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Our nation's COVID-19 response is a disaster !

Here's a good look at the re-opening under Trump's leadership - Looks like Florida, California and Texas will be our top 3 by August.

(Listing of relative position on May 9th, based on total cases vs NOW)

1.) New York -333,122 cases - Now: 1.) 401,706
2.) New Jersey -137,397 cases - Now: 5.) 175,298
3.) Massachussetts- 76.743 cases - Now: 9.) 111,597
4.) Illinois - 76,085 - Now: 6.) 155,048
5.) California - 66, 826 cases - Now: 2.) 324,543
6.) Pennsylvania - 59,609 cases - Now: 10.) 99,794
7.) Michigan - 46,815 cases - Now: 13.) 76,776
8.) Florida - 40,007 cases - Now: 3.) 269,811
9.) Texas - 38,412 cases - Now: 4.) 262,762
10.) Connecticut - 32, 984 cases - Now: 21) 47,287

A few others:
11.) Georgia - 32,969 - Now: 8.) 116,935
19.) Tennessee - 14,768 cases - Now: 17.) 61,960
20.) North Carolina - 14,594 cases - Now: 11.) 85,771
(outside top 20) Arizona - Now: 7.) 122, 467 cases

Note: Highlighted the states I am watching the most
 
PurdueFan1 said:
Well now that Trump is retweeting scientists like Chuck Woolery, we have nothing to worry about. Dr Fauci was soooo springtime. It’s summer now, bitches, let’s go!!

View embedded media
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Yeah, same old playbook - claim it's fake news, hoaxes and lies. WE KNOW; however, as well as all of the families impacted, that they are going to be making those future comments while "looking in the mirror" !
 
PurdueFan1 said:
Now the White House is trying to discredit Dr Fauci. What a goddamned clown show this administration is. The pandemic will continue unabated until Trump is gone.

https://apple.news/AB3DyMRu8T-6lQXlUCwGXHA
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Might be a clown show in your eyes. Gov Cuomo, his weightlifting “roid” raged brother, Governor Newsom and others are politicizing this over the top. They are the real three ring circus!
 
MJ-79Boiler said:
Here's a good look at the re-opening under Trump's leadership - Looks like Florida, California and Texas will be our top 3 by August.

(Listing of relative position on May 9th, based on total cases vs NOW)

1.) New York -333,122 cases - Now: 1.) 401,706
2.) New Jersey -137,397 cases - Now: 5.) 175,298
3.) Massachussetts- 76.743 cases - Now: 9.) 111,597
4.) Illinois - 76,085 - Now: 6.) 155,048
5.) California - 66, 826 cases - Now: 2.) 324,543
6.) Pennsylvania - 59,609 cases - Now: 10.) 99,794
7.) Michigan - 46,815 cases - Now: 13.) 76,776
8.) Florida - 40,007 cases - Now: 3.) 269,811
9.) Texas - 38,412 cases - Now: 4.) 262,762
10.) Connecticut - 32, 984 cases - Now: 21) 47,287

A few others:
11.) Georgia - 32,969 - Now: 8.) 116,935
19.) Tennessee - 14,768 cases - Now: 17.) 61,960
20.) North Carolina - 14,594 cases - Now: 11.) 85,771
(outside top 20) Arizona - Now: 7.) 122, 467 cases

Note: Highlighted the states I am watching the most
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Do you have the same data with numbers of deaths?
 
PurdueFan1 said:
Stfu you stupid shit.
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Wow, I can name call as well. Your team
supports closing schools, businesses, defunding police (or as I heard yesterday the new DEM line is “Re-imagine Police”) and now we are to stay in place AGAIN!
Get out of here you idiot Libtard!!!
 
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TMan92 said:
Weekend started early?
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I’ll give you props for that funny comment.
Truth is I’m quite sober.
Next week, I’ll be crappie fishing on staycation and the cooler will get used a lot. The good news for all you is that I’m leaving my phone home.
 
