What Kind of Teams Will Be Match-Up Problemsw for Us?

[mathboy]

Now that we know the personnel, and we have seen one exhibition game, let's do some speculation about the team. We know that Purdue is going to be difficult for many teams to match-up against, but who will give us trouble?

Of course any team with a better front line than we have since it will be our "go to" position. SInce there won't be too many teams that will match us along the front line, what other types of teams could be a problem?

I am thinking that teams with quick, athletic guards might be a problem, but we were able to deal well with those sorts last year, although the Minny game sticks out as an example. Maybe we learned from that and found a way to handle Indiana which was also guard oriented. However, I would not single out Yogi and JBJ as "quick" guards.

 

[Heller]

Any team that shoots well and can transition quickly. The problem is that our opponents should have to keep 5 guys on the defensive board given the size and ability of guys like Caleb and Vince not to mention Haas and Hammons. That may cut down on the ability to get out and run on us. But our weakness is definitely the fact we aren't quick.

 

[BBG]

Any team that shoots well and can transition quickly. The problem is that our opponents should have to keep 5 guys on the defensive board given the size and ability of guys like Caleb and Vince not to mention Haas and Hammons. That may cut down on the ability to get out and run on us. But our weakness is definitely the fact we aren't quick.

Agree. Also any team we take for granted. I know that is a given, but if we take a cupcake for granted that could bite us

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Illinois also gave Purdue problems last year.

The team that jumps out to me that can give the front-line problems is Michigan State. Wisconsin, Maryland, and Iowa did last year, but some key departures (Wells - MD) (Kaminsky - Dekker - Wisconsin) (White - Olaseni - Iowa) offset that a little.

The good thing is that Purdue is going to give most teams its own match-up problems, especially if the Boilers are patient and can consistently hit from outside. Also, if C Swanigan and others can control the defensive boards, something that hasn't happened in a while consistently.....we might see a little more controlled fast break from the Boilers this year. That's also one of the better times to take the open three.

 

[dumpsterFyre]

Speaking of JBJ and Yogi, I don't think they will be a problem to defend and can getb swatted by a trailing AJ. It's the guys who can get up and down and have height to finish that will do well against us like Troy Williams and the duo from Illinois.

 

[Statey]

I am thinking that teams with quick, athletic guards might be a problem, but we were able to deal well with those sorts last year, although the Minny game sticks out as an example. Maybe we learned from that and found a way to handle Indiana which was also guard oriented. However, I would not single out Yogi and JBJ as "quick" guards.

I had the same thought you did: quicker, guard-oriented teams could be a problem on the perimeter for DM and KS, which could lead to foul trouble down low. Fortunately Purdue has a solid back-up in Haas which mitigates the issues of Hammons getting into foul trouble. But I'd have to think that dominant guardplay is the biggest threat for Purdue getting into trouble in games.

And I would strongly disagree with your assessment that Yogi is not a "quick guard". He and Melo are probably the quickest (and best) PGs in the league and may be 2 of the harder players to defend and contend with that Purdue faces all season.

 

[proudopete]

Now that we know the personnel, and we have seen one exhibition game, let's do some speculation about the team. We know that Purdue is going to be difficult for many teams to match-up against, but who will give us trouble?

Of course any team with a better front line than we have since it will be our "go to" position. SInce there won't be too many teams that will match us along the front line, what other types of teams could be a problem?

I am thinking that teams with quick, athletic guards might be a problem, but we were able to deal well with those sorts last year, although the Minny game sticks out as an example. Maybe we learned from that and found a way to handle Indiana which was also guard oriented. However, I would not single out Yogi and JBJ as "quick" guards.

Deep teams with sound fundamental defensive principles.
All others shall whither away as the game goes deep into the second half.

 

[koopmeister]

I had the same thought you did: quicker, guard-oriented teams could be a problem on the perimeter for DM and KS, which could lead to foul trouble down low. Fortunately Purdue has a solid back-up in Haas which mitigates the issues of Hammons getting into foul trouble. But I'd have to think that dominant guardplay is the biggest threat for Purdue getting into trouble in games.

And I would strongly disagree with your assessment that Yogi is not a "quick guard". He and Melo are probably the quickest (and best) PGs in the league and may be 2 of the harder players to defend and contend with that Purdue faces all season.

