Poll: Can IL win out heading into Purdue game?

[northside100]

IL has been vocal about looking forward to playing Purdue in Champaign. Assuming that Purdue wins the games that it should heading into that game, the question is whether IL can win enough games for the Purdue game to be impactful to the Big Ten race. See below for their remaining schedule and win likelihood % from ESPN analytics, which would suggest that they'll lose 2 or 3 of those upcoming games:

at MSU - 43%
vs UM - 93%
at MD - 66%
at PSU - 78%
vs IA - 86%
vs MN - 91%
at WI - 41%

 

[qazplm]

Hard to imagine they win all four remaining road games before playing us.

 

[BoilerMaker P]

They’ve had some close calls at IU and Nebraska at home. Have to think somebody might get them on the road. MSU, Maryland, and Wisconsin all still to come and then that second tier of spoilers like Iowa, PSU, and Minnesota. B1G may be “down” but the potential losses are still out there every night.

 

[northside100]

They’ve had some close calls at IU and Nebraska at home. Have to think somebody might get them on the road. MSU, Maryland, and Wisconsin all still to come and then that second tier of spoilers like Iowa, PSU, and Minnesota. B1G may be “down” but the potential losses are still out there every night.

Completely agree. At MSU and Wisky seem like toss ups and PSU and MD are good enough to beat them at home if they play well and / or IL has an off night.

Tough remaining slate. If they win out going into Purdue they're probably top five in the polls and would have a winning record in Quad 1 and may be looking at a 2 seed. I don't see that happening but I could be wrong.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I think there is an excellent chance that we have won the outright title before we go to Champaign.

 

[RDUBoiler]

I voted one, but I somehow missed that they are playing at Wisconsin. I think they'l lose at MSU and at Wisconsin.

 

[DwaynePurvis00]

They’re good but have only beaten one ranked team all year that’s about to be unranked.

Side note…I feel Illinois has a weird obsession with Purdue these days.

 

[BoilerMaker P]

Side note…I feel Illinois has a weird obsession with Purdue these days.

They have a hard on for Zach. You can’t find a post about Purdue on social media without Illinois fan accounts throughout the comments.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

They have a hard on for Zach. You can’t find a post about Purdue on social media without Illinois fan accounts throughout the comments.

If I’m an Illini fan, I’m not even thinking about Purdue at this point. They will have their hands full today with MSU.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

If I’m an Illini fan, I’m not even thinking about Purdue at this point. They will have their hands full today with MSU.

Kinda hilarious: As I'm catching up on posts I got a notification on my phone from CBS Sports with "Expert Picks" for the Top 25. In the notification, not even the article, it tells me: "No. 10 Illinois will have hands full with Michigan St."

 

[Roeder]

If I’m an Illini fan, I’m not even thinking about Purdue at this point. They will have their hands full today with MSU.

The crazy thing is that a win against a very mid Michigan State would be Illinois highest KenPom win. Their current best KP wins are 28 FAU on a neutral and 47 NW at home. They pass the eye test, but their resume to date is not one of a top 10 team. Huge game for them.

I think that is why Illinois fans are salty with Purdue. A good team, but they are jealous of Purdue's resume/success to actually back up those claims. They hang their hats on a 5 point loss to Purdue without best player, but I personally would never crow about a game where my team was down 10-20 most of the game. I also think they were better TEAM without Shannon, and he has ironically HURT is draft stock with his play since coming back too...We'll see if he gets on track again soon.

 

[Heads up BOILER]

I honestly think that they will beat WS they present matchup problems in that game, I believe that beside that game, MN, PS and MSU will be tough games for them and possibly MD. For some reason I really have a gut feeling that MN is gonna knock them off at home.

 

[northside100]

I voted one, but I somehow missed that they are playing at Wisconsin. I think they'l lose at MSU and at Wisconsin.

Well that was quick, good call. Not sure Wisky can beat anyone right now but suspect they’ll get it figured out in the next couple of weeks.

 

[BoilerAndy]

If I’m an Illini fan, I’m not even thinking about Purdue at this point. They will have their hands full today with MSU.

This post aged extremely well.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

IL has been vocal about looking forward to playing Purdue in Champaign. Assuming that Purdue wins the games that it should heading into that game, the question is whether IL can win enough games for the Purdue game to be impactful to the Big Ten race. See below for their remaining schedule and win likelihood % from ESPN analytics, which would suggest that they'll lose 2 or 3 of those upcoming games:

at MSU - 43%
vs UM - 93%
at MD - 66%
at PSU - 78%
vs IA - 86%
vs MN - 91%
at WI - 41%

That equates to a 15% chance they win those games out (obviously not counting msu game).

 

[tjreese]

That equates to a 15% chance they win those games out (obviously not counting msu game).

I just wonder who will be in the 4th bracket of the BTT since Purdue will be #1. Will it be NW, Wisconsin or does MSU slip in?

 

[northside100]

That equates to a 15% chance they win those games out (obviously not counting msu game).

Right. Even after the MSU game, there's a very high chance that they drop at least one more and a significant chance that they drop two more.

 

[northside100]

I just wonder who will be in the 4th bracket of the BTT since Purdue will be #1. Will it be NW, Wisconsin or does MSU slip in?

Will be fascinating to see how it plays out. Obviously NU and Wisky in the lead for the 3/4 with five losses each but MSU and Minny close behind with six losses and five more teams with seven losses each.

Seems like there's a little more separation towards the top than last year, when nine teams finished within two games of each other at #2 through #10 (resulting in the joke of Chris Collins winning BTCOY for finishing 'second', despite MP starting the year unranked and ending as a 1 seed in the NCAAT), but it's going to be a dog fight after the first two or three teams.

 

[Dryfly88]

Log jam of mediocrity.

 

[POTFHBTFU]

Will be fascinating to see how it plays out. Obviously NU and Wisky in the lead for the 3/4 with five losses each but MSU and Minny close behind with six losses and five more teams with seven losses each.

Seems like there's a little more separation towards the top than last year, when nine teams finished within two games of each other at #2 through #10 (resulting in the joke of Chris Collins winning BTCOY for finishing 'second', despite MP starting the year unranked and ending as a 1 seed in the NCAAT), but it's going to be a dog fight after the first two or three teams.

Agree. To me it’s pretty apparent the pecking order of the too half and they all appear to be falling in line with the standings
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Northwestern
MSU
Minny
Nebraska

the Illinois - wisconsin game will settle that and you can make an argument msu will push past NU, but I don’t think there’s another big ten team that deserves to be in the discussion of March madness. Minny was mentioned on tv as looking good recently but their loss yesterday was untimely. They barely beat msu at home in their last game I’m not buying the hype.

 

[northside100]

Agree. To me it’s pretty apparent the pecking order of the too half and they all appear to be falling in line with the standings
Purdue
Illinois
Wisconsin
Northwestern
MSU
Minny
Nebraska

the Illinois - wisconsin game will settle that and you can make an argument msu will push past NU, but I don’t think there’s another big ten team that deserves to be in the discussion of March madness. Minny was mentioned on tv as looking good recently but their loss yesterday was untimely. They barely beat msu at home in their last game I’m not buying the hype.

Agree on your top five. There are certainly teams in position to move into that group (3 through 5) but I'd be surprised if it's not some combination of IL, WI, NU and MSU. I have no idea after that first five how things will shake out..

 

[Chi-Boiler]

5th through 11th is still separated by 1.5 games. Crazy, and no reason why it won't stay that way. And if Wisconsin continues their free-fall?