MilwaukeeBoilerFan said:
Wow, I can name call as well. Your team
supports closing schools, businesses, defunding police (or as I heard yesterday the new DEM line is “Re-imagine Police”) and now we are to stay in place AGAIN!
Get out of here you idiot Libtard!!!
Click to expand...

And here we are with the Dems want school to close. The Dems want none of the things you just listed. You’re crazy if you think that. You’re also hypocritical. Screaming about freedoms and nonsense like that while the virus is raging. That’s the reason we are where we are. You really just need to quit the tough talk and get with reality
 
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They announced the school plans here in NC yesterday. Starting with one day a week and increasing according to stats per county. The governor is giving school districts some leeway to adjust based on their infection rate.

My 17 year old who's starting his senior year came to me last night in tears. He scared to death he's going to bring the virus home and infect his mother and I...... both pushing 60. Has trump even thought about that? Of course not.

He's not a never Trumper by any means but he is pissed and can't understand why things are still getting worse in July. "Why haven't we fixed this!," he says. I'm letting him figure out on his own who he thinks is responsible.
 
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Here are some comments about the Rem trial, which had Dr. F's hands all over it. The person who sent me this knows more about this than all of us combined. There is more than enough blame to go around with the cluster F way this has been managed. Dr. F is not exempt for blame by any means.

You asked me to provide some of the sound bites I discussed relative to Remdesivir studies. Most of these are generally replicated in the analyst press, but here they are.



  1. General Comment: I have been involved in study design and studies intermittently throughout my actuarial career. I continue to cringe at how science gets bent in research studies. Double blinded studies are the gold standard yet they can still be tricked. In addition, the scientific literature has ongoing discussions into the transferability of clinical trials to actual clinical practice. Retrospective studies are below clinical trials in terms of robustness. I completed a number of retrospective studies for pharmaceutical clients in the past. I always advised them that you can still drive a truck through any retrospective study no matter its elegance. Lastly, retrospective studies, in my opinion can support an hypothesis, but the hypothesis still needs to be validated by a controlled study.


  1. Remdesivir Endpoints. There is one absolute in a clinical study. The design of the study is consciensciously defined in advance of the study and is not changed. If you feel the need to change the study endpoints, the basis of comparison between treatment and non-treatment groups, you need to redesign the study and start over. Also, I believe it to be unethical to consider even starting a do over study. If you need to change the endpoints, you poorly designed the study in the first place. Sorry, you screwed up. You lose!


I find more than one egregious incident in the study that the FDA and NIAID used to recommend Remdesivir. First, the study researchers, Gilead, and the FDA all agreed to change the study endpoints after the study had enrolled over 70 patients. My opinion is harsh, but ethical. You screwed up. You lose. Either continue or ditch the study. “The NIAID said that the change was made while still blinded to all outcome data because agency statisticians had performed modeling showing that the original endpoint — an eight-point scale of how subjects were doing that ranged from dead (the worst outcome) to out of the hospital with no restriction on activities and no need for oxygen (the best) on the 15th day of the study — might not detect a difference where one existed.” The endpoint was changed to measure the time it took patients to no longer require supplemental oxygen in the hospital or to be out of the hospital entirely. Multiple egregious acts: shame on the researchers, Gilead, the NAIAD, and FDA for agreeing to the change.