I also agree Yogi is quick. We don't have an easy answer for him defensively. I would contend in addition to speed, we are not a terribly athletic team and that could be a problem against top 5 teams that also have depth, better athleticism/speed and superior scoring NBA prospects...and beyond RD do not have a perimeter defender that would grade out as excellent. As deep as we are offensively, we do not have superior defensive depth which is why keeping Davis healthy and out of foul trouble is so important against teams that can fill it up imo. Where we might also struggle is while we have scoring depth, we don't have that slam dunk NBA scoring prospect unless VE emerges as we are all hoping. The early return appears that we are at least better than last year with the rest to be seen. Since we have such a solid out/in team I am guessing it will only be problematic with tight games down the stretch...or when the offense finds that occasional scoring drought and needs that 'A' level player to right the ship...but it is a chink in the armor. Our greatest advantage is being a solid veteran team that is well above average defensively and at all times will have multiple scoring threats on the floor. The difference from being good to great this year will most certainly fall on health of Davis and AJ...the best defenders on our team...and how consistent our perimeter game can be. From the development view I wanted Cline to redshirt as I think he will be behind KS and DM all season...but from having another perimeter weapon to help provide genuine danger for the opponent all season, I think he will likely hit at least a big shot or two that might be a difference maker before all is said and done.

 

[SnowLeopard]

Great points, but I suspect that Hill may become that additional excellent perimeter defender we are looking for.

As for a lack of speed/athleticism, there is always the option of playing Vince at the 4, Ray at the 3 and Stephens at the 2...Painter will experiment and we will find our true identity in Jan/Feb

Enjoy this year, guys. Not saying Vince and Swanigan will for sure be leaving after this season, but the 2017 draft is supposed to be packed full of talent so it might be a tactical decision to avoid the 2017 draft

I also agree Yogi is quick. We don't have an easy answer for him defensively. I would contend in addition to speed, we are not a terribly athletic team and that could be a problem against top 5 teams that also have depth, better athleticism/speed and superior scoring NBA prospects...and beyond RD do not have a perimeter defender that would grade out as excellent. As deep as we are offensively, we do not have superior defensive depth which is why keeping Davis healthy and out of foul trouble is so important against teams that can fill it up imo. Where we might also struggle is while we have scoring depth, we don't have that slam dunk NBA scoring prospect unless VE emerges as we are all hoping. The early return appears that we are at least better than last year with the rest to be seen. Since we have such a solid out/in team I am guessing it will only be problematic with tight games down the stretch...or when the offense finds that occasional scoring drought and needs that 'A' level player to right the ship...but it is a chink in the armor. Our greatest advantage is being a solid veteran team that is well above average defensively and at all times will have multiple scoring threats on the floor. The difference from being good to great this year will most certainly fall on health of Davis and AJ...the best defenders on our team...and how consistent our perimeter game can be. From the development view I wanted Cline to redshirt as I think he will be behind KS and DM all season...but from having another perimeter weapon to help provide genuine danger for the opponent all season, I think he will likely hit at least a big shot or two that might be a difference maker before all is said and done.

 

[Statey]

Great points, but I suspect that Hill may become that additional excellent perimeter defender we are looking for.

You know, I thought about that too as I was posting. When asked in chat a couple weeks ago, Brian stated his opinion is that PJ would start over Hill at the beginning of the year. That really surprised me and left me wondering whether PJ had come along that much in the off-season, or whether the older, maturer Hill was struggling a bit relative to Painter's liking. Granted it was just his opinion, but he's a lot more connected than the average person so I was trying to read between the lines a little.

 

[IamBob]

The only team I'm worried about giving us trouble is the 3rd team on the court wearing the black and white. Their inconsistency is their biggest strength.

 

[CRBoiler]

Thanks for the new topic - old ones were getting stale.

I think it helps to look at last year's losses, especially the ones where we played at least OK but got beat (as opposed to beating ourselves).

Characteristics of teams that beat us last year:
- Defensive pressure / athleticism - forcing turnovers, creating offensive possession margin & points off of turnovers
- Offensively aggressive, creating many more FT attempts for themselves then we got
- Strong execution - fewer turnovers/breakdowns/scoring lulls than us
- More great/versatile individual players - We had a harder time matching up with them than they had matching up with us

Looking at most of the losses last year, why we lost, and how things might be different this year...
K-State: They beat us by protecting the basketball, applying defensive pressure (creating turnovers/steals), and out rebounding us. Both teams shot well, but they got more buckets from having more possessions, so they won. This year, I *hope* we can handle the pressure better, and I ***know*** we are going to be an even better rebounding team with Biggie in the mix. I think this year's team would beat last year's K-State team.
Vanderbilt: This was a pretty even match-up in most categories. We shot a respectable overall percentage, but Kendall was cold from 3 (and as y'all know he shoots a lot of them, so that hurts). They shot very well, including from 3, and that was the difference. I think our rebounding margin against Vanderbilt should be better this year, and we should get better looks inside & out with Caleb. BUT any time the other team shoots considerably better than we do, it could become a loss. Strong defense that minimizes the risk of lights out shooting is how to address this.
Notre Dame (sigh): Even though we didn't play well, we should look at this game because it was our most lopsided loss. They beat us in every category, and the difference according to the coach afterward was just that they defeated our spirit. We had a lead early and then Notre Dame got hot and we got discouraged. Our confidence and energy went down. Later in the season, I think we did much better as far as managing our emotions, and I believe that maturity should carry into this year. I'm not sure who could have beaten the Irish that night honestly, but we should not have lost that bad
Wisconsin: Out executed us, and we had trouble with matchups, which they exploited. In the second game, they also shot the rock quite a bit better than we did. We're better positioned this year as far as matchups, but an elite, disciplined team like this will have the opportunity to beat us, especially if they're hitting shots.
Maryland: Free throws / fouls, steals, and general execution were among the biggest differences between the two teams. Neither team shot that well percentage wise. This year, it seems like our FTs will be improved (knocking hard on wood). We need to improve a click or two on defensive discipline compared to last year to win a game like this, IMO.
Illinois: Pretty even overall matchup. Leron Black had a great game, scoring and especially on the boards. Free throws and rebounding margin stand out to me as the biggest differences. It seems like we should be better in both those areas this year.
Minnesota (I'm getting sick remembering): Pressure and solid execution to capitalize on our mistakes. If we can't do better than we did at the start of the 2nd half of the Minny game we lost last year, then we will lose. I think this year, with Biggie, we have a great passing big that should help a ton with pressure. And it is possible that Johnny is quick enough with a good enough handle to just blast past pressure the way some of our PGs in the past could do.
OSU: Biggest difference (other than Russell) was that OSU got to the line and hit the FTs. Seems like a repeating theme... losing because of the margin of made free throws. I think our bigs are going to get to the line plenty this year, and so far they're hitting FTs, so I would like to think this pattern does not come up over and over again this year.
MSU: According to coach, the difference was toughness. Our bigs did not have a great game. AGAIN, the made FT margin was greater than the margin of victory. As I look back at these games and look at the losses, and assuming our FT shooting really is better, I think we need to look for chances to be more aggressive on offense to get to the line more so we don't have that problem with FT margin.
Cincinnati: We lost because we failed to execute when it was crunch time, and other team did execute. Shoulda won that one.

 

[Mandeville LA]

Now that we know the personnel, and we have seen one exhibition game, let's do some speculation about the team. We know that Purdue is going to be difficult for many teams to match-up against, but who will give us trouble?

Of course any team with a better front line than we have since it will be our "go to" position. SInce there won't be too many teams that will match us along the front line, what other types of teams could be a problem?

I am thinking that teams with quick, athletic guards might be a problem, but we were able to deal well with those sorts last year, although the Minny game sticks out as an example. Maybe we learned from that and found a way to handle Indiana which was also guard oriented. However, I would not single out Yogi and JBJ as "quick" guards.

It all comes down to shooting. If we shoot well we can play with anyone. If our shooting is like it has been for the last four years we can get beat by anyone. We like to analyze this to death. Can you do some things to support good shots and stop good shots, yes. The shoots have to fall. Just like you need great pitching in the postseason to win the WS. I am over simplifying, but it is true. We have to become a better shooting team.

 

[FinallyABoilerFinal4]

Athletic teams. Mathias, Cline, Stephens, Swanigan, Hammons. None of these guys is going to win a sprinting or jumping competition. Basil swung the scales a little in Purdue's favor in terms of athleticism. Now, Purdue is pretty much mid-major talent with elite size & depth. The Midwest Gonzaga.

 

[JBoiler14]

Athletic teams. Mathias, Cline, Stephens, Swanigan, Hammons. None of these guys is going to win a sprinting or jumping competition. Basil swung the scales a little in Purdue's favor in terms of athleticism. Now, Purdue is pretty much mid-major talent with elite size & depth. The Midwest Gonzaga.

I dont think Gonzaga has ever had the physical presence we do with our big men. I think Vince and Ray-D might surprise some people with their athleticism, along with Hill possibly

 

[blockm2]

Personally I look forward to seeing how Michigan and Purdue match up. While Michigan has the capability of playing a much bigger lineup than usual this year, Beilein does have a soft spot for going small and trying to shoot teams out of the building. That sets up the potential contrast of Purdue trying to just pound the ball down low every possession on one end while Michigan tries to force their big guys to run around the 3 point line on the other. Always interesting to see that contrast and then see which team ends up giving up and trying to match up with the other.

 

[TC4THREE]

Good ones.

 

[lbodel]

Now that we know the personnel, and we have seen one exhibition game, let's do some speculation about the team. We know that Purdue is going to be difficult for many teams to match-up against, but who will give us trouble?

Of course any team with a better front line than we have since it will be our "go to" position. SInce there won't be too many teams that will match us along the front line, what other types of teams could be a problem?

I am thinking that teams with quick, athletic guards might be a problem, but we were able to deal well with those sorts last year, although the Minny game sticks out as an example. Maybe we learned from that and found a way to handle Indiana which was also guard oriented. However, I would not single out Yogi and JBJ as "quick" guards.

Think about it….Purdue typically has not been an overly "big" team in years past, so how did Purdue counter?

A few weaknesses from last year from Big Ten play only statistics:

-Free Throws (11th)
-Turnover margin (13th)
-3 point FG (12th)
-Defensive rebounding (5th) - while not bad, we should have been much better (we were 2nd in rebounding offense)

-With free throws, that obviously could have won a couple more games for us last year alone. While I do not want to make any assumptions, it appears this has improved at least to a respectable level.

-Turnover margin I think is a stat that was overlooked from last year. We averaged 13.4 turnovers a game. To give you an idea, Wisconsin averaged 6.8. We certainly do not need to be at that level, but being around 10 is a swing of 4-6 points (between us having 3+ more possessions and other teams having 3 fewer possessions). Also, considering how good we are with assists, last year we were 2nd in assists, yet 10th in assist to turnover ratio.

As posters above have already mentioned, we will not be a very quick team. So that's one area of exploiting.

Also, last year we struggled to defend the 3 (through the non-conf and first part of the conference schedule). We did improve and we did a great job for most of conference play, but we still had some problems. This is how we lost some games we shouldn't have. This will be key to avoiding trip-ups in the non-conference schedule as the new guys are gelling in the system. We are still going to rely on our defense - yes, we should be an improved offensive team, but this team is set-up to succeed heavily on defense.

The other thing is foul trouble. While we are deep, taking away options is not a good thing. Eventually you're going to get some teams that aren't going to be afraid to go after the size - even if it's just them using their back-ups to get physical inside. Remember the @ MSU game last year? They threw a back up at Hammons and it gave him fits. They weren't afraid of our size and we didn't know how to handle it. We need to be not afraid of contact, yet also not too eager to draw contact, especially against undersized opponents (see next comment).

And obviously depending on the opponent, Haas still has some work to do to match-up well against some other teams (and we're almost "too big" sometimes - remember Haas' issue with elbows and offensive fouls). This isn't just from our bigs - Davis had some issues with fouls.

I will say that (while not untrue of other teams), we have the all-around game and depth to control most situations. If teams stack the inside, we have some veteran 1, 2 and 3s that need to step up and fix it. If they are locking us down on the perimeter, the bigs need to put themselves in good position to be fed the ball, limit turnovers and take advantage of the charity line.