Michigan is beatable
- Thread starter TheBoris
- Start date
Three counterpoints to both sides of this thread:
1. Purdue claims Michigan's offense has been terrible in all of its games. However that one post that pointed out the rankings of both teams showed Michigan's offense was only 5 rankings lower than Purdue. So you could make the claim our offenses are equal!
2. Michigan's fans claim Purdue's receivers are slow and won't get open and Purdue doesn't have a home run threat! Purdue has two home run threats in Holmes and Vico. They just haven't been incorporated into our offense yet! If Purdue is to win, Vico and Holmes have to step up and contribute! This may be the mystery play factor we haven't seen!
3. Trick plays usually only work once. I don't believe we're going to see many used. Somebody talked that Purdue is going to throw out everything it has including Cary Quad. I doubt it. Why? We had 3 chances to come back against Louisville and all three drives contained nothing different than what we previously used. I kind of expected a Hail Mary or something better than those last 4 plays Purdue ran especially our last play!
if Purdue loses by 10-15 points, to most people it would be considered a competitive game and moral victory! Brohm could totally change gears and try to have a low scoring game in order to keep the score close.
Lastly, I have noticed in all three games Purdue's coaching staffs make a lot of adjustments to fix first half errors!
I still expect Michigan to win! However, I think Purdue may win over several elite recruits watching the game! And my prediction record stands at 95% wrong! I predicted the Packers over the Falcons and Missouri last week!
1. Purdue claims Michigan's offense has been terrible in all of its games. However that one post that pointed out the rankings of both teams showed Michigan's offense was only 5 rankings lower than Purdue. So you could make the claim our offenses are equal!
2. Michigan's fans claim Purdue's receivers are slow and won't get open and Purdue doesn't have a home run threat! Purdue has two home run threats in Holmes and Vico. They just haven't been incorporated into our offense yet! If Purdue is to win, Vico and Holmes have to step up and contribute! This may be the mystery play factor we haven't seen!
3. Trick plays usually only work once. I don't believe we're going to see many used. Somebody talked that Purdue is going to throw out everything it has including Cary Quad. I doubt it. Why? We had 3 chances to come back against Louisville and all three drives contained nothing different than what we previously used. I kind of expected a Hail Mary or something better than those last 4 plays Purdue ran especially our last play!
if Purdue loses by 10-15 points, to most people it would be considered a competitive game and moral victory! Brohm could totally change gears and try to have a low scoring game in order to keep the score close.
Lastly, I have noticed in all three games Purdue's coaching staffs make a lot of adjustments to fix first half errors!
I still expect Michigan to win! However, I think Purdue may win over several elite recruits watching the game! And my prediction record stands at 95% wrong! I predicted the Packers over the Falcons and Missouri last week!
1. You don't really believe that, do you? Did you actually watch any of Michigan's games? Their offense looked bad against Cinci and AF. The reason Purdue's stats are skewed down (460 yards/game) is because we only had 356 yards of offense vs. Louisville and Brohm took his foot off the gas last week vs. Mizzou after gaining 370 yards in the first half.
2. It's Zico, not Vico.
3. It was Purdue's first game with Brohm and Blough wasn't playing due to the bad picks. Lots has changed since then, no? Brohm has a playbook that's nearly a foot thick. The offensive staff gives the team 10 new plays for every game, including new trick plays. We've probably seen no more than 15-20% of Brohm's offense so far!
Purdue will not lose by 10-15 points. Brohm and his staff don't believe in moral victories. We're going to beat Michigan in a close game and maybe some of the Knuckleheads will stop doubting what's obvious to most of us now.
No, it is Zico. you just haven't seen him yet. he's our secret weapon !!!! he's been hiding in the weight room.
as for #1, Michigan played against Florida. I believe Florida's defense may have affected Michigan's offense. Florida is a pretty decent team. but more to my point.. A lot of the posts above are using stats and rankings to base their thoughts. So, if that's all you're going to use, then the case could be made that Michigan's offense is as good as Purdue's is. or you could say Purdue's offense isn't as good as you say it is. People watching the games would say and know differently. but stats wise, if that's all you use, they are about the same.
