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NCAA First Round: Purdue vs. Cal State-Fullerton: Predictions & Game-Thread

JohnnyDoeBoiler

JohnnyDoeBoiler

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Sep 23, 2013
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I know it is essentially a full 48 hour early BUT figured it wouldn't hurt to start this one early to get the juices flowing and the conversation headed in the right direction!

Teams by the Rankings:
Cal State-Fullerton:
RPI: 131st
BPI: 182nd
Pomeroy: 153rd
AP: Not Ranked
Coaches: Not Ranked

Purdue:
RPI: 9th
BPI: 4th
Pomeroy: 5th
AP: 11th
Coaches: 11th

ESPN's BPI places Purdue as a 98.3% favorite
Vegas currently has the spread at 20.5 for Purdue

Teams by the Stats:
Cal State-Fullerton:
Scoring Offense: 73.2 (181st)
Scoring Defense: 70.0 (101st)
2PT %: 52.4% (92nd)
3PT %: 33.8% (238th)
FT%: 73.4% (100th)
Total Rebounds: 35.13 (184th)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.87 (278th)
Defensive Rebounds: 26.26 (100th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.1 (176th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (133rd)

Purdue:
Scoring Offense: 81.1 (25th)
Scoring Defense: 65.6 (26th)
2PT %: 54.9% (35th)
3PT %: 42% (2nd)
FT%: 74.3% (67th)
Total Rebounds: 35.03 (192nd)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.44 (294th)
Defensive Rebounds: 26.59 (76th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 123.3 (2nd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.6 (31st)

Game Prediction:
Given the way Purdue's senior leadership has talked about the time off allowing them to refocus and the importance of taking the tourney one game at a time, I am cautiously optimistic about this opening weekend of the NCAA Tourney. This is a group that, in large part, got to take in a Sweet 16 run last season and got to see the kind of effort, focus, and intensity is needed to make a sustain run to an Elite 8 and hopefully a Final Four. I have not typically seen a team, no matter the seed, struggle in their first game to a win and then continue on a run in to the tourney to their expectations. Give Purdue has shown an ability to grow and the fact that Purdue has been given a gift to get actual PRACTICE in and not game prep since the end of the BTT, I believe Purdue comes out to show the Boilers we all know are back.

Purdue: 86
Cal-State: 68
 
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Purdue up 25 with a few minutes left. Bench comes in and CSF hits a late three to cut the lead to 20. Bad beat for those giving the 20.5 points.
 
Just don't get caught shaving the points on us like they did 40 years ago. Anyone can get hot near the end and steal a win if the margin is too close.

BTW - Most know of us for our baseball championships and the coach that won three for us passed away today. God Speed Augie Garrido!
 
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PU by 10. We are going to get their best shot but we have too many weapons and pull away at the end.

I also want to play Arkansas next just to shut Seth Davis up.
 
I see is being a little like Michigan - maybe a little on the rusty side to start. Think by time we get to the under 12 timeout we will have things figured out and start pushing our lead.

Edwards and Edwards go for 50

Purdue: 85
Cal Fullerton:60
 
ChoiceBeef said:
I see is being a little like Michigan - maybe a little on the rusty side to start. Think by time we get to the under 12 timeout we will have things figured out and start pushing our lead.

Edwards and Edwards go for 50

Purdue: 85
Cal Fullerton:60
Click to expand...
If that's the case, the field better watch out moving forward.
 
JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
If that's the case, the field better watch out moving forward.
Click to expand...
Vince has been Mr March - now he has a side kick ready to go to war with him.

I think a game like this will be good for him to test his ankle and put up some points driving to the lane.
 
I am stuck at work today, so I won’t be able to watch the game. I am just going to be able to keep up with the score by phone updates. Going to miss posting with everyone during the game. Here is to a Purdue victory today! Boiler Up!!
 
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JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
I know it is essentially a full 48 hour early BUT figured it wouldn't hurt to start this one early to get the juices flowing and the conversation headed in the right direction!

Teams by the Rankings:
Cal State-Fullerton:
RPI: 131st
BPI: 182nd
Pomeroy: 153rd
AP: Not Ranked
Coaches: Not Ranked

Purdue:
RPI: 9th
BPI: 4th
Pomeroy: 5th
AP: 11th
Coaches: 11th

ESPN's BPI places Purdue as a 98.3% favorite
Vegas currently has the spread at 20.5 for Purdue

Teams by the Stats:
Cal State-Fullerton:
Scoring Offense: 73.2 (181st)
Scoring Defense: 70.0 (101st)
2PT %: 52.4% (92nd)
3PT %: 33.8% (238th)
FT%: 73.4% (100th)
Total Rebounds: 35.13 (184th)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.87 (278th)
Defensive Rebounds: 26.26 (100th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.1 (176th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (133rd)

Purdue:
Scoring Offense: 81.1 (25th)
Scoring Defense: 65.6 (26th)
2PT %: 54.9% (35th)
3PT %: 42% (2nd)
FT%: 74.3% (67th)
Total Rebounds: 35.03 (192nd)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.44 (294th)
Defensive Rebounds: 26.59 (76th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 123.3 (2nd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.6 (31st)

Game Prediction:
Given the way Purdue's senior leadership has talked about the time off allowing them to refocus and the importance of taking the tourney one game at a time, I am cautiously optimistic about this opening weekend of the NCAA Tourney. This is a group that, in large part, got to take in a Sweet 16 run last season and got to see the kind of effort, focus, and intensity is needed to make a sustain run to an Elite 8 and hopefully a Final Four. I have not typically seen a team, no matter the seed, struggle in their first game to a win and then continue on a run in to the tourney to their expectations. Give Purdue has shown an ability to grow and the fact that Purdue has been given a gift to get actual PRACTICE in and not game prep since the end of the BTT, I believe Purdue comes out to show the Boilers we all know are back.