  1. The Effect is WTF? I had heard the anecdotal leaks about the study contending a reduction in time to recovery and the zeal with which this was pressed in the media, the NAIAD, and Dr. Fauci. I questioned the excitement because I am mostly focused on mortality impact. Morbidity can be temporary, mortality is permanent. That is the first thing they teach you in actuarial science and why most naïve colleagues thought I was being trained to run a mortuary. The study conclusion states: “Remdesivir, which was authorized to treat Covid-19 in a group of 1063 adults and children (split into two groups, one receiving placebo instead of Remdesivir) who need (i) supplemental oxygen, (ii) a ventilator, or (iii) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO), only significantly helped those on supplemental oxygen.” Interpretation, we could not impact recovery time for people on ventilator or on life support. (Contrast this with the Leronlimab success at Montefiore.) The study could not statistically assign improvement in mortality to Remdesivir, yet you continuously hear about the unqualified mortality comparison of 11.9% to 7.1%. Another way to consider the outcome metrics. The early we institute treatment, the better the patient outcome. One of the most interesting things I observed in all the reading about COVID treatment protocols (other than there really weren’t any) was how slow the clinical community is to react to pharmaceutical treatment. The emerging in improvement in outcomes emerging in COVID statistics is likely due to more aggressive treatment – early and aggressive action.


  1. Junk Science Territory. Gilead recently released a retrospective study to determine whether there are differences in mortality between Remdesivir treated patients versus and patients treated by the prevailing standard of care. The conclusion: “The analysis demonstrated that Remdesivir treatment was associated with significantly improved clinical recovery and a 62 percent reduction in the risk of mortality compared to standard of care. Findings from the comparative analysis showed that 74.4 percent of Remdesivir-treated patients recovered by Day 14 versus 59.0 percent of patients receiving standard of care; recovery was defined as improvement in clinical status based on a 7-point ordinal scale. The mortality rate for patients treated with Remdesivir in the analysis was 7.6 percent at Day 14 compared with 12.5 percent among patients not taking Remdesivir (adjusted odds ratio 0.38, 95% confidence interval 0.22-0.68, p=0.001).” What I find interesting is that this study used a 7-point scale while the earlier clinical trial used the now famous 8-point scale. One has to wonder why the difference.


First, I have not read the study, so I have yet to start my truck so I can ram through it. Secondly, I don’t put much credence in retrospective studies. Third, the 62% reduction is hard to swallow given how much anecdotal information I have heard about the use of Remdesivir and its relative ineffectiveness in treating Covid patients. A number as large as 62% is also too profound relative to continuing mortality reporting, which I believe is fulfilling the standard pandemic model where the ‘low hanging fruit’ as substantially died off leaving less willing host patients in its wake. Finally, what prevailing standard of care? This can be a very selective variable. Early on, the standard of care was much different than what has emerged. Depending upon when the comparative cohort was selected will bias the study outcome.



On an unrelated note, a thought occurred to me. My belief, based upon Cytokine Storm research as it relates to flu viruses and the emerging science on Leronlimab MOA, Leronlimab should be part of a Government pandemic public stockpile going forward. The qualifier is that Leronlimab is an effective treatment. Not sure if it has been discussed, but it seems that is an argument you could win and would amount to millions of ongoing storage stocks.



As always, your mileage may vary.

These are snarky comments that I added.

The other bogus issue with this trial was the much publicized reduction in length of stay of these patients. If you ask anyone who has spent any time working in a hospital, particularly in an ICU setting, they will tell you there are a million dependent variables that impact patients' length of stay. I have probably spent as much time in ICU's as any non nurse or doctor plus my wife was a 30 year cardiac intensive care nurse and a nursing leader so I also learned a lot from her. In my professional opinion, the thing that impacts LOS the most in a hospital is the nursing care followed by the relationships between the nurses and the doctors, the quality and the amount of attention paid to the patients by his/her physicians and whether or not there were any known or, probably more importantly, unknown adverse drug events (ADE's). I would argue that these super sick patients have a lot of ADE's that may or may not be noted. There is no way in hell this study could have isolated all these variables. If you REALLY wanted to do this correctly, you would have to create a study where the patients had the same or relatively the same nurses.