And if you take a look at opponents, Michigan played three teams who usually find their way into a bowl game. Missouri looked bad last year, and they just fired their defensive coordinator. I would expect their defense to be in a disarray . I was surprised their offense was so bad. We all know Louisville could have scored a lot more points against us if they hadn't made all those opening day mistakes. Purdue dodged a couple of bullets. Are you going to claim Purdue's defense forced Louisville to make those mistakes?
if we lose by 10 but are able to flip a certain WR and get a commitment from a certain elite defensive player, that's more than just a moral victory! and what makes you believe brohm doesn't like moral victories?
if there is one second left, and the ball is on the 4 yard line, and we're down by 3, would you go for the FG and the tie (moral victory ) and push it into overtime? or would you try one last play to get it into the end zone for the win? a lot of coaches would pass up the FG and go for the win only to end up losing.
The logic here is so disjointed I don't know where to start.
Purdue's offense is better now than it was against Louisville and will only improve as the season wears on. Any objective assessment of Michigan's offense would say that they have not been performing well. Hell, even Michigan's coaching staff and their media followers have said as such, especially after their last two games. They have been good running the ball, but their passing game has been poor by Harbaugh's standards and especially compared to last season.
Florida has a FR QB and they struggle to score points. That's a fact. They are a hail Mary pass away from being 1-2 and considered one of the nation's biggest disappointments. Their fanbase wants to fire their coach.
Cinci is so good they fired their coach after last season and some of D-Haze's staff now coaches for them.
Mizzou looked bad because Nick Holt's scheme made them look bad. He forced them to pass to the outside constantly. And we defended them well. We shut down their run game and made them one-dimensional.
Yes, Purdue forced Louisville's fumbles by excellent plays and good schemes around the goalline.
WTF does flipping Moore and getting GK have to do with moral victories? Nothing.
Your logic gets even faultier at the end. If we are playing at home and have a chance to tie the game, it's not a moral victory. It means the game goes to OT and we have a chance to win in OT. Brohm might go for it. If he loses, it's a loss, not a moral victory.
Michigan 42 Purdue 13. Don Brown has allowed 35 points to exactly 0 teams in his last 46 games coached. Purdue scoring 35 would be absolutely shocking.
The way you talk, Purdue should be the #1 ranked team in the nation and should blow out Michigan by 55 points. Anytime somebody says something negative about Purdue, you become defensive. And if they point out anything positive about Michigan, you dismiss it. Florida might not be at their previous standards, and their coach may be on the hot seat, but they are still a good team. Cincy may have a new coach, but they are not a pushover, and they have some talent. Air Force is always a well disciplined team. On the other hand, Ohio is a good team. Louisville is a good team. And Missouri is not as good as previously thought. Purdue played Missouri without their defensive coordinator. You don't believe that had anything to do with the effort Missouri put forth? Rather than Brohm easing off the gas petal in the second half, is it possible that Missouri actually made some adjustments?
I read your other posts made, and every time somebody says something about why we might lose, you're all over them like a momma bear. Purdue is playing a top 10 team. Michigan has a lot of talent and a good coach. Why not give them some credit and respect? You don't think they know they haven't lived up to expectations and want to prove who is the better team? Louisville could have scored before the half against Purdue, and didn't. Purdue didn't stop that from happening, it was poor time management and play calling on Louisville's part. They could have at least kicked a FG, but didn't attempt one.
I believe you give Purdue way too much credit. You're excited about Purdue's success, and you believe they'll win. You thought the same last year.
Moore is already committed to Texas. A good showing, even a loss may flip him. GK is one of the first elite athletes to have shown real interest in Purdue. If Brohm is able to sign them, as a result of this game, that is a win. Michigan is Purdue's toughest opponent of the year, yet you expect Purdue to win. And you call my post unrealistic? And disjointed? Where were you when people were making projections for Purdue? The highest projection I saw was 7-5! If we're going to have 5 losses, logic would say this is going to be one of them.
I hope Purdue wins, but I also saw the Louisville and Ohio games. Purdue is not as great as you believe them to be. I respect your positive passion. But I also believe Michigan might also be a litter better than they have shown as well.
The title of this thread is Michigan is beatable, yet they are 3-0 for a reason.
