9 man rotation prediction with minutes

[BoilerDaddy]

Take it with a grain of salt, but here’s my current guess regarding the rotation and minutes distribution:

Starters:
Smith (38)
Cox (19)
Loyer (26)
TKR (31)
Cluff (21)

Rotation players:
Mayer (24)
Jacobsen (19)
Harris (10)
Murphy (7)

Others:
Benter (2)
Burgess (2)
West (1)

I emphasize guess as I may be way off.

Edit: The above assumes no redshirts. I actually think that a West redshirt is likely and a Burgess redshirt is possible.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Take it with a grain of salt, but here’s my current guess regarding the rotation and minutes distribution:

Starters:
Smith (38)
Cox (19)
Loyer (26)
TKR (31)
Cluff (21)

Rotation players:
Mayer (24)
Jacobsen (19)
Harris (10)
Murphy (7)

Others:
Benter (2)
Burgess (2)
West (1)

I emphasize guess as I may be way off.

Edit: The above assumes no redshirts. I actually think that a West redshirt is likely and a Burgess redshirt is possible.

My guess is Benter (and maybe West too) see way more minutes.

Having new options of Mayer, Benter and West might lower Loyer's minutes even more than you already did. Guy HAD to play alot last year. Might not be the case next year.

Hoping Mayer can help Smith so he doesn't have so much on his shoulders. Smith @ 30??? That means Mayer is REAL good!!

 

[Gman544]

West and Benter have to be substantially better than Loyer on Defense to take his minutes. I have no idea if that is something they are known for.

 

[msfboiler3]

Take it with a grain of salt, but here’s my current guess regarding the rotation and minutes distribution:

Starters:
Smith (38)
Cox (19)
Loyer (26)
TKR (31)
Cluff (21)

Rotation players:
Mayer (24)
Jacobsen (19)
Harris (10)
Murphy (7)

Others:
Benter (2)
Burgess (2)
West (1)

I emphasize guess as I may be way off.

Edit: The above assumes no redshirts. I actually think that a West redshirt is likely and a Burgess redshirt is possible.

Looks good to me. I posted below but i think cluff plays most of the 9 minutes that renn isnt in with murphy. I can see cluff starting and going to the bench early then subbing in when renn gets a blow. Mayer looks damn good to me too. 24 minutes sound right and i can see him being in at the end of games. Very confident, strong, and good ball handler to pair with smith to put the game away. Weve had too many helter skelter finishes of games. Mayer will be that second guy we need to ice it.

 

[proudopete]

Harris sees more than 10 minutes.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Hopefully we don't need Braden to average 38.

 

[Schmedly_Whiplash]

1 or more of those will show up much improved and carve out more minutes than anyone expects right now.
Our last group of 2nd year guys didn't take that big step.
We are due.

 

[Quix0te]

Take it with a grain of salt, but here’s my current guess regarding the rotation and minutes distribution:

Starters:
Smith (38)
Cox (19)
Loyer (26)
TKR (31)
Cluff (21)

Rotation players:
Jacobsen (19)

Didn't Jacobson start last year before breaking his leg? Hard to imagine we'll have 7'4" on the bench while starting three guards.

 

[Heads up BOILER]

West and Benter have to be substantially better than Loyer on Defense to take his minutes. I have no idea if that is something they are known for.

There’s a lot of talent to possibly reduce Fletches PT. I think Benter, Harris, and possibly Mayer and West who could challenge for playing time. Fletch will start but i believe gives up minutes to others unless he’s on fire in a game. You likely aren’t off by much though and i think it will all depend on in game performance specific for PT among the 2/3 position… might even see Murphy tried at the 3 spot if his 3 point shooting stays above 40%.
I’d like to see Mayer and/or Cox or Harris spell Smith to get his avg to around 35. If Mayer turns out to absolutely earn time making it difficult to not give him more time and his PG skills are as advertised he might see more time at the point than we expect.
I also hope DJ comes out fit, heavier and hungry and pulls an Edey in that Paint feels he’s got to be the starter between he and Cluff. That’d be a great situation for the team having two starters to rotate. I hope Paint finds his life extremely difficult going into the season and all the returning players make a jump and the new guys are great fits and bring more to the team than expected. I for some reason have a feeling that we’re all gonna be pleasantly surprised by Benter, we’ll see. BTFU!!!

 

[proudopete]

There’s a lot of talent to possibly reduce Fletches PT. I think Benter, Harris, and possibly Mayer and West who could challenge for playing time. Fletch will start but i believe gives up minutes to others unless he’s on fire in a game. You likely aren’t off by much though and i think it will all depend on in game performance specific for PT among the 2/3 position… might even see Murphy tried at the 3 spot if his 3 point shooting stays above 40%.
I’d like to see Mayer and/or Cox or Harris spell Smith to get his avg to around 35. If Mayer turns out to absolutely earn time making it difficult to not give him more time and his PG skills are as advertised he might see more time at the point than we expect.
I also hope DJ comes out fit, heavier and hungry and pulls an Edey in that Paint feels he’s got to be the starter between he and Cluff. That’d be a great situation for the team having two starters to rotate. I hope Paint finds his life extremely difficult going into the season and all the returning players make a jump and the new guys are great fits and bring more to the team than expected. I for some reason have a feeling that we’re all gonna be pleasantly surprised by Benter, we’ll see. BTFU!!!