If I understand the NYC situation, many of these patients were cared for either by travel nurses or nurses from other units who really did not know what they were doing. I guarantee you patients who were treated by these folks likely did not get as good as care. The sad thing is the folks running these numbers know at least some of this, but of course no one in the media is either competent or ethical enough to call any of this out.
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PurdueFan1 said:
And here we are with the Dems want school to close. The Dems want none of the things you just listed. You’re crazy if you think that. You’re also hypocritical. Screaming about freedoms and nonsense like that while the virus is raging. That’s the reason we are where we are. You really just need to quit the tough talk and get with reality
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If what you are saying is true about school closures, then Gavin Newsome is either lying or you don't have your facts straight to the recent news.
https://www.politico.com/states/cal...ill-remain-closed-when-classes-resume-9423610
Mayor Bill DeBlasio is wanting schools to remain closed. Seems disorganized...some open...some closed. What is it? This isn't the Hokey Pokey dance half in half out. That is disaster for learning.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer - At least she has a legible plan. What is not clear to me is it Region by Region or entire state? What happens in Detroit should not affect Traverse City.

You were saying DEMS don't want schools closed. Those recent news clips and headlines are all over main stream media right now.
 
MilwaukeeBoilerFan said:
If what you are saying is true about school closures, then Gavin Newsome is either lying or you don't have your facts straight to the recent news.
https://www.politico.com/states/cal...ill-remain-closed-when-classes-resume-9423610
Mayor Bill DeBlasio is wanting schools to remain closed. Seems disorganized...some open...some closed. What is it? This isn't the Hokey Pokey dance half in half out. That is disaster for learning.
Governor Gretchen Whitmer - At least she has a legible plan. What is not clear to me is it Region by Region or entire state. What happens in Detroit should not affect Traverse City.

You were saying DEMS don't want schools closed. That recent news clips and headlines says otherwise.
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You’re saying that Dems want things shut down for the sake of shutting down and to derail Trump. That is blatantly false and that’s the issue I have with your approach.

I agree there isn’t a one size fits all approach, but the feds saying “everyone needs to go back” is somehow better? Threatening to withhold funding is somehow better ?

Some areas won’t have a choice but to close because the virus is out of control. Others can probably safely do a phased approach.

And on a personal note: my sister in law just tested positive this morning for the virus. She most likely contracted it from a family member who flew in from Arizona at her father’s funeral a week and a half ago. So now my sister in law is in isolation from her husband and kids for the next week. She is feeling okay for the most part but the risk to the rest of her family is there but they aren’t able to get tested unless they develop any symptoms. So now they are doing contract tracing with everyone who went to the funeral. What I’m saying is you can take your comments about living in fear etc and shove them so far up your ass that they fall out of your mouth
 
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BuilderBob6 said:
They announced the school plans here in NC yesterday. Starting with one day a week and increasing according to stats per county. The governor is giving school districts some leeway to adjust based on their infection rate.

My 17 year old who's starting his senior year came to me last night in tears. He scared to death he's going to bring the virus home and infect his mother and I...... both pushing 60. Has trump even thought about that? Of course not.

He's not a never Trumper by any means but he is pissed and can't understand why things are still getting worse in July. "Why haven't we fixed this!," he says. I'm letting him figure out on his own who he thinks is responsible.
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"I'm letting him figure out on his own"... okay. And I'm looking forward to watching Maddow, Cuomo and Lemon tonight.
 
Now, President Slick wants the hospital COVID-19 data to go straight to the Trump administration instead of the CDC. I wonder what the President Slick Flav-Or-Aid drinkers have to say about that.
 
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PurdueFan1 said:
I’m sure Sean or Laura will do the same tonight about Trump. I would say Tucker too but as we all know, he’s rejuvenating himself this week so he can be all fresh and ready to double down next week on his bigotry and racism.
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Sean, Laura, and Tucker are opinion talk show hosts. The first two are conservatives and don't hide from it....Tucker is more of a libertarian/conservative and doesn't hide from it. They are the opposite version of liberal talk show opinion host Rachel Maddow. Don't have any problem with opinion talk shows from right or left.....as long as they clearly identify themselves as opinion shows.