Purdue: 86
Cal-State: 68
Click to expand...

The only part I disagree with us the needing to win comfortably. Just survive and advance in this tourney. Most games are close for the majority.

Boiler up!
 
delish1 said:
The only part I disagree with us the needing to win comfortably. Just survive and advance in this tourney. Most games are close for the majority.

Boiler up!
Click to expand...
100% agree with you and I think this team is particularly built both from a physical and mental aspect to do just that (the largest loss being against UM in the BTT). Purdue has the ability to keep a game close when they aren't playing well with Haas inside...something nearly every team doesn't have in college. The fact Purdue can just start dumping the ball down to Haas to extend a game more and more until their shots start falling is a fact about this team that is being overlooked, IMO.
 
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JohnnyDoeBoiler said:
I know it is essentially a full 48 hour early BUT figured it wouldn't hurt to start this one early to get the juices flowing and the conversation headed in the right direction!

Teams by the Rankings:
Cal State-Fullerton:
RPI: 131st
BPI: 182nd
Pomeroy: 153rd
AP: Not Ranked
Coaches: Not Ranked

Purdue:
RPI: 9th
BPI: 4th
Pomeroy: 5th
AP: 11th
Coaches: 11th

ESPN's BPI places Purdue as a 98.3% favorite
Vegas currently has the spread at 20.5 for Purdue

Teams by the Stats:
Cal State-Fullerton:
Scoring Offense: 73.2 (181st)
Scoring Defense: 70.0 (101st)
2PT %: 52.4% (92nd)
3PT %: 33.8% (238th)
FT%: 73.4% (100th)
Total Rebounds: 35.13 (184th)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.87 (278th)
Defensive Rebounds: 26.26 (100th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 105.1 (176th)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (133rd)

Purdue:
Scoring Offense: 81.1 (25th)
Scoring Defense: 65.6 (26th)
2PT %: 54.9% (35th)
3PT %: 42% (2nd)
FT%: 74.3% (67th)
Total Rebounds: 35.03 (192nd)
Offensive Rebounds: 8.44 (294th)
Defensive Rebounds: 26.59 (76th)
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency: 123.3 (2nd)
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency: 96.6 (31st)

Game Prediction:
Given the way Purdue's senior leadership has talked about the time off allowing them to refocus and the importance of taking the tourney one game at a time, I am cautiously optimistic about this opening weekend of the NCAA Tourney. This is a group that, in large part, got to take in a Sweet 16 run last season and got to see the kind of effort, focus, and intensity is needed to make a sustain run to an Elite 8 and hopefully a Final Four. I have not typically seen a team, no matter the seed, struggle in their first game to a win and then continue on a run in to the tourney to their expectations. Give Purdue has shown an ability to grow and the fact that Purdue has been given a gift to get actual PRACTICE in and not game prep since the end of the BTT, I believe Purdue comes out to show the Boilers we all know are back.

Purdue: 86
Cal-State: 68
Click to expand...
Hopefully like the last time we were a #2 and we beat the Mighty Blue Hens by 39.
 
Roxko said:
Just don't get caught shaving the points on us like they did 40 years ago. Anyone can get hot near the end and steal a win if the margin is too close.

BTW - Most know of us for our baseball championships and the coach that won three for us passed away today. God Speed Augie Garrido!
Click to expand...

Sorry to hear that, Roxko.

For the game: Purdue might come out with some rust (like OSU and Michigan). I expect a reasonably close game in the first half--say both teams somewhere in the 30s at halftime. But, I see Purdue pulling away in the second half for a 75-64 win.

Purdue has to contain Allman and Ahmad and not allow somebody else to go nuts for 20+. Our games against Rutgers showed how a couple guys getting hot can keep a team in the game.

Purdue also has to dominate the boards. I can't remember the last time we out-rebounded a good team, but Purdue is much bigger than Fullerton and has to want it more.
 
TX4GB said:
Purdue fans at work today
View embedded media
Click to expand...

Hopefully, none of this.....

giphy.gif
 
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Must-skip: With a skilled 7-foot center who can score over either shoulder, a point guard who can create off the dribble and an array of shooters around them, Purdue is one of the more difficult teams in the country to defend. The Boilermakers should pick apart a Cal State Fullerton team that is KenPom’s fourth-lowest rated team in the field and was fortunate to avoid the First Four, let alone receive a No. 15 seed. Two of Purdue’s only weaknesses are defending ball screens and surrendering second-chance points. The Titans aren’t well equipped to hurt Purdue in either area.

https://sports.yahoo.com/ncaa-tournament-viewing-guide-watch-skip-friday-071407893.html
 
More from NCAA.com:

Key stats
  • Purdue is 37-29 all-time in the NCAA Tournament but has lost in the first round twice since 2015 after winning its previous 14 opening games.
  • The Boilermakers are one of eight teams to have a top-five seed in each of the last three years.
  • Five of Purdue’s six losses this season were by five points or less.
  • The Boilermakers have allowed more than 75 points three times in their last 26 games.
  • Purdue forward Vincent Edwards, who is averaging 14.5 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game, has seven double-doubles but none in the last 15 outings.
  • Cal State Fullerton is 2-2 all-time in the NCAA Tournament.
  • Titans forward Jackson Rowe is averaging 12.2 points and a team-best 6.8 rebounds per game.
  • Cal State Fullerton is shooting just 33.8 percent from beyond the arc.
 
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