Yeah, Michigan is definitely beatable. A ten point spread means Purdue has about a 23% puncher's chance to win. Should be a good game.
http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-probability-percentage-point-spread-nfl-nba/
I replied to a post somewhere concerning basketball and football. In basketball there are many scoring plays and so the composite has a huge effect. IN football, there are so few scoring plays that an anomaly, a slip, one play of luck can be the difference. There were many games where Purdue with Tiller loss the stats line, but won the game. Does THIS play into Brohms's thoughts overall?
""It's almost funny," Brohm said. "The more creative we got and the more things we did that we hadn't done before, every single one of them worked. So I'm like, 'We need to do this more. Let's think outside the box. Let's have a little fun. Let's not do things because that's the way normal football is.'"
It just takes a "few" plays in football to be a difference maker many times...
It's possible you may be underestimating the defense Purdue is about to face.
Don Brown hadn't seen Air Force's offense in person before either and held them to their lowest output since 2012.
I know the UM defensive coaches aren't dummies. The question is with less than a week to prepare, will the players be adequately prepared to read and react correctly to everything that is thrown at them on Saturday? Brohm's offensive involves a lot of deception and exploitation. Remember, it is not your DC who will be on the field but a bunch of 19 and 20 year olds who just spent a week focused on stopping the triple option. I believe the Purdue short and intermediate passing game will find some success. For every press there will be a rub route. For every blitz there will be a well timed screen. All it takes is one missed assignment and there's a big play. Should be a fun one.
Man, you need to pump the brakes or you're in for a massive buzzkill by the 3rd quarter tomorrow. We're talking about a team that has one 1 conference game in each of the last three years. I get it, new coach, new attitude, excitement, etc.
The Michigan defense is legit and will make life absolutely miserable for Purdue's offense.
Now, will Michigan's offense manage more than 20 points? We'll see. They've stunk thus far.
The difference is that it doesn't really matter if you have seen Brohm's offense.
this game reminds me of when Duke came into Mackey w/ Skeletor (Singler) and everyone was stoked and we came out tight. I think right now, the foundation is in place but we don't have the horses yet.
You're the king of non sequiturs and hyperbolic statements.. I never said Purdue was the #1 team in nation or would beat Michigan by 55 points.
I do respect Michigan, their HC, their players, and their DC. Yet, unlike some ninnies on this board, I can actually see ways Purdue can beat Michigan, because Michigan is not playing well right now on offense. Just because Purdue has been bad for 8 seasons, doesn't mean they will be bad this season, with this coaching staff and these players. You act like you're "keeping it real" but you show a defeatist attitude. The Killer Bs certainly don't subscribe to your line of thinking.
Purdue will need to play well to win, but the team has improved week-by-week so far, and I expect to see more improvement this week.
You haven't been paying attention. I said early on that Purdue would be a bowl team this year and will go 7-5 or 8-4. Now on bowl projections I see Purdue being slated for the Outback Bowl on January 1st. That means these "experts" at ESPN see Purdue going 8-4 too. The BIG West doesn't look as daunting as it did prior to the season, does it?
I'll go 34-21. Purdue is getting better. Last year Michigan would have won by 40+.
very easily could be the final story...but in this game a break...lucky or not could be the difference. No question Michigan has more talent...no question Michigan is well coached and no question would even up favor money to Michigan. Still, the Boilers know in this crazy game..anything is possible even if not probable
I can see Purdue scoring 30+ tomorrow as Brohm pulls out all the stops to try and get a signature win early in his Purdue career.
It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't see a lot of things we haven't in the first half only to get it changed up again in the second. Purdue 35 UM 28.
It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't see a lot of things we haven't in the first half only to get it changed up again in the second. Purdue 35 UM 28.
Not trying to be a jerk or come to your board with a "we're Michigan and you peasants can't possible beat us" attitude, but I think you are going to be very surprised and disappointed when you see what happens when the Michigan defense goes up against Purdue's offense. Brohm is an excellent, very creative coach and I expect he will have things really humming when brings in a higher caliber of athlete, which I believe he will do. But right now, I just don't think Purdue has the athletes to compete. Michigan's defense isn't going to look anything like Missouri's or Louisville's, nor will it look like any of the Rich Rodriguez defenses Purdue has had success against in the past. They are big, very fast and fundamentally sound. I don't think it is realistic to think you are going to score 35 points against this defense.
