Kansas is good
- Thread starter Boilermaker
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It'll be interesting to see how it plays out from a strategy standpoint - Kansas is not too dissimilar to ISU. We played good perimeter defense and ISU still hit some tough shots, as Kansas would do. I think it's imperative Purdue gets established inside. Their fans are worried about fouls inside and a free throw advantage would certainly help. But if we don't get established inside, I think it'll be more of an opportunity for Kansas to play more offensive threats. If they have to have their big guys in, that takes some offensive threat off the floor.
#1 key for me is the same as it's been all year in big games: Turnovers. Keep them to 10 or less and I like our chances of being right there at the end with a chance. Give up more than that, especially live ball ones and it could get ugly.
#2 Draw fouls: I read somewhere this morning that there have been (3) less fouls called per game so far in the tournament versus the regular season (all of D1, not just PU games). I would like to see a tight whistle inside. If they are allowed to hack and push without getting fouls called it will be a problem. If we can get to the line and make them it not only helps with points, it gives us the pace we are looking for.
#3 Hit 3's: Make them at our yearly % and I really like our chances. It opens up everything inside and allows our offense to really click. Miss too many and it leads to run outs the other way and we don't want that kind of game pace.
#4 Timely defensive stops: We are not going to shut this team down. They are going to get 80 or close to it. But in every close game there is a critical possession or two where you need a stop. How we do in those critical times could be the difference.
#2 Draw fouls: I read somewhere this morning that there have been (3) less fouls called per game so far in the tournament versus the regular season (all of D1, not just PU games). I would like to see a tight whistle inside. If they are allowed to hack and push without getting fouls called it will be a problem. If we can get to the line and make them it not only helps with points, it gives us the pace we are looking for.
#3 Hit 3's: Make them at our yearly % and I really like our chances. It opens up everything inside and allows our offense to really click. Miss too many and it leads to run outs the other way and we don't want that kind of game pace.
#4 Timely defensive stops: We are not going to shut this team down. They are going to get 80 or close to it. But in every close game there is a critical possession or two where you need a stop. How we do in those critical times could be the difference.
KenPom predicts a 2 point win for Kansas, 79-77 with Purdue having a 44% chance of winning. I agree with the sentiment expressed by others that if we don't score in the 80s, we probably won't win. Still, I didn't think the prediction would be that close. But, KenPom has it as a nuetral court.
Vegas has KU as a 4 1/2 point favorite. So I think if you take KP and calculate some for "home court" they are about the same.
I would really really like to see Carsen get the start this game.
Mason - PJ
Graham - Carsen
Svi - Vince
Jackson - Dakota
Lucas - Swanigan
Carsen has the quickness to stay in front of Mason and Graham, so I'd love to see him out there. Feel like Graham would shred Cline. Vince on Jackson scares me, he just doesn't have the lateral quickness. Maybe Dakota can deny him the ball enough to slow him down?
Mason - PJ
Graham - Carsen
Svi - Vince
Jackson - Dakota
Lucas - Swanigan
Carsen has the quickness to stay in front of Mason and Graham, so I'd love to see him out there. Feel like Graham would shred Cline. Vince on Jackson scares me, he just doesn't have the lateral quickness. Maybe Dakota can deny him the ball enough to slow him down?
Totally agree. For drawing fouls, I don't think there needs to be a "tight" whistle, but Purdue needs to be effective inside and if they're getting themselves in good position and feeding the ball well, it should either result in less difficult baskets or contact that can draw fouls. Obviously for entry passes - that can be a turnover issue sometimes (either the actual pass or how the pass is handled).
Agree also on the 3s - and it also goes into not having scoring droughts. We were cold from 3 in the second half, although our shot selection was not bad as a whole.
If I were coaching this game, every time I could get a matchup of Jackson guarding VE I would have him drive hard to the basket. VE looks to be quite a bit stronger. Jackson in foul trouble would even this game out. From there, first team to 80 wins the game.
I think the Jackson match up will be a key component to the outcome of the game. If he's able to have the game he had against MSU, not gonna get a win.
It'll be interesting to see how we match up with them defensively. One thing about Kansas is there's not a ton of flexibility on their line-up - their rotation is basically 6 guys and there's a couple that get a few minutes.
I think it's as good of a match-up Purdue can have against Kansas. They don't have bigs that can step out and stretch our bigs, which is generally the type of team we have struggled with this year. They are going to have to match up with us.
Painter needs to come up with a plan to defend the PNR better and not let Biggie or Haas get isolated.
I think Purdue needs to pound it inside early and set the tone.
Painter needs to come up with a plan to defend the PNR better and not let Biggie or Haas get isolated.
I think Purdue needs to pound it inside early and set the tone.
So you have 3,000 tickets going to fans other than KU off the top. Leaves 15k seats allocated to NCAA people, corporate sponsors, and the general public. Let's say KU fans fill 10k-12k of those 15k. Still means the arena will be roughly 1/3 people not cheering for KU (making the assumption Michigan and Oregon fans will be pulling for us in a tight game) which is plenty to make this not a home game for them.
You do what Bob Knight used to do when playing a better team with a great player....you defend Jackson and shut him down and dare the others to defeat your best.
not too worried about the venue with this team. where they are doesn't seem to bother them one bit. gonna watch that spread. If it moves anymore towards KU I like that bet.
I'm confident with a junior Edwards on a freshman Jackson. VE has been lights out and I think that continues Thursday.
Did you read the article on Kansas smashing MSU? Self pointed out that Mason and Jackson refused to listen to his coaching that game and basically played any way they wanted...which was essentially was street ball. Mason and Jackson may have more talent( but not totally conceding that issue) but there is no question that Biggie and Vince are smarter and more disciplined in my opinion...with a heck of a lot of talent- as the rest of our team. Kansas got by playing street ball because MSU played poorly and absolutely NO defense. It doesn't matter how good a coach Self is if his team doesn't listen. Our team knows how smart our coaches are and how well those men prepare them for these games...This team listens and executes-thus 27 assists on 31 field goals. With that in mind, while it won't be a turkey shoot, I believe we can play with anyone left in the field if each our Boilermakers bring that "Purdue Mentality" they are wearing across their warm- ups to the game.
They have this guys who is also in the running for NPOY named Mason, my guess is he would gladly beat us. Like in all cases we need timely stops and to avoid stretched of time without a basket. Attack the hoop and get fouls down low, also force them into hero ball jump shots. We have as much of a chance of beating Kansas as anyone, I believe we can pull this off.
I agree with this. Games we have lost this season we're games where we let emotions take over and we failed to stick to our game plan. The Iowa State game was a good example of how losing focus can give up a lot of points and how keeping your head can overcome a talented team. The key against Kansas is the same as Iowa State. Take good shots to prevent run outs becuase they will eat us alive in that scenario. I was feeling pretty good about the way the refs have let teams play physical, yet in a few games it was obvious that the favored team received some questionable calls on phantom fouls. I hope we don't see that Thursday.
Should be a good game and I think if we keep our heads, we shall win.
