If we win the Big Ten title, we will have earned it.

[TC4THREE]

In my opinion, we have the toughest schedule of any of the contenders.

Looking at our conference schedule with the perspective of the current NET rankings. There's a huge drop off after Michigan that creates two tiers. Top 10 teams. Bottom 4 teams. Below are the NET rankings with Purdue's games against each team in parenthesis.

1. Purdue
9. Iowa (H&A)
18. Wisconsin (H&A)
19. Michigan State (Away)
28. Ohio State (Home)
36. Minnesota (Away)
42. Northwestern (H&A)
48. Illinois (H&A)
56. Indinia (H&A)
63. Michigan (H&A)

137. Penn State (Away)
155. Maryland (Home)
192. Nebraska (Home)
217. Rutgers (H&A)

Purdue Schedule
Top tier games - 15 (7 home, 8 away)
Lower tier games - 5 (3 home, 2 away)

Top Tier Team Schedules T1 games (T1 Away Games) - T2 games
Purdue 15(8)-5
Iowa 13(6)-7
Wisconsin 14(7)-6
Michigan State 14(7)-6
Ohio State 13(6)-7
Minnesota 15(7)-5
Northwestern 13(7)-7
Illinois 14(7)-6
Indinia 13(7)-7
Michigan 14(7)-6

So amongst the contenders only Minnesota plays as many top tier teams as we do and nobody plays as many of the top tier on the road as we do if I counted correctly. Both Iowa and Ohio State have a 2-game advantage as they only play 13 games against the top tier and only 6 of those are on the road.

Maybe over time we see some of these "contenders" drift towards a middle tier or the lower tier and things look a little different. Will be interesting to see it play out. I'm thinking it takes 16-4 to win at least a share this season.

 

[charlespig]

Agreed. I've done similar using KP rankings, although they rank it a bit differently. Maryland (#52) is the lowest of the T1 group, while {Minny, PSU, Rutgers, Nebraska} range from #90 to #103 are in the T2 group, so basically flipping Minny and Maryland compared to the NET.

Kenpom uses Tier A and Tier B games (A = Top 50, venue-adjusted; B = #50 to #100, also venue-adjusted). Purdue 14 A games and 4 B games, where as Indinia has 14 A and 2 B, and MSU has 13 A and 4 B games. We will certainly be battle-tested this season.

 

[BoilerAndy]

In my opinion, we have the toughest schedule of any of the contenders.

Looking at our conference schedule with the perspective of the current NET rankings. There's a huge drop off after Michigan that creates two tiers. Top 10 teams. Bottom 4 teams. Below are the NET rankings with Purdue's games against each team in parenthesis.

1. Purdue
9. Iowa (H&A)
18. Wisconsin (H&A)
19. Michigan State (Away)
28. Ohio State (Home)
36. Minnesota (Away)
42. Northwestern (H&A)
48. Illinois (H&A)
56. Indinia (H&A)
63. Michigan (H&A)

137. Penn State (Away)
155. Maryland (Home)
192. Nebraska (Home)
217. Rutgers (H&A)

Purdue Schedule
Top tier games - 15 (7 home, 8 away)
Lower tier games - 5 (3 home, 2 away)

Top Tier Team Schedules T1 games (T1 Away Games) - T2 games
Purdue 15(8)-5
Iowa 13(6)-7
Wisconsin 14(7)-6
Michigan State 14(7)-6
Ohio State 13(6)-7
Minnesota 15(7)-5
Northwestern 13(7)-7
Illinois 14(7)-6
Indinia 13(7)-7
Michigan 14(7)-6

So amongst the contenders only Minnesota plays as many top tier teams as we do and nobody plays as many of the top tier on the road as we do if I counted correctly. Both Iowa and Ohio State have a 2-game advantage as they only play 13 games against the top tier and only 6 of those are on the road.

Maybe over time we see some of these "contenders" drift towards a middle tier or the lower tier and things look a little different. Will be interesting to see it play out. I'm thinking it takes 16-4 to win at least a share this season.

Indinia fans will be blushing pink with excitement when they learn that Purdue has a post with them in the "top tier" of the Big Ten. It's proof of how far they have risen since Woodsen arrived.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Nice breakdown TC!

 

[indyogb]

Can we just skip the game at the barn? A forfeit might be better than whatever catastrophe awaits in that house of horrors.