And, despite all the talk about Michigan's underwhelming offense, we have actually run the ball very effectively this year, and when we have had problems in the passing game it has been primarily due to opponents putting pressure on Speight (which he often handles poorly). Purdue is last in the nation in sacks and QB pressures, so you guys don't seem especially well suited to take advantage of our primary vulnerability.
Bottom line, I don't see this as a game where "pulling out all the stops" is going to matter. If you can't protect the QB - which I don't think you will be able to do - you can't execute any of those sorts of plays. It's great that Purdue appears to be on the rise, but I think you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you think you have already arrived and are ready to win this kind of game.
All the defensive starters are in their 2nd year in his system and communication breakdowns are minimal. Will somebody bust a coverage at some point? Probably. It just won't happen very often. And even when it does, a ferocious pass rush tends to paper over coverage issues when the QB doesn't have time to find them.
I also kinda hope Purdue tries lots of screens because Michigan tends to kill them for the most part with a fast front 7 that is quick to recognize the screen and DL that are adept at tracking out and making the tackle in space if needed.
I don't think you were being a jerk at all. I think most people would agree with you. Purdue fans have seen such a dramatic change over what we thought were possible this early, that optimism is a natural side effect. I don't think anyone can discount the talent level differences. Purdue's run D has been much better than expected and will surely get a big test. Michigan's D will probably get tested in an unconventional way as well..."IF" the Purdue QB has some time and "IF" there is some success running the ball.
The money even up is on Michigan, but the Purdue people have seen a team exceed hugely over the most optimistic thoughts before the season...playing in homecoming with a group of people that are gaining confidence daily and hungry as can be due to the previous years. The mental aspect plays a lot in sports and "IF" Michigan were to not take this serious...Purdue may wake them up in a hurry. I look for a good game...better than most expect, but I know Michigan is loaded with talent and the coaching staff are not idiots at Michigan either.
I look forward to the game, will be there and already have my timer set to record.
I know what you mean . . . it *is* great when you've been down for a while and then start to rise back up. Michigan fans definitely know what that is like after our years in the wilderness with Rich Rod and Hoke. It is great to have football be fun again. You guys were great (and a lot of fun to watch) in the Tiller era, and all signs point to getting back to that same level again soon.
And I agree - I think there would be risk to Michigan (or anyone) who doesn't take this Purdue team seriously and show up ready to play. I think the best thing that could have happened to us is Purdue's unexpectedly hot start and all the buzz it generated. With all the hype and "upset special" predictions this week, I can't see any way Michigan overlooks Purdue tomorrow.
Hope for a clean, injury-free game tomorrow and best of luck the rest of the way!
There is definitely a lot of kool aid drinking here lately. Our defensive starters are good, but all it takes is a couple of consecutive short drive/3 and outs from the offense and all of a sudden people will be talking about how they can't cover or tackle anyone because we lack the depth to effectively replace the starters. I do expect Brohm to score a couple times, but this has all the makings of the 2007 OSU game where we couldn't move the ball effectively on the offense and our defense started to get run over because they were on the field all game long.
Understandable. Our fans were drunk on purple stuff after the Florida game. We have since sobered up a tad.
What your saying is a backhanded compliment. On paper MI should beat Purdue due to athletes alone and I'll give you that. What nobody can measure is the will to win, never give up attitude, the chemistry and love they have for coaches and players alike. When you have that, you can beat anyone. Just ask the any former players of a team like N.C. State 1983 basketball or other teams throughout the years. Underdogs do fight hard and can win.
I stand firm Purdue 35 MI 24. Coach Brohm has them believing and you say it sets the fans up for disappointment. I say no way in hell, I've seen 4 years or longer of disappointment. Should we come up yet be competitive till the final horn, I'll feel just fine. Michigan has as much if not more to lose than we do. MI might be tight and we'll find out tomorrow.
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We will indeed find out tomorrow. Glad football is fun again in West Lafayette. Makes fall so much better!
