perspective, TJD has not developed as was hoped. He gets his lay-ups but does not really shoot well otherwise. He went 0 for 3 last season from beyond the arc. He gets lots of points at the foul line, but doesn't really drive as he is not a slasher. His height and speed will not allow the points that he gets in college to be gotten in the NBA, hence his return to IU. He is not a great defender, so what makes him NBA attractive? Unless his 4th year is very different from the first 3, it is unlikely that he is drafted imo.
Being great in college doesn't always correlate to a productive NBA career.
Rick Mount? Nope
Steve Alford? Nope
Carsen Edwards? Nope
Damon Bailey? Nope
Caleb Swanigan? Nope
Jay Edwards? Nope
And that's just guys from IU and Purdue. The basketball world is filled with these examples. I choose to enjoy their accomplishments in college and not hold their lack of NBA success against them. It's a different game. Hell, there are long time NBA veterans that many never paid attention to in college.
 
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HoosierfanJM

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He was a 5 star until his injury. He is looking good in workouts. Jayden Epps is a bucket. He and Clark will split the point. Ty Rodgers just started for the USU U-18 gold medal team. Sencere Harris is the best athlete of the four.

C. Hawkins, Dainja
F. Mayer, Goode
G. Shannon, Rodgers
G. Melendez, Harris
G. Clark, Epps

Long, skilled and very athletic. The coaches are talking up Dainja as the center. If that happens, the lineup shifts. May take some time to gel, but Melendez is a great talent and Hawkins played well down the stretch. Goode is a shooter. Add in the number 8 recruiting class and the number 2 transfer class, and this is hopefully a reload.

Well hell, I didn’t know that “Jayden Epps is a bucket!” Lol. He’s the #68 ranked freshman. Ever think maybe “Jayden Epps is a turnover?”

Clark may be “looking good in workouts,” but he’s still held out of any live contact. So you’re basically saying he’s looking good on a Peloton machine.

And the thought of Hawkins guarding Edey, or for that matter any big with low post ability is just silly. Mayer too. Mayer had four years at Baylor and averaged 15 minutes per game. He’s way more famous than good. Them two are marshmallow, cotton ball, puppy fuzz, pillowy soft.
 
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Wolegib

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Many people say I ignore the facts! Rather, I ignore personal stats and look at trends and results! Historically, OSU and Illinois put up some tremendous stats and their players are usually highly ranked and they get drafted in the NBA. But historically their teams always seem to underachieve and their actual win total and team accomplishments never seem to match the sum of their parts.

on the other hand Purdue’s team performance always seems to exceed their talent level. Cline and Sasha and it and his brother were all loved by Purdue fans. But when compared to the players at OSU and Illinois their talent level wasn’t close. We talk about Purdue being the home of the big man, but it’s other team’s big men that get all the hype! Look at Dickinson, Kent benson, Frank the tank and tractor Traylor! And that guy at IU. Our big men dominated them. Didn’t our brad Miller go totally undrafted? Was Haas drafted? Wasn’t Johnson a second round pick? Swanigan was a low first round pick and Portland had already drafted another big man before him. As I look at Purdue’s talent, there have always been other teams with more talent. And players with a lot better stats, but Purdue as a team gets much better results. Many people do all these analytical studies, but there is only one stat that counts - the W! All the other stats are for fantasy geeks and fans of second place teams looking for something to brag about!

looking at player hype, Michigan should have gone undefeated last year! That’s why we play the games!
 
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Many people say I ignore the facts! Rather, I ignore personal stats and look at trends and results! Historically, OSU and Illinois put up some tremendous stats and their players are usually highly ranked and they get drafted in the NBA. But historically their teams always seem to underachieve and their actual win total and team accomplishments never seem to match the sum of their parts.

on the other hand Purdue’s team performance always seems to exceed their talent level.
Uh…. Not last year lol. Preseason conference favorite and national darling… until tbey underachieved the second half of the season
 

Wolegib

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I never understood the blocking mentality. It basically says you are in your own little world and are not open to reading viewpoints that may differ than yours. How do you learn anything if you do not allow yourself to view all facts and opinions?
 

mathboy

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Blocked and reported.
You idiot. You misunderstood, or misread what I posted. I am a boilermaker through and through. I am from the state of Indiana and I am a fan of most Indiana schools. Butler, Indiana, Ball State, etc. I am almost a fan of Noter Dame. :cool:

I started this thread to talk basketball, which it has done pretty well. I post on both boards, and enjoy the civility of most posters.
 

Wolegib

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You idiot. You misunderstood, or misread what I posted. I am a boilermaker through and through. I am from the state of Indiana and I am a fan of most Indiana schools. Butler, Indiana, Ball State, etc. I am almost a fan of Noter Dame. :cool:

I started this thread to talk basketball, which it has done pretty well. I post on both boards, and enjoy the civility of most posters.
There are many idiots on this board with very low reading comprehension skills! I thought you realized it by now!
 
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Agreed about Michigan and agree - the 'love' for Illinois is because of your transfer class, but that's where I think there's a mis-rating.

Last year, Mayer in his first year of extended minutes and first year as a starter at Baylor was a 32% three point shooter, and took almost half of his shots from three. Not much of a rebounder for a big, not much of a defender. My opinion maybe, but I think it may be the mullet and Baylor's national attention that turned Mayer into a big time 'get'. Dainja was the 91st ranked recruit nationally and has not played college ball yet due to injuries. Shannon is an excellent defender and a winning player. Add them to three role players from last year's Illini team.

