Breaking down the bubble teams ...
- Thread starter KODK
- Start date
Have to win out season and take at least one in BTT and if lose the second not get blown out I think.
I don't think what we do in a potential 2nd BTT game will matter so long as we win our final two home games and our first BTT game. Our 2nd game in the BTT will likely be against a very good team since we're locked into a 5-8 seed I think if we win our last 2.
Maryland, OSU, and Michigan State already have 11+ wins so we can't match them for conference record.
IU has 10 with games at Nebraska and vs Penn State left. Assuming they win one of those then we can't catch them so a top 4 seed (double bye) is very unlikely.
Minnesota has 10 wins but their last two games are with Maryland and Ohio State so if we win out we should catch them and we have a head-to-head tiebreaker with them.
Nebraska has 8 wins with home games against IU and Northwestern left so they can also get to 10 wins and we split with them so I'm not sure how that tiebreaker would play out.
Michigan is sitting at 8 wins with road games at Northwestern and Rutgers left. We also split with them.
Iowa has 7 wins with games at Penn State and home vs Illinois.
Rutgers has 7 wins and can't catch us if we beat them. Their last game is against Michigan.
Here's what we need to cheer for to get the best seed possible:
Purdue to beat Rutgers Thursday.
Minnesota to lose to both OSU and Maryland.
IU to beat Nebraska Wednesday. (This assumes IU and Nebraska are both going to win their final home games against Penn State and Northwestern respectively)
Michigan to lose at Rutgers Sunday. (assuming they win at Northwestern tonight)
Purdue to beat Wisconsin Sunday.
I think this would guarantee us the #5 seed as we would be the only team tied with Minnesota at 10-8 and we would have that tiebreaker. A multi-team tiebreaker with Nebraska and/or Michigan involved (in addition to Minnesota) would get much more complicated and I'm not sure how those would play out.
We need to win our last two home games for any of that to matter though and if we've proven anything over the last month is that we can't take any game for granted.
Michigan beat Northwestern as expected last night so even if we win out they could still tie us with 10 wins if they win their last game at Rutgers.
Tonight the IU/Nebraska game is the big one for us I think. I think it's best for us if IU were to win to take Nebraska out of the 10-win equation. If Nebraska wins I may have to start looking at multi-team tiebreak situations. Purdue has to take care of business to make any of this relevant though.
Tonight the IU/Nebraska game is the big one for us I think. I think it's best for us if IU were to win to take Nebraska out of the 10-win equation. If Nebraska wins I may have to start looking at multi-team tiebreak situations. Purdue has to take care of business to make any of this relevant though.
That Minnesota win is interesting because it gives the Gophers a marquee win and bumps up their RPI, which was down in the 80s, I think. Puts them in a good spot for Selection Monday, perhaps competing with Purdue for a spot.
We have to win our next two and at least one in BTT and not get blown out if we lose second, but, even so, looks like an 8-9 seed which would not be good. But never know. Sure did not expect to see Minny beat OSU even tho Banham is one of the best ever.
I don't think it matters what we do in our 2nd BTT if we win the next 3 games. If we get blown out by OSU or Maryland I don't think it matters any more than if we lose a close one to MSU. Frankly, it is going to be tough to win our next three. Rutgers isn't a gimme and Wisconsin already beat us once. Then our first BTT game will likely be against a team like Penn State or Iowa. All 3 are games we're capable of winning but we're capable of losing any as well. Hope the team is just focused on Rutgers tonight. Win tonight and the rest all of a sudden looks doable.
agree hard to know which team will show up. Wilson's energy vs. Nebraska was a noticeable return to the form she had earlier when we were winning. We are at home these two games which you think would inspire her. We need her to play big time and for Keys to continue her rampage.
Losing the first BTT would put Purdue in a bad spot, IMO. Purdue can't afford to take another loss let alone another bad loss. Losing to Penn State (likely opponent) in that first game would be another bad loss. PSU has an RPI around 125.
Wisconsin is not a good team and was far and away our worse loss of the year as we played awful. But today the Purdue team that started the BT is back and played well in routing the Badgers. I do think we have to win the first BTT game to go to the NCAA, but if we do, I think we might be able to win another too. We are playing well again and the D has been good. McBryde and Morisette have really stepped up, the latter big time, playing at an all-conference level over the last 6 games. She's what we need, a shooter.
Purdue women's basketball team on the bubble. Who would have imagined it? Just hope the new AD can restore this program to its rightful place.
Looks like PSU on Thursday unless hapless Illinois upsets them. Then MSU, OSU, probably no reason to go that far. We will be the favorite in the Thursday nite game and I expect us to win it because we have been playing well. MSU is an up and down team but we will not be the favorites. I do not think we have the firepower to beat OSU. So guessing 20-10 and hopefully better than an 8/9 Dance seed tho, with that record, it may be very likely. Just a hunch, this team might surprise if they shoot decently.
Oh Puleeze. What is "our rightful place"? Would that be like multiple-time champion PSU's "rightful place"? We had some lean years due to multiple factors and are on our way back. But heaven forbid that you would be HAPPY about that!
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