Again, best wishes for a clean game, no injuries, and great luck the rest of the way in the West.
Both teams have that. What you can't measure is that sometimes teams just play great games and sometimes they play poor games. The better team doesn't win every single game. College kids have good and bad days. Get a few guys having a bad day and a few lucky bounces and the outcome of games can change quickly.
I think everybody agrees Purdue has a chance to win tomorrow. As a Michigan fan, I think if Michigan plays well they will win. Whether or they will play well is a bit more questionable.
I think Michigan has an offensive scheme and QB problem that will not be solved anytime soon. Harbaugh is a very conservative playcaller and his scheme leads to inherently tight games. Add to that the fact that Wilton Speight has also not been playing particularly well, and it has to be a cause for serious concern for UM's staff and fans. The lack of offensive firepower passing, despite having some stud WRs and good TEs, is puzzling.
Michigan has run the ball very well so far, but Ty Issac is dinged up. Evans seems to have gone into a SO slump. Higdon runs hard. Michigan will have a hard time trying to win a ground and pound game vs. Purdue as our run defense is much better and sound under DC Nick Holt. He coached under Pete Carroll at USC as DC when they had their excellent teams.
That's an interesting observation considering they have had so many blowout wins during his tenure. I don't think they have any scheme problem, what they have had is an execution problem. Although some of that is likely from being one of the youngest teams in the country. While Harbaugh may run a pro style offense, it's got a lot of interesting tweaks that make it far more aggressive than you'd otherwise think.
Greetings Purdue fans. I think it is great that the Big10 has another good coach. I commend Purdue fans in hoping for a win. The greatest thing about college football is the upset. All of us recall them. As a Michigan fan I still recall listening to the radio in disbelief when Purdue beat a #1 ranked UM. That all said this will be an unlikely situation and I predict UM by 20 for the following reasons.
UM is a defense first team. A team like Louisville is more prone to an upset. Football is set up so that you only have about 12 possessions. If some crazy things happen to thwart a great offense they can get behind the eight ball. A great defense keeps a great team in every game. The combination of the Dline and Purdue's terrible Oline means that any given QB will have .00234 seconds before he has to get rid of the ball.
The second reason is also the defense. UM is running a 3-3-5 stack. Its strength is to defend spreads. It does this two ways. The first is UM does not tip its hand with personal or formation. All of the safeties and corners interchange. The power of the college spread has always been the offense forces the defense to react. You motion people to figure out the coverage and then call the play that simplifies down to a few keys. The 3-3-5 brings the initiative back to the defense. Is it zone or man press? Who is blitzing and where? The 3-3-5 stack has weakness's. I think a team with a superior Oline or a power run can attack it. Likewise a mature run & shoot or air raid could do damage. Purdue does not have this one year into the new program. UM will use six men in the box and dare Purdue to run. On passing UM will send the 3 down linemen and 1-2 blitzers that will be different each time. The secondary will play press and hope the QB's don't see the receiver that does break free long. The Purdue play book may be a kitchen sink of everything. However, the base defense will be able to handle it and give nothing away prior to the snap. Worse the kitchen sink is going to run into the monkey wrench because the Dcoordinator has the initiative.
A lot of folks point to the AF game. People have to remember the military academies are weird and almost impossible to prepare for. The UM defense held AF to their worse offensive performance since 2012. If Purdue had sound lines and a good special teams I would think there is a chance. But your FG kickers have not done well.
The last reason why I think UM will win going away is what makes Speight uncomfortable cannot be done by Purdue. Purdue fans are right to point out Speight has regressed this year. This is mostly to Speight(like most QB's) having issues when he is made uncomfortable. The Purdue pass rush is not a strength. In fact it is kind of lame. Purdue in my opinion will not have the scheme or personal to rattle him. Speight will go back to his base mechanics and make some plays. I expect a conservative game plan because turnovers will make an upset possible. UM has the superior special teams. Your punter tends to out kick the coverage, and UM has a FG kicker who has nailed multiple long FG's including a 55+. Even if the offense spins its wheels there will be so much pressure, Purdue will wear out. Compounding this is you have a number of players hurt. UM's attrition so far is at their deepest positions WR, and RB.