 

[BoilerAndy]

Can we just skip the game at the barn? A forfeit might be better than whatever catastrophe awaits in that house of horrors.

So many bad things have happened at Minnesota, my first reaction was, "Hmmm, something to consider." Maybe a brief Covid outbreak to "postpone" the game so that it isn't recorded as an L.

 

[Lee3370]

The fact we dont play ourselves and several contenders have to play us twice means we cant have the toughest schedule.

The Big Ten runs through W Lafayette this year, its a good thing, and who ever wins the big ten in any year earns it because we are always the deepest conference year and year out if not top heavy every year.

But Purdue is a beast this year, we all know that, and thus cant have the toughest schedule because we are not on our schedule, lol

 

[TC4THREE]

So many bad things have happened at Minnesota, my first reaction was, "Hmmm, something to consider." Maybe a brief Covid outbreak to "postpone" the game so that it isn't recorded as an L.

I get some of our bad history there, even with wins. But in looking to our path to a Big Ten championship, a win there is badly needed. Again, assuming 16 wins is needed, our path might look like:

10-0 at home
Win at Rutgers
Win at Penn State
Win at Northwestern
Win at Minnesota
Win at least 2 of the following: at Iowa, at Wisconsin, at MSU, at Illinois, at Indiana, at Michigan.

Obviously, if we drop a home game and/or lose a game to one of my projected away wins, we'd have to win an additional game from that tougher, by my estimation anyways, group of road games.

 

[TC4THREE]

The fact we dont play ourselves and several contenders have to play us twice means we cant have the toughest schedule.

The Big Ten runs through W Lafayette this year, its a good thing, and who ever wins the big ten in any year earns it because we are always the deepest conference year and year out if not top heavy every year.

But Purdue is a beast this year, we all know that, and thus cant have the toughest schedule because we are not on our schedule, lol

That's true. Other teams might look at this differently with us being on a different tier.

 

[DAG10]

In my opinion, we have the toughest schedule of any of the contenders.

Looking at our conference schedule with the perspective of the current NET rankings. There's a huge drop off after Michigan that creates two tiers. Top 10 teams. Bottom 4 teams. Below are the NET rankings with Purdue's games against each team in parenthesis.

1. Purdue
9. Iowa (H&A)
18. Wisconsin (H&A)
19. Michigan State (Away)
28. Ohio State (Home)
36. Minnesota (Away)
42. Northwestern (H&A)
48. Illinois (H&A)
56. Indinia (H&A)
63. Michigan (H&A)

137. Penn State (Away)
155. Maryland (Home)
192. Nebraska (Home)
217. Rutgers (H&A)

Purdue Schedule
Top tier games - 15 (7 home, 8 away)
Lower tier games - 5 (3 home, 2 away)

Top Tier Team Schedules T1 games (T1 Away Games) - T2 games
Purdue 15(8)-5
Iowa 13(6)-7
Wisconsin 14(7)-6
Michigan State 14(7)-6
Ohio State 13(6)-7
Minnesota 15(7)-5
Northwestern 13(7)-7
Illinois 14(7)-6
Indinia 13(7)-7
Michigan 14(7)-6

So amongst the contenders only Minnesota plays as many top tier teams as we do and nobody plays as many of the top tier on the road as we do if I counted correctly. Both Iowa and Ohio State have a 2-game advantage as they only play 13 games against the top tier and only 6 of those are on the road.

Maybe over time we see some of these "contenders" drift towards a middle tier or the lower tier and things look a little different. Will be interesting to see it play out. I'm thinking it takes 16-4 to win at least a share this season.

I am glad that you spent the time to do the analysis...I thought at a glance that Purdue had one of the tougher schedules, and, this confirms that.

I think 16 wins absolutely wins the conference, as I just don't know who else is going to win 16 in that I am not sure how truly good the other teams are...Illinois maybe? I thought Iowa was maybe a sleeper, but, don't see them going 16-2 the rest of the way. Wisconsin is better than believed maybe, and, I definitely think MSU is. I think Purdue is the best team...pretty clearly...and that there is some pretty good balance after that.

Purdue always seems to draw the worst teams just once...and it is the case generally this year.

 

[Ttff131]

Actually our practice scrimmage every week is probably harder than the schedule 🚂🚂🚂🏀😅