On the other hand Don Lemon, Cuomo, Anderson Cooper all claim to be "news anchors". In reality those three do Rachel Maddow type opinion shows.....and opposite version of Sean, Laura, and Tucker.
 
PA Boilermakers said:
"I'm letting him figure out on his own"... okay. And I'm looking forward to watching Maddow, Cuomo and Lemon tonight.
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Hey man, you know nothing about how I raise my children so you should probably let this one go.
One of his majors is history and that includes civics and government. He has his own ideas and I support him no matter what his political beliefs are. I enjoy debating with him........he's learned he has to truly understand why he takes the positions he does and be able to back them up. Hes come a long way and I'm proud of him.

The point of the post was..........I don't believe Trump or anybody that blindly folloiws his lead on the back to school issue has truly thought this through.

What I realized when I saw him get upset at the prospect of bringing home the virus..........if he were to bring it home and God forbid his mother or I contracted Covid and died........he could very well BLAME HIMSELF for the rest of his life. I can't think of many things as horrifying as that as a parent.

I don't think Trump has even gotten near that possibility in whatever thought process he's using with this plan. Have you? Do you want to put........even the chance........of that burden on your child?
 
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BuilderBob6 said:
Hey man, you know nothing about how I raise my children so you should probably let this one go.
One of his majors is history and that includes civics and government. He has his own ideas and I support him no matter what his political beliefs are. I enjoy debating with him........he's learned he has to truly understand why he takes the positions he does and be able to back them up. Hes come a long way and I'm proud of him.

The point of the post was..........I don't believe Trump or anybody that blindly folloiws his lead on the back to school issue has truly thought this through.

What I realized when I saw him get upset at the prospect of bringing home the virus..........if he were to bring it home and God forbid his mother or I contracted Covid and died........he could very well BLAME HIMSELF for the rest of his life. I can't think of many things as horrifying as that as a parent.

I don't think Trump has even gotten near that possibility in whatever thought process he's using with this plan. Have you? Do you want to put........even the chance........of that burden on your child?
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Your son sounds like a great kid.

When you look at the science kids have been huge spreaders of influenza to adults forever. So indirectly that would've led to deaths every year. But, I don't think that's a burden we should ever put on kids, even if that happened. Schools administrators over the years have decided that isn't a reason to close schools during flu season.

The science so far shows child to adult Covid spread is not common. Yes Covid is more dangerous than influenza for certain age groups (older), but there may not be a big difference in risk level of child to adult (fatality).....once you adjust for high risk of kids spreading influenza to adults vs low risk of Covid 19 spread from child to adults.

Imo the individual family should be the decision maker. For those families that think going to school is too big of a risk....do remote learning. You could pair them up with teachers that are higher risk of Covid 19....and they could teach from home.
 
BoilerBF said:
Your son sounds like a great kid.

When you look at the science kids have been huge spreaders of influenza to adults forever. So indirectly that would've led to deaths every year. But, I don't think that's a burden we should ever put on kids, even if that happened. Schools administrators over the years have decided that isn't a reason to close schools during flu season.

The science so far shows child to adult Covid spread is not common. Yes Covid is more dangerous than influenza for certain age groups (older), but there may not be a big difference in risk level of child to adult (fatality).....once you adjust for high risk of kids spreading influenza to adults vs low risk of Covid 19 spread from child to adults.

Imo the individual family should be the decision maker. For those families that think going to school is too big of a risk....do remote learning. You could pair them up with teachers that are higher risk of Covid 19....and they could teach from home.
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Thank you. He's working on it.

I just don't agree with the flu comparisons........not while we still seem to know so little about Covid and there's no vaccine. The flu changes every year and people still die but we are so much farther ahead with it than Covid.

I dont think there's near enough evidence to this point to draw many conclusions about child to adult transmission. Israel is having trouble right now with cases jumping after opening their schools.

Covid has fooled a lot of people so far, from blue states to red states. We have to stop underestimating it imo.
 