DJ is up to 250lbs.

 

[Bank Shot Podcast]

Smith- 34
Cox- 24
Loyer- 30
TKR- 34
Cluff- 25

Jacobsen- 15
Mayer- 14
Harris- 16
Murphy- 8

I think it'll be close to that. Painters biggest question will be who plays the 4(in this minutes scenario I gave Murphy all 6 left and 2 at the 3). Burgess will probably grab a few minutes. He may take all 6 left. No clue. But just going with 9 guys, I think this could be how it shakes out.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Harris sees more than 10 minutes.

Agreed.

Harris at least 20.

Mayer around 14-15.

Loyer in range of 23ish.

Cluff 20-25 and DJ at 15-20 (depending on need).

Cox at 20.

TKR at 30.

Murphy 6-8.

Smith…prob 40 if he had a say but I bet around 35.

 

[BoilerGrad92]

I love TKR but if he continues with silly early fouls next year, there will be more minutes available at the four.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

I love TKR but if he continues with silly early fouls next year, there will be more minutes available at the four.

He’s playing 30+ mins don’t you worry

 

[qazplm]

My guess is Benter (and maybe West too) see way more minutes.

Having new options of Mayer, Benter and West might lower Loyer's minutes even more than you already did. Guy HAD to play alot last year. Might not be the case next year.

Hoping Mayer can help Smith so he doesn't have so much on his shoulders. Smith @ 30??? That means Mayer is REAL good!!

Painter loves Loyer too much to ever drop him below 30 a game or very high 20s

 

[EdBoiler]

Mayer will be our 3rd best player and his minutes will reflect that.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Painter loves Loyer too much to ever drop him below 30 a game or very high 20s

Once he stops doing the things painter wants his players doing, his mins will drop…so yeah prob won’t drop rest of his career 😂

 

[qazplm]

Once he stops doing the things painter wants his players doing, his mins will drop…so yeah prob won’t drop rest of his career 😂

Painter wants his players to be defensive liabilities? Loyers biggest advantage is and has been that his shooting isn't replicated by anyone else who would play that position. So the bump in defense wasn't worth the dropoff in offense because there was no real scoring threat after Edey/TKR and Smith. Loyer was inconsistent but he could give you 30 on a given night so that plus his presence opened things up.

On paper, this is the first time the team could have as many as 5-6 potential scoring threats on the team and that's not including Cox and Harris who could jump. There are a lot more options for when Loyer is in a mini slump now. Whether Painter adjusts minutes accordingly I'm skeptical of but we will see.

 

[northside100]

Loyer in range of 23ish.

Sir, step away from the crack pipe 😉

 

[northside100]

Smith- 34
Cox- 24
Loyer- 30
TKR- 34
Cluff- 25

Jacobsen- 15
Mayer- 14
Harris- 16
Murphy- 8

I think it'll be close to that. Painters biggest question will be who plays the 4(in this minutes scenario I gave Murphy all 6 left and 2 at the 3). Burgess will probably grab a few minutes. He may take all 6 left. No clue. But just going with 9 guys, I think this could be how it shakes out.

Pains me to say it but this is the most realistic view I’ve seen 😊 Unless Cox takes a huge step (it’s possible), I think his mpg are closer to 20 and Mayer and Harris’ mpg are higher than your estimate, but the competition between those three will be fierce. No idea how the minutes between DJ and Cluff shake out, that will be interesting.

 

[northside100]

Didn't Jacobson start last year before breaking his leg? Hard to imagine we'll have 7'4" on the bench while starting three guards.

So starting lineup includes Trey, Cluff and DJ if you don’t see three guards starting?

 

[northside100]

My guess is Benter (and maybe West too) see way more minutes.

Having new options of Mayer, Benter and West might lower Loyer's minutes even more than you already did. Guy HAD to play alot last year. Might not be the case next year.

Hoping Mayer can help Smith so he doesn't have so much on his shoulders. Smith @ 30??? That means Mayer is REAL good!!

Are you predicting an 11 man rotation if Benter and West play ‘way more minutes’?

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Sir, step away from the crack pipe 😉

Ok that’s what I’d realistically think he should….but it’ll be closer to 30. He’s been in that 27-30 range his whole career so far so more than likely it’ll be 30 again.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

Painter wants his players to be defensive liabilities? Loyers biggest advantage is and has been that his shooting isn't replicated by anyone else who would play that position. So the bump in defense wasn't worth the dropoff in offense because there was no real scoring threat after Edey/TKR and Smith. Loyer was inconsistent but he could give you 30 on a given night so that plus his presence opened things up.

On paper, this is the first time the team could have as many as 5-6 potential scoring threats on the team and that's not including Cox and Harris who could jump. There are a lot more options for when Loyer is in a mini slump now. Whether Painter adjusts minutes accordingly I'm skeptical of but we will see.

Haha I agree with you that he shouldn’t see as many mins as last, but also agree that painter loves himself some Loyer. and he loves Loyer because Loyer does a lot of things right that paint wants out of a player…did not say it was because of his stellar defense 😂

 

[Quix0te]

So starting lineup includes Trey, Cluff and DJ if you don’t see three guards starting?

That's my hunch, yes. But that could be tweaked depending upon who they're lined up against.

 

[02BoilerUp]

That's my hunch, yes. But that could be tweaked depending upon who they're lined up against.

0% chance of that happening.

 

[northside100]

That's my hunch, yes. But that could be tweaked depending upon who they're lined up against.

Which of Trey, Cluff and DJ would you have guarding the opponents 3 position?

 

[Quix0te]

Which of Trey, Cluff and DJ would you have guarding the opponents 3 position?

Depends if the 3 is 6'5" or 6'10".

 

[northside100]

Haha I agree with you that he shouldn’t see as many mins as last, but also agree that painter loves himself some Loyer. and he loves Loyer because Loyer does a lot of things right that paint wants out of a player…did not say it was because of his stellar defense 😂

Ok that’s what I’d realistically think he should….but it’ll be closer to 30. He’s been in that 27-30 range his whole career so far so more than likely it’ll be 30 again.

If only Painter and staff had access to deep data and assigned playing time using an analytics informed approach rather than just relying on gut feel and guys they like.

In all seriousness, who knows, maybe Meyer and / or the two sophomores will be superstars and your minute allocation will be right. That would be pretty cool.

 

[northside100]

Depends if the 3 is 6'5" or 6'10".

How many 6’10” guys do you expect we’ll see at the 3?

 

[Bank Shot Podcast]

So starting lineup includes Trey, Cluff and DJ if you don’t see three guards starting?

Even Dr. Strange can't find a universe where TKR, Cluff and Jacobsen share the floor.

 

[02BoilerUp]

How many 6’10” guys do you expect we’ll see at the 3?

Yeah like not only is there no chance that those 3 start together, but I think the odds of them ever all 3 being on the court in game mins together is essentially zero as well.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Are you predicting an 11 man rotation if Benter and West play ‘way more minutes’?

Might not see 11...never have. But might see different waves of players come in??

One thing for sure CMP always coaches to who he has....and this might be the deepest team with the most weapons he ever has assembled??

 

[WHS70]

Do not redshirt anyone unless they have an injury! Just giving some other school with a player who chose to leave us another year to play somewhere else. JMHO

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Do not redshirt anyone unless they have an injury! Just giving some other school with a player who chose to leave us another year to play somewhere else. JMHO

There are plenty of benefits to redshirting.

 

[northside100]

Might not see 11...never have. But might see different waves of players come in??

One thing for sure CMP always coaches to who he has....and this might be the deepest team with the most weapons he ever has assembled??

I made a similar comment two seasons ago about starting with a core group that plays every game and taking a much more matchup-based approach to subs, where a guy may play 20 minutes off the bench one game and two minutes, or not at all another, based on the matchup and how he's playing. I like it as a thought exercise, not sure that it's practical.

I think the reality is you have three guys set in the front court (Trey, Oscar, and DJ) and five guys set in the back court (Braden, Fletch, CJ, Gicarri, and Omer), and unless something surprising happens, that group plays most of the minutes. That leaves you with two talented and very different guys in RB and Murphy playing support roles in limited minutes, and two guards in West and Benter that the staff really likes, but would need to make major offseason moves to see real playing time. Good problem to have, and hopefully the guys who are likely to play more limited in-game roles compete their butts off this summer and into the fall.

 

[northside100]

Do not redshirt anyone unless they have an injury! Just giving some other school with a player who chose to leave us another year to play somewhere else. JMHO

Trey Kaufman-Renn says hello.

 

[northside100]

There are plenty of benefits to redshirting.

Especially when you have 12 guys on the roster this season who are likely legitimately good enough to play in the Big Ten now. Even if they never see a fifth year at Purdue, I have to imagine it's easier to make it through a year where you're not playing if you know there could be a big fifth-year payday waiting for you at the end. I've lost count of how many times MP has emphasized the need to do what's right for the player in addition to the program.

 

[punaj]

I am reminded of the talk about Edey and Williams sharing the floor. To see that combo now would be pretty fun.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Do not redshirt anyone unless they have an injury! Just giving some other school with a player who chose to leave us another year to play somewhere else. JMHO

Yah it suck’s we redshirted TKR so he can play elsewhere this year