If Brohm can turn Purdue around on such short notice, he is not long for Purdue and I would expect him to end up at Notre Dame. I hate boring games and applaud another Big10 school being a threat. It is just not going to be this year. If it does happen, then that is why we all love college football.
UM is a defense first team. A team like Louisville is more prone to an upset. Football is set up so that you only have about 12 possessions. If some crazy things happen to thwart a great offense they can get behind the eight ball. A great defense keeps a great team in every game. The combination of the Dline and Purdue's terrible Oline means that any given QB will have .00234 seconds before he has to get rid of the ball.
The second reason is also the defense. UM is running a 3-3-5 stack. Its strength is to defend spreads. It does this two ways. The first is UM does not tip its hand with personal or formation. All of the safeties and corners interchange. The power of the college spread has always been the offense forces the defense to react. You motion people to figure out the coverage and then call the play that simplifies down to a few keys. The 3-3-5 brings the initiative back to the defense. Is it zone or man press? Who is blitzing and where? The 3-3-5 stack has weakness's. I think a team with a superior Oline or a power run can attack it. Likewise a mature run & shoot or air raid could do damage. Purdue does not have this one year into the new program. UM will use six men in the box and dare Purdue to run. On passing UM will send the 3 down linemen and 1-2 blitzers that will be different each time. The secondary will play press and hope the QB's don't see the receiver that does break free long. The Purdue play book may be a kitchen sink of everything. However, the base defense will be able to handle it and give nothing away prior to the snap. Worse the kitchen sink is going to run into the monkey wrench because the Dcoordinator has the initiative.
A lot of folks point to the AF game. People have to remember the military academies are weird and almost impossible to prepare for. The UM defense held AF to their worse offensive performance since 2012. If Purdue had sound lines and a good special teams I would think there is a chance. But your FG kickers have not done well.
The last reason why I think UM will win going away is what makes Speight uncomfortable cannot be done by Purdue. Purdue fans are right to point out Speight has regressed this year. This is mostly to Speight(like most QB's) having issues when he is made uncomfortable. The Purdue pass rush is not a strength. In fact it is kind of lame. Purdue in my opinion will not have the scheme or personal to rattle him. Speight will go back to his base mechanics and make some plays. I expect a conservative game plan because turnovers will make an upset possible. UM has the superior special teams. Your punter tends to out kick the coverage, and UM has a FG kicker who has nailed multiple long FG's including a 55+. Even if the offense spins its wheels there will be so much pressure, Purdue will wear out. Compounding this is you have a number of players hurt. UM's attrition so far is at their deepest positions WR, and RB.
If Brohm can turn Purdue around on such short notice, he is not long for Purdue and I would expect him to end up at Notre Dame. I hate boring games and applaud another Big10 school being a threat. It is just not going to be this year. If it does happen, then that is why we all love college football.
Young players make dumb plays sometimes. I agree that Michigan suffers some because they graduated/lost so much talent from last season.
Michigan had a number of blowout wins last year, such as vs. PSU, which was very impressive. But, as just stated, this Michigan team doesn't look like that Michigan team right now or even Harbaugh's first team at UM.
Most people wouldn't call Harbaugh's offensive scheme aggressive. It looks like a typical run-based Pro-style offense that has some excellent athletes at the skill positions. If a defense is not sound, those athletes can go off on people. As we saw with Cinci and AF, Michigan has not been getting the most out of its athletes on offense with Speight at QB this season.
I disagree in that UM can be very aggressive. Look at the number of 20+ rushing and passing plays. What has hurt Michigan is consistency and Speight missing is reads or missing his throws. The YPA is down mainly because of so many incompletions.
Case in point... nice phantom chop block and no call on the pass interference. Is it even fun needing the officials to babysit you to beat Purdue??!
Don't be a dick. That game was much closer than the score reflected. Sure, they underestimated our D, and would have really struggled to win that game regardless. But don't kid yourself. We did get a favorable whistle (though not to the extent that the most homer Boiler fans might believe) and there were a handful of plays that could have changed the complexion of that game. Notably the missed sack O'Korn muscled out of (which was a great play).
Purdue is going to be right there in the West. Their fans are excited, and should be.
