You are making the wildly huge and unsupported assumption that the incoming players will be as good or better in our crap system then they were at their previous spot. That clearly has not been the case with most portal players her the last few years. Some have, Ellis and Terry, others had major flaws to their games that previous coaches had the skills to mask but our coaches do not.
The portal is not perfect and like recruiting there will be hits and misses, especially when you have kids transferring up a level, but lets look at the portal additions under KG - shall we?
HARD HITS
Harper Sr - Transferred up a level - Flourished in the system
Terry - Kept as same P4 level - Flourished in the system
Ellis - Transferred up a level - Flourished in the system
Petree Sr. - Transferred up a level - Flourished in the system
Lombard - Transferred up a level - Led the team in scoring this past year - so I would call that flourishing
Ella Collier - Transferred WAY up several levels - surpassed many expectations of a NAIA player being elevated to B10 basketball.
SOFT/NUETRAL HITS
Bass - Transferred up a level - Was decent - Averaged 8/5 this year - didn't match her previous numbers from her lower level school - but playing in the post in the Big 10 and the post in the MAC are two completely different beasts. I was not expecting her to match her 16/9 production from junior year - but we didn't really need her to due to Puryear and McCarthy's production as a true freshmen. She averaged 35 minutes per game at Akron because she WAS their post game. Those decreased to 23 mpg with us because we had 2 others that were able to help her - obviously stats will decrease.
HARD MISSES
Petree Jr. - Transferred up a level - severely struggled - didn't have super high expectations coming in nor she had very good production at her previous spot to warrant any expectation she would produce for us - so I was confused why we were adding her but for potential depth if we had a bunch of injuries - we did - just not at the wing spot we overloaded at - so def a miss but not at all a surprising one.
Mila Reynolds - Transferred same level - This is probably the hardest miss for KG in the portal just because she was super highly regarded as a high school prospect and we really needed production out of her - right away. Obviously she barely played at Maryland - but Maryland was stacked at her position per usual and incoming freshmen rarely play right away for Frese - unless they are All Americans so I was hoping that given the PT opportunity with us she could flourish - but she never did.
Mide Oiyomi - Tranferred up a level - She was one of KG's first adds from the portal - not sure why we needed her but I think it was just a grab at anyone that is somewhat athletic to come help us. She went from averaging 31 minutes per game at Northeastern 11/7 to 9 minutes with us. Clear, obvious miss - was it super unexpected? No. She transferred back to lower level and had a nice season with FAMU. That is level she should've stayed at.
Rokia Doumbia - Transferred at same level - I'll add her here because I think she came through the portal from Arkansas. Didn't produce much at Arkansas - didn't produce with us - transferred to USC - didn't produce there. So yes a miss - but she's been a miss everywhere she has been - not sure why we felt the need to add her other than to have a roster of players in KG's first year.
SOFT MISSES
Harper Jr. - Transferred up a level - struggled - but I think a lot of that was her mental issues she was having and what ultimately ended her career - didn't have high expectations coming in so not surprising, she was never meant to carry a team - always a depth piece. I would say she lived up to her potential the games she played - but she wasn't the diamond in the rough her sister was, obviously.
So of the 12 transfer portal players that have been added by KG - 7 are what I consider Hits (Hard/soft) and 5 have been misses (hard/soft).
Of the 7 'hits' - a whopping 5 of them transferred up a level with 2 staying same level. That's pretty darn good considering it's easy having a HIT with P4 transfer. Not so much with a mid major one.
Of the 5 misses - 3 transferred up a level - with neither of them producing a ton at their smaller schools - and 2 stayed the same level - one a complete unknown (MILA) the other (ROKIA) not really producing much at her previous school. So am I surprised that all of these 5 were misses - NOPE.
The major difference between these 5 misses and the 3 kids we currently have in the portal? All the 2025 portal additions have shown to be able to produce against P4 level competition at their previous schools. That's a major indicator that they will produce with us.