What am I missing?
Mayer's DR% his last 2 seasons at Baylor was a little over 20 which is pretty solid. And his Block% last year was 3.9. He's a pretty good defender, you're not going to play on a team like Baylor (or Illinois) if you don't defend.
And the thought of Hawkins guarding Edey, or for that matter any big with low post ability is just silly. Mayer too. Mayer had four years at Baylor and averaged 15 minutes per game. He’s way more famous than good. Them two are marshmallow, cotton ball, puppy fuzz, pillowy soft.
Yeah, and Edey will have to defend on the other end, too. Good luck to him there.
 

boilerball2021

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Mayer's DR% his last 2 seasons at Baylor was a little over 20 which is pretty solid. And his Block% last year was 3.9. He's a pretty good defender, you're not going to play on a team like Baylor (or Illinois) if you don't defend.

Yeah, and Edey will have to defend on the other end, too. Good luck to him there.
Hawkins was terrible from 3 last year. Edey dominated Kofi. He would send Hawkins home crying.

Illinois is a team I expect Edey to average 20+ against given how small their frontline is.
 

TX4GB

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A couple foreign players heading to the B1G. They committed recently:
 
May 29, 2001
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Hawkins was terrible from 3 last year. Edey dominated Kofi. He would send Hawkins home crying.

Illinois is a team I expect Edey to average 20+ against given how small their frontline is.

It's not about his man shooting 3s, having Edey out there means you are very limited in how you defend ball screens. Pretty much forced to use drop coverage because he's too big and slow for anything else. Illinois had the same issue with Kofi and he's much more agile than Edey.

He'll put up big numbers for sure but how much of that will be given back on the other end. Just like last year, the Purdue defense is going to struggle.
 

mathboy

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With Kaufman and Furst playing along the front line, probably rotating with Mason Gillis, I think we will have sufficient size and agility to guard the front line against anybody. Edey is not as slow and lumbering as some might portray. My concern from a defense perspective is the guard positions. You can guard drivers by backing off them. You guard shooters by staying in their face. The toughest guy to guard is someone like Ivey or Edwards who can do both.

As for the recent Illinois commits, I know nothing about them expect they are from out of the country. Often out-of-country recruits are an indication that the coach is not getting in-country recruits and has to reach further. I’m not knowledgeable about what UI has drug in to make that judgement, but two OOC recruits suggests desperation.
 
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boilerball2021

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It's not about his man shooting 3s, having Edey out there means you are very limited in how you defend ball screens. Pretty much forced to use drop coverage because he's too big and slow for anything else. Illinois had the same issue with Kofi and he's much more agile than Edey.

He'll put up big numbers for sure but how much of that will be given back on the other end. Just like last year, the Purdue defense is going to struggle.
We will be better than you.
 
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With Kaufman and Furst playing along the front line, probably rotating with Mason Gillis, I think we will have sufficient size and agility to guard the front line against anybody. Edey is not as slow and lumbering as some might portray. My concern from a defense perspective is the guard positions. You can guard drivers by backing off them. You guard shooters by staying in their face. The toughest guy to guard is someone like Ivey or Edwards who can do both.

As for the recent Illinois commits, I know nothing about them expect they are from out of the country. Often out-of-country recruits are an indication that the coach is not getting in-country recruits and has to reach further. I’m not knowledgeable about what UI has drug in to make that judgement, but two OOC recruits suggests desperation.
I disagree to a point on ooc players. There are some very skilled bigs that come from Europe and the game is changing to guys like that. I think the thing to watch with Edey is going to be stamina.(not wether he can guard)He’s going to play more minutes plus can Kauffman guard a 3? The B1G is a big unknown this year. Going to be an interesting year.
 
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With Kaufman and Furst playing along the front line, probably rotating with Mason Gillis, I think we will have sufficient size and agility to guard the front line against anybody. Edey is not as slow and lumbering as some might portray. My concern from a defense perspective is the guard positions. You can guard drivers by backing off them. You guard shooters by staying in their face. The toughest guy to guard is someone like Ivey or Edwards who can do both.

As for the recent Illinois commits, I know nothing about them expect they are from out of the country. Often out-of-country recruits are an indication that the coach is not getting in-country recruits and has to reach further. I’m not knowledgeable about what UI has drug in to make that judgement, but two OOC recruits suggests desperation.
lol it definitely doesn't suggest desperation when Illinois already has a top 10 recruiting class in place.

No harm in trying to reload with even more talent and depth.


Perrin chose Illinois over UCLA, Texas and Florida and really raved about Coach Underwood
 
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mathboy

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lol it definitely doesn't suggest desperation when Illinois already has a top 10 recruiting class in place.

No harm in trying to reload with even more talent and depth.



Perrin chose Illinois over UCLA, Texas and Florida and really raved about Coach Underwood
No intent to insult. Thanks for the update on the class. If Underwood already has a top 10 class, then filling in with foreign players is no big deal. I just was influenced by two of them committing at the same time.

Given that if these kids play well together, Illinios should be considered a top-of-the-BIG team. Nothing new there.

:cool: