This game more than any game on the schedule makes me the most nervous. Why? We've been cursed against Butler and Xavier for the last 10 years. Ever since Brad Stephens was there, Butler has been sprinkled with fairy dust. It seems every time we play them, one of Purdue's key players has an abysmal game or gets in early foul trouble, and/or one of their 4's has a career game from the perimeter, and/or their guards make circus shots on drives........... In other words, as a fan, I'm paranoid about Butler. They are totally "in my head".
On paper, Purdue has some imposing advantages. Butler has weapons for sure. One that I believe Purdue can/will neutralize is Jones. He makes his entire living on crafty junk points around the hoop. Purdue size, and most importantly depth of size, is going to a huge problem for him. In past games, if Landry, JJ, Sandi got in foul trouble, which they did, guys like him just ate Purdue up.
Then there is Dunham. He is Gordon Heyward 2.0 in so many ways. As much as I like Purdue's guys, I think he will be the best player on the court. I also think he will play in the NBA. Ray will clearly get the call, and I believe Butler will get Dunham the ball early and have him drive in hopes of getting Ray in quick foul trouble because of the new way that Refs are calling games. Dunham's mid-game makes me nervous. He doesn't have to get all the way to the hoop (where the towers await) to score. Hopefully Purdue's new approach to sag a bit on perimeter players and force them to the wings and baseline will help keep Dunham out of the lane. I just hope that Ray doesn't get over-anxious and revert to the in-your-grill approach and get 2 early fouls.
To me, the entire key to the game is to make sure that Martin, Wideman, Lewis, or some guy who has not scored more than 4 points in a game doesn't go off. To me, this has been the Butler fairy dust effect against Purdue recently. I honestly believe that 2 of these guys have to play great for Butler to win because I have a difficult time seeing Jones having a huge game. If Dunham is held to his average, Purdue wins. Even if one of the "other" players goes off, Jones is going to have hit his averages for them to have a chance unless Purdue just stinks it up on offense and can't hit a shot. But Butler has not shown that they are as good defensively as they have been in the past....so it's hard to see Purdue completely tanking simply because they can pound it inside better than any team in college this year.
So you can see that rationally I can completely convince myself that Purdue should/will win, and should/would win 8 out of 10, or something like that. But until it happens, I fear the worst, and can only hope for the best.