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BuilderBob6 said:
Hey man, you know nothing about how I raise my children so you should probably let this one go.
One of his majors is history and that includes civics and government. He has his own ideas and I support him no matter what his political beliefs are. I enjoy debating with him........he's learned he has to truly understand why he takes the positions he does and be able to back them up. Hes come a long way and I'm proud of him.

The point of the post was..........I don't believe Trump or anybody that blindly folloiws his lead on the back to school issue has truly thought this through.

What I realized when I saw him get upset at the prospect of bringing home the virus..........if he were to bring it home and God forbid his mother or I contracted Covid and died........he could very well BLAME HIMSELF for the rest of his life. I can't think of many things as horrifying as that as a parent.

I don't think Trump has even gotten near that possibility in whatever thought process he's using with this plan. Have you? Do you want to put........even the chance........of that burden on your child?
Click to expand...
I've been very consistent with saying that Trump shouldn't be saying anything regarding kids going back to school other than that it's a decision that needs to be made at the local/state level. The Department of Education at the federal level has never improved education in this country in the 40 years that it's been around.
 
PA Boilermakers said:
Do you have the same data with numbers of deaths?
Click to expand...

Sadly, I do not - some, but didn't keep track of a top 20 over time for deaths. From day one, I said my premise was from a "process control" standpoint as process control, supply mgmt, proj. mgmt was my areas of expertise.

So I track cases and what is or is not being done to contain the outbreak. THAT should be the focus. With containment, EVERYTHING else goes away.

You do realize that right?

It's kind of like hearing someone arguing that things are going well in a war, because deaths are lowering. The ISSUE is stopping the damn WAR and getting our economy back and no matter what people say about deaths, the economy WILL NOT come back until the CASES go down.

PS EVEN the total deaths per state story is NOT complete yet. I seem to remember others telling me that states like Florida, Texas, Georgia had far superior efforts and would never look like Michigan or New York - when I said they might. Guess what? By August, I think Florida and Texas will overtake New York in total cases and then we will see how much their death totals jump. They simply got the benefit of not having the virus first, which SHOULD have allowed them to prepare and utilize better treatments which were developed in the early phases.

However, . . it currently looks like some of those southern states were too busy taking victory laps & patting themselves on their backs instead of preparing for what was inevitably coming to their states.
 
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PurdueFan1 said:
You’re saying that Dems want things shut down for the sake of shutting down and to derail Trump. That is blatantly false and that’s the issue I have with your approach.

I agree there isn’t a one size fits all approach, but the feds saying “everyone needs to go back” is somehow better? Threatening to withhold funding is somehow better ?

Some areas won’t have a choice but to close because the virus is out of control. Others can probably safely do a phased approach.

And on a personal note: my sister in law just tested positive this morning for the virus. She most likely contracted it from a family member who flew in from Arizona at her father’s funeral a week and a half ago. So now my sister in law is in isolation from her husband and kids for the next week. She is feeling okay for the most part but the risk to the rest of her family is there but they aren’t able to get tested unless they develop any symptoms. So now they are doing contract tracing with everyone who went to the funeral. What I’m saying is you can take your comments about living in fear etc and shove them so far up your ass that they fall out of your mouth
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that - Hope your entire family stays safe !
 
Bethboilerfan said:
One thing COVID-19 has revealed is the ignorance of people in the US. I can’t figure out if it’s a failure of education or stupidity. And with democracy the dumbest people share their knowledge or lack of knowledge without a moment’s thought.
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PurdueFan1 notifies us all of his lack of knowledge many times everyday
 
Bethboilerfan said:
One thing COVID-19 has revealed is the ignorance of people in the US. I can’t figure out if it’s a failure of education or stupidity. And with democracy the dumbest people share their knowledge or lack of knowledge without a moment’s thought.
Click to expand...
I bet you that some of these ne’er do wells are flat earthers and believe that the NASA lunar landings were a hoax.
 
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